As February starts to draw to a close, the race for the Big Ten title is starting to come into full focus. MSU had a fairly easy test this week in Lincoln, and fortunately they passed. While there certainly were some encouraging signs (rebounding! Gabe Brown! Henry! Arhens!) there were also still some concerns (turn-overs? Bingham? and... Cassius still doesn't quite seem to be himself.) At the end of the day, it was a pretty big win for MSU against a very bad team. All I can say is that big wins are better than close wins, and close wins are better than loses. I will take it.

As for the Big Ten race, here is the updated win matrix for all 14 teams, once again derived from Kenpom efficiency data.









As expected, Maryland appears to be pulling away in the final lap. Following Penn State's surprising loss at home to Illinois this week, the Terps now have almost a 2-game lead in expected wins over the Nittany Lions. After that, the battle for 3rd place is really heating up. Illinois, MSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all within 0.3 of a win of each other.

Behind this cluster of teams is another small pack made up of Michigan, Rutgers, and Ohio State. Those three teams are all expected to win between 10-11 games. Then, there is the pack of Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota who project to win 9-10 games. Essentially, we have 3 teams that are battling to avoid playing on Wednesday. Nebraska and Northwestern? Yup, still bad.

As for the translation of this data in the odds to win or share the Big Ten title, here are those updated odds:





It was a great week for Maryland and a bad one for Penn State. Right now, the Terps' odds are a shade over 90%, with Penn State now down to below 20%. MSU's odds are actually still 3rd best at 7%, with Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin still holding out hope.

As for the enhanced Big Ten standings, including the road win / home loss plus-minus rating and "luck," that is shown here:



It is not hard to see why Maryland is leading by two games. They have won 4 road games and not lost any at home. That said, they have also pulled out a couple of close games, and thus their luck score is over 2 games. Is Maryland ripe for a stinker or two? Is it possible that they drop 3 of their final 5 games?

While that may sound ridiculous, Maryland does close @ Ohio State, @ Minnesota (on 2 days rest), vs. MSU, @ Rutgers (on 2 days rest), and vs. Michigan. Kenpom's projections suggest that the Terps will be an underdog in Columbus and the other two road games are coin flips. In addition, the home games against the Michigan schools are both slightly over 60% propositions. Therefore, the expected win total for Maryland is only 2.76 for those final 5 games. If their "luck" were to run out, they could easily find themselves at 14-6. Actually, the win matrix suggests that there is a 40% chance that Maryland does not get to 15-5.

From an MSU perspective, this means that there is room for hope. When MSU lost to Maryland last weekend, all seemed to be lost (and it still likely is) but the fact that Penn State lost a game this week does make MSU's possible path to Big Ten title a bit less narrow. MSU still gets another crack at Penn State, so MSU controls their own destiny with all teams except Maryland. IF MSU can run the table (and give Maryland another loss) we "only" have to hope for Maryland to drop 2 of their other 4 games, which as stated above, it not that far-fetched. Sunday afternoon's contest between Maryland and Ohio Sate is a big one. If the Buckeye's can win, we can start to dream again...

As much as I am optimist, the math still tells me that there is less than a 10% chance for MSU to hang a regular season banner. So, the more immediate goal is simply to continue to get better and to try to secure a double bye (top 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament). As I stated last time, 12-8 is likely going to be good enough to secure the double bye, but the number of possible outcomes is still very high. One thing that my simulation does tell me is that MSU is very likely (84% odds) to end the regular season tied with at least one other Big Ten team. So, tiebreakers are going to factor in. At this point, I can only ball-park estimate a 50-50 chance that MSU gets the double bye is they finish 12-8.

The fact that MSU has games remaining against Iowa, Maryland, and Penn State will impact these tie-breakers. MSU swept Illinois and Rutgers, but split with Wisconsin and Michigan. Next up for MSU is their one and only contest this year against Iowa, and it is a big one for many reasons. A win gives MSU 11 conference wins and valuable leg up on the Hawkeyes for tiebreaker purposes. A loss would make it very difficult to secure a double bye.

So, while the dream of a Big Ten title still lives (on life support) it is still necessary to take care of business. That resumes on Tuesday. Until then, Go Green.

A source with close knowledge of the situation tells SpartanMag.com that Ted Gilmore has accepted an assistant coaching position at Michigan State.

Ross Els: HOT

* Inside LBs/special teams coach at Colorado.
* Sources told SpartanMag.com on Feb. 21 that Els is a strong candidate to head to Michigan State to join Tucker's staff.
* Els coached inside linebackers at Colorado for three seasons. Tucker retained Els from previous coach Mike MacIntyre's staff.
* When Els joined Tucker's staff, Els added special teams coordinator to his duties.
* Els, who will be 54 next season, will be a 30-year veteran of collegiate coaching next season. He has coached in 212 Division 1-A (FBS) games and seven bowl games.
* A native of Lincoln, Neb., he was defensive coordinator at Purdue under Darrell Hazell in 2016.
* Els was a linebackers coach at Nebraska under Bo Pelini from 2011-14. He was special teams coordinator and recruiting coordinator for his last three years at Nebraska.
* He was linebackers coach at Ohio University under Frank Solich from 2005 to 2010, spending four years as special teams coordinator.
* Els coached four years at New Mexico State, serving as defensive coordinatoar for two years.
* Els was head coach at Hastings College in Hastings, Neb., from 1997-2000. He also spent one year as QBs coach and one year as defensive coordinator at Hastings.
* He was also a defensive backs coach at Northern Iowa (1994) and Nebraska-Omaha (1990-93).

Jay Johnson will be the new OC/QB coach for Michigan State. The same role as at Colorado last year

Full disclosure: I did not actually watch the game on Saturday night. I had family obligations and was recording the game for potential viewing at a later time in the evening. I did manage to catch the score a little before half time and that was enough for me to know that this was one of those games where it would be best just to check the score once the game was finished to see if it was going to be worth watching or not.

Once I got home, I checked the final score. Then I checked the box score and final play-by-play details. At that point I was truly grateful that I did not watch the game, and especially the final four minutes, as my living room does contain few heavy objects, and I don't particularly feel like buying a new television.

As I said on Friday, this was a game that MSU needed to win. They didn't. So now, it is time to re-evaluate goals and expectations. From a numerical point of view, here is where MSU stands following yet another very costly loss:









From an expected win point of view, Maryland has almost of full game lead over Penn State. Penn State now has almost a 2-game lead over the 3rd place team, which is still, believe it or not, your MSU Spartans. But, several other teams are now closing in. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois are all a half game back or less from MSU.

Rutgers and Ohio State are next up, followed by Michigan, who for the first time since mid-January is above 10 wins in expected value again. Meanwhile, Purdue and Indiana have slipped below 10 wins and Indiana is now under 8.5. Nebraska and Northwestern remain very, very bad.

As for the championship odds, those are shown here:





As predicted, MSU's loss essentially makes the Big Ten regular season race a 2-horse affair between Maryland and Penn State. MSU's odds are now very slim (4%). Even if MSU runs the table from here on out, the odds are below 50% that they would still share the title. It is time to focus on what's next. For good measure, here is the current enhanced Big Ten standings:



So, what is next? I think that the next logical question is can MSU still get a Top 4 seed in the BTT and avoid playing on Thursday. While I cannot give you exact odds on that (my simulation doesn't quite track the right data to handle tie-breakers) I can give a pretty good rule of thumb:

If MSU can finish at 12-8 (winning 3 of the final 5 games) or better, then a Top 4 seed is very likely. The odds to finish 12-8 or better (based on the win matrix above) are about 64%. So, I think that it is safe to safe that playing on Thursday is a roughly 50-50 proposition at this point. If MSU can only finish at 11-9, a 5 or 6 seed in the BTT seems likely. A 10-10 record may only be good enough for an 8-seed. Let's try not to think about that...

Again, this is purely based on math derived from season-averaged Kenpom data. MSU is clearly under-achieving right now. MSU is in a slump and they need to pull themselves out of it. At this point, I honestly don't have a lot of faith that they are going to turn things around. However, I do still have the hope that they will. Hope and faith are very different things.

As for the case for hope, here goes. MSU is still playing enough good backetball, at times, to give me hope that there is still a good to very good basketball team in there somewhere. We saw that team in early January. The roster is still there. Kenpom suggests that on average, they are still there (still 10th overall). MSU just hasn't been able to string together more than about 20 minutes of good effort together at a time recently to actually beat many good teams. Can and will that get better?

I think there is hope that it does. For one thing, MSU has been playing A LOT of games right on top of each other for the last month. For the last 7 games, MSU has been playing on either 3- or mostly 2-days rest. The remaining 5 games are more spread out. MSU has 4 days off before the game at Nebraska and another 4 days off before hosting Iowa, and then 3 days off before a trip to Maryland.

While that may not seem like a big deal, I think that it is, both from a rest stand-point as well as a practice standpoint. When we also consider the fact that half of the team seems to have had the flu over the last month, perhaps it is no surprise that the team is a step slow at times. A step slow is enough to get beat most nights in the Big Ten.

This is also typically the time year when Izzo is (trying) to tighten the final screws on team. He will have more time to do so over the next few weeks. The only question is whether the screws still have threads on them. I hope that they do, but I cannot be certain.

There is that word again... hope. A few weeks ago I would have used faith. Now, we are down to hope. Hope is not nothing, but it also isn't a strategy. Fortunately, I am not the one that needs to develop and execute the strategy to try to fix this team. That man is Coach Izzo. While I don't necessarily have faith in this team anymore, I do have faith in Coach Izzo. If anyone can fix this... it's him.

Next up is a mid-week trip to Lincoln to face the very bad Nebraska Cornhuskers. MSU needs to leave town with its 10th conference win, or things could get very, very ugly. At this point, we cannot and should not look any farther ahead. Let's just take this one step at a time and hope for the best. Go Green.

On right now, Fox Sports Detroit.

Michigan State obviously needs to show up better than they did on Friday night.

What a difference a few hours can make. In my last update, I mentioned that the previous 48-hr period endured by MSU fans was perhaps the darkest on-court/field 48-hr period that I could remember as an MSU fan. The loss at Michigan followed by the apparent sudden reversal of Luke Fickell was a face jab / gut punch combo of epic proportions. The football coaching search appeared to be in shambles. Moreover, the basketball team was on a 3-game losing streak with the potential of it quickly turning into a 5-game streak. Things looked grim.

In the first half of game at Illinois, things looked great. Early in the 2nd half, MSU built a 20-point lead. But then, things started to slide. The lead was quickly cut back to 13... and then 7... and then with 5 minutes left, Illinois actually took the lead.

Here we go again.

Instead of the feel-good dominating road performance that we have been waiting for all year, it looked like it is just another chapter in MSU's latest horror show. What is worse than getting behind big, trying to fight back, yet falling short? I will tell you: it's squandering a huge lead and then falling short at the end.

But, fortunately, Cash and Xavier had different plans. FINALLY, MSU was able to close out a close game on the road, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. The win felt good. As the old saying goes, it is always darkest just before dawn. It might have been close to midnight EST when the Tillman scored the winning basket on a put-back dunk, but it seemed like the sun was starting to peak a bit over the horizon.

Then, when actual Daybreak arrived Wednesday morning, MSU fans were greeted with even more good news: the hiring of Coach Mel Tucker to lead the football team. I could go on for paragraphs about this subject, but suffice it to say that a new era has clearly dawned on MSU football, and the future looks a heck of a lot brighter than it did on Monday. Only time will tell if he was a good hire, but I remain, as always, optimistic.

But, the main event of this post is basketball, so the natural question to ask is how much did MSU's big win in Champaign impact the overall Big Ten race? As usual, the table and graphs below show the updated win matrix and trends, derived from Kenpom efficiency data.









While MSU's fortunes are certainly on an upswing, the bump from winning at Illinois was not as large as I expected. MSU's trimmed the gap to current first place team Maryland to about 1.5 games, but Penn State also increased the gap between 2nd and 3rd thanks to their big win at Purdue.

Meanwhile, as I predicted a few weeks ago, Illinois seems to be regressing to the mean a bit and has now fallen back to 4th place, almost a full game of expected wins behind MSU. After that is the standard log-jam of 7 teams with expected win totals roughly between 11.1 and 9.7. Wisconsin currently leads that pack, with Michigan edging a bit closer to 10 wins on the back end. Nebraska and Northwestern are still bad.

As for how this translates to odds to win or share the Big Ten title, that matrix and trend plot is shown here:





Again, while MSU is clearly moving in the right direction, the odds to win / share the Big Ten regular season only edged up slightly to just below 20%. Meanwhile, Maryland and Penn State's odds are at 60% and 51% respectively. Illinois's odds have fallen to 6%, while Iowa, Wisconsin, and Rutgers all still have odds between 1 and 2%.

To give a bit more information, the enhanced Big Ten standings are shown below



As I think about the big picture, here is what is basically happening. MSU is two games behind Maryland and one game behind Penn State in the loss column, with only 6 games to go. As a result, MSU basically needs to run the table in order to win the Big Ten. Considering 3 of those 6 games are against Penn State and Maryland, there is certainly opportunity.

But, MSU essentially used up all of its mulligans already. MSU will win the Big Ten at 15-5, but if MSU drops one more game, they are going to need a lot of help. Now, the good news is that based on the luck calculation, both Maryland and Penn State might be due for a stupid loss in the near future. Maryland has already had a few very close calls (at Indiana and this week vs Nebraska both ring a bell) and they seem ripe for a bad game. I said the same thing about Purdue last year before they traveled to Minneapolis late in the season last year. The Terps have road games at Ohio State, Rutgers, and Minnesota remaining (in addition to the 2 games vs. MSU). If MSU cannot sweep Maryland, we need them to drop at least 2 of their other remaining games.

As for Penn State, MSU will get a crack at them in State College in a few weeks. But, PSU's remaining schedule is quite a bit softer than either MSU or Maryland. They face MSU and Illinois at home, and their road games are at Indiana, Iowa, and Northwestern. Even if MSU sweeps Maryland but loses at Penn State, it is the Nittany Lions that would need to lose 2 of those other remaining games. That is possible, but it is easy to see why PSU's odds are almost the same as Maryland's despite being a game back in the loss column.

For now, it is one game at a time, and that next game is Saturday against Maryland, as MSU celebrates the 20th (gulp) anniversary of the 2000 National Title. This is a game MSU needs to win. Period. One can't help but think back to a similarly embroiled MSU team in 2016, clad in neon green, who desperately needed (and got) a win at Breslin against a ranked Maryland team. With a win on Saturday, MSU stays in the Big Ten race and will add a very valuable win to that NCAA tournament resume. Lose, at it is time to start officially start reevaluating the season's goals.

From earlier this morning:

https://michiganstate.rivals.com/news/what-s-next-tucker-is-hunkering-down

After MSU's thrilling win over Illinois last night (and other action), here are the updated Big Ten odds (based on Kenpom efficiencies)

Maryland: 61%
Penn State: 48%
MSU: 19%
Illinois: 5%
Iowa: 5%

MSU did not move up as much as I expected, while Penn State's rise is notable. The Nittany Lions win in West Lafayette was big. Also, Maryland came pretty darn close to losing at home to Nebraska (which would have been nice).

https://michiganstate.rivals.com/news/dotcomp-sorry-not-sorry-tucker-ready-to-roll

**

We will have more coverage today and tomorrow. Lots of good quotes, notes and video to come.

Fasten your seatbelts.

The layover between roller coaster rides might not be a long one.

I am hearing rumblings from three different sources that Michigan State's coach search is moving quickly again, not slowly.

This was the word from SpartanMag sources all day. Now it's being reported by Hondo Carpenter via unnamed sources that the rumors are in fact true and Michigan State has hired Mel Tucker to be the next Michigan State head coach.

My first go-to source is verifying that this true.

I'm awaiting more.

I met with someone close to the selection process at about 2:30 a.m. early Wednesday morning, three hours after news broke that Michigan State had agreed in principle to hiring Mel Tucker as the school's 25th football coach. In discussing some aspects of the courtship of MSU's soon-to-be head football coach, the closing hours of MSU's pursuit of Tucker very much mirrored the wave of rumors and tips that SpartanMag.com fielded and vetted on Tuesday.

Tips began flying in through SpartanMag.com sources at about 1 p.m. on Tuesday that Michigan State was back at the plate, with a good chance to land a new head coach by the end of the day. Shortly thereafter, after receiving more tips from credible sources, I posted Coach Update VI.

Good sources continued to tell us to varying degrees that things were cooking for Michigan State. Ocasionally, a source would name Tucker as the target. Most sources weren't giving up any names, or weren't told any names, but confirmed that something big was happening. Some people knew, but weren't telling. There was some tenseness to it that was different than the Fickell chase. I think people learned from the Fickell situation. I chose not to relay Tucker's name in the thread, initially. But, from the beginning, he was the guy I thought was most likely to be the man, if Michigan State were to wrap this up at mid-week, or possibly Shurmur.

I did a guest spot on the Mad Dog radio show in Lansing at about 4:45 p.m., while fielding tips on my phone, and officiating over the Coach Update VI thread. Mad Dog DeMarco asked me, one after the other, on the air, about potential candidates. I told him I didn't think Brian Hartline or fluff candidate du jour Jim Leonhard were qualified candidates at this time. I did tell him that I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan State circled back and made a run at Tucker, and I told him I believed Michigan State would in fact reach out to Shurmur again. I didn't know it at the time, but both had already happened. I was on the air and fielding tips simultaneously. That was a new one for me.

Then everything went quiet between 5:30 p.m. and 8:30 p.m.

Meanwhile, rumors spread that Michigan State was interested in Pat Shurmur, to the point that the Denver Broncos had to release statements from Shurmur that he wasn't leaving for Michigan State.

Tips from other avenues within the sports industry, a source of information that I've found reliable over the years, were leaking out info that linked Michigan State with Shurmur, Tucker, Harlon Barnett and even Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry. Heads were spinning.

That's when I started to wonder if we were all being catfished, or smokescreened. The Shurmur rumors were especially effective.

I have since been told by sources within that sector of the sports industry that misdirections were in fact put in place, to divert attention from the Tucker chase. I have a hunch that those diversions were set in motion by search firm executive Glenn Sugiyama, but I can't prove it, and it's probably not important. He might just give a proud poker face smile if I asked him if this were true.

If word of MSU's interest in Tucker had gotten out earlier in the day, it might have damaged MSU's chances.

Around 6:30 p.m., I posted that if Michigan State were to hire someone so soon after the Fickell disappointment, it would likely be someone that had already interviewed, someone who had already been vetted.

Privately, in speaking with Paul Konyndyk, Big Moobie Ron Armstrong, Matt Dorsey, and others, we believed that if Michigan State were to hire someone at mid-week, it would have to be someone whom the Board of Trustees would endorse quickly. Tucker and Barnett fit that category, and possibly Shurmur. Anyone else would likely require more deliberation and wouldn't enable the process to end that fast. I spoke with a source earlier in the day that led me to believe strongly that Robert Saleh wasn't interested, wasn't in the conversation.

I posted that I believed that it would be a smart move for Michigan State to circle back and go after Tucker, while I also predicted that at least a portion of the search committee would reach out once again to Shurmur (something had taken place, but not yet to my knowledge). I had believed this would be a smart, likely move all day, but I didn't post it until about 5 p.m. I posted Tucker's name ALONG with Shurmur's name, to spread out the lightning rod a little bit. (Actually, this post was an accident. I wrote the post, and delayed pressing the "post" button for more than 30 minutes, trying to decide whether it was a good idea or not, trying to decide whether the Bunker could handle the info, and whether it might set off flashing lights all around the internet about Michigan State and Tucker, something that at that point I believed could throw tacks in MSU's tires in the Tucker chase. The message window remained open on my screen for more than 30 minutes. I accidentally posted it while thinking I was responded to a different post. Then it was out there, there was no taking it back, and we had to talk about it a little bit. I stressed that Michigan State circling back for Shurmur and/or Tucker was only my line of thinking, with no sources backing it up at that point.)

At that point, I didn't know for sure that Michigan State was pursuing Tucker. I had received information from sources telling me that Michigan State had reached a deal with Tucker, Tucker was going to be the man - information that turned out to be premature. At that point, I didn't fully believe the sources, but there's no question there was a big Tucker plume of smoke out there. I was still wondering about the evidence of a catfish diversion.

Also, the one thing that never added up for me, was the interview that Tucker did with a Denver radio station earlier on Tuesday. If he was heading to Michigan State, why would he do that interview? I kept asking myself that, and asking sources that, throughout the day. I talked about it with Paul, Moobie, and others. We tried to find out if the radio interview had been pre-recorded. The radio interview made me think that even Tucker might be part of the catfish scheme, but that would seem cruel and dangerous to put a coach in that position, a coach who couldn't afford to be dragged into Michigan State rumors AGAIN. So I didn't know what to think, but the tips from earlier in the day about Tucker to Michigan State still lingered.

A source later told me that Tucker didn't agree to sit down and hash things out with Michigan State until after that radio interview. So Tucker, in his heart and mind, was truly still the Colorado coach when he did that interview. But Michigan State was still knocking on his door, and he knew it.

**

Getting back to the person I met with at 2:30 a.m., he said things were looking good for Michigan State and Tucker around 2 p.m. on Tuesday - right around the time that those positive rumors started to fly.

Then, he said, things suddenly didn't look as promising around 6 p.m., for reasons he didn't disclose - and that was right around the time the rumors and tips came to a screeching halt from my sources. And with it, our Coach Update VI thread dried up. I shut it down at about 7 p.m.

That's also about the time that I started to wonder again if the whole thing was a giant catfish diversion, including some of the Tucker info. And we began floating that theory on the Underground Bunker message board, at a different thread.

I thought it was relatively harmless for a smokescreener to manufactor job hunt hype about Shurmur. Shurmur doesn't have a locker room full of former recruits and parents to level with and answer to. And it's safe to use Barnett as a smokescreen. Job rumors involving him aren't going to affect his current source of income. And Pry at Penn State is happy for any publicity he can get. On Monday, he called an ESPN writer to squelch rumors of his interest in Michigan State - rumors that didn't even exist. But he apparently wanted some rumors. (And Pry was in fact on Sugiyama's initial list of Michigan State candidates. Sources tell me Pry was reached to gauge his interest. Remember the original flight plans of the Michigan State plane that flew to Colorado, Northern California and Cincinnati? Remember the flight plans that were slated to go from Cincinnati to State College, Pa.? Well, that flight plan did in fact reflect original plans to speak with Pry. But those plans were canceled. Later, sources told me the State College flight plan was a diversion in itself, and I reported it that way here. But in actuality, it was a legitimate plan at first. One theory is that Sugiyama held it as a diversion as long as he could, even after the meeting with Pry was canceled.)

**

In speaking with my source who was close to the selection process, I found it amazing that the wave of optimism within the MSU chase was congruent with the wave of rumblings that we fielded and relayed here on the message board. The wave for each started at the same time, reached a crescendo at the same time, and flat-lined at the same time - temporarily.

Meanwhile, I thought Bunkerites did a good job of not overreacting when we pretty much narrowed it down to Tucker being the man. I'm not sure how many Bunkers added it all up and realized that Tucker had to be the man. I didn't come out and point it out to them. But I'm sure that some of you did.

I wasn't watching Twitter, but it's my understanding that most of the rumors on Twitter surrounded Shurmur. I think that was the work of the diversion. If all of that Twitter hubbub had centered around Tucker, combined with the tense moments that took place around 7 p.m., the entire process might have been knocked off-balance.

MSu and Tucker needed this process to stay ultra quiet until an agreement in principle was in place.

Well, it looks like this day is going to come and go without anything breaking (although I think when Dantonio was hired, it broke after 10 pm). But usually if things get this late, then things will likely stay quiet the rest of the night.

Just to relay to you what I'm thinking: Based on the flury of serious rumblings earlier today, I would be surprised if we are back here at this hour tomorrow with no news. That's just my expectation, not based on any heads-up from any sources.

If there is no news at this time tomorrow, I will really be scratching my head, wondering what kind of seismic pump fake was going on. But right now, overall, gun to my head, I don't think a pump fake is going on. There are indications that there were some misdirections in other areas as a decoy. I really do. Glenn Sugiyama is known for decoys. But I think something else is in the works and close.

I have been following MSU sports in various capacities since as far back as I can remember. For me, that goes back to the mid-1980s and at least the Scott Skiles era, if not farther. While much of that time was before our current 24/7-instant-information-from-the-Twitterverse era, I think that the following statement still rings true:

From a purely sports point-of-view, I cannot think of a 48 hour period of MSU sports in my lifetime that has been more soul-crushing that than this past weekend into Monday morning.

As for football, it really did seem like MSU just might have formulated and executed a plan to bring in their #1 choice to replace Coach Dantonio. It was almost like there was a legitimate succession plan in place that might have actually been in place for a short while. Was it possible that MSU actually had its crap together?

No, of course not. Because the hard truth of it is that being an MSU fan is sometime like volunteering to get kicked in the groin repeatedly. I have always been the eternal optimist, but today? That's about the only words of wisdom I have.

As for basketball, how's that going? Like the nightmare that you had two nights ago, but almost forgot about due to the new nightmare last night, it seems almost like a fading memory that MSU went into Ann Arbor, laid an egg, and got beat by one of the more mediocre Wolverine teams in recent memory. Cool, cool, cool.

So... how bad is it? Well, here is the updated Big Ten win matrix after the disaster in Ann Arbor, followed by the extremely sad trend plots.









In expected wins, MSU is now over two games back of Maryland, and down to 4th place overall, less than a game back of Penn State and Illinois. Iowa now sits a half game back of MSU, with Wisconsin, Purdue, and Rutgers about a full game back (at around 11). Minnesota and Ohio State are still hanging around 10, while Michigan and Indiana are a bit lower. Nebraska and Northwestern remain bad.

As for the odds to win or share the conference crown, let's just cut to the chase... it's not great:





But, then again, I suppose it could be worse? MSU's odds of 14% are just a hair below that of Illinois (15%). Right now, Maryland (74%) is clearly the team to beat and Penn State (25%) and their #14 ranking in Kenpom has made a surprise jump to 2nd place in this metric.

As for the enhanced Big Ten standings, those are shown here:



By virtue of beating Illinois on the road last Friday, Maryland has now leapfrogged Illinois to lead in the category of +/-. Maryland also currently holds the leagues highest Kenpom rating, so it is no wonder that their odds to win the conference are so high.

So, what now? As I said, I am the eternal optimist, so if you are emotionally ready for optimism, I will give it a go.

First, MSU still (for now) controls its own destiny. MSU is two games back, but plays at least one game against every team ahead of us in the standings. If MSU runs the table, we still win the Big Ten. That's not nothing... even if the odds of that are only about 2%.

Second, the advanced metrics still like MSU, despite the 3-game skid. MSU is still #10 in Kenpom and #11 in the NET. MSU is also one of only 5 teams or so that is still in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This may sound crazy, but those are still significant ingredients to a deep run in March. The ceiling of this team is still high, especially considering the field overall looks weaker than usual.

Third, nothing about the current skid seems uncorrectable. There are obviously a lot of challenges surrounding the team that are causing problems, whether they be personal tragedies, impending births, or a case of the flu. MSU is also struggling through the part of the season with the highest density of games. Tuesday will be the 7th game since January 23rd at Indiana. As a result, most of current issues seem to be effort and focus related. Those things can get fixed. And, based on Izzo's track-record, those things most likely WILL get fixed. It's not like two starters are out for the season with injuries.

I think that there is still some, if not a lot of good basketball left in this team. But, they still might accumulate some more ugly losses before we see it. But, I am confident that we WILL see it. Right now, MSU is projected to be a roughly a 5-seed. So far, MSU has "earned" that seed.

Eventually, I think that MSU will get pretty much exactly the seed that they deserve. It they can regain their form soon, that seed will go up. It not, it will likely continue to drop. There is certainly the scenario where MSU drops to something like a 7-seed or worse. But, I can tell you one thing, and that there is not a coach in America of a Top 10 team that wants to see Tom Izzo lined up in their bracket as a potential 2nd round opponent. Not one.

So, chins up, Spartan fans. Nobody said this was going to be easy. Onward to Illinois. Go Green!

I’m hearing that today’s interview with Luke Fickell went very well.

As we’ve reported since the beginning, he has been the lead candidate all along. The process toward landing Fickell took monstrous strides today.

As posted earlier, Mel Tucker dropped out of consideration for the Michigan State head coaching job with this tweet today:

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So what does it mean and what's next?

My sources have their ears to the ground, but things are very quiet.

One line of thought is that Tucker could see the writing on the wall that this job is headed toward Luke Fickell.

That was the belief earlier in the week when Pat Narduzzi quickly dropped out of the running. There were initial attempts to invite Narduzzi in for an interview, but prevailing thought is Narduzzi also recognized that he wasn't the A-list candidate. From a public relations standpoint, Narduzzi couldn't afford to let Pitt hang in the wind for more than half a morning on Wednesday. Pitt has lost too many coaches to other jobs in recent years, and although Narduzzi has had some success at Pitt, he hasn't had enough to make them sweat it out. So he had to opt out quickly.

News of Tucker's candidacy escalated last night when Chris Solari reported that Tucker was scheduled to interview with Michigan State today (Saturday). I confirmed with my sources that Tucker was set to interview.

Like Narduzzi, Tucker decided to opt out of the running before it could become a negative firestorm back home. There are few things worse for a college head coach than to be caught attemping to get a job elsewhere, only to come up short. It's a shameful walk home.

Rather than go all out for the MSU job, hang in the wind, and lose, Tucker cut bait and announced his plans to stay in Boulder.

Similarly, San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh was scheduled to interview on Saturday. Shortly after news broke of his scheduled interview, he told NFL.com reporters that he was canceling and staying home. Losing a job derby wouldn't be shameful for an NFL coordinator, but Saleh is a pro guy and is expected to stay in that level.

Add it all up and the prevaling line of thought is that the college candidates are dropping out because they feel Michigan State is already set to hire Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell.

SpartanMag.com reported on Wednesday night and Thursday morning that contractual progress was in full gear for Michigan State to make an offer to Fickell. The offer didn't come on Thursday, as university wheels were set in motion to stage interviews and carry out a traditional hiring process before entertaining the thought of forwarding an official job offer.

Interviews were set to begin today. It's unclear whether Tucker interviewed with Michigan State.

So when is Fickell going to interview at Michigan State? One source believes that it will be on Sunday, but again, that has not been verified.

What's the worst-case scenario? Fickell decides to stay at Cincinnati with improvements to his $2 million contract, less stress, fewer challenges and an easier schedule at the Group of Five level. That would leave Michigan State with a Plan B pool of Mike Tressel and perhaps Chris Creighton and others raising their hands to be considered. I don't think things are headed this way. For now, the uncalm quiet is heading toward a lightning rod announcement of some sort from Fickell or Michigan State, which could still be at least one or two days away. Either he's awaiting an interview and an offer, or he will opt out, which again doesn't seem likely considering the prepared contract and all the tea leaves. MSU's football future awaits.

Is there an unknown candidate that has been kept ultra quiet? I have heard not rumblings in that area.

Stay tuned.

After you jokers finally went to bed, I was able to write this darn thing:

https://michiganstate.rivals.com/news/the-hot-board-tucker-making-an-impact

Now I have to figure out what I'm going to wear tomorrow and get to bed and get on the road at 9 a.m.

I’m hearing that negotiations between Michigan State and Luke Fickell's representation are over for the night. Sources tell SpartanMag.com that Michigan State and Fickell are close to agreeing in principle.

Like I posted earlier, Fickell is working to make sure his staff is cared for. Other items continue to be negotiated, including the buyout.

As for the base deal, I’m hearing something in the neighborhood of $24.5 million over five years.

Since it has been a slow week for MSU sports news and the fact that there are no Big Ten games on Thursday, it seems like a good day to provide as update on the current status of the Big Ten basketball conference race. Obviously, Tuesday night's game went... poorly. But, exactly how much damage was done to MSU's chances at a Big Ten 3-peat? Let's once again turn to the expected win table, based on the most up-to-date Kenpom efficiency numbers:









For the first time all year, MSU has dropped out of first place in both the actual standings and in the expected win race. I now have MSU in third place, almost a full game behind Maryland and about 0.3 of a game behind Illinois. In addition, MSU is now just a hair (0.02 games) in front of Penn State, who has now moved into 4th place.

More than a game back from the Nittany Lions is Iowa (11.30) and below the Hawkeyes is a log-jam of 5 teams (Rutgers, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Purdue) all with expected win totals between 10.4 and 10.9). The bottom four is then rounded out with Indiana and Michigan at just below 9 wins, with Nebraska and Northwestern a distance 13th and 14th.

As for the odds to win or share a Big Ten title, the updated odds table is shown below:





As the trend graph shows, the events of the last two days had a huge impact on the Big Ten odds. MSU's odds were still over 50% coming into the Penn State game, and now they are down to only 26%. MSU's loss is Maryland's (and Penn State's) gain, as both teams rocketed up to odds of 51% and 23% respectively. Illinois also ticked up to 33%.

As for the updated Big Ten standings, those are shown here:





There are two ways to look at MSU's current situation. Right now, MSU is not playing well. Period. Just a few week ago, as the plot shows, MSU's odds to win the Big Ten were around 80%. BUT, the math that backed that calculation makes the tacit assumption that MSU would continue to play at the same level that they had been playing up to that point. Right now, MSU seems to be regressing.

I hate to invoke the term, but right now, MSU is a front-running team. If they start strong and get out to a big lead, then they are fine. But, if any sort of game pressure is applied to MSU late in the game, they have not shown the ability to respond. I am ashamed to say that in the final 4 minutes of the game against Penn State, I had little to no confidence that MSU was going to pull it out. For me, they lost the benefit of the doubt. They need to prove to me that they can win in winning time. This is the view of the pessimistic side of my brain.

But, I am an optimist. While MSU is currently in a funk, there are some potential explanations. First, MSU just finished playing their 4th consecutive Big Ten game on only 2 days rest. Several other Big Ten teams have 3-game stretches of short rest, but no other Big Ten team this year has a 4 game stretch. Also, the majority of the team seems to be recovering from or suffering through the flu right now. Neither of those factors will continue in the long term. Right now, MSU is also getting every team's best shot. As MSU collects losses and in general as the season moves on, this will also be less and less of an issue.

In addition, we have seen Izzo teams go through a similar funk in late January or early February before. Most of the time, they power through it. I still like the potential on this team a lot, and I still think it is more likely than not that this team will get their crap together. The only question is whether it will be too little, too late to hang a banner.

The schedule from here on out is not very forgiving. But, maybe that is just what the doctor ordered. I feel like this team needs to play with a bit of a underdog mentality. Considering the math shows that they are no longer the favorite, I suppose that is exactly where they are now. Now, they need to play like the underdog every night.

At the beginning of the current 5-game stretch, I said that MSU needed to go 3-2 to tread water. They are currently 0-2 in that stretch. The next three games (@ Michigan, @ Illinois, and vs. Maryland) present an opportunity. If MSU wants to get back into the Big Ten race, they have a great chance over the next 2 weeks. If MSU can somehow win those 3 games, they will vault right back to the front of the class. That all starts Saturday afternoon in Ann Arbor. MSU needs to win that game... for so many reasons.

In the mean time, there is also a huge game on Friday night as Maryland travels to Illinois. My calculations show that the result of this game actually do not impact MSU's odds very much at all, but in general I can say that an Illinois win (as the lower ranked home team) would bump MSU's odds up slightly, which a Maryland win has almost no impact. Go Illlini.

That is all for today. Until next time, enjoy, and Go Green.

The confidence meter is rising.

One of the sources who told me Dantonio was retiring yesterday is telling me it's a done deal with MSU and Fickell.

Still seeking further confirmation.