With the loss last night in Ann Arbor, last night, there are now only four scenarios left for MSU. This chart and table below summarize the odds for MSU to earn each BTT seed, depending on the scenario. The No. 7 seed is most likely.





Note that the best-case scenario is the No. 4 seed. MSU needs to win out. Rutgers needs to lose one game and Iowa needs to lose out. Rutgers plays at Indiana tonight and hosts Penn State on Sunday. Iowa is at Michigan on Thursday at Illinois on Sunday. So, in order for MSU to have any shot at the No. 4 seed, Michigan needs to beat Iowa. That is not ideal.

Tonight's Indiana / Rutgers game also will have a noticeable impact on MSU's seed. The Figure below gives the details.



Basically, a Rutgers win hurts MSU's chances of a top five seed and pushes the odds for the No. 7 seed to 50-50.

As the games play out, I will continue to crunch the numbers.

Breathe, Michigan State fans.

The emotional rollercoaster that is Michigan State men’s basketball continues to chug along. Up until February, the Spartans seemed poised to challenge for yet another Big Ten title. But then the bottom dropped out to the extent that there were whispers that Michigan State was attempting to play itself onto the NCAA Tournament bubble.

On Saturday, Michigan State appeared sharp and focused for the first time in weeks, and the Spartans led the Big Ten Conference-leading Purdue Boilermakers for almost the entire game. In the final minute, it looked as though the bottom might drop out again. Fortunately, Tyson Walker had other plans, and the Spartans emerged with a desperately needed, possibly season-changing, victory.

In times like these, it is important to remember that a team is seldom as bad as its last big loss (such as at Iowa) and seldom as good as its last big win (such as versus Purdue). The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. That said, it certainly was nice to see the Spartans flying around on defense, playing with passion, making shots and earning the victory on Saturday.

The question now is whether the Spartans are once again on the rise and building toward a traditional March surge, or if the win over Purdue was simply a temporary blip. Either way, with 10 Big Ten wins now secured and another high-quality win on the resume, I am confident that Michigan State will be breathing easy on Selection Sunday. MSU is now playing just to get better and to try to improve its seeding for both the NCAA Tournament and Big Ten Tournament.

With just one week of conference play remaining, let’s take a quick look at the current Big Ten race and how it will impact Michigan State’s postseason.

The Big Ten Race​

Tables 1 and 2 below show the enhanced Big Ten standings and the updated odds for the Big Ten regular season race.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 28, 2022


Table 2: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams.


Michigan State is currently in a tie with Iowa for fifth place in the conference. Rutgers is a half-game back and Michigan is a full game back of the Spartans and Hawkeyes.

As for the race for the regular season title, Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo should expect a nice fruit basket in the mail from fellow head coach Greg Gard and the Wisconsin Badgers, as Michigan State’s win over Purdue this weekend all but sealed a championship in Madison. Wisconsin just needs one more win to secure the title.

Wisconsin can earn at least a share of the title if the Badgers can beat Purdue at home on Tuesday night. If this happens, Wisconsin will almost certainly claim a solo title, as the Badgers close out the season with a home game against cellar-dwellers Nebraska on Sunday.

If Purdue beats Wisconsin, the Boilermakers will earn a share of the title with a win against rival Indiana on Saturday. Illinois can also earn a share of the conference title if the Illini can win the team’s final two home games against Penn State and Iowa this week.

Michigan State’s Final Stretch​

With just three games remaining, the projected point spreads and win probabilities for the Spartans are as follows:

• Tuesday, March 1: Michigan State (+3.5) at Michigan. Odds to win = 36.5%
• Thursday, March 3: Michigan State (+5.5) at Ohio State. Odds to win = 29.3%
• Sunday, March 6: Maryland at Michigan State (-7.4). Odds to win = 76.8%

The resulting odds for any final record between 10-10 and 13-7 is then summarized below in the Big Ten win matrix.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of March 1


Michigan State’s current expected conference win total is 11.43, which means that it is close to 50-50 as to whether the Spartans will win 12 games or more. The math actually says that the ratio is 45-to-55. Another way to look at this data is that a final record of 11-9 is the most likely single result (44.4 percent), but the odds to finish with a record of 12-8 or 13-7 is almost identical (45.1 percent).

Big Ten Tournament Breakdown​

With the regular season winding down, the focus for the final week will be almost entirely on positioning for the Big Ten Tournament. As of Tuesday morning, there are 15 regular season games remaining, which implies that there are still 32,768 potential outcomes. Table 4 below summarizes the updated Big Ten Tournament seeds matrix, including the odds of Michigan State’s first tournament opponent.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of March 1, 2022.


Based on the results over the weekend, Michigan State’s position has improved noticeably. The Spartans are projecting as the No. 6 or the No. 7 seed. In addition, the most likely first round opponent for Michigan State is now Maryland (32 percent) with Penn State (19 percent), Indiana (16 percent) and Northwestern (11 percent) as the next most likely.

With only three games remaining, there are only eight total scenarios left for the Spartans. In one of those scenarios, Michigan State wins out to finish at 13-7 in the Big Ten Conference. In another scenario, the Spartans lose out to finish at 10-10. There are then three ways each to finish the regular season at 11-9 and 12-8.

I ran an additional set of simulations on each of these eight scenarios to better understand Michigan State’s final placement in the Big Ten Tournament. Table 5 summarizes the results of these simulations.

Table 5: Odds for MSU to earn each Big Ten Tournament seed and the most likely first tournament opponent based on the eight remaining scenarios


As Table 5 shows, Michigan State’s final record should be a clear indicator of the Spartans’ Big Ten Tournament seed. If Michigan State wins out, there is a very good chance that the Spartans will sneak back into the top-four of the conference and be able to earn the coveted double-bye. In this scenario, Michigan State would finish in no worse than a tie with Ohio State and would also own the head-to-head tiebreaker. That said, the Spartans’ most likely first opponent in Indianapolis would then be No. 5 seed Ohio State.

The only way for the Spartans to slip to the No. 5 or No. 6 seed is if Iowa wins out (including road wins at both Michigan and Illinois). So, in order for Michigan State to maximize the possible seed, it is reasonable for MSU fans to root against Iowa.

If Michigan State can win two of the final three games to finish 12-8, the Spartans will most likely earn the No. 6 seed. The most likely way for this to occur would be for Michigan State to beat Michigan and Maryland, but to lose to Ohio State in Columbus. In this scenario, both Iowa and Rutgers are problematic from a tie-breaker point of view. Rutgers travels to Indiana on Wednesday night. A win by the home team would help MSU for seeding purposes.

If the Spartans are only able to win one of the final three games and finish at just 11-9, the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten Tournament will be the most likely result. In many of these scenarios, the Spartans end up either behind or in a tie with Rutgers and Iowa in the final standings. Michigan State is 0-2 against those teams head-to-head this year and thus the tiebreakers would not help the Green and White.

Finally, if the Spartans somehow fail to win any more games this regular season, the No. 8 seed becomes the most likely outcome. Hopefully, it will not come to that.

That is all for today. Until next time, enjoy, and let’s get that win over the Wolverines tonight. Go Green.

liked by the players?

Heard recently from a good source that they do not. Some comments about him coaching via intimidation, etc

Just curious what others know and hear

2-1….At least they got the Senior Night win. Now, Get a B1G tourney win! Beat the weasels!

* We will have video of the press conference posted here shortly.

Some of the takeaways:

* The energy and enthusiasm of that guy is palpable, and probably contagious.

* The team is in Day 4 of Week 6 of the Spartan Training Program. The program lasts seven weeks. It began on Jan. 18, as they work toward spring football.

* He said the players are understandably much further along this year, with it being the team's second full season of winter training within the program. "Xavier Henderson finishes my sentences for me now," Novak said, indicating the leadership that is taking hold in the conditioning sessions.

* He said Ameer Speed came to Michigan State fresh off of a National Championship game, only two weeks after Georgia's season ended. So he said Speed was already in in-season shape when the program started. He didn't have to regain anything.

* He said Jayden Reed is in great shape, so now they are fine-tuning some of his force or burst measureables. He said Reed squats 500 and there is no need, for his position, to try to get him up to 515. He benches 335, and there is no need to chase 350, so it's about maximizing other areas with that particular player.

* He said Kenneth Walker III never lost a training rep during his time at Michigan State. Not one. Novak said he has posted Walker's strength and conditioning progress sheets on the walls of the weight room so that people can see how a great one got it done. Novak said this is what he told NFL scouts when they came through the building recently.

* I asked about Dashaun Mallory. He said Mallory kind of fell in love with the way he was starting to look "in a bathing suit" last summer, and the coaches did want him to add back a few more pounds during fall camp. Novak said Mallory has grown into his new body well and he expects good things from him this year. He said Mallory is an excellent cook and Mallory actually conducts cooking classes for other players within Amber Rinestine's nutritional guidelines.

* Novak said the transfers and freshmen have filled in nicely. He feels good about where they are. He didn't mention anyone specifically.

Lost both to nd. Of course can barely score what’s new.

anyone go? Atmosphere?
I heard the losing streak is the most since the 50s

I have used a few metaphors to try to describe this year’s Michigan State basketball season, and most of them have been nautical in nature. First, I explained the existence of the Bermuda Triangle. Then, I thought that the Spartans might have found calmer waters. Most recently, I speculated that the Green and White were stuck in the doldrums.

As the losses continue to accumulate, punctuated most recently with the blow-out loss at Iowa, I no longer feel that the Spartans are lost at sea. No, I fear that the situation is more dire than that. I fear instead that they are lost in space.

The current streak of losing five of the last six feels dark, suffocating, and no one knows which way is up anymore. Worse yet, there is an event horizon visible in the distance. If the Spartans get too close, they will cross the point of no return and a cherished 23-year NCAA Tournament streak will be lost forever. It is unbelievable that we even need to talk about that considering where the Spartans were just a month ago, but here we are.

So, how bad are things, really? How much do we need to worry about the unthinkable? Let’s take a quick spin through the numbers.

Enhanced Big Ten Standings and Updated Odds​

Table 1 gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 26. Note that all the changes in value are relative to last week’s full update, just before the loss to Illinois.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 26, 2022.


With just four games remaining in the Big Ten season, Michigan State has drifted to the middle of the pack and is now in a tie with the Wolverines for seventh place, a half-game behind Iowa and Rutgers.

The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 26, 2022.


With Illinois’ loss to Ohio State this week, Purdue and Wisconsin have edged ahead in expected wins and now appear to be neck-and-neck in the final stretch with Ohio State and Illinois about a game back.

Iowa has made a move up to fifth place, a fraction of a win ahead of Rutgers, with Michigan and Michigan State about a half game back of the Scarlet Knights. Indiana is more than a game behind the Michiganders.

While it likely feels to Michigan State fans that they will never win a game again, there is still a 60 percent chance that the Spartans finish at 11-9 or better and a 21 percent chance that they win at least three of their final four games.

Table 3 below gives the updated odds to at least share the Big Ten regular season title as of Feb. 26.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. 26, 2022.


Consistent with Table 2, the race looks like it will come down to Purdue and Wisconsin who have a 65 and 57 percent chance to win the regular season title. Incidentally, those two teams will play each other in Madison on Tuesday, March 1. The winner of that game will likely clinch at least a share of the championship.

Note also that the math is still split on whether Purdue or Wisconsin will win out and claim the title at 16-4. In general, there is a 62 percent chance that the eventual winner does not have to share the title, a 24 percent chance that two teams will share the title and a 14 percent chance that it is a three-team or more tie.

Big Ten Tournament and Strengths of Schedule​

If the season ended today, that would be weird, because there are still 22 Big Ten games left on the full schedule. Fortunately, we can use projected point spreads and simulations to get a sneak peek on how the Big Ten Tournament seeding might play out. Table 4 below summarizes the odds for each team to earn each seed.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb 26, 2022. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update.


As the end of the season approaches, the seeding for the Big Ten Tournament is starting to take shape.

The top four seeds are fixed with about 90 percent certainty. In addition, seeds No. 9 to No. 14 are starting to solidify. But seeds No. 5 to No. 8 are very much up for grabs.

With the Spartans’ continuing troubles, the Green and White are currently projected to earn the No. 8 seed with the No. 7 seed also very possible. That said, any seed from No. 3 down to No. 10 is still in play.

In addition, I have extracted additional information from the simulation. The shaded column in the center of Table 4 now shows the most likely opponents for the Spartans to face in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. Indiana (43 percent) and Penn State (32 percent) are the current most likely opponents.

Table 5 below gives the odds for each Big Ten team to advance in the Big Ten tournament.

Table 5: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of Feb. 26.


Michigan State’s odds to win the tournament title are currently at 3.6 percent, which is slightly better than the odds for Michigan State to win out in the regular season.

Figure 1 below provides an update on the Big Ten strength of schedule data.


Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule both overall (left) and of the remaining conference games (right) as of Feb. 26.

The slightly good news is that Michigan State’s remaining schedule is now only the third hardest remaining schedule, with Iowa’s schedule now grading out as slightly more challenging. The Hawkeyes will finish up the regular season at Michigan and at Illinois.

Michigan State’s Kenpom Trajectory and Remaining Schedule​

Figure 2 below provides an update to the Kenpom efficiency scatter plot.


Figure 2: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot as of Feb. 26.

The Spartans continue to drift farther away from the efficiency profile of past Spartan teams who have enjoyed a reasonably successful postseason. The stats of the current Michigan State team very closely resemble the stats of the 2002 team that lost in the first round. If the Spartans don’t start playing drastically better, a similar (or worse) fate is likely awaiting.

Finally, Figure 3 below gives an overview of MSU’s remaining Big Ten games, including projected point spreads and win probabilities for the final eight contests on the schedule.


Figure 3: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins

As expected, the Spartans are still projected to be the underdog in their next three contests, including today’s game with Purdue. While the Kenpom data only favors Purdue by around two points, the line in Vegas has opened with the Boilermakers as a four-point favorite.

If we look at the cold, hard numbers, they suggest the most likely scenario for the Spartans would be for Michigan State to spring exactly one upset in the next three games and then beat Maryland in the finale to finish the regular season at 11-9 in the Big Ten and 20-11 overall.

The Spartans would then enter the Big Ten Tournament as (most likely) the No. 7 seed where they would face a team such as Penn State. MSU would be favored to win this game and then would be an underdog in the next game (against a team such as No. 2 seed Wisconsin). The most likely outcome is for MSU to win a game and lose a game in Indianapolis and enter the NCAA Tournament with a 21-12 record.

Based on this hypothetical resume, I would guess that Michigan State’s NET would remain in the mid-30s and they would likely earn a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, although I would not rule out a No. 8 or No. 9 seed.

If the Spartans can finish stronger than that, they could still play their way back up to a No. 6 or No. 5 seed. But what happens if Michigan State continues to underachieve? Are they in danger of missing the Tournament?

My best guess is that Michigan State needs to win just one more game to feel safe on Selection Sunday. So, what are the odds, then, that the Spartans lose out?

The question is actually pretty easy to answer. Table 2 shows that the odds that Michigan State finishes at 9-11 at six percent. This would obviously be bad, but MSU could still pick up a win in the Big Ten Tournament which I believe would be enough to keep the streak alive. The odds of losing out and then losing in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament are a bit less than three percent.

That said, the surest way to avoid sweating on Selection Sunday would be to pick up an impressive win over Purdue at Breslin Center today. That would certainly go a long way towards securing a bid and bringing the team back down to earth.

That is all for today. Until next time, enjoy and Go State, beat the Boilers!

When it comes to Michigan State basketball, I am the eternal optimist. I never count out a Tom Izzo-led team until the final buzzer. While a big part of this attitude is simply my personality, the facts tend to justify my rosy attitude.

After all, Michigan State has won a Big Ten regular season or tournament title in exactly half of the seasons going back to 1998. Coach Izzo has made the Sweet 16 at an even higher rate than that (61 percent of the time) and has advanced to the Final Four in a little over one-third of all of the NCAA Tournaments in which he has appeared.

Furthermore, as I have shown, it is not at all uncommon for the Spartans to hit the skids in late January and early February. But the typical pattern is for Michigan State to recover and surge by now. I fully expected that this Spartan team had the goods to still be in the Big Ten race in the final week of the regular season. I was wrong. With the loss to Illinois over the weekend, it is time to shift focus to simply getting better in preparation for the postseason.

As we await the tip off for tonight’s (Tuesday’s) contest with Iowa, let’s take a quick look at the updated numbers for the rest of the Big Ten season, starting with the updated enhanced Big Ten standings shown below in Table 1.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 22, 2022


Michigan State is currently sitting in sixth place in the standings. The Spartans are a half-game behind Rutgers and a full-game ahead of both Iowa and Michigan. In addition to the game tonight in Iowa City, Michigan hosts Rutgers on Wednesday night. The results of these two games will help to sort out the final placement of those four teams in the Big Ten standings.

Note that Michigan State has now slipped into negative territory in the “luck” metric (-0.13 games), but the Spartans are nowhere near as unlucky as Iowa (-2.04 games). On the other side of the coin, the very lucky Wisconsin Badgers (+3.06) and Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+2.92) may be overdue for a late-season slump.

The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 22.


As we approach the finish line of the regular season, some separation in the standings is apparent. The top-three teams (Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin) are in the top tier, with Ohio State now a game back and comfortably in fourth place.

The next four teams (Rutgers, Iowa, Michigan State and Michigan) are closely packed with expected conference win totals between 11 and 12. Indiana and Penn State are a full two to three games back in expected wins, and then there is a small gap that separates the bottom four teams in the conference: Northwestern, Maryland, Minnesota and Nebraska.

The raw numbers suggest that despite Michigan State’s tough schedule to close out the regular season, there is still a 74 percent chance that the Spartans win at least two more games (to finish at 11-9 or better). There is also a 36 percent chance for MSU to get to 12 wins and a nine percent chance that the Spartans get to 13 wins. At least 13 wins will likely be needed for any chance to sneak back into the top-four teams in the conference.

Table 3 below gives the updated odds to at least share the Big Ten regular season title as of Feb. 22.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams.


The story being told by Table 3 is very similar to the one told by the win matrix. There is about a 50-50 chance that at least one team from the group of Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin will win out and claim at least a share of the regular season title. If not, a 15-5 record will almost certainly be good enough to hang a banner, most likely concurrent with one or two other Big Ten teams.

Ohio State is still in the race, but they are starting to fade with odds now down to seven percent. Rutgers and Michigan State are the only other conference teams to record a conference title in any of the 100,000 simulations that I ran overnight. Rutgers’ current odds are about 1-in-750 while Michigan State’s title odds are around 1-in-1,500. In other words, yes, I am saying that there still is a chance.

Jockeying for Seeds​

With the Big Ten regular season race coming to a close, it is time to shift focus onto the Big Ten and NCAA Tournament. To this end, Table 4 shows the updated Big Ten Tournament seeds matrix.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb 22, 2022.


As it stands now, Michigan State is most likely to earn the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten Tournament with the No. 8 seed very much a possibility if the currently projected favored teams all win out. The top-five and bottom-six seeds are starting to look sorted out, but seeds No. 6 to No. 8 are all very much in play.

To this end, tonight’s game with Iowa is critical, as it is the only meeting between the two schools and the result could become a seeding tiebreaker at the end of the season. A few simulations suggest that a win over Iowa would mean a 76 percent chance that Michigan State ends up with a top-six seed in the Big Ten Tournament. A loss would mean a 71 percent chance that the Green and White drop to the No. 7 or No. 8 seed.

As for the NCAA Tournament seeding, the recent slump in the Spartans’ record has also caused Michigan State to slide down the seed list of the various online mock brackets. Both ESPN and CBS now have MSU projected as a No. 6 seed.

When it comes to “bracketology” there are a variety of different metrics that are used to try to seed the teams into the final bracket. In the coming weeks, college basketball fans will start to hear more and more about NET rankings and “Quad One” wins.

While these metrics have their value, I have concerns about the usefulness of the NET ranking system specifically. For this reason, last year I created my own results-based ranking system that I refer to as the NEW index (because it is based on Normalized Expected Wins).

The idea is actually quite simple, as I explained in detail last year. The NEW index measures the number of wins that a team actually earned relative to the expected wins for an average power five team playing the same schedule.

Tables 5 and 6 below introduce the current top 70 teams, based on my NEW rankings. Big Ten teams are highlighted in blue. Michigan State is highlighted in green, and various teams from mid-major conferences have their names shaded in light green. For reference, the current NET and Kenpom rankings are shown, along with the initial seed list released by the tournament selection committee over the weekend.

Table 5: Initial NEW rankings and selected "nitty gritty" data as of Feb. 22, 2022 for the top 35 teams


Table 6: Initial NEW rankings and selected "nitty gritty" data as of Feb. 22, 2022 for the teams ranked 36 to 70.


There is a lot of information in these two tables, but I will simply point out a few things. In general, the NEW rankings correlate well with the NET rankings and with the initial seed list presented by the selection committee. I would also argue that the NEW index does a better job than the NET in ranking some of the teams, as expected.

For example, the selection committee had both Purdue and Wisconsin placed higher on their seed list than either teams’ NET or Kenpom ranking would suggest. Both teams score higher on my NEW index. In contrast, Houston is currently ranked in the top-five of the NET and in the top-10 in Kenpom. However, the selection committee revealed over the weekend that Houston is currently in a position to earn a No. 5 seed. The NEW index comes to the same conclusion by ranking the Cougars No. 19.

As for Michigan State, the Spartans are currently ranked No. 30 in my NEW index, which is very similar to the current NET ranking of No. 29 and Kenpom ranking of No. 27. What is useful is that I can use my NEW index to project where Michigan State might wind up depending on how the rest of the season plays out.

In the absolute worst-case scenario that the Spartans lose out (and finish at 18-14 overall), I can project that Michigan State would fall in my NEW index to around No. 65. This is right in the area of the rankings where Michigan and Indiana are currently located. This would place the Spartans squarely on the tournament bubble with eight consecutive losses and 10 losses in the final 11 games.

While many of those losses would be to other tournament teams, this nightmare scenario would likely send the Spartans to the NIT. Fortunately, the odds of this scenario playing out are also quite low (perhaps around two percent).

If Michigan State finishes out with two more regular season wins and then goes 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament (which the math suggests is the “expected” result), the Spartans’ NEW rankings would stay about the same in the lower 30s. I would project that in this scenario, Michigan State would likely earn a No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If MSU can win three of the next five games, I think that a No. 5 seed starts to be more likely.

Finally, if we would like to consider the very optimistic scenario where Michigan State gets hot, wins out, and somehow wins the Big Ten Tournament, how high of a seed might MSU be able to claim? Based on my projections, in this case the Spartans could rise to as high as No. 10 in my NEW rankings. This would likely result in a No. 3 seed or even a No. 2 seed depending on what happens elsewhere.

That said, this result is honestly less likely than the one where Michigan State tanks and fails to make the tournament at all. But, as March approaches, as MSU fans, it is OK to dream big. The past 25 years have given us permission to be optimistic.

That is all for today. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, beat the Hawkeyes!

Watching the final game and I know its early but do these 2 teams play FAST! Wow, I'm tired just watching. Don't know how or if they can keep this up for 3 periods. Seems faster then the little college hockey I've watched. Want to ask you hockey guys who know a whole lot more about hockey than I do, how do you think they would do against a collegiate program?

dol·drums

noun

“an equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean with calms, sudden storms, and light unpredictable winds.”

or

“a state or period of inactivity, stagnation, or depression.”

I have a confession to make. After Michigan State fairly easily dispatched the Indiana Hoosiers last Saturday, I thought that the mid-season funk had come to an end. I fully expected that the Spartans had escaped from the early February Bermuda Triangle and were ready to make another run at the Big Ten title, difficulty of the remaining schedule be damned.

When the Spartans had the lead up to 14 points at Penn State, I thought that it was going to be smooth sailing for the rest of the evening. But then, all of a sudden, the wind seemed to come out of the sails of Michigan State’s offense. It grew inactive and stagnant, and by the time the final buzzer sounded, fans of the Spartans were depressed. Now, a once promising season seems lost at sea.

As we will see below, the odds of Tom Izzo claiming his record-tying 11th Big Ten title are fading over the distant horizon. There are still other trophies to chase, but some of the doors of opportunity for the 2021-2022 season are closing. Based on where the Spartans were just a few weeks ago, this is disappointing.

But right now, the main goal is to escape from the doldrums. While this Spartan team is flawed and unpredictable, I believe that it has enough quality pieces to win quite a few more games in 2022. The winds of change in Big Ten country are fickle. Hopefully they will start to blow Michigan State’s way again soon.

Enhanced Big Ten Standings and Updated Odds​

Table 1 gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 18. Note that all the changes in value are relative to last week’s full update, just before the win over Indiana.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 18, 2022.


With a record of 9-5, Michigan State is currently sitting in sixth place in the conference, a half-game behind suddenly hot Rutgers, after the Scarlet Knights recently took out Illinois on Wednesday night. As a result of this upset, Purdue has now surged ahead and into first place in the conference with a 12-4 record with just four games left to play. Illinois and Wisconsin are a half-game back at 11-4, while Ohio State sits in fourth place at 9-4.

The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 18, 2022.


Michigan State’s expected conference win total has drifted slightly lower to 11.8, which still implies that a final record of 12-8 is most likely. This would also imply that the Spartans are most likely to split the final six conference games to finish the regular season at 21-10 overall.

The Spartans are currently projected to earn a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If Michigan State splits the final six games and goes 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament, I would project a final seed of No. 7 in the Big Dance. In the event that MSU gets to 13-7 or 14-6, that seed would clearly improve. However, if MSU really limps down the stretch, it is in danger of falling to a No. 8 or No. 9 seed or worse, depending on the mood of the selection committee.

Table 3 below gives the updated odds to at least share the Big Ten regular season title as of Feb. 11.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. 18, 2022.


With Rutgers continuing to decimate the teams at the top of the conference, Purdue and Ohio State were able to benefit. The Boilermakers have a solid lead in Big Ten regular season championship odds at 64 percent, with Wisconsin and Illinois both checking in now with percentage odds in the lower 30s.

Ohio State’s odds have ticked up significantly to 25 percent. Michigan State’s odds are now down to 1.6 percent.

That said, if you happen to be an eternal optimist, here is some grist for your mill. In 2020, Michigan State had a record of 9-6 on Feb. 19 and had just lost four of its last five games. Four of the final five games were against ranked teams and half of those games were on the road. The Spartans rallied to win all five games, and thanks to a few upsets elsewhere in the conference, Michigan State got to hang a banner for a Big Ten championship.

Michigan State is currently only one game out of first place and will soon play three of the four teams ahead of the Spartans in the standings. MSU still controls its own destiny with the exception of Wisconsin. But the math above gives the Badgers only an eight percent chance to run the table. If the Spartans can rally like Izzo’s team did in 2020 (and that is an enormous “if”), a Big Ten title is still very likely in play.

Big Ten Tournament and Strengths of Schedule​

If the season ended today, that would be weird, because there are still 35 Big Ten games left on the full schedule. Fortunately, we can use projected point spreads and simulations to get a sneak peek on how the Big Ten Tournament seeding might play out. Table 4 below summarizes the odds for each team to earn each seed.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb 18, 2022. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update.


Rutgers is the clear rising stars this week, as the Scarlet Knights’ projected seeds jumped four spots to No. 5 using both calculation methods. Michigan State has slipped to the No. 6 spot in the table and is once again in danger of dropping below the Michigan Wolverines to the No. 7 seed in the scenario where the currently projected favored teams all win out.

The odds for the Spartans to climb back into the top-four and earn the Big Ten Tournament double-bye are down to 17 percent, which is below Rutgers’ odds of 24 percent. Michigan State’s odds of winning the Big Ten Tournament are currently at 6.5 percent, as shown below in Table 5.

Table 5: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of Feb. 18, 2022.


Figure 1 below provides an update on the Big Ten strength of schedule data.


Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule both overall (left) and of the remaining conference games (right) as of Feb. 18, 2022.

Similar to the past few updates, Michigan State continues to have the most challenging remaining schedule in the conference, while Wisconsin and Ohio State have two of the easier remaining schedules. Purdue and Illinois rank in the middle.

Michigan State’s Kenpom Trajectory and Remaining Schedule​

Figure 2 below provides an update to the Kenpom efficiency scatter plot, the format of which has been explained previously.


Figure 2: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot as of Feb. 18, 2022.

Up until the blowout loss at Rutgers, the efficiency numbers for the Spartans were hovering right around the area of Figure 2 that is similar to Michigan State’s 2010 Final Four team. Over the last two weeks, the efficiency has drifted down to the area of the graph that is populated by past Spartan teams that did not make it past the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

The key point here is that if the Spartans do not start playing better right now, especially on defense, Michigan State fans need to temper expectations on the potential ceiling of this team (if they haven’t already). Clearly, the team that failed to finish off the Nittany Lions in State College this week is not going anywhere meaningful in March.

Finally, Figure 3 below gives an overview of MSU’s remaining Big Ten games, including projected point spreads and win probabilities for the final eight contests on the schedule.


Figure 3: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins.

The Spartans have now reached the end-of-season gauntlet that we have seen coming since early December. Michigan State only projects to be favored in two of the final six games, but the overall probabilities suggest that getting three wins in the final six games is most likely.

One way to think about this is that MSU is expected to win one of the two toss-up home games against Illinois or Purdue, one of three remaining road games, and the home finale against Maryland. That is the most likely set of scenarios.

I will also comment that the one game on the schedule that seems the most difficult right now is the road game at Ohio State on March 3. The raw probabilities shown in Figure 3 support this, as does the schedule. The game in Columbus will be the Spartans’ third game in six days, including two likely very physical games against Purdue and at Michigan. It would certainly have been much better if Michigan State already had a big win at Michigan on the resume back in early January.

The way that Michigan State performs over the next five games will ultimately decide the fate of the 2021-2022 team. If the Spartans can consistently harness the level of focus and execution that the team displayed at Wisconsin and at home against Indiana and Michigan, I believe that Michigan State can overachieve and win four or even five of these remaining games.

History tells us that this is certainly possible, if not probable with Coach Izzo on the bench. But each team and each year is different and nothing in life is guaranteed. Either way, the opportunity is there for this team to make their mark. The time to make a move is now. Go Green.

Story on the front:

When we last checked in on the overall mathematical status of the Michigan State Spartans men’s basketball season prospects, things were looking bleak. The Green and White seemed adrift in the late January and early February “Bermuda Triangle” after two straight losses at Rutgers and to Wisconsin. But, on Saturday in the Breslin Center, the Spartans seemed to find calmer waters in a convincing, 15-point win over Indiana.

In addition to Michigan State’s big win, there were a few other results over the weekend that seem to benefit the Spartans. Most importantly, Rutgers was able to upset Wisconsin in Madison on Saturday, which dropped the Badgers into a second-place tie with the Spartans in the Big Ten loss column. On Sunday, there were no upsets, but Illinois and especially Purdue had lackluster performances against Northwestern and Maryland, respectively.

What is the current status of the Big Ten race? Let’s start below with the updated enhanced Big Ten standings.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 14, 2022.


Illinois is still in the captain’s chair at the top of the standings with just three conference losses. Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State are effectively in a four-way tie for second place with four losses. That said, Ohio State may have the edge due to the Buckeyes’ “plus-four” metric (meaning that they have four more road wins than home losses) and the fact that the Buckeyes still own the easiest remaining conference schedule.

That said, the good news for the Spartans is that the loss by Wisconsin once again means that Michigan State controls its own destiny in the Big Ten race. If MSU wins out, the Spartans are guaranteed to at least share the Big Ten title.

The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 14.


The blow-out win over the Hoosiers on Saturday, and the associated bump in efficiency, resulted in an almost half-game improvement in Michigan State’s expected win total, which is now up to 12.44. The odds that the Spartans can get to a record of 13-7 or better are 48 percent. There is also a 20 percent chance that MSU will win at least 14 conference games and a five percent chance of at least 15 wins.

Table 3 below gives the updated odds at least share the Big Ten regular season title as of Feb. 14.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning team.


The first thing to notice here is that the events of the weekend have doubled Michigan State’s Big Ten title odds from three percent to six percent. That is still not great, but it is progress. As expected, Illinois (61 percent) and Purdue (45 percent) have the best odds in the conference to win or share the regular season title.

There is another piece of more subtle data here that is worth mentioning. For the first time all season, the most likely final record of the eventual conference champion(s) has dropped to 15-5. Furthermore, a close inspection of the simulation results suggests that if Michigan State is able to win 15 games, there is a 75 percent chance that the regular season ends on a “banner day.”

The numbers suggest that this result is still a long shot, but the amount of overachievement needed (just two wins over expectation in the final seven games) would not be unprecedented.

As for the other metrics that I track, I will simply summarize the updated numbers briefly until the next full update later in the week.

• Michigan’s loss to Ohio State over the weekend knocked the Wolverines back down the list for Big Ten Tournament seeding. Michigan State is still in the unenviable position of projecting as the No. 5 seed, which would just miss out on a double-bye.
• The Spartans’ odds for a top-four seed and accompanying double-bye now stand at 36 percent. The odds for a Big Ten Tournament title have ticked up to eight percent.
• Michigan State currently holds the most challenging remaining conference schedule. An average Power Five team would be expected to win only 54 percent of MSU’s remaining games. In contrast, an average Power Five team would be expected to win almost 70 percent of the games on Ohio State’s remaining schedule (the easiest remaining slate).
• The point spread for Michigan State’s game on Tuesday night at Penn State is projecting to be -2.5 to -3.5, which translates to a 58 to 63 percent chance that the weather remains calm in the Spartans’ atmosphere and the team’s winning ways continue. (Note: it opened at -2.5)

Michigan State and Penn State tip-off at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday night, and the game will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network (BTN).

Other games to keep an eye on this week include Wisconsin at Indiana on Tuesday night (9 p.m. on ESPN2), Illinois at Rutgers on Wednesday night (7 p.m. on BTN) and Purdue at Northwestern, also on Wednesday night (9 p.m. also on BTN).

That is all for today. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, beat the Lions!

State is on the power play and gives up two short handed goals

It has been a pretty tough week, hasn’t it Michigan State fans?

A week ago, Michigan State was projected to win almost 14 conference games. My simulations gave the Spartans close to a one-in-four chance to win or share the Big Ten title. The Green and White were also one of only a handful of teams with the combination of offensive and defensive efficiency that was consistent with former NCAA champions. Life was good.

But, in New Jersey, Michigan State ran into a very hot shooting Scarlet Knights squad. Against Wisconsin, the Spartans looked listless and were ice cold from the field. Michigan State has now lost two games in a row, three of the last five contests and four of the last seven overall.

How much has this mid-season skid impacted the trajectory of Michigan State’s season? Let’s dive into the numbers.

Enhanced Big Ten Standings and Updated Odds​

Table 1 gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 11. Note that all the changes in value are relative to last week’s full update, just before the loss to Rutgers.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 11, 2022


Despite the disastrous week for the Spartans, Michigan State is still just a game out of first place in the loss column. Furthermore, the two teams tied for first place — Illinois and Wisconsin — are currently grading out as two of the “luckiest” teams in the conference. There is a school of thought that both teams are due for an unexpected loss.

That said, Michigan State is now also only “plus two” in the plus/minus metric as the two home losses are partially offsetting the four road victories. Rutgers is only a half-game behind the Spartans, and Michigan is now less than a tenth of a point behind Michigan State in adjusted efficiency margin. Just 12 days ago, the Wolverines seemed likely to miss the postseason altogether.

In other words, the Spartans are currently playing more like a bubble team than a team that can play in the second week of the NCAA Tournament.

The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 11.


Michigan State’s expected conference win total has dropped by almost two games down to just 11.96, which suggests a final record of 12-8 is now most likely. A record of 14-6 or better now has odds of just 13 percent, while getting to a record of 15-5 or better now has odds below three percent.

Table 3 below gives the updated odds to at least share the Big Ten regular season title as of Feb. 11.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams.


At mid-week, Purdue appeared to have taken command of the Big Ten race following a convincing win over Illinois. But, on Thursday night, the Boilermakers laid an egg against Michigan in Ann Arbor to the benefit of their competition. The Illini are back on top of the odds table with just above a 50 percent chance to at least share the regular season title. Purdue and Wisconsin have similar odds at close to 40 percent.

Ohio State and Michigan State are the only other teams with odds currently over one percent. While the Spartans’ current odds of just three percent look low (and they are), they are twice as high as they were before the Purdue loss.

The Boilermakers’ loss also increased the odds that the eventual champion will finish with a record no better than 15-5. The odds are basically 50-50 that any team surpasses 15 wins. The overall math suggests that if the Spartans can rally and somehow win seven of the final eight games, there is a 66 percent chance that the regular season will end with a banner being raised to the rafters in the Breslin center.

Big Ten Tournament and Strengths of Schedule​

If the season ended today, that would be weird, because there are still 52 Big Ten games left on the full schedule. Fortunately, we can use projected point spreads and simulations to get a sneak peek on how the Big Ten Tournament seeding might play out. Table 4 below summarizes the odds for each team to earn each seed.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb 11, 2022. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update.


The most likely Big Ten Tournament seed for the Spartans is currently the No. 5 seed, and right now there is only a 28 percent chance that Michigan State will move back up into the top-four and reserve a double-bye.

What is even more troubling is that if all of the favorites were to win all 52 remaining Big Ten games, MSU would wind up tied with Michigan as 12-8 and the Wolverines would win the tiebreaker due to their win over Purdue. MSU would then slide down to the No. 6 seed.

Table 5 below gives the odds for each Big Ten team to advance in the Big Ten tournament.

Table 5: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of Feb. 11.


The odds of a regular season championship are fading. At this point it is twice as likely that Michigan State would earn a banner for winning the Big Ten Tournament than for the regular season title.

Figure 1 below provides an update on the Big Ten strength of schedule data.


Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule both overall (left) and of the remaining conference games (right) as of Feb. 11.

Despite being only a game back in the loss column from first place, Figure 1 helps to explain Michigan State’s very long odds for a Big Ten title. Not only has MSU’s efficiency decreased (which reduces our faith in the Spartans’ ability to win any of the remaining games), Michigan State has the third most difficult remaining conference schedule. An average Power Five team would be expected to win just over half of the Spartans’ remaining games.

By contrast, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue, Iowa and Illinois are all now in the bottom half of the conference for schedule difficulty. The good news for Michigan State is that the Spartans will have a chance to hand four of those five teams a loss before the end of the year (with Wisconsin being the exception).

Michigan State’s Kenpom Trajectory and Remaining Schedule​

Figure 2 below provides an update to the Kenpom efficiency scatter plot, the format of which has been explained previously.


Figure 2: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot as of Feb. 11.

Perhaps nothing shows the dramatic turn that Michigan State’s season has taken more clearly than Figure 2. The loss at Rutgers caused the Spartans’ defensive efficiency to drop by almost two points per hundred possessions. The loss to Wisconsin pushed down both offensive and defensive efficiency.

For several weeks, the 2022 Spartans had a profile that closely resembled the 2010 Final Four team. As of today, the team’s profile now more closely resembles that of either the 2002 team or the 2017 team, neither of which escaped from the first weekend.

Finally, Figure 3 below gives an overview of MSU’s remaining Big Ten games, including projected point spreads and win probabilities for the final eight contests on the schedule.


Figure 3: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins.

From a big-picture point of view, Michigan State is still projected to be favored in four of the final eight games. That said, the odds of each individual win are now depressed due to the Spartans’ depressing performance of late. As the Spartans’ current record of 8-4 and current expected win total of 11.93 suggest, four more wins is also mathematically the most likely.

That all said, there is still room for optimism. All of my calculations assume that the Spartans will play only as well going forward as their average performance would suggest to this point in the season. We have all seen that this team can play better than it did last week. In fact, history suggests that the Spartans will play better as we enter the home stretch of the Big Ten season.

That all starts with today’s contest with Indiana. If the Spartans can beat the Hoosiers and find a way to beat Penn State on the road on Tuesday, the team will be sitting exactly where I predicted they would be two weeks ago. At that point, my prediction was that MSU would still be competing for a Big Ten championship in the final week of the season.

But as I like to say, probability is not destiny. Just because past MSU teams rebounded in mid-February does not mean that this one will. That is why we play the games.

That is all for today. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, beat the Hoosiers!

a former player Chris Bogas a really great guy had brain surgery this week, and is recovering. Thoughts and prayers go out to his family Julie and the kids and hope Chris gets back on his feet soon coaching.

This team has officially “screwed the pooch”. Can’t score goals…can’t seem to win…devoid of the necessary overall talent to compete for championships. I think we all know what has to be done…but I won’t hold my breath. I know…blah..blah..blah preaching to the choir.

Once again, I feel the need to say that I did warn you, Michigan State fans. The first week of February is rarely smooth in East Lansing, and Michigan State’s loss to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Saturday is merely the latest data point in a trend line that extends at least a decade into the past. The “Bermuda triangle” struck again, this time on the Jersey Shore.

With the loss, the Spartans are a half-game out of second place in the updated Big Ten standings, as shown below in Table 1. Based on the loss column and the plus/minus metric, the Spartans are just one game back, with multiple contests remaining against the other current conference title contenders.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 7, 2021.


That said, the loss to Rutgers certainly had a major impact on the Spartans’ prospects of claiming yet another Big Ten regular season title. Not only did the blowout add another costly loss to the conference record, but the magnitude of the loss has both shaken the confidence of the Michigan State faithful and negatively impacted the Spartans’ overall efficiency.

In other words, neither the fans nor the computers view Michigan State in quite the same way that they did prior to Saturday’s game. More quantitatively, Table 1 below shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 7.


Michigan State’s expected win total is down over a full game to 12.8, which is only fifth-best in the league. This means that the Spartans’ most likely final record is 13-7. The math now suggests that Michigan State has a 31 percent chance to post a final record of 14-6 or better and a 12 percent chance of finishing with a record of 15-5 or better.

As for the updated odds to at least share the regular season Big Ten title, those odds are shown below in Table 3.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning team.


All of the contenders other than Michigan State had a very solid weekend. As a result, Illinois and Purdue are at the head of the class and both teams have just over 50 percent odds to claim the title at the end of the year. Ohio State and Wisconsin are in a dead heat for second place with around 12 percent odds. The Spartans’ odds tumbled to just seven percent.

The bad news is that the math suggests that there is now almost a 75 percent chance that a record of 16-4, or better, will be needed to win the regular season conference title. The Spartans most likely have only a single mulligan left unless they get a little help and hope that the upset gremlin bites some of the other contenders in the next month.

The good news is that Michigan State still has one game remaining versus all of the conference contenders. The Spartans are still very much in control of their own destiny. Also, while history shows that the Spartans tend to struggle in early February, they also tend to come on strong in mid-to-late February. It would not be strange at all for the Spartans to overachieve, relative to the expected win total, for the rest of the season.

So, while the loss to Rutgers certainly stings, there is still room for optimism.

As for some of the other metrics that I track, I will simply summarize the updated numbers briefly until the next full update later in the week.

• Michigan State now projects as the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament with almost exactly a 50 percent chance to earn a top-four seed and double-bye
• Michigan State’s remaining schedule is now the third-most difficult in the Big Ten. Illinois’ remaining schedule ranks No. 5 and Purdue’s ranks No. 7 in difficulty.
• The Spartans’ defensive efficiency took a nosedive with the loss to Rutgers, and as a result, their metrics are no longer consistent with past national champions

In all fairness, I did warn everyone that early February can be bumpy in East Lansing.

On Tuesday night at Maryland, the Michigan State Spartans men’s basketball team barely survived a surprisingly stiff road test from the Terrapins. Michigan State blew a 15-point second half lead, but was bailed out by Malik Hall in the final seconds.

The good news is that MSU has a lot of players who have the potential to act as the hero on any given night. Just this season, Marcus Bingham Jr. (versus Loyola Chicago) and Joey Hauser (against Minnesota) join Hall as Spartans who have hit game-winning shots in the final seconds of games. Gabe Brown also hit a three-pointer with under a minute to play to essentially clinch a win over Northwestern in Evanston.

The bad news is that the Spartans have needed a hero to close out several teams who will likely not be playing in the NCAA Tournament in March. Michigan State has a lot of weapons, but it has seldom been firing at the same time.

As we come to the midpoint of the Big Ten season, now is the time for head coach Tom Izzo to tighten the final screws. January is often a month of exploration and experimentation in East Lansing. February is a month for fine tuning while chasing trophies and banners. With another (albeit ugly) win on the Spartans’ ledger, how much closer are those banners? Let’s check the numbers.

Enhanced Big Ten Standings and Updated Odds​

Table 1 gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 3. Note that all the changes in value are relative to last week’s full update, which was prior to the win over Michigan.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 4, 2021.


Michigan State is currently sitting half of a game out of first place behind Illinois and half of a game in front of Purdue and Wisconsin. Ohio State is tied with the Boilermakers and Badgers in the loss column with three each. I will also note that the top five teams in the league are all “plus-three,” which means that they have three more road victories than home losses.

The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 4.


Now that the Big Ten has rescheduled most of the previously postponed games, I am making the assumption that all teams will somehow play all 20 originally scheduled games. That said, the weather-related postponement of the Ohio State/Iowa game on Thursday, coupled with the already postponed Ohio State at Nebraska game, could make this challenging. I cannot be certain that the Buckeyes will get all of those games in, but I will make that assumption for now.

Purdue still boasts the best Kenpom efficiency in the conference, and as a result, the Boilermakers have the highest expected conference win total at 15.0. Illinois is less than one game behind at 14.4 and Michigan State is third at 13.9. Wisconsin has dropped to fourth place at 13.5 and Ohio State is in fifth at 13.4.

The current numbers suggest that Michigan State has a 36 percent chance to finish with a record of 15-5 or better. The odds of a record of 16-4 or better now sit as 15 percent.

Table 3 below gives the updated odds to at least share the Big Ten regular season title as of Feb. 4.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams.


Despite still being a game out of first place, Purdue holds a large lead in odds with a 55 percent chance to at least share the regular season title. By virtue of beating Wisconsin on Wednesday night, Illinois’ odds are up to 33 percent (and the Badgers’ odds are down to 14 percent, which is just a fraction of a percent below Ohio State’s odds).

The Spartans’ regular season Big Ten odds are now up to 26 percent, which are as high as they have been since Michigan State’s win over Nebraska on Jan. 5.

Big Ten Tournament and Strengths of Schedule​

If the season ended today, that would be weird, because there are still 67 Big Ten games left on the full schedule. Fortunately, we can use projected point spreads and simulations to get a sneak peek on how the Big Ten Tournament seeding might play out. Table 4 below summarizes the odds for each team to earn each seed.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb 4, 2022. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update.


The Spartans are still projecting as either the No. 3 seed (based on total odds) or No. 4 seed (based on the scenario where the projected favorite wins all the remaining Big Ten games) in the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan State currently has a 73 percent chance to earn a coveted double-bye.

Table 5 below gives the odds for each Big Ten team to advance in the Big Ten tournament.

Table 5: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of Feb. 4.


Michigan State has a 12 percent chance of winning the Big Ten Tournament, based on the Kenpom efficiency margin of each Big Ten team.

Figure 1 below provides an update on the Big Ten strength of schedule data.


Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule both overall (left) and of the remaining conference games (right) as of Feb. 4.

The Spartans continue to have the second-easiest conference schedule overall, but their remaining schedule is now the sixth-most difficult. It is almost a full game/win harder than Wisconsin’s remaining schedule and over a game-and-a-half harder than Ohio State’s remaining schedule. That said, it is also about a half-game easier than Illinois’ remaining schedule.

Michigan State’s Kenpom Trajectory and Remaining Schedule​

Figure 2 below provides an update to the Kenpom efficiency scatter plot, the format of which has been explained previously.


Figure 2: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot as of Feb. 4.

Michigan State continues to reside in the lower left portion of a blue-shaded “championship zone.” In other words, Michigan State’s current combination of offensive and defensive efficiency is in the ballpark of a few past dark horse NCAA champions. The Spartans are one of only 13 current teams with that resume. Illinois is the only other Big Ten team with a comparable resume, as Purdue’s defensive efficiency is not currently good enough to make the cut.

The profile of the 2021-2022 Michigan State team currently most resembles MSUs 2010 Final Four team. As the green oval shows, the Spartans seem likely to remain in this championship zone for the rest of the season, but a substantial improvement in average efficiency at this point in the season (to resemble the 2009 or 2020 team, for example) is unlikely.

Finally, Figure 3 below gives an overview of MSU’s remaining Big Ten schedule, including projected point spreads and win probabilities.


Figure 3: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins.

Interestingly, the next three games at Rutgers and then at home versus Wisconsin and Indiana all project to have almost identical spreads and victory probabilities. The math would suggest that the Spartans are expected to win two of those three contests. If MSU can sweep all three of these contests, the Spartans’ expected win total should top 15.0 games, which would then push the Big Ten title odds up close to 50 percent.

The two subsequent games at Penn State and at home versus Illinois project to be slightly tougher. The math suggests that there is only a 40 percent chance that Michigan State will win both games. Overall, if the Spartans can win at least four of the next five games, their Big Ten title odds should continue to rise. If MSU drops two of the next five, those odds will drop.

Following the Illinois game, the next four games all look to be close to a pick’em, especially the home game versus Purdue and the now rescheduled road game at Michigan. A split over those four games would be a narrow victory overall, based on current expectations. Winning three of those games would be a very good sign, especially if one of those wins comes over Purdue.

There are a lot of ways to parse the data, but the bottom line is that 16-4 still projects to be the record that most likely will be needed to win the Big Ten. Table 3 suggests that there is a two-thirds chance that this statement is true. As such, the Spartans can likely only afford two more Big Ten losses. If MSU drops a third game on the backend of the schedule, a Big Ten title is still possible, but less likely.

But, not all wins are equal. If Michigan State can find a way to beat most or all of the main contenders (Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue and Ohio State), a record of 15-5 might be good enough to hang a banner, as it would force those teams to essentially run the table otherwise to remain in contention. That said, if MSU wins most of those games, it seems reasonable that the Spartans will finish with at least 16 conference wins anyway.

Regardless, it is early February and Michigan State is solidly in Big Ten regular season title contention. The next few games will be tough, but they are all very winnable. If Coach Izzo can continue to fine tune this roster and get his weapons all pointed in the same direction at the same time, this team could be very dangerous.

That is all for today. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, beat Rutgers!

Here is my NSD feature on Katin Houser. Good stuff from him today. He has an edge about him that reminds me of guys like Thorne and Cousins. Notice when we talks about Thorne he doesn't say he is going to wait till he graduates. He is motivated to catch up to him. That's one of those subtle deals. The fact that he hasn't been coddled is another thing that reminds me of Thorne and Cousins. He's going to work for it.

https://michiganstate.rivals.com/news/houser-eager-to-earn-his-way-at-michigan-state

Here is my feature on Germie Bernard:

Katin Houser had some really good things to say about him. Houser wanted him in this class badly. Believes in him and that is important. Houser said Bernard is already turning heads in 7-on-7.

Glad everything worked out for Bernard. Tough spot to be in with the way things went down at Washington.

Here is a tweet of mine with the updated data:

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The key numbers are:

• MSU's expected win total is now at 13.9
• The odds to finish at 15-5 or better are 36% (which gives MSU a 50/50 shot at the title)
• The odds to finish at 16-4 or better are 15% (which gives MSU a >90% shot at the title)
• Overall, MSU title odds at at 28%, which is tied with Illinois, but behind Purdue at 49%
• MSU still projects as the No. 3 seed in the BTT and the odds for a double bye are 73%
• As for tonight, a Minnesota upset of Purdue would boost MSU's odds to 33%
• The results of the Illinois / Wisconsin game will affect those two teams a lot, but the impact on MSU's odds are minimal.
• Wisconsin's remaining schedule is a little easier than Illinois' schedule, so if you want a tie-breaker, that is it... Go Badgers?

I will plan a full update on Friday.

It always feels good to beat your rival. It feels better when you beat them at home by double-digits, and it feels even better when you can say that you have now beaten them 11 of the last 16 times. It is a good time in history to be a fan of the Michigan State Spartans basketball team.

My usual schedule is to provide an update on Michigan State’s expected win total, conference title odds, and Big Ten Tournament prospects about once a week. However, it seems fair to provide a quick update today on the impact of the Spartans’ big win as well as to take a sneak peek at the coming week, which is perhaps bigger than you might think.

Let’s start with a lightning round version of my typical odds update (note that this data is as of Jan. 31 and does not reflect the results of Penn State’s victory over Iowa on Monday night, which has minimal impact on the odds anyway).

Updated Big Ten Odds​

With the win over the Wolverines on Saturday and the other weekend action, here are the updated odds for each team to or share the Big Ten regular season title.

Table 1: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Jan. 31.


The Spartans clearly got a boost due to the results of this weekend. But the win over Michigan only added a few percentage points to Michigan State’s current odds of 24 percent, which is just behind Illinois and in a virtual tie with Wisconsin. The majority of the 10 percentage-point increase in odds was due to the announcement on Monday that the game in Ann Arbor with the Wolverines has been rescheduled for March 1. As a result, there are no longer any scenarios where a team could win or lose the title by a half game.

As for an update on the other notable statistics, I now have Michigan State’s expected conference win total at 13.67. The odds of winning 14 or more games are 55 percent. The odds of winning 15 or more games are 31 percent, and the odds of winning at least 16 games are 13 percent. A record of 16-4 or better is good enough to win the Big Ten regular season championship in over 90 percent of all scenarios.

The Spartans are still projected as the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament with just under a 70 percent chance to secure a top-four double-bye. Michigan State’s odds to win the Big Ten Tournament ticked up a couple of percentage points to 13 percent.

Beware the Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle​

Prior to the win over the Wolverines this past weekend, the Spartans had lost two of the past three games in frustrating fashion (losing to Northwestern by two points and losing to Illinois by one point). To fans, it feels like Michigan State does this almost every year. It is the very nature of college basketball that good teams sometimes take bad losses. It happens. However, it is the timing of the skid that feels so familiar.

A few years back, @Carl_N pointed out on this board that this is a real effect. Carl showed data that over the last 20 years or so, Michigan State’s winning percentage took a noticeable dip in late January and early February. Carl dubbed this effect “Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle.” It was a very nice analysis and insight from Carl (and I hope that I am correctly remembering the details!)

I decided to also dig into this phenomena from a few different angles. I have a good database of MSU game results and spread data back to the 2005-2006 season through the 2020-2021 season. I decided to study this effect using three factors: raw win percentage, performance against the spread and performance relative to the Las Vegas spread expectation (which I will explain a bit later).

Let’s start with the raw win percentage and the performance against the spread data in Figure 1.


Figure 1: Michigan State's raw win percentage (left panel) and performance against the final Vegas line (right panel) for the 2006-2021 seasons as a function of time (days from the beginning of season).

In these two figures, I am calculating the seven-day average of the Spartans’ performance for the 2006 to the 2021 season. Over this span and overall, Michigan State has won slightly more than 70 percent of its games straight up and is just over 50 percent against the spread. These average values are shown as the green, horizontal line on each graph for reference.

While the data in both graphs fluctuates, there is only one part of each graph where there are several data points in a row that deviate noticeably from the average. The area of each graph is highlighted with the dashed oval and it spans a roughly three-week period from mid-January to the early part of February. During this time, on average, the Spartans’ raw win percentage and performance against the spread dip by about 10 percentage points. This is the “Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle.”

But raw win percentage and covering the spread (or not) is perhaps not the best metric. The former does not account for the strength of the opponent and the latter does not account for winning or losing. Both metrics are also binary (either “win” or “lose”), which makes quantification more challenging.

Therefore, I decided to run the numbers one more way that combines the best of both worlds. For each Michigan State game back to 2006, it is possible to calculate the odds that MSU should have won each of those games based on the final Vegas line. This “performance (a win or a loss) against the Vegas expectation” (or PAVE) is a scaled metric that accounts for winning and losing and the strength of the opponent. In my weekly odds update, this is essentially equivalent to the metric that I refer to as “luck.”

In order to understand the PAVE metric, consider a situation where Michigan State is a 13-point favorite in a game. The odds of a Spartan win are 90 percent, based on historical data. If the Spartans win that game, it is just slightly better than expected. Mathematically, I would credit Michigan State with +0.1 of a win (or 1.0 minus 0.9) over expectation. However, if the Spartans were to lose that game, it would be a big hit. In this case the game would count as -0.9 of a win (or 0.0 minus 0.9).

In cases where the Spartans are a big underdog, the situation is reversed. In a game where Michigan State is a 13-point underdog, an upset win would earn the Green and White +0.9 of a win, but a loss would only subtract 0.1 of a win from the total. Games that are near toss-ups simply add or subtract roughly 0.5 of a win, depending on the exact spread.

Using this method, it is possible to track the Spartans trajectory, relative to expectation, throughout the course of each season. The best representation of the data that I could think of was to track the cumulative average PAVE metric as a function of the number of days from the beginning of the season. That data is shown below in Figure 2, and it is striking.


Figure 2: Cumulative average PAVE for Michigan State for the 2006-2021 seasons as a function of days from the start of the season.

The graph above appears to accurately trace the trajectory of an “average” Michigan State season. The first few games can be a bit rough, but then momentum (and the number of wins) starts to build into the start of the new year. The metric holds steady in early January, but in late January or early February, there is a crash. Then, there is a strong surge where the Spartans tend to overachieve for the rest of the season, right into March Madness.

Sounds familiar, right?

Granted, there are bumps along the road. There seems to be a dip right before Christmas and another dip right at the end of February, but the overall shape of the curve is very telling.

There is also a lot of variance in the data from year to year. Some years don’t follow this pattern at all, but more than half do. Figure 3 below shows the PAVE data for nine selected individual years back to 2007.


Figure 3: Cumulative PAVE for a series of individual Michigan State seasons.

In each case I have highlighted the apparent “mid-season dip.” It tends to start and end at slightly different times and has lasted for less than a week or over a month. Taken together, however, it is possible to define, on average, when the “Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle” occurs:

On average, it starts on Jan. 18 and lasts until Feb. 6, or for about 19 days. Figure 2 also implies that it is most severe during the first week of February — or in other words, right now.

What’s Next For Michigan State?​

So, what does all this mean?

In situations like these, it is always hard to separate cause, effect and mere coincidence. That said, my scientific training tells me that there is a trend here and that there is likely something behind it. My working hypothesis is that it relates to the way that Coach Izzo structures his program. I think that there is a method to his brilliance, whether he realizes it or not.

The beginning stage of the season is when Coach Izzo and the staff just try to understand what pieces that they have and how they fit together. In mid-season, Izzo goes into the lab and starts to tinker. He understands his team and he is trying to figure out how to get the most out of his players. Izzo is trying to tighten the screws in order to optimize his squad’s output. This is when the dip tends to happen. It is a mid-season set of growing pains.

Once February hits in earnest, Izzo shifts into full postseason mode. He knows what he has and has pushed his players to be the best possible versions of themselves for the given year. At this point, it is time to just turn them loose. It doesn’t always work, but the trophy case in Breslin Center is a pretty good indicator of the success of this “strategy.”

If nothing else, Figure 2 gives a very quantitative measure of this success. Over the past 16 seasons, the Spartans have won a total of 11 games more than the Vegas lines projected from Feb. 9 to the end of the year. I doubt any other team or coach in the country could boast such an accomplishment.

As for the remainder of the 2021 season, this analysis can perhaps give us a preview of what to expect. Figure 4 below shows the projected point spreads and win probabilities for the Spartans’ remaining schedule.


Figure 3: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margin.

At first glance, this looks promising. MSU is projected to be the favorite in the next six games. But, historically, the Spartans tend to underachieve — sometimes badly — in early February. The next two road games at Maryland and at Rutgers look like they should be wins. History tells me that these games are big trouble. Can the Spartans buck that trend in 2022?

The probabilities shown in Figure 3 suggest that, nominally, Michigan State would only be expected to win four of the next six games. History suggests the total might not be that high. Despite the emotional win over Michigan, the Spartans are right in the middle of the Bermuda Triangle. Weird things may continue to happen. I would not be shocked to see the Spartans drop two or even three games in that stretch.

The good news, however, is that the toughest stretch of the season occurs right as Michigan State is typically starting to peak. If the Spartans can weather the storm of the next week or so, I do believe that a strong finish to the season is certainly possible, if not likely.

I could easily see Michigan State entering the home game with Illinois on Feb. 19 with a 10-4 conference record and most pundits and fans counting Michigan State out of the Big Ten race. However, I could also imagine MSU getting hot and rattling off five (or even all six) wins in a row to share the title at 15-5 or 16-4.

The math suggests a 3-3 split of the final six games on the schedule is the most likely result, at least for your average college basketball team. But as Michigan State fans know, MSU in late February and March is far from average. Izzo simply laughs in the face of mathematics, at least one he clears the Bermuda Triangle.

So hold on tight, MSU fans. It might be bumpy over the next few weeks, but it is likely to turn out OK in the end. The skipper has traversed this course before and he knows what he is doing.

That is all for today. Until next time, enjoy, and Go Green!

Dickinson today against:

Bingham: 3-for-8, 2/2 FTs, 1 TO
Hauser: 1-for-5, 2/2 FTs
Marble: 2-for-4, 2/2 FTs, 2 TOs
Sissoko: 2-for-2, 2/3 FTs

HD also had only 3 rebounds after the 15:39 mark of the 1st half, two of which were with less than 2:30 to play.

He also did not score or get a rebound at all in the first 12 minutes of the second half.

Here is a finalized list of the prospects who will be heading to East Lansing today and tomorrow

The last week or so of Michigan State basketball has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride. A week ago, the Spartans were coming off a demoralizing loss to the shorthanded Northwestern Wildcats at home to snap a nine-game winning streak.

Then, the Spartans went to Madison last Friday and dominated a top-10-ranked Wisconsin team in the Badgers’ own building. But, a few days later, the Spartans were ice cold from the field and a little sloppy once more in a narrow defeat in Champaign, Illinois to the Illini.

It has been the story of one step forward and one step back for the Spartans. Is the 2022 version of Michigan State a true Big Ten title contender or not? While it is not unprecedented for a Tom Izzo coached team to see some slippage in the middle of the Big Ten season, the current lack of consistency is frustrating.

Where does the last week of action leave the Big Ten race? Once again, let’s dig into the numbers.

Enhanced Big Ten Standings and Updated Odds​

Table 1 gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 28.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 28, 2022.


The Spartans spent a few days alone at the top of the standings following the win over Wisconsin. However, the results of the past week have left Michigan State in a tie for second place with Ohio State. The Spartans and Buckeyes are now a half-game behind Illinois and Wisconsin in the standings.

Note from Table 1 that the Badgers currently lead the conference in luck at +2.15 games, while Purdue has almost a full game (-0.95) of “negative luck.”

The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Jan. 28.


Despite splitting the last two games, Michigan State’s expected win total has increased by almost a full game to 12.68. The Spartans are now most likely to finish at 13-6 overall with a 32 percent chance to get to 14-5 or better and a 13 percent chance to reach a record of 15-4 or better.

Table 3 below gives the updated odds to at least share the Big Ten regular season title as of Jan. 28.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams.


A lot has changed since the previous update. Purdue is once again projected to be the favorite to win the Big Ten regular season with odds of 46 percent. The Boilermakers picked up two wins this week, including a big road win over Iowa on Thursday. Purdue has also rescheduled the road game at Michigan, which will now be played on Feb. 10, and adding the game has bolstered the Boilermakers’ title odds by about five percentage points.

This is due to the fact that the Boilers can now tie in the final standings with either Illinois and/or Wisconsin. If the 20th game on Purdue’s schedule was not played, then the Boilermakers were in real danger of finishing a half-game out of first place.

As for the Spartans, Michigan State’s current Big Ten title odds stand at 14 percent. While this is roughly double the odds following the loss to Northwestern, MSU’s odds were around 25 percent after the win at Wisconsin and would have been close to 40 percent if the Spartans had managed to down Illinois.

The rescheduling of the Purdue/Michigan game also has a slight negative impact on Michigan State’s championship odds. If that game was not played, Michigan State and Purdue could have finished tied in the standings. Now, the Spartans will need to beat Purdue by a half-game in order to hang a regular season banner this year.

Big Ten Tournament and Strengths of Schedule​

If the season ended today, that would be weird, because there are still 76 Big Ten games left on the schedule. Fortunately, we can use projected point spreads and simulations to get a sneak peak on how the Big Ten Tournament might play out. Table 4 below summarizes the odds for each team to earn each seed.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Jan. 28, 2022. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update.


Michigan State is now projected to be the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament or even the No. 3 seed in the single scenario where the projected favorite wins all 76 of the remaining conference games. The Spartans’ odds of claiming the double-bye in the tournament currently stand at 63 percent.

Right now, the top-five teams in the conference (Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State and Ohio State) are jockeying for only four double-bye spots in the conference tournament. One of those five teams is going to lose out when the music stops at the end of the regular season.

Table 5 below gives the odds for each Big Ten team to advance in the Big Ten tournament.

Table 5: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of Jan. 28.


The advanced metrics such as Kenpom efficiencies (which is the key input to my simulations) still suggest that Purdue is the best team in the Big Ten by a noticeable margin. As a result, the Boilermakers have the best Big Ten Tournament odds at 38 percent. Illinois (15 percent) and Michigan State (12 percent) round out the top-three teams.

Figure 1 below provides an update on the Big Ten strength of schedule data.


Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule both overall (left) and of the remaining conference games (right) as of Jan. 28.

With two tough road games now in the rearview mirror, Michigan State’s remaining schedule (right panel) is now in the middle of the pack in the conference (seventh-most difficult) and similar in difficulty to Purdue’s and Ohio State’s remaining schedules.

Wisconsin’s remaining schedule is the easiest of the current five contenders, while Illinois has one of the toughest remaining slates. Note that the Michigan Wolverines still own the hardest remaining schedules, especially after rescheduling the game against Purdue.

Michigan State’s Kenpom Trajectory and Remaining Schedule​

Figure 2 below provides an update to the Kenpom efficiency scatter plot, the format of which has been explained previously.


Figure 2: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot as of Jan. 28.

The figure visualizes something that many Michigan State fans are also feeling. The Spartans have essentially been going in circles in the region of the graph where they are just barely still a potential national title contender. The 2022 team’s current offensive and defensive efficiencies are very similar to both the 2007 team (which lost a tough second round game to No. 1 seed North Carolina) and the 2010 Final Four team.

The best case scenario for the Spartans would be to improve enough on offense and defense so that the team starts to resemble the 2020 team or the 2009 teams that made the national final game. However, as the green oval indicates, time is running out for Michigan State to realistically expect that much improvement by Selection Sunday.

That all said, Michigan State is currently one of only 14 total teams with the current offensive and defensive efficiencies of past national champions. Illinois is the only other Big Ten team in that group, as are Baylor, UCONN and Kansas — all of whom MSU has already faced this year.

Finally, Figure 3 below gives an overview of Michigan State’s remaining Big Ten schedule, including projected point spreads and win probabilities.


Figure 3: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins.

The good news for MSU is that the Spartans are projected to be favored in each of the team’s next seven games. That said, the projected point spreads are all less than six points, which suggests two to three upsets in that stretch is certainly possible, if not likely.

The final stretch run of the season continues to look challenging, but there is no reason to expect that Michigan State cannot steal a few wins in the stretch where the Spartans travel to Iowa, host Purdue and travel to Ohio State.

Based on the data in Table 2 and 3 above, Michigan State likely needs to get to a record of at least 15-4 to have a reasonable chance to win the conference title. The Spartans have about a 66 percent chance to hang a banner with this record.

IF Michigan State can win its next six games, then MSU could likely drop two of the next four games against Illinois, Iowa, Purdue and Ohio State, and still have a good shot. However, Coach Izzo is the master of getting his team to peak in late February and March.

Even if the Spartans drop a game at Rutgers or at Penn State (for example), MSU will likely still control its own destiny down the stretch with opportunities to dole out losses to almost all of the other conference contenders. In other words, try not to freak out if Michigan State drops another game (or even two) that it “should win” in the next few weeks. I think that this schedule sets up well for success in late February.

But, a key part of winning the next six games is to win the next one on the schedule, which just so happens to be a home game with the archrival Michigan Wolverines on Saturday. To this end, I will leave you simply with Go State, beat the Skunk Bears!