I should probably preface this by saying that I am no where near as plugged into the coaching search as a lot of people here. I even made the joke to some of our staff here during the MSU basketball media event that I don’t know how to analyze the search using a spreadsheet, so I don’t really have anything to offer.
That said, after thinking about the situation, I have a guess as to how this will play out.
Based on what @DavidHarns has been telling us all along, I think that it is pretty clear that this is a faction of people in the current administration who want no part of Urban Meyer based on the long list of skeletons in his closet. There seems to be a set of people outside of the administration (but with money) who are interested in Meyer.
I do honestly see the appeal of “going rogue” and “raising the flag,” but I also have my doubts that Meyer would step into the job and be successful at MSU. I do think that the landscape has changed. For his reason, the risk/reward calculation for me tilts heavily away from Meyer. Your mileage may vary.
There does appear to be a scenario where the donors and some faction of the Board of Trustees (or other MSU officials) stage a sort of coup in order to get Meyer hired. I have a really hard time believing that will happen. As I said before, the odds of MSU beating Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State this year are likely much higher (like 1-5% range, at best).
What occurred to me this week is that the problem is that in many people’s minds, Meyer is being compared to a vacuum. There are no candidates to compare him to. Haller (or other decision-makers) will soon start to put together a list of real candidates who they will start to vet/interview through both official and unofficial channels. I would hope the early stages of this process are already underway.
Once the actual decisions makers have a list of real alternative candidates, I think that the Meyer buzz will die down. When the resumes are compared, the risk and reward will be clearer. I am confident that MSU will get a very solid list of candidates. They likely won’t have National Titles on their resume, but that is not the only decision criterion.
In this eventuality, it will be necessary to get the donors on board. I think that MSU has a very easy path to solve this problem. His name is Tom Izzo.
Izzo is going to at least be used as a sounding board in this hire. He is not going to be a decision maker, but he will be consulted, and his opinion does have weight. He basically told us this during the media event. I could be wrong, but I have a hard time believing that Izzo would support Meyer (for the same reasons Haller likely does not support him).
If Izzo is on board, I think that the rest is easy. Let’s say that there is a certain billionaire that used to play basketball under Izzo. If his old coach were to call him up and say, “I talked to Alan, and we agree that MSU needs to make an offer to Coach X. I believe that he is the right choice for reasons A, B, and C. We need your support. MSU needs your support.”
I have a hard time believing that ANY donor is going to argue with that. Izzo can bring everybody back together in a united front.
Maybe I am wrong, but that is my gut feeling as to how this is going to go down.
That said, after thinking about the situation, I have a guess as to how this will play out.
Based on what @DavidHarns has been telling us all along, I think that it is pretty clear that this is a faction of people in the current administration who want no part of Urban Meyer based on the long list of skeletons in his closet. There seems to be a set of people outside of the administration (but with money) who are interested in Meyer.
I do honestly see the appeal of “going rogue” and “raising the flag,” but I also have my doubts that Meyer would step into the job and be successful at MSU. I do think that the landscape has changed. For his reason, the risk/reward calculation for me tilts heavily away from Meyer. Your mileage may vary.
There does appear to be a scenario where the donors and some faction of the Board of Trustees (or other MSU officials) stage a sort of coup in order to get Meyer hired. I have a really hard time believing that will happen. As I said before, the odds of MSU beating Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State this year are likely much higher (like 1-5% range, at best).
What occurred to me this week is that the problem is that in many people’s minds, Meyer is being compared to a vacuum. There are no candidates to compare him to. Haller (or other decision-makers) will soon start to put together a list of real candidates who they will start to vet/interview through both official and unofficial channels. I would hope the early stages of this process are already underway.
Once the actual decisions makers have a list of real alternative candidates, I think that the Meyer buzz will die down. When the resumes are compared, the risk and reward will be clearer. I am confident that MSU will get a very solid list of candidates. They likely won’t have National Titles on their resume, but that is not the only decision criterion.
In this eventuality, it will be necessary to get the donors on board. I think that MSU has a very easy path to solve this problem. His name is Tom Izzo.
Izzo is going to at least be used as a sounding board in this hire. He is not going to be a decision maker, but he will be consulted, and his opinion does have weight. He basically told us this during the media event. I could be wrong, but I have a hard time believing that Izzo would support Meyer (for the same reasons Haller likely does not support him).
If Izzo is on board, I think that the rest is easy. Let’s say that there is a certain billionaire that used to play basketball under Izzo. If his old coach were to call him up and say, “I talked to Alan, and we agree that MSU needs to make an offer to Coach X. I believe that he is the right choice for reasons A, B, and C. We need your support. MSU needs your support.”
I have a hard time believing that ANY donor is going to argue with that. Izzo can bring everybody back together in a united front.
Maybe I am wrong, but that is my gut feeling as to how this is going to go down.
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