Pre-Snap Read: MSU vs Northwestern
By Jim Comparoni
EAST LANSING - In July, the Northwestern game loomed as a critical bellwether game for Michigan State in 2019, a pivotal moment to help determine whether Michigan State was a 7-5 team or possibly a 9-3 team or better.
Then Northwestern looked terrible in 17-7 loss at Stanford in week one, especially at the QB position.
That game started to look more like a likely win, and a 5-0 start for Michigan State.
Then Michigan State had its 10-7 pratfall loss to Arizona State.
Meanwhile, Northwestern had a week off and looked much better against a middling UNLV team, especially at QB, winning 30-14.
Meanwhile, Stanford has looked putrid in losses to USC and UCF.
Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald mentioned in passing that he would love to play Stanford now, rather than Aug. 31. His QB is better, Stanford is worse. That’s the nature of college football. Teams can change quickly. Northwestern often improves steadily as a season progresses, similar to the Tom Izzo effect.
As for Michigan State, I have no idea what kind of operation they will bring to Ryan Field at noon on Saturday.
Michigan State is capable of playing a sound, sharp, physical game and winning by 10. I think that’s the betting line, about 9.5. But I see that as less than a 40 percent chance of taking place, winning by that kind of margin.
The procedural problems in game one against Tulsa were somewhat unsurprising. That stuff happens in week one.
The improvements during week two were impressive and encouraging.
Then last week’s relapse was maddening and disturbing. Michigan State was the better team on 70 percent of the snaps, but no partial credit is given on the scoreboard when you miss field goals and hit drive-killing mistakes just outside of the red zone.
The errors on defense - three of them - during ASU’s game-winning drive were unexpected, uncharacteristic and perhaps emblematic of a panic problem that this team is carrying, when things get tight.
Well, things will be very tight this weekend. After the loss to ASU, this game feels like a must-win for the Spartans. Mike Panasiuk pretty much said as much during post-practice interviews on Tuesday. Not only do they need a win to avoid a 2-2 start, but also to start feeling good about themselves, the off-season work they put in and the belief they carried into the season.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
As for Northwestern, they looked last week like Northwestern. Their d-line is good again, with one standout player on the edge (97 Gaziano). I expect Michigan State to have trouble running the ball again, as was the case last year. I expect Northwestern’s defensive line to win the OL vs DL matchup when Northwestern has the ball.
Northwestern’s tackling in the secondary, and at times at linebacker in space, has been substandard for two games. Their tackling angles were poor on two occasions last week, allowing two long TD runs.
That stuff is correctable. And when the team is Northwestern and the coach is Pat Fitzgerald, those things usually get corrected.
If Northwestern continues to have a tackling problem in the secondary on Saturday, that will obviously help Michigan State. But I’m not sure Michigan State has the type of explosiveness to elicit tackling errors. Lack of explosiveness, lack of depth at skill positions on offense, is a problem Michigan State is going to have to overcome and work around for the entire season, unless there is some unforeseen player development on the horizon.
MSU’s defense will do a good job for most of the day, again, on Saturday. But Northwestern is Northwestern. They get to open spaces, play pitch and catch, and move the ball against Michigan State, probably better and more consistently over the years than any Michigan State opponent, with the possible exception of Ohio State.
The thing that has stood out about Northwestern over the years, and will be the case again on Saturday, is that they play quick. They might not have speed burners. But they play quick.
They get out of their stances quickly on offense and defense, they get into their steps quickly, they run hard and there are no false steps. There were exceptions in the back seven on defense in the first two games. Michigan State has to hope those problems continue. I’m not sure they will.
I would call this game a 50-50 toss-up. I don’t know how Vegas arrived at Michigan State being a 9.5 favorite. But when Vegas has a “funny line” like this, it seems they usually know what they’re doing. But I don’t see it. I’m expecting this game to be a nerve-wracking grind.
THE LATEST ON MICHIGAN STATE
The big variable is left tackle Tyler Higby. He is slated to start at left tackle on Saturday, with Kevin Jarvis having been lost for at least six weeks with a lower body injury.
Cole Chewins is making progress toward returning but we don’t know when he will get the nod and what version of himself he will be when he returns. His return could happen quickly and unexpectedly.
Last night, I rewatched the second half of Michigan State vs ASU again, and focused in solely on Higby. I had him with only two or three mediocre plays. In pass protection, he was smart and patient and solvent. He shut down No. 41, Johnson in pass pro.
In run blocking, if he was given or achieved and an advantageous angle, he sealed it and didn’t lose it. He moved his feet in pass pro, and moved his feet smartly to win and seal angles. He rolled his hips when necessary. He wasn’t great but he was more than functional.
That was for 30 minutes at left tackle against ASU, which was more of a finesse team on the edge than Northwestern will be.
In run blocking, Higby allowed a run-blitzing safety to squirt past him for a near-safety in the third quarter. That was nearly an expensive mistake, but he didn’t make many of them.
Unlike ASU, Northwestern will be physical on the edge. They will mix bull rushes, with two-gapping strength, with one-gapping olé moves, and some athleticism to turn the corner.
It will be a different type of test for Higby, a physical one, a 60-minute one.
Higby likely comes out of the ASU game with a little more confidence, believe it or not. Dantonio said on Tuesday that o-line coaches graded Higby out positively, and I can see it.
Higby was also the 12th man on the field for the ill-fated field goal situation at the end of the game. The injuries to Jarvis and Luke Campbell led to some indecision on who was available and who was the next-man up when Michigan State suddenly had to get into fast field goal mode. Higby took some abuse on social media and fired back at fans a little bit. That’s sad and unfortunate. Whether or not that helps give him a little more fire on Saturday, I don’t know, but Michigan State could use some.
* As for Michigan State, there is a lot of smoke and angst swirling around in regard to the Curtis Blackwell deposition. Dantonio was asked at a press conference a couple of weeks ago if the Blackwell lawsuit against Dantonio, Mark Hollis and Lou Anna Simon for wrongful dismissal would become a distraction this season. Dantonio emphatically said no. But now the Blackwell deposition came to light during the first week of the Big Ten season, in what was regarded - as I said earlier - as the pivotal game of the first half of the season.
Now that that bomb has been dropped, is it possible that it could be a distraction this week? Well, I blew about an hour last night going over that deposition. What are the chances some players did as well? What are the chances that Dantonio probably had meetings with lawyers or confidantes to assess the situation and the damage? Probably pretty good chance. Any time time and mental energy is expended on that stuff, it’s a distraction. And this team will either rally the wagons around Dantonio, or the loose wheels won’t get fixed. It’s going to be an excruciatingly important 60 minutes of football for this team, this season, the program and, frankly, the coaching staff.
Meanwhile, Michigan is facing a different kind of litmus test at Wisconsin. If Michigan and Michigan State both go down, it will be Hindenburg Saturday in the state of Michigan for college football. There is a chance one in-state team will win and one will lose, and the loser could have a hard time recovering, short-term or long-term.
THE LATEST ON NORTHWESTERN
QB HUNTER JOHNSON (6-2, 216, R-Soph., Brownsburg, Ind.)
* QB development with Hunter Johnson is the big story. He was a five-star recruit, ranked the No. 2 QB in the country coming out of high school. He signed with Clemson, and transferred to Northwestern after Trevor Lawrence arrived.
Against Stanford, Johnson was 6 of 17 passes for 55 yards, with two interceptions and a fumble that was recovered for a touchdown. He looked hesitant and lost. He was relieved by fifth-year senior TJ Green in the first half, but Green went down with a season-ending injury.
That was a tough break for Green but it might benefit Northwestern in the long-term. Johnson no longer had to worry about competing with Green for the job. There was no longer a QB controversy. The job was his, sink or swim. Last week he swam.
Johnson doesn’t look like a five-star QB, but he at least looked like a talented Northwestern type of QB last week, with a couple of exceptional throws mixed in, against UNLV. One game earlier, he looked like the worst starting QB in the Big Ten and the worst Northwestern QB in recent memory. But that was for just one week, as a redshirt sophomore.”
* Johnson was 12 of 25 for 165 with 1 TD and 1 INT last week vs UNLV. Not great numbers, but he looked better than those numbers - maybe because we were judging it against his awful performance in week one.
“I think you saw a guy a lot more confident,” Fitzgerald said of Johnson. “He got his second experience. Except for the one throw in the red zone, he took what the defense gave him. And I think he learned from that (interception) a lot. He got a little greedy and tried to play a matchup instead of playing the scheme. That has to be an us-or-nobody throw. So it was a little bit too far under-thrown.
“But I thought he had a great command of what we were trying to get done. He was opportunistic with the football, running it too. They weren’t sound in the pass rush lanes.
“He did a nice job improving and is just going to keep doing that week after week after week. Congratulations, now you’ve get the best defense in the country. He has a lot to work on to get ready for this group because this is as good as we’ll see all year.”
THE MACRO MATCHUPS
1. Like Fitzgerald said, it’s a shaky QB in Johnson against a very good Michigan State defense that is angry at itself for brain-cramping in the final two minutes last week.
How will Johnson do? That’s a big question, a major variable. We only have two games of film on him to try to get a handle on the trends and his traits. He could continue his improvement and play great. Or, in the face of an outstanding defense, he could revert back to the way he played against Stanford and play awful. That’s a wide variance, but that’s what this sport and this game is all about, sometimes.
Northwestern has done as good a job of navigating against MSU’s defense as any in the Big Ten, and doing it with less than NFL talent, most of the time.
MSU’s defense is very good, but Northwestern historically can find the edges and avenues. Two meetings ago, they destroyed Michigan State with out/corner routes by the slot receiver - over and over and over.
Last year, QB Thorson threw a perfect pass to WR J.J. Jefferson, dropping it in the bucket, for a long TD pass against good coverage from CB Tre Person.
And another accurate pass capitalized on Tyriq Thompson being beaten by a quarter step by Northwestern’s tight end (or superback as the position is called) on a wheel route.
“We’re going to have to win the one-on-ones because they are not going to let you out-number them in the run game,” Fitzgerald said. “We have to win one-on-ones and they’ve been so good at that for so long.”
Michigan State had an expensive bust in the first half for a 70-plus yard TD when David Dowell thought Michigan State was in cover-two/halves when the rest of the secondary was playing cover-four/quarters.
Meanwhile on offense, Felton Davis and Brandon Sowards dropped potential TD passes in the end zone. Michigan State had to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. That deficit put Michigan State behind the eight-ball the rest of the day.
A game-breaking, third-down 25-yard pass to Connor Heyward on an angle route was called back for pass interference on Matt Dotson, the type of call we probably never thought we would see again, until Dotson was flagged again in a huge situation last week. Both calls were questionable in my opinion.
And another game-breaking play was nullified when an option pitch was ruled (correctly but astonishingly) as a forward lateral, because the ball traveled forward in the air despite being released as a rear lateral.
Meanwhile, Michigan State tight ends were slipping and falling when two or three game-altering plays could have been made.
It was an all-around ghostly loss, similar to last week’s in terms of playing failing to finish. We didn’t know how good Northwestern would turn out to be (they won the Big Ten West by three games), and we’re not sure what to make of ASU. But Michigan State has acquired a nasty penchant of self-inflicted wounds.
Michigan State used to be the type of team and program under Mark Dantonio that prospered, in part, by not beating itself. That’s not longer the case. The defense is still good, but the rest of the operation is ridden with loose screws, for now.
2. On the other side, it will be an Michigan State offense that moved the ball well and feels it played better last week than the seven points indicate. The offense moved the ball well enough to generate at least 16 points, if Matt Coghlin makes his field goals. That would have been enough to win last week but it might not be enough to win this week.
Michigan State had trouble running the ball last week on plays in which ASU stunted. I don’t have the numbers charted, but the difference was unmistakable. Michigan State rushed for 113 yards (3.2 per carry). I’m not expecting Michigan State to do much better against Northwestern.
Northwestern doesn’t do a lot of stunting up front. They don’t have to. They are good at what they do, the way they are.
So can Brian Lewerke do more against a questionable Northwestern pass defense than Hunter Johnson can do against a potentially outstanding Michigan State defense?
Can Michigan State not only find the right plays for the right situations but also execute those plays with WRs getting the proper depth and to the correct areas (something CJ Hayes did not do on third down in the red zone last week), can Michigan State WRs and TEs get lined up properly and not get flagged for illegal motion (as they failed to do on two drive-killing or time-out-burning situations last week)? Is Michigan State ready to execute on offense well enough to merely play functional football on that side of the ball?
That’s what this comes down to, and that’s what we knew would be the case in the off-season. If Michigan State can play great defense and merely get functionality from its offense, then the Spartans should be able to win nine or 10 games (eight or nine games now that they have already blown one). And if they get that this weekend, this could and should be one of those wins. Will Michigan State get those screws tightened? I don’t want to say I’ll believe it when I see it, but I’m starting to feel that way.
3. Northwestern is very aggressive in going for the strip when making tackles. LB Paddy Fisher is the best in the country at it. Others go after it too.
Michigan State has become quite good at the art of the strip, too.
Michigan State lost last week due to deficits on special teams (three missed field goals compared to one successful field goal by ASU) and turnovers (one fumble on the plus side of the 50-yard line compared to no turnovers for ASU). You can throw penalties into the equation, too.
Will Michigan State get back on track with special teams this week? I would think so. But I wouldn’t have thought it would be a problem last week.
Penalties? Northwestern was the least-penalized team in the Big Ten last year, but they were penalized eight times against Stanford. Northwestern had false start and an illegal man downfield penalties on back-to-back plays in the red zone last week. That’s not like Northwestern. But I would imagine their penalty problem will get solved quickly.
What about Michigan State’s penalty problem? Can Michigan State solve its problem? You’ll know what I know.
I know this: Michigan State is not good enough to surrender deficits in special teams, turnovers and penalties again this week. If they are short in those areas again, then Michigan State will lose again. It’s time to tighten up the operation, out of necessity.
NORTHWESTERN PERSONNEL: THE MICRO
More on:
QB HUNTER JOHNSON (6-2, 216, R-Soph., Brownsburg, Ind.)
* Northwestern coaches thought he was over-thinking things in the opener against Stanford. They wanted him to work on speeding those things up during the bye week and into last week’s game against UNLV. He made some progress.
* Played seven games as a back-up at Clemson.
* A pretty good runner. They ran a zone read keeper with him near the goal line. He also kept on a bootleg for about 10 yards. He has decent acceleration as a scrambler, not quite Lewerke acceleration. But he can run, kind of like Keith Nichol in that category.
* As a passer, he did a good job with the slant and the deep ball last week.
* He has struggled with progressions that take him over the middle into traffic. Safeties David Dowell or Xavier Henderson could be on interception watch this week.
* Johnson stays with his read progressions a little too long. He got away with that last week, but MSU’s pass rush is pretty good and that could be a problem for him against the Spartans. Another strip sack this weekend is a possibility.
* Johnson throws well on the run and can do it to his off-hand side, the left side.
* He is comfortable with RPO reads.
++ Zipped a 12-yard TD pass to McGowan on an RPO. Very pretty, but it was called back for illegal man downfield when the center released too far.
+ Eluded the rush to the left (his off side), and threw complete to Skowronek on a comeback.
+ Pretty pass on a deep 50 yard TD strike to WR Jefferson in the 3Q to break the game open and give Northwestern a 23-14 lead. From the wide side of the field, it was a nice rainbow to a wide open receiver. They will test Josh Butler with this and if Butler falters, Johnson will connect.
- INT: Last week he threw into double coverage across the field for WR Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman.
+ First completion last week, looked off the safety to the left, cme back to WR Bennett Skowronek and zipped a good 23-yard post.
+ On 4th-and-3 on the opening drive, motioned to trips and found WR Kyric McGowan on a square out, getting a foot down. Gain of 16.
RUNNING BACKS: THE USUAL
RB 6 DRAKE ANDERSON (5-11, 190, R-Fr., Chandler, Ariz.)
* The son of former Northwestern great Damien Anderson.
* Was an unranked two-star recruit. He also visited Illinois.
* Rushed for 141 yards on 26 carries last week, with a long of 13. So he was consistently chunking.
+ Center pull kickout, Anderson good balance on the cutback, gain of 13.
* Uncommon balance on the cutback.
* Good head and shoulder fakes to set up his cuts.
* Very shifty, uncommon shiftiness on grass.
* Moves as quickly as WMU’s Bellamy or ASU’s Benjamin but is 5-11. Not sure he has the top-end speed of those guys, but he is quick in the short area. He looks like a Northwestern running back. They do a good job finding these type of RBs.
Their two-star RB recruits are good. Their recruiting evaluation at the position is outstanding.
36 RB JESSE BROWN (5-11, 210, Jr., Lilburn, Ga.)
* Was an unranked, two-star recruit.
* Had 70 career rushing yards prior to last week.
* Started last week vs UNLV.
* A one-cut, get downhill type of RB. Very hard runner. Lloyd Clemons type, but a little more juice.
* Rushed 9 times for 79 yards last week, but went down with an injury against UNLV. His status is unknown for this game.
20 RB JOHN MOTEN (6-0, 210, Sr., St. Louis).
* Has more than 600 career rushing yards.
RB ISAIAH BOWSER (6-1, 215, Soph., Sidney, Ohio)
* Went out with a knee injury at Stanford, and missed last week’s game. His status is unknown for this game.
* Rushed for 866 yards last year.
* Is reported OUT for this week by Northwestern’s rivals.com site.
TIGHT END (Super Backs): NOT YET THE USUAL
89 SB TE CHARLIE MANGIERI (6-4, 252, Soph., Peoria, Ill.)
* Was a three-star recruit, with offers from Indiana and Ole Miss.
* He has yet to make much of a statistical impact. The SB is usually a chain-mover in this offense. This guy has not yet arrived but don’t doubt the potential.
* He has one career reception, for seven yards at Stanford.
83 SB TE Trent Goens (6-3, 250, Sr., Chino Hills, Calif.)
* Moved from defense to SB this year. I didn’t notice him in the first two games.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Three Solid Ones
88 WR BENNETT SKOWRONEK (6-4, 215, Sr., Fort Wayne).
* Team captain.
* Was a three-star, ranked No. 15 in Indiana. He had offers from Indiana, Iowa, Purdue.
* 45 catches last year. 107 career catches.
* Has a decent gear to get on top on go routes.
+ Post completion on 3-8 on opening drive last week, for 23 yards.
* Had four catches for 57 yards last week.
8 WR KYRIC McGOWAN (5-10, 200, Jr., Dalton, Ga.)
* Was a three-star recruit by rivals.com, ranked No. 96 in Georgia by ESPN.
* Had offers from Duke, Minnesota, Vandy,
* Johnson seems to like No. 8 on third downs.
* He had 16 catches for 283 yards and two TDs last year.
+ 16-yard catch on a square out on fourth-and-4 on the opening drive, acrobatic job of getting his foot down.
* Had two catches for 31 yards last week.
* Went to him on a go route to the short side vs press on third and 8 last week in the first quarter and drew pass interference.
* Went to him INC for a back shoulder fade on third and medium in the red zone last week in the 1Q.
12 WR J.J. JEFFERSON (5-10, 170, Soph., Houston)
* Deep speed and good release quickness.
* 2 catches for 61 yards last week including a 50-yarder.
* 50 yard TD reception beat the CB by 2 yards.
* Has a deceptive little shift of gears on his release move vs press. He will attack Josh Butler deep at least once per half. 12 vs Butler could be an explosive play opportunity and game changer.
* He got open deep by more than a step TWICE last week.
* he had 10 catches for 181 yards and two TDs last year, including a 34-yarder vs Michigan State and Tre Person last year.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Quick As A Group
* Rather than listing the strengths and weaknesses of the entire offensive line, this is the type of group that you can describe with a blanket comment. They are quick, they are mobile, they move in unison (as they should) when zone blocking.
They start simultaneously with their pulls and zone footwork. They look like quick robots. They are pretty good.
GAME WITHIN THE GAME:
MSU’s d-line is very good. Northwestern abandoned the run game last year until the end when they tried to melt clock. I think Northwestern has a chance to be more balanced in this game, and they will need to be, because I don’t think they can turn it over to Johnson to throw 47 times like Thorson did last year.
Stopping the run is always important. It’s imperative that Michigan State halts the run, stifles it, and makes Johnson throw more than 40 times.
Maybe Johnson will look great when he throws 40-plus times. But Michigan State would like to find out if that’s the case.
**
In the run game, Northwestern likes its usual assortment of outside zones. The center can pull and kick-out block. The guards pull like quick robots.
I didn’t see many negatives last week when Northwestern was going against a leaky UNLV defense.
* Northwestern rushed for 276 yards against UNLV on 50 carries. (Asterisk: Arkansas State rushed for 214 vs UNLV in a 43-17 Arkansas State victory over UNLV one week earlier).
* Northwestern failed on a pair of fourth-down plays last week. On fourth-and-one, they went under center and ran power, but got stopped. The back-side OLB flew in and chased it down.
On fourth-and-four in the fourth quarter, Northwestern threw a quick arrow route to RB John Moten in the flat and he was tackled short of the line of gain.
Northwestern’s o-line personnel:
LT 70 RASHAWN SLATER (6-3, 305, Jr. Sugar Land, Texas)
* 28 straight starts.
* Was a rivals.com three-star recruit, ranked No. 91 in Texas by ESPN.
LG 66 NIK URBAN (6-3, 305, Jr., Willoughby, Ohio)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 40 in Ohio.
* Had offers from Duke, Illinois, Maryland, West Virginia.
* Four career starts.
- Allowed a pressure early in the Stanford game, leading to an interception. Beaten on a head-and-shoulder move to the inside.
C 65 JARED THOMAS (6-4, 310, Sr., Indianapolis)
* Was a three-star recruit, No. 8 in Indiana.
* Had offers from BC, Duke, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Syracuse, Wake.
* 19 career starts.
+ Mobile guy can pull and kick out.
* Regarded as their second best o-lineman.
RG 52 SAM GERAK (6-3, 291, Soph., Avon, Ohio)
* Three star recruit, ranked No. 41 in Ohio.
* Had offers from Illinois, Iowa State, Rutgers, Syracuse.
* Did not appear in any games last year.
RT 73 GUNNAR VOGEL (6-6, 300, Jr., Columbus, Ohio)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 29 in Ohio.
* Had offers from Ivys and Western Michigan and Air Force.
- Overset on one occasion vs Stanford in the 1Q and allowed an inside move for a pressure.
* First-year starter. Saw action in three games last year.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Good & Quite Good
* A good, fun d-line to watch if you are not playing against them.
Names to Know:
97 JOE GAZIANO (6-4, 275, Sr., Scituate, Mass.)
* Three-star, No. 1 in Massachusetts.
* Had offers from BC and Rutgers.
* Quick, Strong, Fast and can turn the corner, and is mean when he gets there.
* Second-team All-Big Ten last year at the deepest talent position in the conference.
* Big basher who will surprise you with his ability to turn the corner with quickness at the end of his pass rush, to converge.
* It’s hard to run to his side. He wins and sets the edge vs the run.
* Can get you on your heals with a powerful bull rush then convert to a rip to disengage.
BIG MATCHUP & IMPACT: Tyler Higby was functional last week. But can he hang against Gaziano? Can Jordan Reid hang against Gaziano. Northwestern could get disproportionate results in these edge matchups if Michigan State gets into too many passing down situations. Chip block help from RBs and TEs might become a necessity. Will that cut down on Elijah Collins’ playing time? Can he chip block effectively against 97?
* The rest of the group is good to solid. Most of the DTs are good against double teams.
* They will mix in two-gapping burly strength, and some one-gapping quickness on slants.
* As for uncommon traits, their d-line will “spike.” That’s kind of like a slant, when a d-lineman moves from a gap to another gap, slanting across the face of an o-lineman to try to penetrate into the next gap.
Spiking is the evil cousin of slanting.
Spiking means the d-lineman moves at the snap. But instead of slanting from one gap to another, they will line up in a gap and then move slightly to one side and then go head-up INTO the offensive lineman. Rather than trying to cross his face, they will go into his face and two-gap him, rather than one-gap him.
* Sometimes they just play a straight two-gap.
Then as an o-lineman when you get powered up at the snap to take on a burly two-gap technique, they do an olé move past you as a one-gap. They change speeds. They do it well. They are a pain in the rear. Their d-line has been the most underrated unit in the Big Ten over the last couple of years.
That being said, their starting DT, 96, is just okay. His back-up might be better.
Their second-string comes in and there is no dropoff, other than when Gaziano sits. They only have one Gaziano.
The others:
DT 96 TREVOR KENT (6-6, 280, Pittsburg, Kan.)
* Was a three-star recruit, No. 1 in Kansas.
* Had offers from Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Penn State.
* Played in six games last year.
- Slanted and then gave up too much movement on a 65-yard TD run in the first quarter last week. When slanting, you lose some power in your core.
* He isn’t as good as the guy the starter they had at this position last year.
* Kent played in six games last year.
* Not great vs double teams
DT 95 ALEX MILLER (6-3, 300, Sr., Houston)
* Two -star recruit. Ranked No. 211 in Texas by ESPN. rand be
+ Good job splitting the double team and getting a tackle for a no-gain run late in the 1H last week.
* Had four tackles vs Stanford, a TFL and a QB hit.
* Miller and 90 Jake Saunders as two-gapping DTs will be the best Michigan State has seen this year, and they will beat Campbell and Bueter in short-yardage up the middle.
* He was a regular on the defense last year, moved into the starting lineup this year.
DE 91 SAM MILLER (6-3, 270, Jr., Houston)
* Three-star, No. 99 in Texas.
* Had offers from Indiana, Texas Tech, Colorado State.
* Started 14 games last year.
back-ups
DE 53 Eku Leota (6-4, 255, R-Fr., Asheville, NC)
* Quality d-end. Some pass rush to him.
* had a half-sack vs Stanford.
* Is OUT with an injury this week
DE 99 Earnest Brown (6-5, 270, Jr., Aubrey, TX)
* 7.5 TFLs last year.
* Would start for a lot of Big Ten teams.
* three-star recruit, No. 60 in Texas,
* had offers from Arkansas, Baylor, Duke, Iowa, Houston, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas.
DT 90 Jake Saunders (6-2, 295, Jr., Loveland, Ohio)
* Squatty body, hard to uproot. And can get upfield on you. Excels as a two-gapper.
* Had only played two games prior to this year.
* Three-star recruit, No. 68 in Ohio.
* offers from Pitt, Oregon State, Illinois, Wisconsin.
DT 93 Joe Spivak (6-0, 290, Darien, Ill.)
* Was a no-star recruit. Had offers from CMU and Air Force.
* Played in three games last year
* pretty decent battler. Good take-off.
* Stumpy guy got movement by two-gapping the left guard to stuff a third-and-1 inside zone in the third quarter last week. Key play in what was a 16-14 game at the time.
LINEBACKERS: Protect The Ball, MSU
MLB 42 PADDY FISHER (6-4, 246, Jr., Katy, Texas.)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 120 in the state by ESPN.
* Offers from Baylor, BC, Houston, Indiana, Wisconsin, Washington.
* First team All-Big Ten last year and AP third-team All-America.
+ Good job knocking the ball out during a text book strip tackle last week in the 1Q.
* And did it against vs the RB in the 3Q. Both were big plays.
* He has 11 career forced fumbles, which is the active leader in the FBS.
* INT last week, didn’t bite on a run fake and quickly got depth, identified where the WR was likely to come from and nabbed an interception in zone coverage. That looked like it was pure film room work.
* Weakness is probably sideline to sideline speed.
ILB 51 BLAKE GALLAGHER (6-1, 235, Jr., Raynham, Mass.)
* Three-star recruit, No. 2 in Massachusetts.
* Offers from BC, Cal, Duke, Maryland, Pitt, Nebraska, UNC, Virginia.
* Led the Big Ten in tackles last year, but miserably missed a pair of tackles in space, in the flat vs RBs, against Stanford in the 1H.
* HM All-Big Ten by coaches last year.
OLB 28 CHRIS BERGIN (5-11, 190, Bloomfield Hills, Mich., Country Day)
* It looks like he will be wearing jersey No. 1 this weekend. I don’t know what that’s about. That’s what he’s listed at in the web site. I don’t know if that’s a misprint or an old roster.
* They list him as a DB, and he is DB size, but he plays a slot LB.
* Had offers from Army, Air Force and Ivys.
* Former walk-on, son of former Michigan State player Joe Bergin, who was a member of MSU’s 1987 Rose Bowl team.
* Short-arm scrapper in the slot who does a decent job ripping through the hands of blocking WRs and TEs. Eric Gordon type, if you remember for the former Spartan from the mid-2000s, but smaller.
* I’m not sure how Northwestern prevents him from getting isolated and run right at, off-tackle.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: Not The Best
* They play a lot of deep zone on first and second down, keeping things in front of them. You have to be patient on offense. They try to make you go the length of the field in 10 plays, banking that you may mess up.
* They change it up on third down. They will show man-to-man, usually press, on at least one of the WRs, sometimes all three.
They’ve done that for a few years. It should make them susceptible to problems athletically but they usually get by.
This year, I’ve seen more off-bracket vs one or two of the other WRs. So that becomes a combination coverage. It becomes trickier than it looks to slice the through the air, in past year.
* Individually, there are some question marks. The CBs are a little shaky but I’m not sure Michigan State has the WRs to take advantage.
* All four starters in the secondary missed a tackle or had an angle error in the first 17 minutes of the game last week. That’s very uncharacteristic of a Fitzgerald/Hankwitz defense.
3 CB TRAE WILLIAMS (6-0, 203, Sr., The Plains, Ohio)
* Was a three-star, ranked No. 49 in Ohio.
* Was a spot starter in each of the last two seasons.
- Took too thin of an angle on UNLV RB Charles Williams, allowing the RB to get outside for a 65-yard TD run.
- Missed a tackle on a sideline hitch early in the Stanford game. Not a good tackler in space.
* Played in the slot on third down nickel vs. Stanford. He will match up vs Darrell Stewart a lot.
* Hurt his left knee against Stanford, but didn’t miss the UNLV game.
2 CB GREG NEWSOME (6-1, 180, Soph., Chicago/Bradenton, Fla., IMG Academy)
* Was a three-star recruit, ranked No. 97 in Florida.
* Offers from Arkansas, BC, Illinois, Iowa, Virginia, Harvard, Va Tech.
* Missed a tackle in the 1H last week, rallying to the ball on a short pass.
- Too thin on a third and 2 inside zone which bounced outside, around CB Newsome who was too thin on his leverage, lost containment for a 37-yard TD run in the 2Q which gave UNLV a 14-10 lead.
- Pass interference on a deep fade last week.
* had two pass break-ups vs Stanford.
* Started four games last year.
13 SS JR PACE (6-1, 205, Jr., College Park, Ga.)
* Three-star, ranked No. 89 in Georgia.
* Offers from BC, Duke, Maryland, K-State, Minnesota, Navy, Purdue, Vandy, Wake.
* HM All-Big Ten last year.
* Strong in defeating blocks.
7 S TRAVIS WHILLOCK (6-1, 200, Jr., Katy, Texas)
* Two-star recruit, ranked No. 162 in Texas by ESPN.
* Eric Smith type.
* Active player. Has at least 10 tackles in three games in his career.
* Second-year starter.
SPECIAL TEAMS
* Kicker Charlie Kuhbander was 3 for 3 on field goals last week, including one from beyond 40 yards. He struggled beyond 40 last year.
ADD IT ALL UP
A very uncomfortable assignment, but the potential for Michigan State to feel great about itself if things go well. This test is a tough one, and a crucial one.
The Michigan State offense will put pressure on itself to score touchdowns in the red zone and not leave things to kickers and penalty flags.
The Michigan State defense will put pressure on itself to win the game 2-0 if necessary.
There is a lot of pressure on Michigan State. Pressure busts pipes, but it also created diamonds.
Northwestern will play loose and happy, without quite as much desperation. Michigan State needs this more than Northwestern. That’s usually a swing factor. But that was the case last week as well. Now, can Michigan State mix effort with sharpness? If and when they do this, Michigan State is a difficult team to beat. The question is how many times out of 12 will Michigan State achieve that this year. So far they are one of three.