Hadn't seen this posted yet. On paper this is a good looking class.
https://msuspartans.com/news/2021/2/9/mens-ice-hockey-spartan-hockey-signs-five-for-2021-22.aspx

I just have a few random thoughts about this year's team and where they are:

1) What would have happened if MSU were to have played Virginia?

MSU was rolling and UVA was struggling. If MSU were to have played and won, that would sure have been a VERY nice win on the resume. Or, would MSU just have been exposed earlier?

2) How would we view this team in MSU would have not choked in the last 30 sec against Purdue?

If MSU wins that game, we are 5-6 in Big Ten play in the middle of the pack. I think most brackets would still have MSU "in" and the narrative would be that MSU just got rolling after a tough stretch in December, but COVID messed them up for a few games and now they are figuring things out again. All that due to 30 bad seconds

3) If things are going to get fixed, it almost had to happen this week.

MSU has been in East Lansing for over a week. The "late January / early February Bermuda triangle" is now past. COVID or no-COVID, this is Tom Izzo time. He doesn't have the usual full playbook, but it's time to tighten down all the screws that can be tightened. MSU hits the road again next week, but then only leaves the state once more (at Maryland) prior to the BTT. That is enough time (I think) to squeeze some more out of these guys.

4) Will the rotation finally get tightened?

I was looking at some of the box scores over the past few years and it is crazy to compare minutes to this year's team. X and Cash were playing almost the entire game and this year it is like everybody is played 25 minutes. It seems like it is time to pick your top 9 guys and go with it, ride or die.

5) I still believe that we will see some good, if not great moments from this team.

The progress that the bigs showed against Penn State was important. Now, it is time for guys like Rocket and Gabe to get back to a level of consistency. Shooting has been a train-wreck, but all of these guys have proven that they can shoot. The defense has been great at times, the turnover issue has been solved... at times. This team just needs to get it all together at the same time. I think that it can happen. I think that it will happen at some point. I know the schedule is tough, but I see no reason why this team can't get hot and beat 2-3 ranked teams in a row. That still might only be good enough to get to 8-12 or 9-11, but that gets MSU back into the conversation.

I won't be shocked if some day soon this team just has a flat out great night and beats a team like Iowa, Ohio State, Illinois, or Michigan... by a lot. On the other hand, I won't be shocked if they lose all of the rest of their games. But, I think that it is more likely than not that this team flashes, more than once, before the end of the season. The question is, will it be enough to keep the streak alive?

And... if it is and if MSU can beat a few ranked Big Ten teams... why can't they win a few games in March? The season is far from over. I still believe in magic.

Munn Renovations

Looking good.

Red Wings power play vs. MSU's power play .... who scores first....

MSU's power play is 3 for 48 this year .... 6.25%
Detroit's power play is 4 for 43 this year .... 9.3%

Ever? This sucks.

It has been a very long time since the Michigan State Spartans basketball team tasted victory. If you combine the almost three-week COVID pause and a four-game losing streak, MSU officially went a full month without a win. On Saturday night, the Green and White defeated last place Nebraska by 10 points to officially get off of the schneid. The Spartans moved to 9-7 overall (3-7 in Big Ten play).

Earlier in the week, MSU traveled to Iowa City and came close to stealing a victory against the top-10 Hawkeyes. But, Josh Langford’s shot to tie the game rimmed out and the Spartans were once again denied a potentially momentum-altering, if not season-altering win. As mentioned, as it stands now, MSU is 3-7 in Big Ten play at the half-way point of the season, assuming all of the postponed games are made up.

On some level, a close loss on the road to a ranked team followed by a double-digit win feels like progress. On the other hand, MSU’s performance against Nebraska did not inspire a lot of confidence that the Spartans are not improving quickly enough to salvage the season. The team is still plagued by turnovers, poor shooting, inconsistent point guard play, and spotty defense.

Perhaps most importantly, only one or two of MSU keys players (Aaron Henry, Josh Langford, Rocket Watts, and Joey Hauser) seem able to have even just an average game at the same time. If these factors do not improve, MSU’s season is going to continue to be stuck in the COVID quagmire.

These observations are largely subjective and as such they can only be trusted so much. My approach has always been to use the cold, hard numbers to supplement what our eyeballs are telling us. As such, I will continue to take a look at the numbers for MSU and the rest of the Big Ten to see where we are and where things might go.

Current Standings and Odds Update

As usual, here are the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as February 7th, 2021 (prior to Indiana's upset win over Iowa on Sunday, which is not reflected in any of the calculations or commentary below.)

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten basketball standings, as of the morning of February 7th, 2021


The updated Big Ten win matrix and regular season championship matrix are both shown below in Tables 2 and 3.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten win matrix as of the morning of February 7th, 2021


Table 3: Updated regular season Big Ten title odds as of the morning of February 7th, 2021


In addition, my calculated luck metric (actual wins minus expected wins) is summarized below in Figure 1.


Figure 1: Summary of the luck metric for Big Ten teams, as of February 7th, 2021.

In the overall standings, MSU has at least moved ahead of Northwestern and into 12th place. The only other mildly encouraging factors are that MSU is still only at minus one in the road-win-minus-home-loss metric. From this point of view, the Spartans are only two games back of Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

Also, MSU continues to be the least lucky team in the Big Ten. There is a path back to some level of success by merely defending home court and getting a lucky break here or there. If the Breslin Center can continue to be Home, Sweet Home, as most Big Ten arenas have been this year, things might not be quite as bad as they seem. Hitting roughly one more three-pointer in Iowa City would have perhaps counted as a lucky break.

Overall, MSU’s expected win total in conference play is still slightly below six wins, assuming all 20 games eventually get played, which is essentially exactly where MSU was following the loss against Ohio State. I estimate MSU’s odds to scratch back to .500 at only one percent and the odds to make it to 8-12 at only 14 percent.

As for the rest of the Big Ten, Michigan remains in the driver’s seat with a two-game lead and odds of close to 75 percent to at least share the regular season title. That said, Michigan has played by far the easiest conference schedule and has almost a full game of positive luck (see below).

The Wolverines have yet to play Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa, Rutgers, or Indiana and it is hard to say what they will look like once they take the court again following their own COVID-related pause. While it is still likely that the Maize and Blue will wind up hanging a banner or two this year, sometimes looking strong in January in basketball is like looking strong in football in the month of September. There is still a lot of basketball yet to be played.

As for the other contenders, Illinois and Ohio State both recently picked up a win over Iowa and are the clear biggest challengers right now to win or share the title. The problem is that there is about a 35 percent chance that record of 17-3 will be needed to win the Big Ten. If that is true, Ohio State is already out and Illinois would need to be perfect.

Strength of Schedule Update

Figure 2 below gives the updated overall strengths of schedule for all 14 Big Ten schools, followed by the strengths of schedule for only the remaining conference games. In addition, between those two figures I have added a new figure that shows the strength of schedule for Big Ten games played so far. As a reminder, all of these calculations are based on the expected number of wins (or winning percentage) for an average Power Five team if they were to play the schedule of each Big Ten team.


Figure 2: Big Ten overall strengths of schedule,, as of the morning of 02/07/2021


Figure 3: Big Ten strengths of schedule considering only the games completed so far, as of the morning of 02/07/2021


Figure 4: Big Ten strengths of schedule considering only the remaining conference games, as of the morning of 02/07/2021

This data is not very encouraging for MSU fans. Basically, the Spartans’ schedule is the second most difficult overall (only Northwestern has a tougher schedule) and MSU’s schedule is also heavily back-loaded. MSU has the hardest remaining Big Ten schedule. An average Power Five team (as good as Rutgers or Indiana) would project to only win 42 percent of MSU’s remaining games, and MSU is currently playing well below that pace.

In other words, in order for MSU to hit the eight-win mark that is likely to be needed to just get back into the NCAA Tournament conservation, the Spartans need to either get some luck or they need to start playing more like a top-20 team.

As for the rest of the Big Ten race, as mentioned above, Michigan’s schedule it is the overall the easiest in the league, but like MSU, it it also back-loaded. This is encouraging for a team like Illinois. The Illini also have a relatively easy conference schedule, but their remaining schedule is notably easier that the Wolverines’ schedule.

Finally, I continue to have to keep my eye on Maryland. The Terrapins have the easiest remaining conference schedule and they are currently just ahead of MSU in the standings. Minnesota is in a similar position. As the Spartans start to think about potential seeding and positioning in the Big Ten Tournament, these are the teams that MSU is likely to be competing with for the important first round bye.

Speaking of that...

Big Ten Tournament Projection

If the season ended today, that would be weird, because only 78 total Big Ten games have been played (56 percent of the season) and the teams have not played the same number of games. That said, it is possible to make projections about the Big Ten tournament based on the simulated results. Table 4 below provides that update.

Table 2: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds, as of the morning of February 7th, 2021


The Spartans are still projecting as either the No. 12 or No. 13 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. The current math only gives MSU an 11 percent chance to avoid playing on Wednesday in the first round. That said, Penn State, Indiana, and Maryland are all teams near the Spartans in the standing, and MSU has four games total remaining with those three teams. MSU’s performance in those four games will greatly impact the final Big Ten Tournament seed.

Overall, Michigan and Illinois look to be virtual locks for the coveted Big Ten Tournament double bye (over 95 percent chance). Ohio State’s odds are also now over 70 percent to start play on Friday. As for the fourth and final spot, Iowa (58 percent) currently holds the edge over Purdue (46 percent) with Wisconsin (27 percent) and Rutgers (six percent) still in play.

As for the Big Ten Tournament itself, I have now started to simulate the results of the actual tournament, using the seeds projects by my full season simulation (and not just the single scenario where the favored teams win all remaining games). The results of the tournament simulation are shown below.

Table 3: Odds to win the Big Ten Tournament using the most likely seed for each team


As a general rule, the odds are going mirror the overall Kenpom efficiency margins, with a edge of a few percentage points given to the teams that earn single or double byes. The current simulation suggests a near toss up between the top four seeds.

Meanwhile, MSU’s odds to win the Big Ten Tournament without the benefit of bye and assuming the MSU does not improve remaining a vanishingly small 1-in-550.

MSU’s Current Position and Upcoming Schedule

Following MSU’s loss at Iowa and win over Nebraska, I have updated the Kenpom scatter plot to show the current position of MSU relative to past MSU teams, previous champions, and the current field of national contenders.


Figure 5: Kenpom scatter plot as of the morning of February 7th, 2021

Despite some signs of potential progress in MSU’s last two games, the efficiency metrics show that MSU is essentially just treading water, if not continuing to slowly sink...with time running out. The Spartans’ defensive numbers are respectable and in the range of current and past teams that have had successful seasons.

But, as our eyeballs can attest, it is MSU’s offense that is the primary concern. The Spartan offense approached respectability at times this year, but especially since the COVID-19 pause, the offense has been in free fall. The 2021 MSU team now most resembles MSU’s last team that did not play in the NCAA tournament, in 1997.

In a normal year, by early February, it would be unlikely that a team with MSU’s profile would be able to improve enough to matter. The green oval of uncertainty suggests that the most likely best-case scenario is for MSU to level up to the resemble the 2011 team that lost in the first round to UCLA. Sadly, I think that most MSU fans would take that right now.

Based on all of this information, Figure 6 below shows the updated MSU tournament streak dashboard.


Figure 6: MSU Tournament streak odds dashboard

These metrics still diverge quite a bit. The 44 percent odds suggested by the raw Kenpom efficiency margin is likely way too high, but the odds based on the Kenpom ranking, MSU’s Big Ten record and Big Ten Tournament seed are all fairly close. From this data, I would propose that the current odds for the streak to continue are around 15 percent only.

In order for these odds to improve, MSU simply needs to play better, starting essentially right now. The projected odds for MSU remaining ten games are shown below in Figure 7.


Figure 7: Projected odds for MSU's remaining games, based on Kenpom efficiency margin data

The bad news is that MSU is not projected to be favored in any of the games left on the schedule. The good news is that six of the games are still at home, and they are almost all projected to be “quad one” wins if the Spartans were to prevail.

With only three conferences wins so far, MSU almost certainly will need to go .500 from here on out to get back into the NCAA Tournament conversation. A glance at Figure 7 gives us a pretty good idea of how that might be able to happen.

As mentioned above, for Big Ten Tournament seeding purposes, wins over Penn State, Maryland, and Indiana (twice) would help significantly. Those also happen to be the most likely wins left on the schedule. All four of those games are quickly starting to look like “must wins.” As stated above, unless MSU starts to play a lot better, as soon as this Tuesday when Penn State comes to town, this is not very likely.

But, if we assume (hope?) that Tom Izzo is able to work some February magic in the next week or so and get the team to start playing similar to the level that they showed in the wins against Rutgers, then there perhaps is a chance to get all four of those wins. Based on where MSU is now, those odds project to be only about two percent.

But, with some Izzo magic and perhaps some luck and who knows what might happen? In the scenario where MSU wins those four games, MSU’s odds to secure at least an 8-12 record and/or a top-10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament would rise to roughly 75 percent. If MSU can find a way to win those four games, I have a feeling that the NCAA Tournament streak would continue.

MSU would only need to steal a win (or more) in home games against Iowa, Illinois, Ohio State, or Michigan or in the road games at Purdue or at Michigan. That certainly seems possible, especially if MSU can start playing like the team that we saw earlier in the year.

In any event, the game this week against Penn State is most likely the easiest game left on the schedule. The Spartans need to win this game. Period. If they cannot get that win, and instead fall to 3-8 on the season, the hole might officially be too steep to dig out of.

Sorry for the gloom and doom, but that it what the numbers are telling me right now. That said, a phrase that I like to use is “probability is not destiny.” As long as there are still games left on the schedule, and as long as Tom Izzo is on the bench, I will believe that MSU has a chance.

That is all for now. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, beat the Lions.

This was actually announced last week (Thursday) - the game that was supposed to be tomorrow in Ann Arbor has been post poned.


MSU won't be back in action until Sunday-next Monday against ASU.

The 2020-21 season of college basketball is a season like no other. The impact of COVID-19 has already caused a shortened preseason, multiple postponed games, and multi-week team shutdowns. Another obvious impact is the lack of fans in Big Ten arenas and in arenas across the nation.

There has been a lot of discussion about how much impact this lack of fans is having on the results of games. So far, Michigan State has only played three home games in Big Ten play, and the Spartans have lost two of those three games (versus Purdue and Wisconsin). It seems that the advantage of playing the Breslin Center may be decreased, but with a sample size of only three games, it is hard to say for sure. Is there a way to try to quantify this effect?

One piece of data to look at is the overall win percentage of all Big Ten home teams. As of Feb. 4. Big Ten teams are 44-28 overall, which is a win percentage of 61.1 percent. Historically, this turns out to the low side of normal in Big Ten play.

Figure 1 below compares the final home team win percentage in Big Ten Conference play from 2002 to the present. As the Figure shows, there is a fair amount of variation over the years. The overall average is 64.3 percent over a total of over 2,100 games, but the standard deviation is 4.3 percent. The home teams have won as many as 72 percent of conference games (in 2002 and 2003) and as few as 57 percent (in 2014).


Figure 1: Home team win percentage in Big Ten conference games back to 2002

As for the rest of the country, the story seems to be about the same. In conference play across all of Division 1, home teams are 745-565 (57 percent) as of the morning of Jan. 30, when I last pulled this data. In addition, there are a total of six conferences where the home teams actually have losing records. Those conferences are America East, Big Sky, Atlantic Sun, Atlantic-10, the Big 12, and the Patriot League.

The data from 2020 has the overall home win percentage at 61 percent for all conference games in Division 1. Furthermore, only one conference, America East, had a home record of .500 or worse over the full season. Based on this data, it does suggest that home teams are wining at a slightly lower rate, but only by a few percentage points. So far the home court advantage for the 2020-21 season seems to be, once again, just on the low side of normal.

However, there are two things that trouble me slightly about this simple analysis above. First, I am comparing the full season worth of data in 2019-20 to only a partial set of data in 2020-21. It is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Second, I am basically assuming that the if there was no home court advantage, that we would expect the home teams to win 50 percent of all games.

In the cases where it is possible to play a full round robin schedule, this is likely to be the case. But, most conferences have some form as an unbalanced schedule, and this imbalance may cause the home teams or road teams to have a slight advantage overall.

Fortunately, there is a was to check this effect fairly precisely using my favorite source of data: Kenpom efficiency margins. As I have discussed many times, efficiency margin data can be used to estimate point spreads and victory probabilities. But, baked into the calculation of these spreads and probabilities is an estimation of home court advantage for each team.

According to the Kenpom website, he calculates a home court advantage for each team “based on last 60 home and road conference games. Values are per game differences between home and road margin.” For Big Ten teams, these correction factors vary by team from a value of three to four points. The current home court advantage for the Breslin Center is 3.7 points.

I do not think that Kenpom himself is making any specific correction based on the lack of fans during COVID-19. It is possible that there is some measurable effect, but the fact that the calculation takes into account the last 60 conference games would make the impact of the 2020-21 conferences games is small. So far, I have not observed any change in the values on Kenpom.com for any Big Ten team.

Regardless, I calculate the point spreads, win probabilities, and expected number of wins based on the preseason home court advantage values. Therefore, it is simple to calculate the number of expected wins by the home Big Ten teams using the normal (i.e. non-COVID) home court correction factor. In addition, it is also possible to calculate the expected number of home wins if the home court correction factor was zero. The results of this calculation are shown below:

• Actual home team record: 44-28 (61.1 percent)
• Expected home team record, with normal home court correction: 41.6 - 30.4 (57.8 percent)
• Expected home team record, with no home court correction: 37.3 - 34.7 (51.8 percent)

These results tell us a few things. First, it is true that a lack of a home court advantage does not automatically imply an even 50-50 split between home teams and road teams. But it is pretty close. Based on the games completed so far, the home teams should have a very narrow advantage (1.8 percentage points or about one to two game) over road teams.

Second, if the preseason, non-COVID adjustment home court advantage factors are correct, the home teams would be winning between 57 and 58 percent of the time. In reality, the home teams are actually wining slightly more often than that, by about a two and a half games overall.

In other word, the current Big Ten home court advantage overall is actually slightly higher than expected relative to the past several season (i.e. the last 60 conference games). This strike me as a surprising result.

I don’t have the data off hand to run the same analysis for the rest of Division 1, so I cannot comment on whether this effect is also observed in the other conferences, and especially the high-major ones. As stated above, the current numbers overall still look like the “low side of normal.” But the data from the Big Ten is clear.

The impact of having no fans in the stands does not seem to be impacting the overall home court advantage for the conference, on average. That said, the experience of each individual team may vary. But, if this statement is generally true, it may offer some hope for the Spartans.

MSU will still play up to seven more games in the Breslin Center this year if the postponed games are all made up. If the Green and White can right ship enough to be able to defend Breslin, the odds for a strong finish to the season and the possibility of a postseason will start to look much, much more likely.

Here is my article on Hamp Fay adjusting as a mid-year guy

He comes off as pretty laid-back, but you can feel the competitive side of him in some of his comments. Especially with him talking about feeling the competition in the QB room. I read that as he is competing for the job already and understands that it has to start now.

To me, Russo is probably going to be the guy. But Fay is different than a lot of first-year QB's. He isn't overly confident and full of himself. He has a quiet confidence about him and belief in himself. Not a sense of entitlement. Not afraid to work his butt off. I like his demeanor.

He strikes me as a kid that teammates will like, both guys in his class and outside.

I think Tillman is going to be a good fit in that secondary room under Barnett. He is excited about the hands-on instruction aspect of the job. He speaks Sabanese as Barnett would say. He has that first-hand knowledge with his background as a corner. I think its going to be a good situation. I think he'll be all-in. He wants to coach corners, and I expect he'll do a good job.

Michigan State felt good about him yesterday, and as far as I heard, it remained that way.

Anyway, here's my story on the front:



One thing to see in this story: Look at the photo of Benny. He has his arm around his coach and has that warm smile. Same with the photo that he took with Davion Primm. Has an arm around his teammate, warm smile. That's who he is. I like this kid.

If he chooses Michigan, you can get angry. But I don't want us saying bad things about an 18-year-old kid making a college decision. Let other web communities do that. We're going to take the high road.

**

Anyway, he's a big, tough athlete, but he's also a happy teddy bear. He went and arranged for he and Davion to pose for that photo and excitedly wanted me to take the photo because he knew I was an Michigan State reporter. He was into it, happy to be a Spartan. It was genuine. I'm assuming it will stay that way today.

But anyway, the photos in that story are worth a thousand words as to what type of personality he is. And coach Greg Carter's words are pretty good too.

Here is how I interpreted Tucker's comments today.

Guys we know are back:

Allen, Beesley, Panasiuk, Arcuri, Dotson, Coghlin.

Guys that could be back, may be gone:

Reid, Campbell, Person, Nelson.

I don't expect Reid and Campbell back. Just my take on the situation. Campbell has had too many injuries. If Reed was coming back, Tucker would have said so. I can see Person coming back, possibly. Nelson doesn't make much sense. He was alway a fringe guy given his size and there is a lot of young receiver talent.

Here is my article on mid-year transfers.

It's noteworthy that Tucker indicated that Michigan State could add upwards of nine transfers via portal before '21 season.

Here is short story on Tucker's take on staff re-allignment.

Welcome To The War Room

By Jim Comparon and Staff
SpartanMag.com

East Lansing, Mich. - We are conducting a test. This is only a test. For the next several minutes you will be reading the debut edition of The War Room, a brand new feature at SpartanMag.com.

Many web sites within the Rivals.com family publish weekly “War Room” features which provide insight, analysis and occasionally insider illumination on rumors and happenings in and about their respective athletic programs. SpartanMag.com is now joining that enterprise with the inaugural walk into The War Room.

In this edition, we will talk about the late signing period, with the latest on Rayshaun Benny, Keon Coleman and Davon Townley, and a lot of information about in-state recruiting for 2022. Make sure you read all the way to the bottom. Some good stuff is buried down there.

We also check the phone lines to survey players on MSU’s recruiting list for 2022 to see which teams called them on Feb. 1, the first day college coaches were allowed to call high school juniors in this contact period.

But first, let's check back in on Recruiting 2021:

Wednesday is the first day of the late signing period. The first Wednesday used to be THE recruiting holiday, but the December early signing period has stolen at least 90 percent of the thunder.

For Michigan State, there is still a little bit of intrigue about the late signing period. Rayshaun Benny, MSU’s highest-ranked commitment, didn’t sign in December. He committed to Michigan State on Nov. 9 with the intention of waiting until February to sign.

It’s become rare for players to wait until February to sign. It’s even more rare for a player to commit prior to the December signing period and wait until February. And it’s flat out nerve-wracking when a Top 100 recruit like Benny does it.

I met him and observed him during and after Oak Park’s Regional Final victory over Livonia Churchill three weeks ago. He’s a smiling, humble, soft-spoken teen-ager. His teammates and coaches love him.

People around him told me last month that he is and was planning to sign with Michigan State. No funny business. No posturing. No seeking of the spotlight. He just wanted to do it in February from the jump. He briefly considered signing in December anyway, but opted to go with his original plan. Which leads us to Wednesday.

Full disclosure: When I began writing this piece on Monday afternoon, there were still simmering questions as to whether Michigan or Texas might be able to flip Benny from his Michigan State commitment.

But by the time I finished this article, on Monday evening, almost all of the flip smoke had been extinguished, including a report from Wolverine.com recruiting writer EJ Holland that he was no longer forecasting any chance of a flip. Earlier this winter, Holland had been reporting that there was a chance, and to keep an eye on this recruitment.

Good sources have told me that Wolverine commitments had been working to flip Benny to U-M. Nothing wrong with that. That’s part of the game these days. However, my sources indicated that Benny hasn’t budged. And Holland's report agrees with that.

I asked Rayshaun after the Regional Final game (with my face covered, at a safe distance, while outside on the field) if he still planned to sign with Michigan State. He said yes without hesitation.

Michigan State felt good and unchanged about its chances with him yesterday.

Benny’s Twitter page is still decked out in green and white, with a photo of him in a Spartan uniform. In late January, he was still recruiting for the Spartans, urging 2022 standout Myles Rowser to pick Michigan State.

(Rowser is a beastly cruiser of a defensive player, by the way. He is ranked No. 2 in the state of Michigan for 2022. He is 6-feet, 185 but seems to play much bigger than that. He’s a safety, but he often plays at the linebacker level in high school. He’s a natural with a nasty football disposition. Sometimes I disagree with rankings and feel certain players are overrated. I don’t feel that way about Rowser.)

So, after Wednesday, I fully expect Benny to have signed with Michigan State and begin helping the Spartans in their pursuit of Rowser, and other members of the 2022 class.

The very, very latest indication that Michigan State and Benny are in lock-step is a press release today from Michigan State University that head coach Mel Tucker will have a signing day Zoom press conference with media on Wednesday. They wouldn’t call that press conference if they didn’t anticipate someone signing. We're expecting that someone to be Benny.


UPDATE: New clouds of smoke rolling in. Benny recruitment might not be over. Discussion here.

******

Benny's junior film was outstanding, maybe the best junior film from an in-state, two-way lineman commitment to Michigan State that I’ve seen in the internet era.

His senior film is good, but a summer car accident resulted in ligament damage, surgery and a slow rally to 100 percent health. Hence, his senior film was merely good and not what it would have been if he hadn’t been involved in the accident. His coach, Greg Carter, says there will be ill effects from the injury in college.

******

As for Keon Coleman, the 6-foot-4, 188-pound wide receiver from Opelousas, La., I know for a fact that within the actual Michigan State recruiting war room that they feel Michigan State is still in it and has a chance to sign him. It’s hard for the Spartan coaches to read the smoke signals on this one. Coleman’s recruitment has been quiet and enigmatic.

A source in Louisiana told me he wouldn’t be shocked if Coleman picks an Historically Black College, with Florida A&M being a real possibility.

Coleman committed to Kansas over Oklahoma on July 4 but de-committed on Oct. 6.

Kansas is listed as a favorite in the Rivals.com Fancast, but I spoke with a decades-long veteran of Kansas recruiting coverage and he says he doesn’t see any way Coleman signs with the Jayhawks. The Kansas source didn’t really elaborate, other than to add that Kansas signed another four-star wide receiver. I trust this source immensely. He knows the Kansas war room well, and says it’s not going to happen for the Jayhawks. So that’s the best info I could find from Lawrence, Kan. We’ll see if that part of it turns out to be accurate.

Coleman is an excellent shooting guard in basketball and wants to sign with a college that will give him a chance to play both sports, and a school that seriously recruited him for both sports.

Tom Izzo told Mel Tucker he is available to do anything to help Michigan State football. Tucker took him up on it. Izzo watched Coleman’s film, gave it a nod, and helped Tucker with the recruiting pitch. Izzo had a Zoom meeting with Coleman at one point.

Michigan State feels its conversations with Coleman have been positive. But Coleman has been very difficult to read. It’s been an odd recruitment.

Coleman is an outstanding talent. He is listed as a three-star by Rivals.com, but if he played in Michigan, he would easily stand out as a four-star. Good talent sometimes gets overshadowed in a talent-rich state like Louisiana. I’ll just say that Rivals.com’s regional people in Louisiana are tough graders. I give them credit for that. Rivals.com currently has only 11 players from Louisiana listed as four-star recruits. I haven’t seen all of them play, but I’ve watched Coleman’s film and RB Logan Diggs’ film (RB headed to Notre Dame) and they are excellent, excellent three-star talents.

******

If Michigan State happens to sign Coleman, the work won’t be done. He is going to be a maintenance task. One source in Louisiana predicts that regardless of where he signs, he will be in the portal within a year. I hate to be a bringer of sour news, but this is The War Room, and I’m going to pass along (most of) what I know.

As of last week, and earlier this week for that matter, Coleman had given little indication as to which school is his leader. All this time, there may not have ever been a leader. And it wouldn’t shock me if he waits until after Wednesday to sign. He’s a different cat.

He’s a terrific talent, and signing him would help Michigan State in the recruiting rankings, for what it's worth. But I’m not sure how much rubber is going to meet the road for whichever school signs him this month. But if you’re looking to add a big-time talent to your WR room, and you're willing to work on ironing out the other wrinkles after he arrives, then he’s your guy.

******

As for Davon Townley, the four-star defensive end from Minneapolis, Michigan State made his top seven or eight. But there is no indication the Spartans will steal this one.

Rivals.com Midwest analyst Josh Helmholdt tells me that it’s down to Penn State and Washington for Townley. Helmholdt has been on the front lines of this recruitment from the start and has a very good read on the proceedings. He

“It’s really tight right now, could go either way,” Helmholdt said of the Huskies-Nittany Lions battle.

******

As for the class of 2022, Monday was a noteworthy date on the calendar in that it marked the first day that college coaches could make phone calls to junior recruits for this contact period.

I reached out to some Michigan State recruiting targets and here are the responses that I’ve received so far: (You might not recognize most or any of these names. But get familiar with them. Some of them are going to be discussed in the weeks, months and years ahead).


SHANNON BLAIR (6-1, 165, CB), a sleeper from Knoxville, Tenn., who has not yet been rated by Rivals.com, received a surprise scholarship offer from Michigan State last week.

Blair received two phone calls on Monday. One from Michigan State cornerbacks coach Travares Tillman, and one from Liberty University, which offered him a scholarship during the call. He has offers from those two schools, plus Virginia.

JAMES JOINTER (5-11, 205, RB), a three-star from Little Rock, Ark., received calls on Monday from Michigan State, Missouri, Purdue, Utah, Arizona State, Virginia, Illinois and Vanderbilt.


SULLIVAN WEIDMAN (6-5, 300, OL), a three-star from Brookline, Mass., received calls from Chris Kapilovic of Michigan State, Dave Borbely of Pitt, and Dennis Dottin-Carter of UConn.


MUMA BIN-WAHAD (5-11, 180, CB), a three-star from Loganville (Ga.) Grayson High School received calls from Michigan State, Mississippi State and South Carolina.


DAMARI ALSTON (5-10, 206, RB), a four-star from College Park (Ga.), received calls from Ohio State, Michigan State, Auburn, Alabama, North Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt, Nebraska Penn State “and others.”


JUSTIN WILLIAMS (6-0, 200, RB), a four-star from Dallas (Ga.) East Paulding High, received calls from Norval McKenzie of Vanderbilt, De’Rail Sims of Louisville and Cam Aiken of South Florida. Williams wasn’t available for all phone calls on Monday and received a phone call from Michigan State on Tuesday morning.


RODNEY HILL (6-0, 180, RB), a three-star from Statesboro (Ga.) Bulloch Academy, received calls from Virginia and Minnesota.


QUENCY WIGGINS (6-7, 270, DE), a three-star from Baton Rouge, La., says he didn’t hear from any coaches on Monday. He is ranked the No. 24 player in Louisiana and has offers from Arkansas, Auburn, Florida State, Michigan, Tennesse and Baylor among others.

He isn’t listed with an Michigan State offer, but he has heard from the Spartans in recent days.

“Yeah, they are talking with me,” he said, “it (the scholarship offer) isn’t official yet.”


DAMARI ALSTON (5-10, 206, RB), a four-star from College Park (Ga.), received calls from Ohio State, Michigan State, Auburn, Alabama, North Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt, Nebraska Penn State “and others.”


BRADEN MILLER (6-7, 290, OT), a three-star from Centennial, Col., heard from Michigan State, Michigan, Utah and Stanford.


ANDREW CHAMBLEE (6-6, 292, OT), a three-star from Maumelle, Ark., received calls from Miami, Ohio State, Michigan State and Oklahoma State.


NETINHO OLIVIERI (6-4, 290, OG), a sleeper from Millis (Mass.) Dexter Southfield, says he heard from Michigan State “and some other schools.”

OSCAR DELP (6-5, 220, TE), a four-star from Cumming (Ga.) West Forsyth says he took calls from “10 to 15 schools. Some of those included Georgia, Florida State, LSU, Clemson, South Carolina, Auburn, North Carolina, USC, Michigan, Michigan State and Florida.”

KAMARII LANDERS (6-4, 295, OG), a three-star from Dearborn (Mich.) Fordson says: “I heard from a lot of schools, to be honest. Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska and every school I got an offer from, except one.”

Landers also has offers from Indiana, Kentucky, Oregon and West Virginia.

******

Kamarii Landers is an interesting recruiting prospect. He shows excellent power in his junior film and nice, quick feet for a guy his size. He’s listed at 295 in the Rivals.com database, but that figure is from last year. Landers put on some unneeded weight during the summer. As one scout told me, COVID lockdown wasn’t a good thing for him.

But he’s working to get back in shape. The excess weight hasn’t deterred many of his suitors. He had a busy Monday.

He is a Plan A on MSU’s list, and Michigan State has done a great job connecting with him. Michigan State is the team to beat for Landers right now.

******

From the desk of Paul Konyndyk, an interesting tale about an Michigan State commitment facing off against an Michigan State target:

Michigan State commitment Tyrell Henry had a respectable performance in his Roseville High team's 28-12 loss to Ty’Shawn Trent-led Eastpointe when the two friends squared off against one another in October.
Henry totaled 105 all-purpose yards against eventual Macomb Area Conference Gold champion Eastpointe, with 61 receiving yards, 29 rushing yards, and a 15-yard punt return.

Henry also accounted for one of Roseville’s two touchdowns in the game.

The game within that game was the sometimes match-up between Trent and Henry, both of whom are two-way players.

“It was fun going up against my guy,” Trent said. “He likes to talk a little bit, and he’s chippy too. He was trying to hit me when the play was over when the refs couldn’t see it. If we are playing like that, we are playing like that. It was all love after the game. That’s my guy.”

According to Trent, his friend Henry couldn't shake him when he was playing safety for Eastpointe.

“He had a good game against us, and give him credit for that,” Trent said, “but when I was guarding him, I kind of put the locks on him.”

Trent also contends that Henry couldn’t cover him when the Michigan State commitment was playing defensive back.

“When he guarded me, I went up high on him twice,” Trent said. “I caught the ball once for a touchdown, and another was just a regular catch.”

******

Back to me, Comparoni:

That’s not quite how Henry remembers it. I asked Henry if Trent matched up with him during that game. Henry said: “No he (Trent) didn’t, but he was very good, strong good hands, and I enjoyed the visit,” Henry said. “Very nice place good atmosphere all around.”

So that one might need to be revisited next season, or perhaps on the Michigan State practice field some day.

******

We are starting to see a positive trend for Michigan State recruiting in the state of Michigan. Many observers expected Mel Tucker and his staff to have a strong year during the 2022 recruiting cycle, their first full year of recruiting while at Michigan State. Although Tucker and his staff haven’t been able to meet many players face to face, the Spartan staff - unlike last year - is basically operating from the same starting spot as most other programs.

Many other programs did get a chance to get some face-to-face time with 2022 recruits when they were sophomores, but the contact deficit isn’t as extreme as the one Michigan State faced last year with Tucker’s staff getting in place in February and having only one unofficial visit weekend prior to the onset of the lockdown.

Now, with Tucker and his staff operating equally with others, the Spartans are hitting the ground hard and won’t be outworked. I’ve followed Michigan State recruiting for more than three decades, and the organizational skills and commitment to the day-to-day work of recruiting displayed by the current staff is probably the best I’ve seen at Michigan State.

The initial two years of Nick Saban and the initial two years of Mark Dantonio were very good, as Michigan State ramped up its energy and outreach at the outset of those administrations. However, the current staff is operating with just a little more octane, with more support staff. And there’s no question that the new staff is making busier early in-roads with recruits outside of the five-hour radius than any Michigan State staff of the 85-scholarship era.

(I covered the George Perles era, beginning in 1987, but wasn't yet a professional reporter when he was hired at Michigan State. I wasn't here to cover the "we knocked their socks off" class of Andre Rison. So put an asterisk on that one for me. I can't compare the current Tucker efforts to the early Perles days, but I suspect they are similar.)

As for recruiting closer to home, trends are starting to show that Michigan State is operating more favorably in-state than has been the case in at least five years.

We are seeing indications that Michigan State is emerging as the team to beat for four-star WR Tay-Shawn Trent of Eastpointe (ranked No. 5 in the state), three-star DT Deon Walker of Detroit Cass Tech (No. 18 in the state) and three-star OL Kamarii Landers (ranked No. 20 in the state).

Michigan State is running a very good race for four-star athlete Jaden Mangham (No. 8 in the state). The college head coach that shows Mangham the most love is going to gain the edge. Michigan State is right there, with the work Courtney Hawkins has put in. But watch out for schools like West Virginia, Nebraska and Washington State. If Jaden likes a place and the coach is forthcoming, relatable and makes a connection, that school will be in the mix.

Mangham will be dropping his list of top schools on Monday. Michigan State will be on it.

Michigan State is also off to a very good start with four-star athlete Dillon Tatum of West Bloomfield (No. 6 in the state) and big athlete Michael Williams of West Bloomfield (No. 9 in the state).

Michigan State has made up serious ground with Belleville safety Myles Rowser (No. 2 in the state). Rowser was formerly a Michigan commitment. Rowser told SpartanMag.com’s Kenny Jordan that Michigan is still the team to beat but he felt like he made that commitment prematurely and hadn’t given enough schools a chance, which is what he’s doing right now.

Rowser’s step brother, Andre Seldon, is a heading into his sophomore year as a cornerback at Michigan. The things Rowser hears back from Seldon about the true experience at Michigan and playing for Jim Harbaugh will obviously have a big impact on Rowser’s decision.

Rowser told Kenny Jordan that while Michigan is still the team to beat, Tucker coming in and offering a scholarship despite his step brother being at Michigan, and making Rowser a priority despite many Belleville players recently leaving Michigan State, shows how serious Tucker is about winning. Those are Rowser's words. Tucker has resonated with Rowser. Tucker is going to get an audience with him at some point.

But Notre Dame is up there in consideration too, for Rowser.

Speaking of Notre Dame, a source in Detroit tells me that super big-time 2023 QB Dante Moore of Detroit King is eagerly waiting to hear from the Irish. You may remember Moore. He’s the guy whom Michigan offered as a freshman. It was big, strange news back then, but offers to freshmen is becoming more commonplace than it used to be.

Moore flashed extraordinary talent this season at Detroit King.

Has Michigan State succeeded in getting a foot in the door with Moore? My source says yes. There has been communication.

Tucker has a presence. He and his staff are energized, engaging and intriguing. And they beat Michigan in year one. These athletes are receptive to MSU’s overtures and looking forward to getting face-to-face time with Tucker.

Big-time 2023 offensive lineman Amir Herring of West Bloomfield is in line to become a national Top 100 recruit. Many see him as an early lean to Michigan. They said the same thing about Rayshaun Benny.

But this is what Herring told me: “I plan on visiting (Michigan State) as soon as the dead period ends. Looking forward to meeting Coach Tucker.”

Getting back to the 2022 class, by my count, Michigan State has extended offers to 13 of the uncommitted rising seniors in the state of Michigan. Michigan State is in real good shape for 10 of them, outside of CB Will Johnson of Grosse Pointe South (his father played at Michigan) and LB Joshua Burnham of Traverse City. Michigan State is recruiting Burnham, but he seems to be a strong Michigan lean.

It's been hard to get a read on Antonio Gates Jr.

MSU offered Zeeland (Mich.) East defensive end Tag Bonnema in April. Iowa offered the previous June.

Bonnema says he has received texts this week from Michigan, Notre Dame, Kentucky, Iowa, Michigan State, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Cincinnati.

Bonnema told Kenny Jordan that he is closing in on a decision, perhaps this spring. We’ll keep our ear to the ground on that one as well.

Many observers expected this to be a splash year for Tucker with in-state recruiting, and it seems to be setting up that way.

**

That’s all we have for this week. We had a lot of things saved up. The War Room might not always be this voluminous. But we’ll work to bring you the backchannel info as we get it.

The good news is that Michigan State basketball is finally back. The bad news is that that is the only good news. Since the last odds update, the Spartans have played and lost two road games to Rutgers and Ohio State, both in blowout fashion. The game at Rutgers was an absolute dumpster fire. The loss at Ohio State was merely bad. Does that, perhaps, count as progress? Maybe?

Either way, whether Michigan State has lost in the final seconds or lost by 30, the end result is that MSU is now 2-6 in conference play and the NCAA Tournament streak is officially in serious jeopardy. The Spartans are now four games under .500. No Tom Izzo team has ever been more than three games under .500.

MSU was 5-8 in late February of 1997, but rallied to win four of the final five games to get to 9-9 and at least earned an NIT bid. In the 2002 season, MSU started Big Ten play 0-3, but went 10-3 from there on and made the tournament as a No. 10 seed. Sunday’s loss puts Coach Izzo in uncharted territory.

I still believe that there is a good team in there somewhere. The Spartans showed me enough against Notre Dame, Duke, Rutgers (the first time), and the first half against Purdue to believe that this still can be a tournament team. But, a team can only take so many losses before a point of no return is reached. MSU is not yet to that point, but time is definitely running out, and as we will see, the schedule from here on out is not easy.

For now, all that I can do is report the numbers as they are. It’s not pretty right now, and it is not likely to get better on Tuesday night when Michigan State travels to Iowa. For better or for worse, grit your teeth and read on, if you dare.

Current Standings and Odds Update

As usual, here are the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of the final day of January, 2021.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of 2/1/2021


Based on both winning percentage and total wins, Michigan State is now second to last in conference play, only ahead of Nebraska. The Spartans are also still ahead of Northwestern in Kenpom, but even that gap is narrowing and of course MSU loses a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Wildcats. As for luck, MSU doesn’t have any of that either, as Figure 1 below shows.


Figure 1: Comparison of Big Ten "luck" (actual wins minus expected wins)

The updated Big Ten win matrix is shown below, followed by the Big Ten regular season championship matrix.

Table 2: Big Ten win distribution matrix as of 2/1/2021


Table 3: Odds for each Big Ten team to win or share the regular season title with a certain number of total wins


For the Big Ten race as a whole, Michigan is clearly in the driver’s seat with over a 75 percent chance to at least share the title and a two-game lead in the standings and in expected wins. Illinois and Iowa both also have a very reasonable shot at the title with odds both around 18 percent. After that, Purdue, Ohio State, and Wisconsin are long shots, but still in the race. Right now, there is almost a 70 percent chance that at least 16 wins will be needed to earn a share of the conference title.

It is notable that of the contenders, both Purdue and Michigan lead the conference in luck, while Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio State are all underwater in that category. If the results regress more to the mean (zero luck) in the second half of the season, the Big Ten race might become quite a bit more competitive.

As for the Spartans, the latest two losses have put a major dent in MSU’s numbers. The total number of expected wins is now under six wins and the projected odds to get to .500 are now at only 1.4 percent. The odds just to get to 8-12 have fallen to 15 percent.

Furthermore, the odds for MSU to win a Big Ten title are now officially at zero. I cannot say that it is mathematically impossible for MSU to win the Big Ten, but I can say that in 500,000 simulations of the remaining schedule, including cases where MSU is actually a lot better than the current efficiency data suggests, the Spartans failed to finish in first place even a single time.

Strength of Schedule Update

Figure 2 below gives the updated overall strengths of schedule for all 14 Big Ten schools, followed by the strengths of schedule for only the remaining conference games.


Figure 2: Big Ten strengths of schedule as of 02/02/2021


Figure 3: Big Ten strengths of remaining schedule as of 02/02/2021

Since the last update, the Wolverines have now taken over the top spot in easiest overall Big Ten schedule, with Illinois and Purdue right behind. Ironically, MSU’s nosedive and the fact that Michigan plays MSU twice is a big part of that move.

It is also notable that while Michigan’s overall schedule is light, the Wolverines have one of the harder remaining schedules in the conference. Michigan’s schedule to date is actually the easiest in the Big Ten and they have almost a full win worth of luck. It will be interesting to see if the Maize and Blue can finish strong, especially coming off from a two-week pause.

As for MSU, the Spartans now grade out with the second hardest overall schedule as well as the second hardest remaining schedule. The only silver lining is that there are plenty of opportunities to pick up high quality wins from here on out.

Big Ten Tournament Projection

If the season ended today, that would be weird, because only 68 total Big Ten games have been played (48.6 percent of the season) and the teams have not played the same number of games. That said, it is possible to make projections about the Big Ten tournament based on the simulated results, assuming all postponed games are made up. Table 4 below provides that update.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of 02/01/2021


The Spartans have now fallen to second to last place in the Big Ten Tournament seed projection. As I have stated in the past, clawing back up to at least the No. 10 seed would be an important milestone to track as the season progresses. Right now, those odds are just slightly above 10 percent.

As the odds for the Spartans to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team drop, it is time to start thinking seriously about the possibility that the only way for MSU to go dancing will be to win the Big Ten Tournament.

To this end, I will now start to simulate the results of the Big Ten Tournament. For seeding, I will use the values shown above in the “best odds” column of Table 4, which are averages from the regular season simulation. The results of 200,000 Big Ten Tournament simulations are shown below in Table 5.

Table 5: Big Ten Tournament Odds as of 02/01/2021 using the "best odds" seed for each team


The good news is that MSU odds to win four games in four days and claim the Big Ten Tournament title are third to last and not second to last. The bad news is that those odds are less than one percent and closer to 1-in-460. In other words, I would not recommend pinning our hopes on the Big Ten Tournament saving the NCAA Tournament streak.

MSU’s Current Position and Upcoming Schedule

Following MSU’s losses at Rutgers and at Ohio State, I have updated the Kenpom scatter plot to show the current position of MSU relative to past MSU teams, previous champions, and the current field of national contenders.


Figure 4: Kempon efficiency scatter plot as of 02/01/2021

As expected, the Spartans’ offensive efficiency has taken a nosedive over the past two games and the 2021 Spartans now most resemble Coach Izzo’s last team that did not make the tournament (1997). The shrinking green circle that represents a typical level of uncertainty in efficiency this far from Selection Sunday in now fully outside of the blue “championship zone,” where the metrics of the past NCAA Champions reside.

The only silver lining in this case is that MSU’s defense continues to be at a respectable level. If MSU can catch fire shooting or find other ways to shore up the offense, then there might be a chance to salvage the season.

Based on all of the data presented so far, I would like to introduce a new feature this week which is my combined estimation of MSU’s odds to make the NCAA tournament. This dashboard of sorts compares the odds that MSU will meet certain goals (get within two games of .500, avoid the first day of the Big Ten Tournament, and/or win the Big Ten Tournament) or performance metrics (based on Kenpom). Taken together, these different factors should provide a reasonable estimation of the odds for MSU’s tournament streak to continue. Figure 5 below shows these odds.


Figure 5: MSU Tournament bubble dashboard

A few of these metrics have been covered above, including MSU odds to get to eight conference wins, or earn a top-10 seed or win the Big Ten Tournament. These current odds for MSU to make the NCAA Tournament are in the range of 10 to 15 percent.

However, as I outlined in a previous post, the odds to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team can also be extracted from historical Kenpom data. In this case, MSU’s odds are better and in the range of 20 to 45 percent. While it is tricky to put an exact figure on MSU’s current tournament odds, a simple average of these metrics suggest odds of roughly 25 percent.

Finally, Figure 6 below summarizes the projected odds for MSU in all of the remaining conference games.


Figure 6: Projected odds for MSU's remaining schedule

Sadly, yet another game has moved into the projected underdog category, as the odds for MSU to even beat Penn State in the Breslin Center have dropped to below 50 percent. Only the home game versus Nebraska is projected to be a likely win at this point.

Tuesday night’s game at Iowa is unlikely to go well. It will be MSU’s third road game in a span of six days and even in late December when MSU was ranked in the top-five, this game looked like a probable loss.

From this view point, the trip to Iowa City has nothing but positive upside. Sure, MSU will very likely lose and most likely get blown out, but there is also a greater than 10 percent chance that the Spartans will actual find a way to win that game. If this were to somehow happen, the rest of the season would suddenly look much, much brighter.

That said, MSU is very likely headed for 2-7. After that, however, there is a chance that things will get better. First of all, Michigan State only has four road games left on the schedule compared to seven home games, if all games are eventually made up. While MSU is only 1-2 at home in conference play, the Spartans played well for long stretches in all three games. It is reasonable to project the Spartans will look quite a bit better at home than they have in the past few road games.

Second, after the Iowa game, the two following games against Nebraska and Penn State are both at home, winnable, and spaced out a bit. These are obviously both “must win” games and the time at home and in the practice gym should give Coach Izzo the valuable time needed to try to salvage things. It still may not work in 2021, but early February is usually when Coach Izzo starts to work his final magic. If it is going to happen at all this year, it needs to happen in the next two weeks.

Once the calendar hits Feb. 13, MSU will hopefully be no worse than 4-7 in conference play with five home games left and four road games. None of the games will be gimmes, but very few of them look like automatic losses either. If MSU can steal four wins out of those nine games, a final record of 8-12 is possible.

Right now the expected number of wins in that final stretch is 2.45. If MSU can improve their play and maybe, just maybe, get a little bit of luck for a change then I think four wins is doable. Where will those wins come? Based on Figure 6, beating Indiana at Breslin (assuming that it gets rescheduled) and Maryland on the road are the two most likely.

After that, the home game against Ohio State and the road games at Purdue and at Indiana all have similar odds. Can MSU steal a win in that group? Then, MSU has home games versus Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan. Those games all look tough, but can the Spartans steal a win in that group of games as well, especially with another month for Izzo to find a way to put the team back together? I certainly am not ruling that out.

So, while this is certainly a bit of an optimistic take on the Spartans’ stretch run, I don’t believe that it is a completely unreasonable one. We have seen all of these players perform at a much higher level than how they are performing right now. We have also seen Coach Izzo get a much less talented and experienced group of guys into the Big Dance and even into the win column. He has done it before, and he might just do it again.

Keep you chins up, Spartan fans, and keep the faith. Nobody said that this was going to be easy. This season still might very well end in tremendous disappointment. But, it also might turn on a dime in a positive direction. Only time will tell. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, beat the Hawkeyes.

I think this will be very busy next few weeks, so let's keep it here.

The transfer board as of 5:15 p.m. on Friday:

Transfers In:

QB Anthony Russo (1 year of eligibility remaining)
RB Harold Joiner (3 years)

Transfers Out:

QB Rocky Lombardi
LB Jeslord Boateng
CB Davion Williams
OL Devontae Dobbs

RB Anthony Williams Jr.
LB Luke Fulton
LB Marcel Lewis
CB Julian Barnett
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We could use that too

So few things to watch on the team at least gives me something. Really bummed zadina is out

FSD Plus, 4 pm.

I guess the "good" news is MSU has won 3 of their last 4 after losing the opening weekend game.

Lost 1-0 to PSU, won 5-1 the next night.
Lost 9-0 to UM, won 3-2 the next day.
Lost 3-2 (OT) to PSU, lost 1-0 the next day
Lost 5-1 to OSU, won 2-0 the next day.

Going back further:

Lost to ND in a shoot-out (so tie), won the next night 4-3 (OT)

Guess what - 2 games on TV!!!

Tonight - FS Detroit - 8 pm
Tomorrow - FS Detroit Plus - 4 pm

I'm sure it'll be the Wisconsin feed - but still.

Neil's Notebook: https://msuspartans.com/news/2021/1...-busy-month-with-trip-to-no-13-wisconsin.aspx

MSU sits 7 points behind the 3rd place Badgers at this point.

A split would be nice/critical. Wisconsin has played 2 fewer games than MSU.

6th place Ohio State hosts Minnesota this weekend.

PSU beat Notre Dame last night 2-1, game 2 is tonight.

Michigan is off due to their shutdown, but they were scheduled to be off this weekend anyways.

Who you got.....?