Looks like we added a grad transfer. Anybody watch any Brown games?

Really nice feature by Rico Cooney on Spencer Brown. Thanks Rico.

Here is an article that lets you get to know Brandon Jordan a little bit better.

Here is my article on how Tucker feels his restructured defensive coaching staff.

Now WMU only has 1 and they were outstanding but watching Michigan and Minnesota loaded with prospects make me long for the days MSU was putting guys in the pros year after year.

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For what it's worth. I don't know enough about this team to have an opinion.

We got a few comments from Jay Johnson.

This story is more of a table setter on what's going on with the OL for spring football.

I suspect we will get Chris Kapilovic for more updates on how these individuals are doing after a scrimmage or two.

I am sure that every MSU fan who comes into any contact with Wolverines this week has heard the stat that Michigan now has 23 NCAA Tournament wins in the past 10 years, while MSU has but 16 wins. Sadly, this is a fact even if it is both horrifying and disgusting. The Wolverines certainly have enjoyed more success in March than the Spartans over this span.

That said, here are some additional facts over the past 10 years that your Wolverine friends perhaps failed to mention

MSU has more total basketball win (254 to 247)
MSU has more Big Ten wins (126 to 118)
MSU has more Big Ten regular season titles (3 to 2)
MSU has more Big Ten tournament titles (3 to 2)
MSU earned a higher seed in the Big Ten tournament in 8 of the 10 seasons
MSU advanced farther in the BTT than Michigan in 6 of the 9 tournaments
MSU finished ranked higher in Kenpom in 6 of the 10 seasons
MSU never missed the NCAA Tournament in that span (while Michigan did)
MSU leads the head-to-head match-up (12 to 9)
MSU has the same number of Final Fours (two each)

So, while Michigan's success in the Tournament relative to MSU is not up for debate, it is literally the only category that I can think of where the Wolverines can claim any advantage.

Michigan fans attempting to dog MSU fans about their Tournament record over the past 10 years would be a little bit similar to MSU fans making fun of Michigan's poor record in Bowl Games over the last 10 years (which is 1-7 compared to MSU's record of 6-2). Of course, in order for this analogy to hold, Michigan would have to have an edge over the Spartans in total football wins (they don't), Big Ten Titles (nope), and head-to-head (sorry).

The fact that the Wolverines are rallying around this stat and their Sweet 16 streak is actually pretty obvious: it's all that they have... in either sport.

All things considered, would MSU fans trade the complete results over the past 10 years in either sport with the Wolverines? I sure wouldn't. Would I prefer to have done better in March? Absolutely. But the complete package in East Lansing has been better over the past decade all the way around.

Furthermore, which program (in both football and basketball) would be the smart one to bet on to have more success over the next 10 years? On the gridiron, I would absolutely rather have MSU's next decade. Mel Tucker versus Jimbo? I like those odds. As for hoops, in all likelihood, Tom Izzo will be in retirement 10 years from now. Still, I would take the hall-of-famer (and his hand-picked successor) over the dude who walked across the street from his anger management class to the Big Ten Tournament any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

So, chins up MSU fans, the past is not nearly as bad as your maize-and-blue clad neighbor or coworker would have you believe. Furthermore, the future is most likely brighter as well.

Go Green.

Here is my story on Marco Coleman

anyone see this?
Pretty disgusting but hilarious too i have to admit I had a laugh.

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Not sure how I feel about this - in part, they did get the first call correct, but it just happened after the game and they had awarded the trophy. I guess Minnesota-State still won either way.


This was critical though, because Bemidji isn't in the NCAAs and wasn't going to be unless they won this game.

Clearly an error in replay, but to go back nearly an hour after the game finished isn't a good look.

I would not say that it went well...



But this image is a KEEPER.

I got a real bad feeling about the ncaas. I want to vomit

On Tuesday, I introduced my method to identify how to spot the most likely upsets on the NCAA Tournament bracket. This analysis will go a long way toward making some informed office pool decisions. Today, in part two of this series, I wanted to approach the analysis from the point of view of each region and the tournament as a whole. In other words, yesterday I identified the pieces, and today I will tell you how to assemble them.

Before we dive into each region, there are two other figures that will add context to the analysis. The first one shows the average number of upsets to expect in each round and overall.


Figure 1: Number of projected upsets per round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament based on a Monte Carlo Simulation and compared to the historical value and the average of the series of historical simulations.

Figure 1 shows three sets of data (two simulations and one actual measurement). The blue bar shows the number of upsets projected in my simulation of the 2022 tournament. The red bars show the average number of upsets per round in the set of simulations that I have performed on the last 19 tournaments. The green bar shows the actual average number of upsets back to 1985 when the tournament expanded to 64 teams.

As we can see, all three sets of data show the same trend. The fact that the simulated results match the actual results so well is another indicator that my methodology is robust. That said, Figure 1 also gives the standard deviations, which suggests that there still is a lot potential variance in these numbers.

While there most likely will be between eight and nine first round upsets, there is only a two-thirds chance that there will be between six and 11 upsets. There is also only a five percent chance of either more than 13 upsets or less than four.

The second piece of data had to do with the make-up of the Final Four. In the typical Selection Sunday prediction shows, it is common for the analysts to make a very “chalk-like” prediction of up to three No. 1 seeds in the final weekend. But, in reality, this rarely happens. Figure 2 gives the actual average make-up of the Final Four, based on historical data.


Figure 2: Historical make-up of the Final Four, based on seeds.

The data here is best summarized by looking at the distribution of the highest seed, the second-highest seed, the third seed and the lowest seed. As we can see, there is almost always at least one No. 1 seed, but the odds of two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four are just above 50-50. The third-highest seed is most often a No. 2 seed, but the lowest seed is almost always a No. 3 seed or lower.

The 2021 NCAA Tournament was a perfect example, as No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 1 Baylor, No. 2 Houston and No. 11 UCLA were the last four teams standing.

Region by Region Analysis​

Let’s now move on to look at each region in more detail, starting in the West. In each case, I will present a table of data that summarizes each team’s odds to advance through each round of the NCAA Tournament, based on the projected point spreads for any possible matchup.

In addition, each table contains a block of data that compares each team’s Kenpom efficiency and round-by-round odds to that of a historically average team with the same seed. This gives a clear indication of the relative strength or weakness of each team in each region.

West Region​

Table 1: 2022 NCAA Tournament West Region Odds.


With overall top seed and tournament-favorite Gonzaga sitting on the top of the bracket, the West is the hardest of the four regions. The Zags grade out with over a 50 percent chance to advance to the Final Four.

At a glance, Table 1 reveals that only No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 3 Texas Tech, No. 9 Memphis, No. 13 Vermont and No. 16 Georgia State are stronger seeds than the historical averages. As a result, No. 3-seeded Texas Tech checks in with the second-best odds to win the region. It is also notable that No. 5 UCONN has better odds to reach the Final Four than No. 4 Arkansas.

As for No. 7 Michigan State, the Spartans’ first game with No. 10 Davidson is a virtual toss-up and Michigan State’s odds to advance to the Sweet 16 (by most likely ending Mike Krzyzewski career at No. 2 Duke) are about one-in-six. The Spartans have about a five percent chance to make the regional final and only a one percent chance to reach Tom Izzo’s ninth Final Four. Michigan State’s national title odds are slightly better than 1-in-1,500.

In the first two rounds of the West Region, my metrics suggest the following upsets:

• No. 10 Davidson over No. 7 Michigan State (don’t @ me. It’s just #math)
• No. 9 Memphis over No. 8 Boise State.
• No. 5 UCONN over No. 4 Arkansas

This would set up the following Sweet 16 matchups:

• No. 1 Gonzaga versus No. 5 UCONN
• No. 2 Duke versus No. 3 Texas Tech

Based on the Table above, Texas Tech would likely be favored to beat Duke and advance to the regional final, where the Red Raiders would meet (and I project lose to) No. 1 Gonzaga.

As a final note on the West, if you are looking for a potential Cinderella to make a surprising run to Sweet 16, No. 13 Vermont looks like the best bet.

South Region​

The odds table for the South Region is shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: 2022 NCAA Tournament South Region odds.


Overall, the South Region is in a virtual dead heat with the East Region as the second-most challenging bracket. No. 1 Arizona is the favorite to win the region with odds of just below 30 percent, but No. 3 Tennessee, No. 5 Houston and No. 2 Villanova all have odds between 16 and 21 percent. Note that No. 4 Illinois’ Final Four odds are remarkably small at just four percent.

As for first-round and second-round upsets, the data suggests the following:

• No. 10 Loyola Chicago over No. 7 Ohio State
• No. 9 TCU over No. 8 Seton Hall
• No. 11 Michigan over No. 6 Colorado State
• No. 5 Houston over No. 4 Illinois
• No. 10 Loyola Chicago over No. 2 Villanova

Note that this analysis does not consider some of the injury information coming out of Ann Arbor, which could certainly impact that game considerably. Either way, I project that No. 11 Michigan would lose in the second round to No. 3 Tennessee, even if the Wolverines can survive the first round.

My analysis yesterday did not make any clear recommendations for a second-round exit from a No. 2 seed, but the potential matchup between Loyola Chicago and Villanova has the best odds and is therefore my pick. This also implies that the Ramblers are my double-digit Cinderella picks for the South Region.

This would set up the following Sweet 16 matchups:

• No. 1 Arizona versus No. 5 Houston
• No. 3 Tennessee versus No. 10 Loyola Chicago

My analysis of the South Region Sweet 16 has Tennessee advancing to the region final, but it also loves Houston’s chances against Arizona. Houston finished the season ranked No. 4 in Kenpom and as a result, the method that I use has the Cougars beating both Arizona and Tennessee to make its second consecutive Final Four.

That said, Houston is also dealing with some injury issues and I am not sure that my analysis can be completely trusted. Thus, I am calling an audible on my own analysis. I will take No. 1 Arizona to beat No. 5 Houston, but I will also pick No. 3 Tennessee to win the region. It is historically unlikely to see the top-two overall seeds advance to the Final Four and this pick just feels right.

Midwest Region​

The odds table for the Midwest Region is shown below in Table 3.

Table 3: 2022 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Odds.


The Midwest Region grades out as the easiest of the four regions and at a glance, Table 3 gives a hint as to why. The top-four seeds in the region are all historically below average. As a result, No. 1 Kansas still has the best odds to advance to the Final Four at 29 percent. No. 2 Auburn is right behind the Jayhawks at 28 percent. Notably, No. 5 Iowa has the third-best odds at 19 percent.

As for first-round and second-round upsets, the data suggests the following:

• No. 13 South Dakota State over No. 4 Providence
• No. 6 LSU over No. 3 Wisconsin

That said, if a No. 1 seed is to fall in the second round, No. 8 San Diego State upsetting No. 1 Kansas seems to be the most likely. I am not making that prediction, but it is tempting.

I then have the Midwest Sweet 16 as follows:

• No. 1 Kansas versus No. 5 Iowa
• No. 2 Auburn versus No. 6 LSU

If I follow my methodology to the letter, the numbers tell me that No. 5 Iowa is going to upset both No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Auburn to reach its first Final Four since 1980. That said, I just can’t bring myself to believe that Hawkeyes — with the 78th-ranked defense — is strong enough to win four tournament games in a row.

Therefore, my official pick to win the Midwest just reverts to the team with the best odds, which is No. 1 Kansas. I don’t feel great about that, but it is what it is. In many years, there is one region that basically descends into chaos. If that happens in 2022, the Midwest Region looks to be the most likely candidate.

Also note that the best bet for a double-digit Cinderella in the Midwest is No. 13 South Dakota State.

East Region​

Finally, the odds table for the East Region is shown below in Table 4.

Table 4: 2022 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region odds.


In this case, the East Region appears to have a somewhat weak No. 1 seed in Baylor, but strong No. 2 seed in Kentucky as well as a strong No. 4 seed in UCLA. These three teams all have between an 18 percent and a 27 percent chance to win the region.

My first-round and second-round upsets picks in the East are as follows:

• No. 10 San Francisco over No. 7 Murray State
• No. 11 Virginia Tech over No. 6 Texas

No. 11 Virginia Tech would also be a potential upset pick winner over No. 3 Purdue in the Round of 32. For this reason, the Hokies are the most likely double-digit Cinderella team in the East Region. I am also tempted to take Indiana over Saint Mary’s as my only No. 5 seed to lose in the first round, but I am going to go out on a limb and project that all four No. 5 seeds will advance.

With all chalk in the second round, we are left with the following Sweet 16 matchups:

• No. 1 Baylor versus No. 4 UCLA
• No. 2 Kentucky versus No. 3 Purdue

In this case, my methodology clearly projects that UCLA will upset Baylor, but that Bruins will fail to advance to their second consecutive Final Four when they face No. 2 Kentucky, which I am picking to win the East.

Final Analysis​

Based on this analysis, I am projecting a Final Four consisting of the following teams:

• No. 1 Gonzaga versus No. 2 Kentucky
• No. 2 Kansas versus No. 3 Tennessee

The metrics strongly favor Gonzaga, as the tables above suggest. The Zags do have the best odds to win the national title. That said, I am going to go with a final of No. 2 Kentucky over No. 1 Kansas. Your mileage may vary.

As a final note of justification of this projection, I will comment that 17 of the past 20 national champions have entered the NCAA Tournament ranked in the top-six of Kenpom’s adjusted efficiency margin. The current top six are, in order:

1. Gonzaga (West No. 1 seed)
2. Arizona (South No. 1 seed)
3. Kentucky (East No. 2 seed)
4. Houston (South No. 5 seed)
5. Baylor (East No. 1 seed)
6. Kansas (Midwest No. 1 seed)

Two of those teams are from mid-major conferences (Gonzaga and Houston) where the level of competition casts some doubt as to whether the metrics can be used to fairly evaluate the teams. Last year’s Final Four, where Baylor blew out both teams still sticks in my mind in this regard.

Furthermore, Baylor has some injuries issues, while Arizona comes from a weaker league and has a first-year head coach. These facts alone are enough to give me pause to pick either team to win it all. That simply leaves us with Kentucky and Kansas, my picks for the national title game.

That is all this year’s analysis. Embrace the madness and Go Green.

(OK folks! Here is part 1 of my analysis. As many of you know, I do publish my analyses on another site, but this is a special "preview" for Spartanmagers. The official article should go live a little later tonight. I will write part 2 tonight, but this should get everyone started.)

For college basketball junkies, this is the best week of the year. Selection Sunday through the end of the first weekend of NCAA basketball tournament is the greatest eight-day span on the sports calendar, and 2022 marks the first time since 2019 that the NCAA Tournament will be “back to normal.”

But even casual fans of college basketball go through annual ritual of filling out a bracket in an attempt to predict which crazy upsets will occur during the first two days, which teams will make the Final Four, who will finally cut down the nets on that first Monday of April and everything in-between.

While everyone has their own methods and strategies for picking which teams will advance, I have developed my own system over the years that uses a combination of math and historical probabilities. My method is certainly not foolproof, but it does provide some useful tips that have led to some office pool success over the years.

It helped me to virtually nail the Final Four in 2019 and it correctly predicted that No. 3 Texas would not survive their first-round test last year against No. 14 Abeline Christian. This year, I have crunched the numbers once again and I am happy to share the results with the class.

Methodology Overview​

Last year, I presented a more detailed overview of my methodology. Briefly, I made a simple observation several years ago which forms the foundation for the analysis that I am about the present. That observation is:

When it comes to NCAA Tournament upsets, the behavior is exactly the same as in regular season games. The odds are largely predictable based on Vegas points spreads and by tools that can predict point spreads, such as Kenpom efficiency margin data.

All of my analysis of college basketball odds is based on this same premise. Kenpom efficiency data can be used to assign probabilities to any arbitrary basketball match-up. Knowing this, the full season and any tournament can be mathematically modeled and its odds can be calculated.

My favorite plot to highlight this fact is shown below.


Figure 1: Correlation between NCAA Tournament upsets and the odds predicted using Kenpom efficiency data.

The figure summarizes the upset frequencies of some of the most common seed pairings that occur in the NCAA Tournament. As we can see, the actual frequencies correlate extremely well with what we would expect based on the win probabilities derived from either the actual Vegas point spreads or Kenpom efficiency data.

Just in case there is still some doubt about the value of using Kenpom data to project point spreads, Figure 2 shows the current correlation for all of the first-round games, based on Tuesday’s lines as published on Draft Kings. Note that the left-hand panel is the full set of data, while the right-hand panel is an enlarged view of the data for the games where the spread is 10 points or less.


Figure 2: Correlation between the Vegas lines and the point differentials predicted using Kenpom efficiency margins. The right panel shows an enlarged view of the full data set.

As we can see, the correlation is very strong, with only a handful of games differing by more than a point or two.

Upset Odds and Trends​

A careful analysis of Figure 2 will already start to give some hints as to where some of the more likely upsets will occur. Are there any pairings above that look to have a tighter spread than one might expect for that seed pairing? Naturally, those are the games to put on upset alert.

A better way to visualize these upset odds are the plot them as a group relative to each other and to the historical odds of an upset for that particular pairing. Figure 3 shows this analysis for the full set of first round games.


Figure 3: Odds for the higher seeded teams to win for each seed pairing, relative to the historical odds (shown in blue) for all first round games.

Using this figure, it is easy to see where the most likely upsets will occur. If a game falls below the blue line (the historical odds that the higher seeded team wins) an upset is more probable. If a game is above the blue line, it is less probable. That said, the odds shown at the right are still the “true” odds for the upset.

The left side of Figure 3 shows the data for the top four seeds in each region. As a general rule, there is only one or two “major” upset of this nature in any given tournament. There were a total of four of these upsets in 2021, but that was the most in Tournament history. That said, there have been only five tournaments since 1985 where all of the top four seeds have survived the first round (1994, 2000, 2004, 2007, and 2017). Therefore, it is quite likely that at least one of those teams will fall.

An upset to No. 1 or No. 2 seeds are quite rare and unpredictable. Based on Figure 3, I would not expect one in 2022. But there are a total of four possible upsets on the No.3 and No. 4 lines that stick out from Figure 3. No.3 Wisconsin, No. 4 Illinois, No. 4 Arkansas, and especially No. 4 Providence are all more likely to be upset than a typical team of their seed, based on historical trends.

If we dig into the numbers, the reasons are clear. In the 2022 tournament, the No. 4 seeded teams appear to be weaker than normal, historically, while the No. 13 seeds are stronger. This is a classic recipe for an upset.

As for Wisconsin, it is not that Colgate is a particularly strong No. 14 seed. In fact, they are a below average No. 14 seed. The problem is that Wisconsin is a historically poor No. 3 seed, based on their current Kenpom efficiency margin. In my analysis of the Big Ten season, Wisconsin consistently graded out as the luckiest team in the Big Ten. Do not be surprised if they do not stay for long in the Big Dance.

The right side of Figure 3 shows the data for the first-round games involving teams seeded No. 5 to No. 12. This is where the bulk of the upsets (relative to seeding) occur in any given tournament. Once again, the Figure gives insight into which upsets are more probable.

Interestingly, while No. 4 seeds seem to be in quite a bit of danger in the first round, the No. 5 seeds look fairly safe. Only St. Mary’s College — who will play the winner of the Indiana / Wyoming game in the play-in round — looks somewhat vulnerable. Considering that the winner of the play-in game tends to have success in the first round and the fact that at least one No. 5 seed has lost in the first round of 31 of the past 36 tournaments, this might be a good bet.

As the blue line in Figure 3 shows, teams seeded No. 6 or No. 7 tend to get upset 40 to 45 percent of the time. These games are typically close to toss-ups. In 2022, five of those eight contests look riper than usual for an upset. Warning, the conclusions here are not great for Michigan State fans.

Based on this analysis, No. 7 Michigan State is officially on upset alert versus No. 10 Davidson. Furthermore, No. 11 Michigan also stands a very good shot to “upset” No. 6 Colorado State. As Figure 2 shows, the Wolverines are actually favored in this game. My metrics suggest an upset pick is in order in both cases. You, dear reader, will simply need to pick with your conscience.

As for the other potential upsets, Kenpom has No. 10 Loyola-Chicago favored over No. 7 Ohio State and No. 10 San Fransisco favored over Murray State. Those are both good bets. No. 6 Texas also looks vulnerable against No. 11 Virginia Tech.

For the No. 8 and No. 9 seed games, these are historically true toss-up games, as Figure 3 suggests. In this case, it is best to consult the Vegas line, which currently has No. 9 Memphis favored over No. 8 Boise State and which has No. 9 TCU as a pick’em versus No. 8 Seton Hall. Those are the two most likely “upsets” in that group of four games.

Vegas spreads are a useful tool for the first-round games. However, they are not available for any games in subsequent rounds. Fortunately, Kenpom data can be used to project these lines and win probabilities, which still allows for further analysis as shown below in Figure 4.


Figure 4: Odds for the higher seeded teams to win for each seed pairing, relative to the historical odds (shown in blue) for rounds two to four, based on Kenpom efficiency margin data.

The left side of Figure 4 compares the odds for the higher seeds to win in the second round of the tournament.

No. 1 seeds get bounced in the second round roughly every-other year, on average. Illinois experienced that in 2021, but all the No. 1 seeds advanced in 2019. Based on Figure 4, the most vulnerable No. 1 seed is Kansas, but there is still a 70 percent chance that the Jayhawks survive until the second weekend.

In general, about two-thirds of all No. 2 seeds advance to the Sweet 16 and it is quite rare that all four survive the first weekend in any given tournament. That said, there is no clear No. 2 seed that appears vulnerable in 2022. I can think of one No. 2 seed that I would like to see lose to a certain Green and White-clad No. 7 seed (if they make it that far) but I will save that analysis for later in the week.

As for the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds, history tells us that about half of them will likely advance to the Sweet 16. Figure 4 gives some strong hints as to which of these seeds are more likely to be upset, and the news is not great for some Big Ten fans.

Interestingly, there are four potential second round games involving No. 3 or No. 4 seeds where the lower seeded team are projected to be favored in the second round. No. 6 LSU would be favored over No. 3 Wisconsin, No. 4 Houston is projected to be favored over No. 5 Illinois, and No. 5 UCONN is a likely pick’em versus No. 4 Arkansas. Furthermore, No. 5 Iowa is projected to be a big favorite over No. 4 Providence.

Naturally, this assumes that all of the No. 4 seeds win their first round match-ups, which Figure 3 suggests is not likely. Also note that No. 3 seed Purdue may be slightly vulnerable to No. 6 Texas, if the Longhorns can beat Virginia Tech in the first round.

Finally, the right side of Figure 4 presents the same data for the potential match-ups in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. This analysis does assume that the top seeds all advance, which is unlikely, but it does provide some hints as to which teams are more or less likely to advance to the Final Four.

For example, No. 1 Baylor looks potentially vulnerable to No. 4 UCLA in the Sweet 16, and even more vulnerable in a potential Regional Final showdown with No. 2 Kentucky. Figure 4 also suggests that No. 3 Tennessee and No. 3 Texas Tech both might be favored over No. 2 Villanova and No. 2 Duke in their respective regions. No. 1 Kansas would also be only a slight favorite over No. 2 Auburn in a potential Midwest Regional Final.

The analysis above will hopefully provide a good start in filling out a bracket. But, exactly how many upsets should we expect? How is each individual Region likely to shake out? Stay tuned for Part Two, coming soon.

After a total of 140 conference games stretching over three months, the 2021-2022 Big Ten men’s basketball regular season is now officially complete. Congratulations to Wisconsin and Illinois for surviving this gauntlet to emerge as the 2022 Big Ten basketball regular season co-champions.

For the Michigan State Spartans, the 11-9 regular season conference record and seventh-place finish certainly feels like a disappointment, especially considering that the Spartans had sole control of first place seven games into conference play. Michigan State beat Wisconsin on the road on Jan. 21, but only posted a 5-8 record following that big win.

With the regular season in the books, the postseason beckons. Before we fully move on, let’s take a quick look back on the numbers from the regular season. Then, let’s take a look at the odds for the Big Ten Tournament. Finally, let’s try to get a sneak peek at where the Spartans will end up in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

Regular Season Overview​

Table 1 below shows the final enhanced Big Ten standings for the 2021-22 season.

Table 1: Enhanced final Big Ten standings.


I have added a column to the far right of the table that summarizes the final strength of schedule impact for each team. The numbers in this column are derived from the number of expected wins for an average Big Ten team if they would have played the team in question’s schedule. In this case, I am comparing that number for each team to the overall average value for the conference as a whole.

Essentially, this calculation shows the relative worth of each team’s full conference schedule in terms of actual wins and losses. For example, Ohio State’s schedule (the conference’s easiest) was worth a little over half of a win (+0.62) over the full 20 games, relative to the conference average. Nebraska’s schedule cost the Cornhuskers roughly half of win (-0.53) relative to the average.

What is notable here is that the impact of “luck” (also known as “grit,” which is basically a measure of a team’s ability to win or lose close games) is much higher than the impact of schedule. Wisconsin, for example, won three-and-a-half games more than expected due simply to “luck,” but less than a quarter of a game due to the Badgers’ schedule.

As for Michigan State, the final analysis shows that the Spartans were slightly above average in both luck (+0.35) and schedule (+0.20), but the cumulative impact was just over half of a win.

Big Ten Tournament Odds​

On Sunday evening, the Big Ten Conference officially released the bracket for the Big Ten Tournament.

No. 7 seed Michigan State will take the floor on Thursday night at 6:30 p.m. against No. 10 Maryland in the second round of the conference tournament. If the Spartans win, they will face No. 2 Wisconsin in the quarterfinals on Friday night at 6:30 p.m. Both games will be televised on the Big Ten Network.

Based on this bracket, it is straightforward to calculate the odds for each team to advance through each round by using Kenpom efficiency data to project point spreads and win probabilities for each potential match-up. Table 2 below gives the results of this series of calculations.

Table 2: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament.


In addition to the usual probabilities, I have converted the odds for each team to win the tournament (in the “Final” column) to the equivalent money line value. I have also added the current Las Vegas money line odds (courtesy of Draft Kings as of March 8) for comparison. Finally, I made the “return-on-investment” calculation for a $100 bet on each team where I assume that my calculated odds are correct. (Note that some of these lines have already moved. As a general rule, if the money line that you can get is more positive than the number that I calculate in the "equivalent odds" column, the ROI, based on my assumptions, will be positive.)

There are several observations that we can make from this table. First, the odds calculated using Kenpom data correlate very well with the Vegas odds, but these projections do not correlate well to the actual tournament seeds. No. 3 seed Purdue has the best overall odds (+160). No. 5 seed Iowa has the same odds as No. 1 seed Illinois (+370), and No. 2 seed Wisconsin has only the fourth best odds at +800.

No. 4 seed Rutgers has only the seventh best odds (+1500), which is slightly worse than No. 8 seed Michigan’s odds (+1200). It is notable that the three teams that graded out as the luckiest in the conference (Illinois, Wisconsin and Rutgers) all have longer than expected odds in the Big Ten Tournament relative to their actual seed.

Michigan State’s money line odds of +2500 are almost exactly what is predicted based on the odds that I have calculated (+2513). The Spartans’ chances of winning the tournament title are just below four percent.

As for the return-on-investment calculations, the money lines are almost all showing a negative ROI. It is almost like Vegas has the system set up such that it consistently makes money. That said, a pick of Iowa winning the Big Ten Tournament title looks to have the highest value. If one is a more adventurous investor, a bet on Northwestern is interesting or even a bet on the Spartans would not be crazy, based simply on the math.

Looking Ahead to the Big Dance​

While contemplating a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament is nice, postseason success and failure is primarily defined by how a team does in the “Big Dance,” otherwise known as the NCAA Tournament. We are now less than a week away from Selection Sunday when the final bracket will be released.

While no one can be certain at this point which seed, location and opponent the Spartans will draw, we can get an idea based on a survey of the over 100 online brackets that are posted by various professional and amateur “bracketologists.” The website bracketmatrix.com collects and publishes this data on a daily basis. As of now, Figure 1 shows a summary of which seed Michigan State is projected to earn, based on this data.


Figure 1: Summary of the projected NCAA Tournament seed for Michigan State, as collected by the bracket matrix website as of March 8.

Technically, the Spartans’ seed ranges from No. 6 to No. 11. That said, Michigan State’s seed is either No. 7, No. 8 or No. 9 in all but three of the online brackets. Right now, the Spartans are projected to play in the No. 8/No. 9 game in the first round in 75 percent of the online brackets. If this projection winds up being correct, this means that Michigan State would almost certainly face a No. 1 seed in the second round, if the Spartans can advance that far.

Michigan State’s final seed in the NCAA Tournament will also depend on how the Spartans perform this week at the Big Ten Tournament. If the Spartans lose on Thursday to Maryland, it seems likely that Michigan State will drop slightly on the seed list to a No. 9 or even a No. 10 seed. Note that slipping to a No. 10 seed would not be all bad, as it would allow the Green and White to potentially avoid a second-round game with a No. 1 seed.

If the Spartans beat Maryland and then lose to Wisconsin, my best guess is that Michigan State will hold steady as a No. 8 seed with a chance at a No. 7 seed, depending on the overall landscape and the mood of the Selection Committee. If the Spartans are able to spring an upset (or two...or three) in the Big Ten Tournament, the expected seed is likely to improve.

My general rule of thumb would be that for each win in the Big Ten Tournament past the game with Maryland will likely improve Michigan State’s seed by one seed line. In other words, I think that if Michigan State can beat Maryland and then Wisconsin, a No. 7 seed is most likely (with a chance at a No. 6 seed). If Michigan State then beats Purdue in the semifinals, a No. 6 seed seems reasonable. In the scenario where the Spartans win the whole tournament, a No. 5 seed would be in play.

The 2021-2022 season started with meager expectations. By January, Spartans fans were optimistic that another long NCAA Tournament run was imminent. Today, we are not so sure. But on the cusp of the Big Ten Tournament, I will simply refer to the words of Coach Izzo during the Senior Day celebration following Sunday night’s win over Maryland.

“You all (the fans) hung with us this year,” Izzo said. “We had a few ups and downs, but it’s March and March around here is special. We’re grinding. We’re 20-11. We are going to make a little run here. For those of you who are going down to Indy, we will see you down there...and beyond.”

Well said, Coach. Go Green.

* Good start for Michigan State. Scrappy, quick, playing with one collective mind.

Takes 1-0 lead. Power play goal by Cessana.

Then Jagger Joshua with an unnecessary crosscheck while already on the penalty kill. Leads to a 5 on 3. Michigan ties it at 1-1.

Unnecessary penalty for Joshua. Too much of that from him and some others at times this year.

For better or worse, the final weekend of the Big Ten regular season is upon us. It goes without saying this has been another tough week for the Michigan State Spartans. The men in Green and White followed up their thrilling upset win over No. 4 Purdue last weekend with two listless, double-digit road losses to Michigan and to Ohio State.

At one point this season, the Spartans were 17-4 overall, 8-2 in conference play, and ranked in the top 15 of the country. Since then, Michigan State has lost seven of the last nine games and has drifted to the middle of the conference standings.

While a mid-season slump is not uncommon in East Lansing, a month-long slide is certainly unusual. The Spartans have shown the ability to play with, and even beat, top 10-caliber teams. However, consistent and sustained effort continues to be a problem. It is unclear if it will ever get fixed, even with a Hall-of-Fame coach on the bench.

So where does this leave Michigan State and what comes next? The Spartans will play the final regular season game on Sunday afternoon at the Breslin Center. Next week Michigan State will travel to Indianapolis to compete in the Big Ten tournament. Who will they face in Indy and when? Let’s break it all down in the final odds update of the season.

Status of the Big Ten race​

Table 1 gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of March 5, with only seven total Big Ten games remaining.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of March 4, 2022.


With both Michigan and Michigan State losing on Thursday night, the intrastate rivals are tied in the standings in seventh place.

Wisconsin has already claimed at least a share of the regular season Big Ten title. Illinois can sneak into a tie for first place if the Illini can beat Iowa on Sunday and if Nebraska is somehow able to upset Wisconsin in Madison.

As the post season approaches, note that Wisconsin is grading out as exceedingly lucky (+4.17 wins), as is (to a lesser extent) Rutgers (+2.83) and Illinois (+1.85). Conversely, Purdue (-0.41) and Iowa (-1.85) are both rather unlucky. It will be interesting to see if those programs regress to the mean in the coming weeks. Also note that both Michigan and Michigan State are close to neutral in the luck category.

Big Ten Tournament Breakdown​

While there are still a few questions to be answered, the final seeding for the Big Ten Tournament is coming into focus. Table 2 below summarizes the odds for each Big Ten team to earn each seed.

Table 2: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of March 5th


Even though there are just two days left in the regular season, there are still 128 possible season outcomes and 88 unique final Big Ten Tournament brackets. But there are several facts that are now settled:

• The top three seeds will be Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue
• Seeds No. 4 to No. 6 will be Ohio State, Iowa and Rutgers
• Michigan and Michigan State will be the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds
• Indiana is locked into the No. 9 seed
• Penn State and Maryland will be the No. 10 and No. 11 seeds
• Northwestern is locked into the No. 12 seed
• Minnesota and Nebraska will be the No. 13 and No. 14 seeds

Based on the projected point spreads for the games to be played this weekend, it is straightforward to define the scenarios and odds for each Big Ten team. Table 3 summarizes the remaining scenarios for Michigan State.

Table 3: Big Ten Tournament seeding and opponent scenarios for Michigan State.


The fate of the Spartans rests on the results of only three of the seven games this weekend. In half of the scenarios, Michigan and Michigan State finish the season in a tie with either 10 or 11 wins. Those two teams split their regular season match-ups, but Michigan State generally wins the tiebreaker with the Wolverines due to the Spartans’ split with Wisconsin and sole win over Purdue.

As a result, Michigan State will wind up with the No. 7 seed in most cases as long as Michigan State beats Maryland or if Michigan loses at Ohio State. The only exception to this rule is if both Michigan schools win and Penn State upsets Rutgers to force a three-way tie for sixth place between Michigan State, Michigan and Rutgers.

In this scenario, Michigan State’s sole loss at Rutgers (combined with Michigan’s split with the Scarlet Knights) changes the tiebreaker such that the Spartans would fall to the No. 8 seed. In all cases, if Michigan State earns the No. 7 seed, Michigan gets the No. 8 seed and vice versa.

Table 3 also summarizes Michigan State’s first round opponent in each of the eight scenarios. The most likely result (71 percent odds) is that the Spartans will face No. 7 seed Maryland on Thursday at 6:30 p.m. There is a very good chance that the Spartans will have to play the same team twice over a span of five days. If Michigan wins on Sunday, this would mean that they need to beat the same team three times in a year, which is seldom easy.

If this does not sound appealing, root for Penn State on Sunday. If the Nittany Lions upset Rutgers, the Spartans will instead draw Penn State or Indiana in the first game of the Big Ten Tournament in three of those four scenarios.

On paper, the fifth scenario in Table 3 where Michigan State, Ohio State, and Penn State all win looks the most appealing. That said, I would accept the argument that rooting for Michigan and Penn State might make sense, as it would drop Michigan State to the No. 8 seed to face No. 9 Indiana at 11:30 a.m. on Thursday.

While the optics of dropping down a seed might seem bad, this would most likely place Michigan State in the same part of the bracket as Wisconsin and in the opposite part of the bracket as Illinois and Purdue. While the Badgers will most likely win the Big Ten outright, I personally believe that Wisconsin would be a softer draw on Friday than either the Boilermakers or the Illini. Kenpom data supports this argument.

That said, if MSU secures the No. 7 seed and No. 8 goes to Michigan, there is a solid probability that Juwan Howard will once again meet up with Wisconsin on Friday at 11:30 a.m. The intrigue around that rematch would make for good television.

Let’s now break down the rest of the tournament seeding scenarios, starting with the top three seeds.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios for the top three seeds.


Wisconsin will earn the No. 1 seed if they can beat Nebraska on Sunday, or if Iowa upsets Illinois. Purdue is headed for the No. 3 seed unless Iowa beats Illinois and the Boilers can handle the Hoosiers at home on Saturday.

Table 5 below shows the scenarios for the No. 4 to the No. 6 seed.

Table 5: Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios for seeds No. 4 to No. 6.


Illinois, Ohio State and Rutgers are all playing at home on Sunday and will all be favored. Thus, the most likely outcome is that all three teams will win, which would result in Ohio State securing the No. 4 seed, Rutgers getting the No. 5 seed and Iowa sliding down to the No. 6 seed.

That said, there is less than a 30 percent chance that all three teams avoid an upset. Of the remaining seven scenarios, four of them result in Iowa claiming the No. 4 seed, Ohio State getting the No. 5 seed, and Rutgers falling to the No. 6 seed.

Tables 5 and 6 show the scenarios for the No. 10, No. 11, No. 13, and No. 14 seeds, which are much more straightforward.

Table 6: Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios for the No. 10 and No. 11 seeds.


Table 7: Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios for the No. 13 and No. 14 seeds.


As mentioned above, Maryland is in line to claim the No. 10 seed if the Terrapins upset Michigan State or as long as Rutgers beats Penn State. As for the bottom two seeds, Minnesota gets the No. 13 seed unless Nebraska upsets Wisconsin and the Gophers lose at Northwestern.

Finally, regardless of which of the 88 possible Big Ten Tournament brackets winds up coming to pass, Table 8 below gives the simulated odds for the results of the Big Ten Tournament, considering the properly weighted odds of all 88 potential tournaments.

Table 8: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of March 5.


Despite the fact that Purdue is most likely going to be the No. 3 seed and that Iowa may not even earn a double bye, those two teams project to have the best odds to win the Big Ten Tournament at 29 percent and 22 percent, respectively. These odds are based on the projected point spreads derived from Kenpom efficiencies, which are historically fairly accurate.

As for the Spartans, the math currently gives Michigan State only a three percent chance to claim the Big Ten Tournament Title.

That is all for today. As always, enjoy and Go State, beat the Terrapins!

MSU is the No. 8 seed (16% odds) if:

-Maryland beats MSU and UofM beats

OSU AND/OR IF

-UofM beats OSU and Penn State beats Rutgers

Otherwise, MSU is the No. 7 seed (84% odds) There is a 71% chance MSU will face Maryland 2x in a row.

I am not going to lie. Iowa beating Michigan by double digits tonight made me feel a lot better. I also missed almost all of tonight's game. I will be there on Sunday and hope to see Izzo break the record in person.

Based on Wednesday night's Big Ten action and the lines for Thursday's games, here is the updated Big Ten Tournament seeding odds. MSU can still get the No. 4 seed (with help) but the No. 7 seed is now 50-50.



Here is a table & figure that summarizes how MSU's odds change based on the results of the OSU/MSU game and Iowa/UofM game. If MSU wins, the No. 6 seed is most likely. If MSU loses, only the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds are in play. Iowa needs to lose for the No. 4 seed to be in play.





For reference, here is the same analysis for Michigan. If UofM beats Iowa, the No. 5 or No. 6 seed is most likely. If Iowa wins, Michigan looks headed for the No. 8 seed and the result of the MSU/OSU game does not matter.