Now that the Big Ten regular season is almost over, it is time to start thinking about the possible scenarios in the Big Ten Tournament next week. I have still not found a great way to do a thorough calculation of the various tie-breakers, but I managed to sort-of brute force the calculations and last night I finally got all the formulas figured out such that I am confident in the odds. It also helps that with only 7 total regular season Big Ten games left, the number of possible scenarios is more manageable (only 128, down from over 30,000 just a few days ago). So, here is what I have:



Since Tuesday night, we have know the situation at the top. Once again, the winner of the MSU-UofM game will get the 1-seed. The loser will get the 3-seed unless Purdue blows their last game at Northwestern. All odds are derived for the most up-to-date Kenpom efficiency margins. MSU will be favored to beat Michigan, so MSU is the current favorite to get the 1-seed.

As we move down the chart, it is clear that Wisconsin and Maryland are locked into the 4 and 5 seed, with the Badgers with the inside track to the double bye. There are actually only 8 scenarios out of 128 where Maryland sneaks into the 4-seed slot, and they all involve Maryland beating Minnesota, Wisconsin losing to OSU, and both MSU and Purdue winning this weekend.

After that, things get a bit messier for seeds 6 to 12, but the matrix give the mostly likely result at each seed.

If I take this analysis one step further, it is not too difficult to calculate the odds for which team MSU will face on Friday. Without getting into details, here is the result:



This takes into account the odds that MSU will be either the 1-, 2-, or 3-seed as well as the predicted odds that (for example) Indiana will beat Ohio State in the 8/9 game. As you can see, MSU could face any one of 8 possible foes, but it is 50-50 that it will be either Indiana or Ohio State.

I think that we can all just prepare ourselves that it is going to be Indiana. Great.

Finally, based on the most likely bracket, I went ahead and simulated the whole BTT. Based on 1000 Monte Carlo style simulations, here are the odds for each team to make the semi-finals, finals, and cut down the nets:



So, right now, MSU is still the favorite to win the BTT. Both MSU and UofM have about a 50-50 shot to make the finals, which translates to only a ~25% chance that we have to all endure a 3rd match-up this year. Incidentally, if I make the assumption that MSU loses on Saturday and re-run the simulation, I get essentially the same odds. (Actually, MSU's odds went up slightly to about 36% as the 3-seed, but that might just be a sampling size error and not anything significant)

All this said, keep in mind that none of this analysis takes into account MSU or any other team's injury or suspension situation. It just assumes that each team will play to their season averaged level.

It is almost one-and-done time. Go Green and enjoy.

Well, well, well. It seems that those folks that suggested that Purdue was likely to drop a road game turned out to be right. It feels good to the a "realist." As a result, coupled with MSU's sort of sloppy, but "good enough" win over Nebraska, and we now have ourselves a situation. Things are now very, very simple:

-The winner of the Michigan-MSU game at Breslin on Saturday night will claim at least a share of the Big Ten Title
-Purdue will join that team if they can win on the road at Northwestern.

The math is now very simple as well. Here are the projected spreads for those two games:

UofM at MSU (-5): 68% chance for MSU to win.
Purdue at NW (+7): 75% chance for Purdue to win.

Also of note is that Purdue is locked out of the #1 seed in the BTT. If Purdue beats NW, they are the 2-seed. If they lose, they are the 3-seed.

The winner of the MSU-UofM game will be the 1-seed in the BTT. The loser will most likely be the 3-seed, unless Purdue loses to NW, in which case they will be the 2-seed. Either way, MSU and UofM will not be able to meet until the Finals of the BTT. So, if we take this all together, these are the odds that we get:

MSU / Purdue both win (52%)

1-seed: MSU
2-seed: Purdue
3-seed: UofM

UofM / Purdue both win (23%)

1-seed: UofM
2-seed: Purdue
3-seed: MSU

MSU wins / Purdue chokes (17%)

1-seed: MSU
2-seed: UofM
3-seed: Purdue

UofM wins / Purdue chokes (8%)

1-seed: UofM
2-seed: MSU
3-seed: Purdue

So, that's it. For those that have always wished for UofM and MSU to be on par with the UNC-Duke rivalry, I think this is the closest that we have ever seen... likely ever. Personally, I prefer life in 2000 when MSU beat UofM by 1,000 points on Senior Day. That was objectively better. But, here we are.

I will say one more thing and that is: if MSU wins on Saturday, is Izzo Big Ten coach of the year? I think he should be... Who else ya got?

Bring it home boys... Go Green!

I have been tinkering with some more numbers related to seeds and Kenpom rankings under the general theory that the Kenpom rankings should be a pretty good indicator of relative strength and weakness of teams in the upcoming NCAA tournament. I have run a few simulations over the past 1-2 weeks and reported out here which brackets look good or bad.

But, today it occurred to me that there is perhaps an easier way to visualize this. Here is what I did. I have Kenpom data back to 2002 and I can use that to specify the usual average and standard deviation of the Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin as a function of seed.

I then went to the bracket matrix website site and pulled the current consensus projected seeds for the entire field. I then plotted the data on the same chart. For the Top 8 seeds, this is the current snapshot. The blue circles are the Kenpom average for that seed and the error bars represent one standard deviation from that mean.



Here are current takeaways:

1) Things look a bit top heavy this year. The Top 3 games (UVA, Gonzaga, and Duke) are all very strong 1s, historically speaking. All the projected 2-seeds are well above average, as are half of the 3-seeds.

2) That said, it would be appear to be very beneficial to be in the same bracket as the weakest 1-seed, who is most likely to be the SEC champ, I would guess. The good news for MSU is that this is likely going to be a site that is a good geographic match for MSU, so the odds are a bit better that this will happen.

3) As for the 3-seeds, it looks like Houston and LSU are the teams to hope for. If MSU can hold onto a 2-seed, our odds are decent to get one of the two in our region, because the committee will almost certainly separate MSU, UofM, and Purdue into different regions. It would not appear to be beneficial to draw Texas Tech, based on this analysis, and if VA Tech jumps up to the 3-seed line, that also seems like a bad draw.

4) Other than VA Tech, the other 4-seeds look relatively weak, while the 5-seeds look fairly average to strong. Marquette in particular looks like an interesting candidate to lose in the 1st round.

5) The 6-seeds and particularly the 7-seeds look strong. If MSU does get a 2-seed, Cincinnati would be best to see in our region. Auburn looks a little scary. Meanwhile, the 8-seeds look a bit weak.

As for the bottom half of the brackets:



6) The 9-seeds look very average

7) The 10-seeds look a little above average, but ironically, MSU has already played (and beaten) 3 of them (Texas, Florida, and Ohio State). I would hope the committee would know this and pair us with NC State, if it comes to that

8) The 11-seeds look average to weak, with St. John's being the weakest. If MSU slips to a 3-seed, this could come into play.

9) The 12- and 13- and 14-seed all look pretty average right now, with Clemson and New Mexico State being two teams to watch out for.

10) The 15-seeds all look above average, with Northern Kentucky looking the best. That team has been paired with MSU in some brackets and seems likely to be MSU's opponent if MSU stays in Columbus. Loyola Chicago (or Montana) seems more likely if MSU winds up in Des Moines.

11) Colgate looks like a really strong 16-seed. You never know....

Now, that all said, college basketball remains very chaotic and unpredictable. I have not gone through enough past brackets to know how well this type of analysis might yield some hints as to how a bracket might shake out. That said, Kenpom data is a pretty good predictor of the odds of certain results and on average, I would expect this type of analysis to be right more than it is wrong. But, the variance is going to be large. This analysis might only be "right" 55% or 60% of the time (if that).

But, I think this is fun, so... enjoy!

Crazy stat of the day: MSU has 10 "quad 1" wins based on the current NET rankings. The entire Pac 12 conference combined has 12.

You win some; you lose some. There have been a few days and weekends this season when everything seems to go MSU's ways. For example, the win in Ann Arbor and the evening when MSU beat Wisconsin come to mind. Then, there are weekends like this past one when basically everything that could have gone wrong did. Not only did MSU piss away a winnable game due to some poor late game execution and bad luck, but Purdue got a bit of a break with OSU and Michigan actually beat a decent team on the road (which frankly surprised me a lot). So, things are not looking great. Exactly how "not great?" Well, here is the current win matrix:



With the trends for expected wins shown here:



As for the odds to win or share a Big Ten Title, Purdue is now absolutely in command. It would take a pretty epic meltdown in West Lafayette for them to blow this one. Here are the odds:



As for more detail:

Odds of a Purdue solo title: 55%
Odds of a Purdue / MSU tie: 26%
Odds of a Purdue / UofM tie: 13%
Odds of an MSU solo title: 5% (still not zero!)
Odds of a UofM solo title: 2%

With so few games left, the situation is not that complicated. If Purdue wins out, they get a solo title. While it may seem like this is a lay-up, the Boilers have two road games left and they have not honestly played well on the road at all this year. There is still roughly a 50-50 chance that they blow one of those two games, and frankly, they seem due for some bad luck (but I have been saying that for weeks now)

As for MSU, it really comes down to the Michigan game. Right now, Kenpom has MSU as a 5-point favorite in that one, which historically means a 67% chance MSU will win. (This 2/3 vs. 1/3 math is why MSU's odds are roughly double that of UofM's odds above) Now, if we consider the "Nick Ward" discount, the actual spread might be down around 2-3 points, but MSU is still very, very likely to be favored, unless some catastrophic happens Tuesday night vs. Nebraska.

As for BTT seeding, I posted this last night, but here are the current odds that I calculate. I think that they may not be 100% mathematically rigorous, but they should be close. Getting the tie-breaker logic built into my calculations in annoying. I will solve that puzzle one day, but it might not be this week. For now, this is what I have:

MSU's odds:

1-seed: 30%
2-seed: 36%
3-seed: 34%

Purdue's odds:

1-seed: 55%
2-seed: 38%
3-seed: 7%

Michigan's odds:

1-seed: 15%
2-seed: 26%
3-seed: 58%

Finally, I seem to need to play of the role of the Chief Optimism Officer on this board, so in that vein here is your pep talk: do not let the emotions of the loss in Bloomington get you down too much. MSU still played well enough to not just win, but to cover the spread for 36 minutes of that game, IU had a lot of things go their way, and MSU still almost won.

Also, think about this: what would your state of mind be had MSU lost in Ann Arbor by 9, yet had beating IU on a buzzer beater? The record would be the same. I think that most people might actually feel better today in this scenario than in the one we are actually in. Yes, MSU picked up 3 bad loses in conference play, but MSU also had, by far, more quality wins than any other team. So, it really is just a question of whether you choose to focus on this team's ceiling or its floor. Yes, this team could absolutely flame out and lose on the first afternoon of the tournament. But, it could also still be playing in April, because we can still roll out a starting 5 that can beat anybody and have a HOF coach on the bench. Are the odds of this great? No, of course not, but they are better in reality, than most other teams out there.

That all said, the real story for me is the health of Arhens and McQuaid. If McQuaid (who missed two 3s in the final 4 minutes on Saturday) can get back to 100% by the Tournament, that helps a LOT. But, if Arhens really is done, that is a BIG problem. I actually think that might be a bigger problem than not having Ward, because right now I think Kithier is better than Gabe Brown. You would much rather have both, but... here we are.

So, chins up Spartan fans. It's March and there is still a lot of basketball yet to be played. While the last 14 months or so have felt a bit like the Book of Job for us (for the Sunday School crowd) the story isn't over yet.

Go Green.

(I almost forgot the win trends for the rest of the Big Ten)

So that was a bit painful. I think that everyone can and has agreed that in the current situation, MSU is still a very good team, but one with a small margin for error. When you score ZERO points in the final 4 minutes of a road game, you are likely not going to win. Plus, as other have pointed out, this team has not been great in close games down the stretch. MSU needs to learn how to win on the last possessions of a game. I would rather lose today and perhaps learn a lesson than to face the same situation in the round of 32 and choke. Actually, I would rather that they learn that lesson today and win... but what can you do?

Anyway, where does MSU stand now in the B1G race? Well, here are the up-to-the minutes stats:

Odds to win or share the B1G title:

Purdue: 87%
MSU: 39%
Michigan: 13%

In more detail, we have:

Purdue solo title: 52%
MSU/Purdue tie: 28%
MSU solo: 10% (note: this is higher than zero!)
UofM / Purdue tie: 10%
All other scenarios: <4%

Incidentally, Purdue is currently blowing out OSU, so that would push the odds of a Purdue title (win or share) to 93% and drop MSU's to 32%.

So, the race is not over, but today was a game MSU needed to win. You just cannot lose to a bad team twice. Purdue, for all of their faults, has not done that this year. MSU has 3 times in conference play. So, that's where we are.

So, here are the relevant stats related to that:

Historically, this corresponds to a 74% chance MSU wins, which of course is critical. MSU has a great chance to beat the rapidly flagging Huskers mid-week and might just wind up clinching the Big Ten by March 5th when Purdue goes to Minneapolis. Then, MSU could beat the Wolverines on Senior Day to earn solo possession of first place and earn Izzo's 600th win in the process. But, that all starts with winning in Bloomington.

Based on Kenpom data, MSU should be closer to an 8.5 point favorite, which suggests the "Ward injury adjustment" is around 3 points per 100 possessions in marginal efficiency. This would drop MSU from #4 to #7 in Kenpom, still slightly ahead of Michigan. This adjustment would also put MSU is a virtual tie with Purdue in odds to win / share the Big Ten title at 70% vs. 65% in MSU's favor.

Some expanded quotes from Cole and Izzo about the fund-raising thing that was talked about earlier this week. You can read the last quote and wonder whether it means Izzo might become a candidate for an office job or THE office job (A.D.) at MSU some day.


Cole bullish about national title trek




Jim Comparoni • SpartanMag.com
@JimComparoni

EAST LANSING - Michigan State hockey will fall short of its goal to host a first-round playoff series but coach Danton Cole is as bullish as ever about the future.

The Spartans have made progress this year in skating with toughness and accountability for 60 minutes in most games, especially in the second half of the season. Michigan State hasn’t racked up as many wins as Cole was hoping for. The Spartans were a point away from second place in the Big Ten four weeks ago, but have slid back to seventh in the seven-team conference standings heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

Michigan State is 11-16-5 overall in Cole’s second season at the helm, and 7-11-4 in the Big Ten.

Michigan State will face first-place, No. 7-ranked Ohio State for a pair of games in Columbus, beginning tonight (6:30 p.m., BTN2GO) and finishing Saturday (5 p.m., BTN PLUS).

He feels the Spartans achieved his objective in being tough to play against, game-in and game-out -- something that could make Michigan State as dangerous as any team from second to seventh place in next week’s first round of the Big Ten Tournament.

But Cole wants more than just being a tough out.

“Being tough to play against, that’s not all you want to be, but I think that’s where you have to be able to start,” Cole said. “That’s kind of the ground floor and the process we want to go. We want to be a tough out every night and if we don’t come out and play with that attitude and mindset, we don’t win a game.

“But that’s not good enough. There’s not a place in the standings for moral victories.

“We’re playing the games to win. We want to have some momentum going forward. Our approach doesn’t change. We come out, and Friday is the game we’re worried about, and then it’s Saturday. That’ll be the same way in the playoffs, and after we win our fourth National Championship as a program, that’s the way we’re going to approach the next fall.”

After making that statement, a Lansing television reporter was surprised that Cole made the national championship prediction matter-of-factly.

“It’s when, not if,” Cole countered.

Why so confident?

“That’s the way I am,” Cole said. “I see what we have here. I think the commitment to the hockey program here, the history we have here, the players we are starting to attract, our staff - I think it’s here. We’re building toward that. It’s not a rebuild, it’s a build.

“We’ll keep moving in the right direction and if we get the right group of guys, and if they can have the right mindset and the battle that this group has, this is a championship mentality that this team has. It’s right to the end, whether we’re up, whether we’re down. I’ve been around enough winning teams. That’s what they have. If we can keep that as we keep improving things around here, we’ll be in good shape and we’ll have that kick at the can at some point.”

As for recruiting, Cole couldn’t talk about specific players but said:

“It’s been good. The way the recruiting cycle is with college hockey, the immediacy of it (is different).

“The long term issues in terms of the reception from advisors, the reception from NHL teams, the reception from players and coaches in the arenas has been outstanding. The more people see us play, they see the direction it’s going. The buzz and the interest has gotten better. It’s good.

“We are still trying to push it over the top. We want to be a destination school. Like Coach Mason said, you want to go out and elaluate and pick players as opposed to recruiting them. I don’t think we’re there yet but we are definitely moving in that direction. I think parents and student-athletes see the improvement that our players have made and if they want to move on it hockey, this is a great place to be.”

FUND RAISING & FACILITIES
Michigan State is expecting to break ground on renovations for Munn Ice Arena next fall, with donations still being pursued.

Cole said Michigan State has “about $10 million right now and we hope to have a couple of other large donations coming in so to get around the $12 million dollar range by June I don’t think will be an issue.

“Internally we know where the money is at. We will have some announcements coming in the near future. It’s moving in the right direction. We are finishing our fund-raising and we’re moving forward on the project.”

The renovation will include a Hall of History, similar to the one at Breslin Center, but most of the improvements will be geared toward the players - with recruiting and player development chief concerns.

Cole complimented Tom Izzo for helping encourage donations.

“Coach Izzo and Coach Dantonio are the front porch to our university,” Cole said. “They are influential people, nationally. Coach Izzo has been outstanding. He never hesitates to pick up a call in terms of fund-raising, and that includes hockey. When they were out in Arizona for the football game, there was a big group of people and he was out there working. He and Bill Beekman have met with people. He meets with people around here.

“It lends us a lot of credibility when he’s out there saying we’re doing the right things. He’s a big fan. He’s been a great mentor and supporter and invaluable for me in my first few years here.

“He talked a little bit about his vision at the A.D.’s luncheon (on Monday). He is all-hands-on-deck all the time for all sports."

Izzo was asked about his fund-raising work during MSU's press conference on Tuesday.

"I believe in Michigan State Univerisy and I believe in everything about it," Izzo said with a smile as he pounded a fist on the podium. "What’s not right, I hope I get a chance to help fix it. What is right, I hope I get a chance to help make better.

"I do think that hockey has needed an uplift. Some of our other sports have needed it and we have done some things; I see lights going in at baseball. Football needs some things and I’m going to try to help them on. I’m not going to help us (MSU basketball) on any of the facility things right now because somebody did a good job of helping us already and it’s my turn to help somebody else.

“I told you I’m on a new mission and that’s to win in basketball and to make this the greatest, safest, best university in the country and I’m going to do that until I’m done. And then I’ll probably do it after I’m done.”

WHAT’S NEXT




With two games remaining against Ohio State, the Spartans could finish anywhere from fifth to seventh in the Big Ten. If the season ended today, Michigan State would play a three-game series at Minnesota next week in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament.

A first-round series for Michigan State at Notre Dame, Michigan or Penn State are also possibilities.

“The way we have approached everything all year is let’s just take care of everything we can for the next game and that plays into this weekend getting ready to play a tough Ohio State team,” Cole said. “We’ll show up Friday night and continue to get ourselves ready for the playoffs.”

(There were a few other threads on this, but I decided that I would create one more. You're welcome.)

OK, I sort of went down a big rabbit hole on something. So much so that I think I need to type it as one of my "blog post" pieces. But, here is the short version, for now:

Based on my analysis of basketball and NCAA tournament for well over a decade now, I have come to a few clear conclusions. They are:

1) The most reliable predictor of the odds that a team wins or loses is the Vegas spread
2) This statement applies equally to the regular season as well as the tournament, as it perfectly explains the rate that (for example) a 15-seed will upset a 2-seed.
3) Kenpom efficiency data is a very good tool to estimate the Vegas spread and/or the odds that in a given match-up, team A will beat team B.

So, if I put all this together, I can (and did) put together a spreadsheet to simulate any arbitrary NCAA tournament bracket. It will essentially tell you the odds that any seed will make the Final Four. My basic analysis says that in a perfectly statistically average bracket (from a Kenpom point of view) the Top 4 seeds will have the following odds to make it to the Final Four:

1-seed: 36%
2-seed: 21%
3-seed: 12%
4-seed: 9%

When I compare my simulation to the actual results over the past 40 NCAA tournaments, it matches pretty well. The actual data says the 1-seed rate is slightly higher (41%) but the other three values are within 1%.

So that's the background. Now, when I plug in the current ESPN projected bracket with Kentucky as the 1-seed and MSU as the 2-seed, and so on, and use the current Kenpom efficiency data, the result strongly supports the ideal that has been discussed today that "MSU wants Kentucky". This looks to be a very favorable bracket for MSU.

In detail, my math suggests that MSU would have a 42% chance to make the Final Four, which is double the normal odds for a 2-seed. UK's odds are only 26%. As I look at the bracket, the reasons for this become a bit more clear. MSU's current Kenpom metrics are better than UK, and well above average for a 2-seed. On the other hand, UK would be a slightly below average 1-seed.

But, there are some subtleties that actually make this bracket even more favorable than it appears on its face. Specially, the 7- and 10-seeds (Washington and VCU) are both "below average" (meaning their current Kenpom margin is lower than the historical average for those seeds.) Also, Houston is a "below average" 3-seed. So, it would seem that MSU would have a slightly easier path to the Regional Final.

On the other side, Virginia Tech as a 5-seed looks very undervalued based on current Kenpom ranking. Even crazier is that Bucknell is a strong 16-seed. Kentucky's path in this bracket in more difficult than a typical 1-seed.

Perhaps the weirdest part of all of this is that if I swap MSU and UK, MSU's odds as the 1-seed actually go down by a few percentage points. As a general rule, you always want the 1-seed over the 2-seed, but based on this analysis, MSU is actually better off as the 2. Crazy.

Now, please feel free to add any caveat you would like about the impact of Ward's injury, the role of individual match-ups, etc. That is all valid. But, I cannot really calculate that, so here we are. So, I am going to continue to play with this new toy that I created and I will try to update the board when I have something interesting to say.

Enjoy!

I will tell you what: it is a great day to be a Spartan fan in SE Michigan. Yesterday's win over the Wolverines was perhaps the most satisfying win in the last several years. Last year's two losses and early tournament exit, coupled with yet another luck-fueled Final Four run for the Wolverines, coupled with essentially a lost season of football due to injuries had left most of us with more than just a bad taste in our mouths. But that all went away around 6 PM last night. It was if the skies parted, the sun came out, and the world suddenly became a kinder and more beautiful place. Enjoy this one.

Perhaps more importantly, yesterday's win helped to give the Big Ten college basketball world a nice strong dose of reality. (At least for now) we no longer need to hear the stupid rhetoric about how Beilein owns Izzo or how the Michigan program has somehow passed MSU.

Please.

The reality of the situation is that Michigan is simply no longer a joke of a program. Actually, in their current form, they remind me a lot of the early Bo Ryan teams. Do you remember all the "Bo owns Izzo" talk? Yeah... Back then, Wisconsin would beat MSU fairly frequently, and on rare occasions, they even made it farther than MSU in March. Would anyone now say that Bo is a better coach or that Wisconsin is a better program that MSU? No, they would not, and the same is true of the Wolverines.

The other analogy that I think is a bit over-played is the one that proposes that UofM basketball is sort of the equivalent of MSU football. On some level, I think that this analogy is reasonable, as I think that both teams are well coached and generally do a good job with with player development. However, the problem is that argument is that is subtly puts up a false comparison between MSU basketball and UofM football. The fact is that MSU basketball has been far more successful than UofM football over the past 25 years. I would also argue than MSU football has been far more successful than UofM basketball over the past 10 years. But, this is what the Wolverines need to mumble to themselves such that they can sleep at night. I suppose I should not try to rob them of that.

But, I digress. If you clicked on this thread, you probably want to know how MSU's win last night affected the overall Big Ten race. Without further ado, here is the updated win matrix



For now, MSU has reclaimed the top spot and currently leads Purdue by 0.3 expected wins, based on an extrapolation of Kenpom efficiency data. Meanwhile, Michigan is now almost 2 games back, with only 4 games to go. Good luck with that. As for the visual trends, those are shown here:



As for the odds to win or share the Big Ten title, those odds are shown here:



MSU now has a 78% chance to at least share the title, with Purdue's odds also strong at 58%. Meanwhile, the poor Wolverines are now under 10%. Actually, there are very much in danger of falling below Wisconsin and Maryland in the standings and needing to play on Thursday of the Big Ten tournament.

As for the other odds:

MSU solo title: 40%
MSU/Purdue tie: 37%
Purdue solo: 19%
MSU/UofM tie: 6%
UofM solo: <1%
Odds that UofM finishes ahead of MSU: 3.2%

The odds for Purdue may seem a bit low, but they have 4 games left to MSU's 3 games, and the Kenpom math actually says that Purdue's game at Minnesota is a more likely loss than MSU's home game with Michigan. MSU has over a 50% chance to run the table, while Purdue's odds are only around 35%.

But, once again, we have to consider the fact that without Nick Ward, these metrics made be a bit inflated. MSU looked great yesterday, but can they sustain at that level? Probably not. But, can they still gut out a few 4-5 point wins that would have been 10-15 point wins with Ward? Let's hope so.

For completeness, I again have the trend plots for the rest of the conference:




Enjoy the week (off) and Go Green.

Ask, Spartanmag community, and ye shall receive. As usual, I will post the full matrices in the morning, but this data should be very close. After tonight's win, MSU is back in control of the Big Ten and their own destiny. As for expected B1G wins:

MSU: 16.44
Purdue: 16.12
UofM: 14.62

As for odds to win or tie:

MSU: 79%
Purdue: 58%
UofM: 8.1%

Other odds:

MSU solo title: 40%
MSU/Purdue tie: 37%
Purdue solo: 20%
MSU/UofM tie: 6%
UofM solo: <1%
Odds that UofM finishes ahead of MSU: 3.4%

As for MSU's remaining games, Kenpom says:

@ Indiana: -9, 78% odds to win
vs. Nebraska: -13. 90% odds to win
vs. Michigan: -6, 71% odds to win

Odds to run the table: 53%
Odds to win at least 2 of the last 3: 92%

Enjoy this win, Spartan fans. I certainly plan to wear my MSU sweater tomorrow at work in Ann Arbor. It should be a nice, quiet, relaxing day at work! Go Green!

One aspect of tomorrow's game that I am really curious to observe is actually the psychological part. Rod alluded to this on one of his podcasts, but it has been my feeling that a major reason why MSU has lost in the last three games with the Wolverines is due to mindset. UofM just seemed to be the more focused and determined team.

That should never, EVER happen in this rivalry. EVER.

One could argue and speculate about this point for hours (making comparisons to football... whatever) but to my eyes, that is what happened. I feel like 2 years ago MSU squeaked past Michigan and home and then on the return trip to Ann Arbor, they flat out did not take Michigan seriously... and they got blown out. I chalked it up to a young team and a lesson learned.

Last year at Breslin, MSU was coming off the loss at OSU and they were around a 10-point favorite. Once again, they seemed to take UofM lightly, which was inexcusable after the beat-down in Ann Arbor the year before. Then, I had the feeling that in the Big Ten Tournament, the team was on a long winning streak and felt it was their turn to even the score. But, for the third time in a row, MSU seemed not sharp, and they lost yet again. Was some of that Michigan's new found love of defense? That was likely a contributor, but I don't think it was all that.

So, after a 3-game losing streak to the evil empire, has this MSU team finally learned their lesson? Are their backs finally against the wall enough to find good focus and energy? Will the lose of Ward galvanize the team even more? I really, really hope so.

That said, this game is interesting in part because it is essentially a must win game for the Wolverines. With road games left at Maryland and at MSU, they simply cannot afford to lose tomorrow and stay in the B1G race, especially since Purdue won again today. An MSU win would sink UofM's odds down to about 10% to even just share the title. I wonder if that pressure will be a negative for them.

Furthermore, did their little run of success over MSU and in March last year go to their heads? It doesn't take much at all in that town to drag out the "little brother" mentality. Is it possible UofM might take MSU lightly?

The game flow will be interesting as well. If MSU starts slow, UofM might smell blood, and this could get away from the green-and-white real quick. But, if MSU starts strong or makes a patented big 2nd half run, UofM might just pucker and turtle. That would not surprise me at all either.

We shall see.

Those that follow Kenpom style advanced metrics are likely familiar with "the 4 factors." I am not sure of the exact history, but the basic idea is that there are 4 factors that primarily contribute to winning and losing in basketball. Those factors are (in order of importance):

1) effective shooting %
2) turn over %
3) offensive rebounding %
4) free throw attempt rate (FTA/FGA)

Basically, factors 1 and 4 capture the ability to score or get to the the FT line, while factors 2 and 3 capture the number of scoring opportunities.

I have been looking at the coming match-up between MSU and UofM and I just wanted to try to give a quick summary of the analytical side of this match-up.

When MSU has the ball:

Statistically, MSU does two things on offense very well: shoot (#15 in the country) and offensive rebound (#20). MSU is the best team that UofM has faced this year in either category. So, despite the fact that Michigan does a great job defending both of these areas (#7 in effective FG defense and #34 in defensive rebounding), there is some reason for optimism here. That said, UofM is also the best eFG% defense MSU has faced and in the Top 2 of defensive rebounding. So, this is truly strength on strength.

As for the other 2 factors, MSU is just OK at getting to the FT line (149), but UofM has been very, very good at "not (getting called for) fouls." (5). So, if MSU can draw some fouls and get some freebies, that would be a big story line. This was one of the ways in which Penn State staged an upset. But, I would not expect to see MSU at the line very often.

Then, there are the turnovers. MSU is not great in this regard (201), but the good news is that UofM does not exactly focus on creating turn-overs either (138). So, I think that this is simply a question of focus. If MSU can avoid casual mistakes, UofM is not going to create a lot of TOs. This may be the key on offense for MSU.

When UofM has the ball

When it comes to just shooting, this is the match-up where MSU appears to have the biggest advantage. MSU is #5 in eFG% defense, which again in the best defense that UofM has seen. But, in contrast to the opposite match-up, Michigan is just an average shooting team (124). MSU needs to dominate this match-up.

As for getting to the FT line, UofM simply does not draw a lot of fouls (291) and MSU is pretty good at "not fouling" (64). So, it would be unusual for UofM to have a huge day at the line. The stats suggest the FT line should not be a factor in this game at all. But, we shall see.

But, Michigan is very good at one thing on offense, and that is taking care of the rock (#3 in TO rate) while MSU flat out doesn't create TOs (326). This is a stat to watch as it has the potential to compensate or over-compensate for the relative lack of shooting. If MSU can play lock-down D and if UofM gets casual with the ball (somehow), UofM is unlikely to score enough points to win.

As for rebounding, UofM is not very good at it, on the offensive end (285), while MSU is just OK at cleaning the defensive glass (136). This is a match-up that MSU needs to and should win.

Add it up:

So, if we take all these things into account, here is what I think we can expect to see. The FT line is not likely to be a huge factor. MSU may have a very slight edge, statistically, but it is unlikely to be big. If either team has a big edge here, it will be notable. Similarly, I would expect rebounding to roughly cancel out. I don't think either team will have a big edge here in scoring opportunities.

As for shooting, it will be a battle when MSU has the ball, but the stats say MSU has a bigger edge in this regard when UofM has the ball. MSU needs to (and should) win the shooting battle.

But, the turn-over story could be the deciding factor. MSU is likely to turn over the ball more than UofM. The question is whether they can shoot (or defend) well enough to over-come this deficit.

Either way, I think that it is best to think about this game as playing with house money. It is almost certainly the toughest game on the whole schedule. If MSU wins, we control our own destiny. If MSU loses, it will definitely suck, but it is not season crushing.

Go Green and enjoy!

In the hoop feed article this morning it was mentioned that he hurt his back again (?) and he certainly seemed slow to get up a few times last night. I think that this might be burying the lede a bit. This is a big deal if he is going to be limited.

I think that MSU can survive the next few weeks and still achieve most or all of their goals, but the margin for error is close to zero. If Ahrens is out or severely limited, MSU is simply out of options on the perimeter. Gabe Brown would basically need to play better than we have seen him play so far this year, and that is not the recipe for success.

I am optimistic that MSU can still win a lot of games as long as it only relies on players all giving MSU what they have shown in the past that they can deliver. I am not optimistic in expecting players to suddenly do things that we have not seen.

It wasn't pretty last night, but the key thing is that MSU got the W and didn't completely crap the bed in the Big 10 race. On Tuesday night, Purdue managed to win at Indiana, and as such they have drawn near even with MSU. The updated win matrix (as always derived from Kenpom efficiency data) is shown below:



As the table shows, MSU now holds only a very slight lead over the Boilers in expected wins, and MSU actually has one less game left to play. So, if Purdue can win at Nebraska this weekend, they will almost certainly pass MSU. Also, it is notable that for NCAA tournament purposes, it looks to me like it is going to be 8 teams only. The Top 6 look very safe right now and I would guess that Ohio State and Minnesota are going to sneak in as well. Illinois is making an interesting late charge, but their non-conference performance was just miserable, so they are much more behind they 8-ball on that one.

As for the Top of the Big Ten, the expected win trends are shown below:



As for the odds to win or tie for the conference title, here are the updated odds:



So, both MSU and Purdue have over a 50% chance to win or share the title, while Michigan's odds are much lower (still having road games at Maryland and MSU will do that to you). As for the other specific odds:

Odds of a solo MSU Title: 32%
Odds of a Purdue / MSU tie: 27%
Odds of a Purdue solo Title: 21%
Odds of a Purdue / Michigan tie: 14%
Odds of an MSU / UofM tie: 12%
Odds of a solo UofM tie: 9%
Odds of a 3-way tie: 6%

Once again, this does not explicitly take into account the loss of Nick Ward. So, it is reasonable to guess that MSU's actual odds are a bit lower.

For completeness, here are the trends for the rest of the Big Ten:




As for other comments, I will again be looking closely at the line for the upcoming Michigan game. Kenpom has the game as MSU +2, and my math suggests that it is closer to +1.5. I would expect the real line will be closer to +4 or +5, but this will again give us an indicator of the impact of losing Ward. Incidentally, the difference between +1.5 and +5 is the difference in having a ~45% chance of winning and a ~30% chance of winning, historically. That is pretty significant.

That said, both Michigan and Purdue have road games (@ Minnesota and @ Nebraska) before MSU travels to Ann Arbor. No matter how these games shake out, the landscape will look much, much different by Monday morning. In the worst case scenario (Purdue and Michigan win all games), Purdue becomes the prohibitive favorite (75%) and MSU's odds would drop to around 35%. However, in the best case (Purdue goes down in Lincoln, and Michigan losses both), MSU odds would rise to over 95%, which Michigan would essentially be toast (<3%). Cross your fingers, Spartan fans!

Enjoy!

Purdue's last minute win over IU last night was pretty big. As of this morning, Purdue has essentially pulled even with MSU in expected wins at ~15.75. I still have MSU with a very slight edge (0.15 wins) and in odds to win/share the title (64% vs. 55%). For what it is worth, Michigan is about a game back in expected wins with only a 27% chance at the title.

But, the math does not take into account the injury to Ward. In reality, Purdue is likely ahead of MSU right now. The Boiler have not been a great road team, but at the end of the day, they have 2 wins in OT and one win on the last possession last night. Championship teams are the ones who find the inches and win the close games.

Also, if MSU were to lose to Rutgers tonight, the result would be pretty catastrophic to MSU's odds. I project that the odds would drop to below 33%, while Purdue's odds would sky-rocket to over 70%. Based on this analysis, MSU has about a 97% chance to win tonight, so a win contributes almost nothing to the expected win total (as it essentially is already counted as a "W").

In MSU does get the win tonight, the pressure is back on Michigan and Purdue to keep pace. They both have another road game (@ Nebraska and @ Minnesota) before MSU heads to AA this weekend. While I still think both Purdue and Michigan are bound to stumble at least once more, you never know...

Well, it certainly has been a whirlwind in the last 24 hours for MSU basketball, and there has frankly been a lot of emotional responses from the majority of the fan base. But, my purpose to to provide an update on the numbers, and so here they are:



Basically, there is very little change in the Top 3 based on this weekend's performances. MSU, Purdue, and Michigan all won the games they were supposed to win, and thus all of their expected win totals creeped up just a bit. The most notable changes are farther down the list, where Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa have all clearly pulled away from the rest of the pack, but are also clearly not in the true contender category. After that, it is a question of whether any of the other teams can get to at least 10-10 in league play and if they can't, how far below 500 they can be and still get an NCAA bid. Minnesota and Ohio State both have decent cases, but there a chance that Illinois finishes ahead of them, which could be a problem. In any event, the trends for the Top Tier are shown here:



As for the odds to win or share the B1G title, those odds are shown here:



Again, these odds are not much different than they were mid-week. As for the odds for more specific events:

Odds of an MSU solo title: 39%
Odds of an MSU / Purdue tie: 23%
Odds of a Purdue solo title: 15%
Odds of an MSU / UofM tie: 14%
Odds of a Purdue / UofM tie: 12%
Odds of a UofM solo title: 10%
Odds of a 3-way tie: 6%

For completeness, here are the trends for the rest of the conference:




So, that's what the numbers say, but as well all know, these numbers do not know about the injury to Nick Ward. In reality, MSU's true odds of winning the Big Ten are likely lower. But, how much lower?

That is pretty difficult to estimate. From a purely analytical point of view, there are two things that I can think of trying. The first is to run some numbers and see how much of a dent in the Kenpom efficiency margin is needed to drop MSU's odds to win or share a title to equal that of Purdue. When I do this, the answer is about 5-6 points per 100 possessions, from the current level of 30.7 down to around 24.7 (which is good enough to be ranked #10, right between Purdue and Wisconsin). Without Nick Ward, is MSU still as good as Purdue and Wisconsin on a neutral floor? Maybe. I am honestly not sure and your answer this question only reveals if you are an optimist or a pessimist.

The second idea is to watch the Vegas line in the next few games closely. Kenpom will estimate the final score of all future games, and his projections are usually dead on with the Vegas Line. I would expect that the Vegas line will be lower than the Kenpom line. But, how much lower? In my experience, the Vegas line is by far the best predictor of actual game results. That line shift will give us the best idea of how much real value, on average, Nick Ward gives. Kenpom currently has MSU as an 18-point favorite over Rutgers. When the real line comes out, this will be a powerful indicator of how good Vegas's analytics think MSU is without Ward. I have no idea what methods they use, but I believe they know more than anyone else does. From a probability stand point, I will trust those numbers.

But, at the end of the day, it is about winning and losing. If MSU is going to win the Big Ten, most likely we will need to go 4-1. The game at Michigan is going to be tough (but not un-winnable...) and the rest of the games need to be wins if MSU has a shot, at least, not without a substantial amount of luck (which is seems like we are due for...) I would argue that MSU's starting line-up, with Xavier instead of Nick, is still quite formidable, and I think Kithier is going to be more than serviceable off the bench. Honestly, an injury to another wing player would have been more devastating. For example, if McQuaid or Cash went down, I don't think there are any answers. While losing Ward even in the short term is terrible, there is a bit of a band-aid available that we have seen, and it's not terrible.

The way that I always like to think about things is in terms of potential vs. probability. If MSU was completely healthy, the potential would be through the roof. If MSU had been healthy all year, we are probably staring at a 24-2 record, a #1 ranking, and the label of the favorite to win the tournament. Even without Josh Langford, the Kenpom data alone suggests that MSU is still a National Title Contender. But, that is with a healthy Nick Ward. Without Ward, MSU's odds go down, but honestly they don't go to zero, especially if Nick is back by March. There is still enough talent on the roster for MSU to have the potential to win it all. That statement has been true ever since Izzo's 3rd year.

But, when injuries pile up, MSU's probability of winning the Big Ten and making a deep run in March go down. The margin(s) for error have gone down significantly. That said, the question that needs to be asked is what has to go right in order for MSU to meet this potential? Well, the remaining players on the roster need to dig a bit deep and start peaking. A bad game from a player or two will be lethal going forward. The best version of Cash, McQuaid, Henry, Tillman, Goines, Ahrens, and Kithier is pretty damn good. We are going to need to see that more often than that going forward.

How likely is that? Well, it isn't that likely, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. Also, when it comes to March, you literally never know what might happen. If MSU can just hold on and secure a 2-seed or a 3-seed, with proper focus and a bit of luck (but not that much), they can certainly get to the 2nd weekend. Once you get to the 2nd weekend, Nick's hand might be better. It might even be 100%. If you get to the 2nd weekend, you also never know who you might face. Maybe you face a team like Gonzaga, but maybe you get a 10-seed instead, and if you win that game, maybe you get a 4-seed or a 5-seed instead of the 1-seed. Even if MSU does draw a 1-seed, a lot of weird things can happen in a 40-minute basketball game.

You never know what the future holds. I am not giving up on this team yet, and I don't think you should either. Go Green.

Spartans stay calm, beat Penn State, eye weekend sweep




Jim Comparoni • SpartanMag.com
@JimComparoni

EAST LANSING - Michigan State’s journey into national competitiveness, with an eye on some day regaining national prominence, hit a new milepost on Friday: The Spartans dealt with handling a big, diminishing lead.

Michigan State led No. 17-ranked Penn State 5-1 midway through the second period, but the Nittany Lions cut it to 5-3 prior to the second intermission.

The Spartans stopped Penn State’s momentum in the third period and secured a 5-3 victory before 5,185 at Munn Ice Arena.

The two teams will play again, Saturday at 7 p.m.

Having seen a four-goal lead quickly cut in half, late in the second period, one might have expected some tight throats in the Spartan dressing room prior to the third period.

Second-year head coach Danton Cole saw it as a teaching moment. He turned to senior defenseman Zach Osburn and fed him the right psychological formula.

“Our captains and leadership group do a pretty good job and just told Ozzie, ‘Hey tell the guys to take a deep breath. We won that period,’” Cole said.

Michigan State had out-scored Penn State 3-2 in the second period, but it might not have felt like it when the Nittany Lions scored at the 11:09 and 17:53 mark of the second period and applied heavy pressure in the final minute of the second, coming close to drawing within one.

But Osburn’s message resonated with his young teammates. Cole took it from there.

“I told them, ‘Hey, we won the first period, we won the second period, that’s pretty good, let’s take care of the third,” Cole said. “I told them the things that we did that worked, let’s go back and do them.

“It was pretty calm in there. (Assistant coach) Joe (Exter) talked about the penalty kill. More than that, I wanted to stay physical and keep our speed on the way back in transition and get the puck on the other side of their D.”

Penn State out-shot Michigan State 19-6 in the third period, but the Spartans kept Grade A chances to a minimum, scaled back its forecheck and preserved a big win.

(Click on the photos below to watch key goals from Friday's game).

WHAT IT MEANS



With three games remaining in the regular season, Michigan State jumped past Penn State, for now, into fifth place in the Big Ten. The top four in the Big Ten earn home ice for the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, March 8-10.

However, Minnesota upset first-place, No. 3-ranked Ohio State, 4-3.

Notre Dame, which went into Friday in third place, fell to fourth in being upset by last-place Wisconsin, 2-1.

Notre Dame and Penn State each have five Big Ten games remaining, whereas Michigan State has three.

Michigan State (7-10-4 in the Big Ten and 11-15-5 overall) could end up in last place in the Big Ten. Or, with a win on Saturday and a Gophers loss at Ohio State, the Spartans could be tied with Michigan and Minnesota for second place by Saturday night. Things are incredibly tight between second place and seventh place in the league.

“We’ll take that win and put it in the bank and we’ve got a chance to do something really good and win a game tomorrow,” Cole said.

Penn State fell to 8-10-1 in the Big Ten and 16-11-2 overall.

Michigan State has won two of its three games against Penn State this year and will try to make it three of four on Saturday.

THE REST OF IT




Five different Spartans scored on Friday as Michigan State enjoyed more balanced scoring than has been the case most of the season.

* Fourth-line sophomore winger Austin Kamer (Grand Rapids) had a goal and an assist.

* Junior center Patrick Khodernko (Walnut Creek, Calif) gave Michigan State a 1-0 lead on a 5-on-3 power play in the first period. It was his 17th goal of the season.

* Sophomore defenseman Tommy Miller (West Bloomfield), freshman forward Adam Goodsir(Okemos, Mich.) and senior forward Brennan Sanford (East Lansing) also scored for Michigan State.

For Miller, Goodsir and Kamer, it was each player’s second goal of the season. Kamer has two goals in the last three games.

It was Sanford’s fourth goal.

* Junior goaltender John Lethemon made a career-high 44 saves, getting his first start since losing at Notre Dame, 6-3, six games ago on Jan. 25.

“It was good to get Lethemon in,” Cole said. “He had a nice game for us.”

* Penn State averages 4.6 goals per game on the year, so Michigan State held the high-scoring Nittany Lions under their average. But Penn State out-shot Michigan State 47-26.

* Cole was pleased to get some work out of his fourth line in the first two periods, including goals from Goodsir and Kamer. However the fourth line played very little in the third period as Cole shortened his bench in order to stem Penn State’s momentum.

Penn State goes four deep with its lines with no problem.

“The way the game is played and the way Penn State plays, you’re sprinting up and sprinting back,” Cole said. “There’s a lot of work there. You just have so much more energy (when you can play four lines).”

“Going into Saturday night, it was nice (to get some work out of the fourth line). Not only did they give us some ice time, but Goody’s line got a goal for us and that was great.”

* Junior captain Sam Saliba won three face-offs in the final minute as Michigan State protected the two-goal lead. Saliba is a second-line center.

Cole put Saliba on the ice with first-line winger and Hobey Baker candidate Taro Hirose, along with second-line right wing Cody Milan, a senior. They played the final :40 seconds as Penn State pulled its goalie and applied pressure. Saliba’s face-off wins helped slow Penn State’s late-game charge.

Saliba was 15-4 on face-offs for the night, the best for either team.

QUOTING COLE:




* “We knew Penn State would put a lot of pressure on. I thought as the game went on we handled it a little better and got away from trying to be cute going from A to B and just got some pucks on the other side of them and all of the sudden it was 5-1. It was kind of a fun little streak there for awhile. I thought the guys did a good job.”

On allowing two power play goals in four opportunities.

* “Give them credit, they threw pucks at the net. We were a little off in a lot of the stuff we did. I didn’t think our rotation was good out top at all. Our forwards were like they were in the movie ‘Hoosiers,’ running the picket fence and they got caught watching the paint dry.

“We have to be a little bit quicker. What happens is if you get twisted out top, then the defensemen can’t just turn and pick guys up around the net. They have to try to block shots, plus cover the guy, and you can’t do that.

“We’ll be better (on the penalty kill) tomorrow. The first one was text book. I don’t think they even got a shot on their first power play. Then after that, it was a little bit of a Chinese firedrill.”

A have a few more thoughts on the general state of State after last nights huge win:

1) MSU is now up to #7 in the NET (the RPI replacement metric) although it is not super clear if this includes last night's win (I actually don't think that it does...). The odds to hold onto a 2-seed increased dramatically last night, as well as the odds to play in Columbus on the first weekend of the Tournament.

2) MSU now has 10 Quadrant 1 wins, passing Kansas (9) as the most in the country

3) MSU also has 7 true road wins, which ties UNC and Virginia with the most of the High Majors. Based on all this, I think that a 1-seed is still potentially in play, even if MSU drops the game in Ann Arbor. But, other factors would need to align just right for this to happen

As for other game stuff:

4) With MSU's remaining schedule, I think Izzo can be selective in the size of the rotation to continue to save fuel, as needed. The next two games are at home and Izzo would be smart to play 9-10 guys, especially in the first halves. Then, at Michigan, I think you go full bore with your Top 7 and try to steal the win. The teams gets a week off after that. I think you can then play the game at Indiana by ear, expand the rotation vs. Nebraska, then go full bore on Senior night and try to put a big hole in the Wolverines. Think Mateen's Senior Day. Feel free to play 10 guys in the BTT, as no one cares about that. Then, with the longer timeouts in the Tournament, I think the fuel can stretch... hopefully.

5) Did anyone else think that Izzo's appeal to the refs to review the "hook and hold" call was more about getting free rest for his players than about the call itself? It worked like a charm...

6) I cannot believe McQuaid got a flagrant for tugging a jersey from behind. Is it my imagination, or have there been several calls this year where MSU had a clear lane to the hoop and an opposing player just grabbed the MSU player with no play on the ball? Irritating at the least.

You can choose to believe this or not, but my gut feelings have been frighteningly accurate over the past few weeks. Once MSU cleared the game at Purdue, I breathed a sigh of relief that MSU cleared the toughest gauntlet on the schedule, reasonably unscathed. But, as the Indiana game approached, I got more and more nervous about it. The thought that kept coming into my head was that even if MSU's schedule was getting lighter on paper, MSU still had to win those games. I knew that losing a game where you have a ~95% chance of victory would be a major hit. And... it was. Then, I was even more nervous about the game at Illinois, and that game went pretty much exactly how I feared that it might.

But, after the Minnesota win for some reason I just felt better. Coming into last night's huge, huge, huge game, I felt oddly confident. I just had this gut feeling that MSU was going to win. Furthermore, I was also very confident that Purdue was going to lose at Maryland. The crazy thing is, I even had this weird feeling that Michigan might just choke on the road in (un)Happy Valley.

I must admit that as an MSU fan, I can think of very few recent occasions where all of my positive gut feelings came to fruition all in the span of a few hours. For me, it was even more compressed as I TiVo'ed the game and watched it on about a 2-hour tape delay. So, I found out the results of all three games in about a 15 minute span.

Weird.

Anyway, as well all know, last night's action was a real game changer. How much so? Well, here is the updated B1G win matrix:



The trend looks like this:



The script has officially flipped again with MSU now holding a ~half game lead over Purdue in expected wins and a slightly larger than 1 game lead over Michigan. I now give MSU a 60% chance to finish at 16-4 or better and a 90% chance to get to at least 15-5.

As for the odds for a Big Ten title (won or shared)



Again, MSU is back in the catbird seat as the favorite. As for the other relevant odds:

Odds of an MSU solo Title: 38%
Odds of an MSU / Purdue tie: 21%
Odds of a Purdue solo Title: 18%
Odds of a MSU / UofM tie: 12%
Odds of a UofM / Purdue tie: 10%
Odds of a UofM solo Title: 10%

Going forward, the task at hand for MSU is clear. The Spartans have two very winnable home games spread out over the next 7 days. Then, there is the showdown in Ann Arbor, which is very clearly the toughest game left on the schedule. After that, MSU gets a full week off before the final road game at Indiana, and then the season closes with MSU getting Nebraska and then Michigan in Breslin. So, MSU gets four of the last six at home, only has to leave the state once, gets a bye along the way, and does not have any nasty 2-day turn-around, or anything like that. You have to like that.

But, the big question is Purdue. Even if MSU plays well down the stretch, a loss in Ann Arbor still seems more likely than not. Purdue could still run the table and win the league by a game. The math says there is only a 12% chance that the Boilers can win out, but you have to wonder. Just to try to visualize thing, I plotted the Kenpom expected win% for all of MSU's and Purdue's remaining games. That is shown here, with the games sorted from most likely to least likely to win from left to right.



So, the obvious concern is that MSU will not be favored in Ann Arbor, while Purdue will be the favorite in all of their remaining games. But, Kenpom does suggest that Purdue has 4 of the 6 toughest games remaining between the two teams, which is likely why the math works out the way that it does. On the other hand, Purdue's toughest 2 remaining games are at Nebraska and at Indiana. Both of those teams seem to be fading fast, and their Kenpom numbers are likely being bolstered by their performances earlier in the year. The same could be said for the games at Minnesota and Northwestern. Purdue will likely need to drop one of those games for MSU to share the title. Will that happen? Honestly, I think the answer to that question is a bit circular. If Purdue really is good enough to be a champion, they will run the table. If they are not, they won't. How is that for analysis? But, the math is still the math, and that still suggests that the Boilers will not run the table.

Finally, there is Michigan. I have been saying for a while now that I essentially expect them to limp down the stretch. Their final 6 games include 2 games each with MSU and Maryland, a trip to Minneapolis and a home game with the Huskers. The question for me is not whether or not UofM can stay in the race, it is whether or not they can stay above 500 in their remaining games. Frankly, I am curious if they will even be over 500 for the rest of the season, including the post-season. Maybe I will be proved wrong, but my gut says they are under 500 from here out... and my gut has been pretty accurate lately.

For completeness, here are the expected win trends for the rest of the conference:




Sorry for the long-winded entry today, but I have a lot on my mind. Enjoy!

By popular demand, here is the quick update:

Odds to win or share the Big Ten:
MSU: 67%
Purdue: 44%
Michigan: 26%
Maryland: 5%

MSU now has about a half game lead on Purdue and slightly over a full game lead on Michigan in expected wins (15.7 vs. 15.3 vs. 14.6)

MSU solo title odds: 37%
MSU/Purdue tie odds: 22%

I will have the full update tomorrow, as usual..

As I mentioned on Sunday morning, there was little movement overall since the last update, as the weekend games went essentially according to chalk. Here is the updated win matrix:



Since both Purdue and Michigan avoided an a mild upset, they are now both more likely to finish at or above 16 wins. MSU's expected wins are still just above 15, but there is less than a game separation between the 3 teams. In graphical form, the trend for the top of the Big Ten is shown here:



Maryland's road win at Nebraska helped to boost their expected win total, but the other 4 teams just edged up slightly. As for the odds to win/tie for the regular season title:



Again, not a big change. Purdue still has the edge. As for the other relevant stats:

Odds of a solo Purdue title: 32%
Odds of a solo UofM title: 23%
Odds UofM / Purdue tie: 18%
Odds of an MSU / Purdue tie: 13%
Odds of an MSU solo title: 12%
Odds of an MSU / UofM tie: 10%

But, these numbers WILL change a lot on Tuesday night, as MSU visits Wisconsin and Purdue goes to Maryland. Michigan is on the road at Penn State as well, and you never know... But, if we assume that the Wolverines do win, there are still 4 possible outcomes of the other two big games. I ran a couple of "what-if" scenarios, and here is approximately how the percentages to win the Big Ten will shift depending on those outcomes. This does not take into account the change in the Kenpom data as a result of these games, but these numbers should be close:



In the best case for MSU, (an MSU win and a Purdue loss), the Spartans are right back in the mix with a 50-50 shot to win a share of the title. If Purdue wins in College Park, however, their odds go up to 70%+ and realistically they just about have at least a share of the title locked up. If both MSU and Purdue lose, this is obviously the best case for Michigan, although their odds would only rise to about 60%. If anything, this is simply an indication of the level of challenge that they have down the stretch. Also of note is that is MSU beats Wisconsin, the Badgers are basically out.

I think it is safe to say that Tuesday night is the single biggest date on the Big Ten calendar this year to date.

For completeness, here are the other two expected win trend charts for the rest of the conference:




Enjoy!

The action yesterday did not move the needle much for any of the contenders. As for the Top 6:

Purdue: 15.87 expected wins
Michigan: 15.60
Michigan St.: 15.11
Wisconsin: 13.88
Maryland: 12.84
Iowa: 11.76

As for odds to win or share:

Purdue: 57.8%
Michigan: 47.2%
Michigan St.: 29.7%
Wisconsin: 5.7%

Other odds:

MSU/UofM tie: 9.0%
MSU solo: 10.6%
UofM solo: 23.4%
Purdue solo: 31.0%
MSU / Purdue tie: 13.7%
UofM / Purdue tie: 18.2%

But, everything is going to change in a major way on Tuesday night as MSU visits Wisconsin and Purdue goes to Maryland. That is when the final picture will start to come into focus.

I will do a more detailed update likely on Monday morning.

I heard some rumblings here and in other corners of the internet concerning the idea that MSU's losses to Indiana and Illinois are somewhat unprecedented. Basically, the idea that good MSU teams don't loose these types of games. I decided to try to fact check this.

First of all, MSU was roughly a 15-point favorite vs. IU and a 10-point favorite at Illinois. My math says that this corresponds historical victory odds of 93% and 83% respectively. The odds of losing both of those games is less than 2%. From a certain point of view, that is correct. There was only a 2% chance of that happening. However, I think that it is also valuable to consider some perspective.

First, I think that it is a bit of a trap to worry too much about these games being back-to-back as any sort of indicator. I don't really want to get into a deep discussion of dependent vs. independent probability, but suffice it to say that I think it is more reasonable to look at things from the viewpoint of a much larger sample size, such as the entire season or even multiple seasons.

So, what I did was to look back at the number of times MSU has been upset over the past several years when they were favored by more than, say, 9 points. I have a database that I pulled off the internet of all of the spreads and results for games back to 2004. I know that it is not 100% complete, especially with the post-season, but I think that the regular season is intact. I found several notable upsets in just the past few years. For example:

2009: MSU lost to both Northwestern (+11.5) and Penn State (+12) in a span of 4 games
2014: MSU lost to UNC (+9.5), Illinois (+12.5), and Nebraska (+14)
2015: MSU lost to Texas Southern (+24.5) which is tied for second with the biggest upset in the file
2016: MSU lost to Iowa (+9.5), Nebraska (+14.5), and (of course) Middle Tenn St. (+16.5)

With the exception of the Middle Tenn St. game, every single one of those upsets happened at Breslin. So, the fact that MSU lost at home to IU is not that unusual. Furthermore, you may notice that I specifically highlighted years when MSU had a pretty good team. MSU made the Final Four or at least the Regional Final in 3 of those 4 years, and in 2016, MSU was ranked #1 for several weeks.

The other thing that I wanted to do was to see if this rate of upsets over this time period was "normal" or not. So, I crunched the numbers for all 14 Big Ten teams. It is pretty easy to select different time frames and exact point spreads to set as the cut-off and these change the numbers quite a bit. But, as an example, here is a plot for the Top 9 Big Ten teams showing the upset rate when the spread is at least 10 points, since 2009:



As you can see, the rate varies from about 4% to over 10% depending on the team. MSU is right there with Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan. The analysis is pretty sensitive (for example, if I broaden the parameters to a spread of at least 9 points, Purdue shoots up to 10%) but it is representative.

So, to me, the key takeaways are that:

-Good MSU teams have suffered "big" upsets before, especially in Big Ten play at home.
-Other Big Ten teams suffer "big" upsets at a very similar rate.

The other point that I will make is that in both the Indiana and Illinois games, there were some stats in the game that were extreme outliers. In the IU game, it was MSU's FT shooting. My math suggests that this was a full 3 standard deviations any from the norm. Similarly, in the Illinois game, it was MSU's turnover rate, which was about 2.5 standard deviations away from the norm. It is not likely that this type of trend will continue.

Now, this is all just math. Our eyes are telling us that this MSU team is in a funk. But, to say that "this year is different" I don't think is accurate. That does not mean that the problems on this team are not real. But, the success that this team had in January was real as well. What I do think is real is that MSU just flat out was not that lucky over the past 2 games. But, it is also true that chance favors the prepared mind.

Anyway, just some math-based perspective on a Friday afternoon. Enjoy!

Oh what a difference 12 days came make. On January 24th, I projected that MSU had a ~95% chance to win or share the Big Ten Title. After last nights debacle, things are looking... less good. But, perhaps not as bad as you might think. Here is the updated win matrix:



As for the trend in expected wins, here is what that looks like for the top tier of the B1G:



As expected, MSU has now dipped to 3rd place in expected wins, behind Purdue and Michigan. But, all three teams are within about a half game of each other, and Kenpom projects all three teams to finish at 15-5. But, once again, this is based on the projection that all three teams play at their "average" level and probabilities hold. If the past two weeks have taught us anything, it is that events with a >80% probability are not sure things, and that basketball games played by 18-22 years are not truly "independent probability events." Things like momentum, injuries, fresh legs, and mental funks all matter and cannot be quantified. Kenpom still has MSU ranked #4 nationally, but they are certainly not playing at that level right now. If MSU does not turn things around quickly, they could sink to 4th or even 5th place.

But, as for today's snapshot of the odds to win the title:



Odds of a Purdue solo title: 26%
Odds of a Michigan solo title: 24%
Odds of a UofM / Purdue tie: 15%
Odds of an MSU solo title: 13%

Basically, on paper, it is still a 3-team race with the Badgers hanging around. But, MSU is not out of it. I still think that a pretty big part of the problem in the last few games has been focus and effort. These things should be correctable, and the team only needs to leave the state of Michigan once in the next month. I would rather see this team go through a funk now than in the first week of March. There is still time to salvage things.

Based on the championship matrix above, the Big Ten Champ is most likely going to finish at 16-4 or maybe 17-3. So, the margin of error is close to zero. The next major milestone is the game at Wisconsin in a week. If MSU can find a way to beat Minnesota and then the Badgers, we can still talk about a potential regular season title. If not, it's likely game over.

As for the other potential challengers, the Badgers have a very interesting schedule coming up: at Minnesota (tonight), at Michigan, and vs. MSU. That is a pretty tough gauntlet with MSU at the end. If Wisconsin can win those three, their remaining schedule is very reasonable and they are a legit contender. From an MSU point of view, getting the Badgers at the end of that gauntlet is about a close to a good draw as MSU has had in a while. The Green and White need to take advantage.

As for Purdue, they have a very manageable schedule remaining, with the next major challenge coming next Tuesday night at Maryland. If the Boilers can win that one, they are firmly in the driver's seat. But, they do close with 4 of the last 6 on the road, including at Indiana, Minnesota, and Nebraska. It is not hard to imagine at least 2 more losses from them.

Finally, concerning the Wolverines, they escaped New Jersey last night with a win, but their last 8 games all look potentially tricky. They still play both MSU and Maryland twice, Wisconsin once and they have to go Minnesota, Nebraska, and Penn State. I think that they are going to accumulate several more losses. Sure, they are 21-2 right now, but a quick look at their schedule will show you that they have exactly one win over a Big Ten team projected to finish over 500 in conference play, and that was Purdue on December 1st. IF, MSU can get their crap together, I see no reason why MSU can't still at least get the split with the Wolverines and finish ahead of them in the standings.

Bottom line is that there is still a lot of basketball to be played and a lot can change in a week or two.

For completeness, here at the expected win trends for the rest of the conference





Chins up, Spartan fans, and enjoy.