It should come as no surprise that I am no fan of the University of Michigan. When I am acting in an official capacity as a journalist, I do my best to treat them fairly (as I do to every team.) But between you and me I cheer for them to lose in every athletic contest in which they participate. It is simply better for the state, the conference, college sports, and for the greater Universe as a whole if the Wolverines where to never win again in any sport. That is just a universal truth as I see it. The only difference between me and other "journalists" is that I freely admit my biases.
That said, you can perhaps take what I am about to say with a grain of salt. But hear me out. I believe that the Wolverines might be headed for a bad if not really bad skid.
Michigan clearly had a good start to the season, especially in Big Ten play. The wins at Wisconsin and at UCLA are two really good wins. They started out 5-0 in conference play and for a while they had the best odds to win the conference. They remain in the top 20 of Kenpom and generally have strong metrics. However, a closer look at their schedule and the recent trends suggest that trouble might be brewing in Ann Arbor.
First of all, their three losses in the non-conference are not good. Wake Forest, Arkansas, and Oklahoma are all outside of the KenPom top 40. All three losses are outside of the NET "quad one." The only other Big Ten teams with more than two loses outside of Q1 are Minnesota and Washington. Maybe that start is not as impressive as some thought.
Second, I think that there is some evidence that their KenPom efficiency is a bit inflated due to some big margins of victory in the non-conference. Blowing out Cleveland State and Western Kentucky by 40+ points is nice, but it is also largely irrelevant.
Most importantly, the performance over the past four Big Ten games has been shaky, at best. First, they went to Minnesota and lost in overtime. Yes, the Gophers hit a very lucky shot to win the game, but Minnesota largely controlled the game in the final four minutes of regulation and in overtime. Then, they needed overtime to beat Northwestern at home in a game that was extremely competitive throughout. They went to Purdue and got absolutely boat-raced. Last night, they needed a late 9-0 run in the final two minutes to eke out a win over Penn State at home.
Those are four poor performances in a row. They failed to cover in all four games. While no one really expected a win in West Lafayette, the other three games rate as the No. 15, No. 16, and No. 17 hardest games on their entire conference schedule. They very easily could have (if not should have) lost all three games. It is easy to understand a bad game here or there, but four games is an obvious trend and for the Wolverines it is decisively negative.
The biggest concern for the Maize and Blue is their remaining schedule. Let look at the next seven games:
at Rutgers
Oregon
at Indiana
Purdue
at Ohio State
Michigan State
at Nebraska
On paper, Michigan looks like they will be favored (narrowly) in perhaps six of those game, but the expected win total (assuming they play at the season-averaged level of performance) is just 4.2 wins. But the problem is that all seven of those games are tougher than the three games "easy" games that they lost or almost lost. At the current, actual level of performance, how many of those games look like a win? One? Maybe two?
The road games are all against teams who are not conference contenders, but they are dangerous at home. Indiana is a dumpster fire, but I am sure that they will be motivated to play well for next year's coach (kidding!... maybe). The other three road games are no cakewalk. Then there are three home games against teams currently projected as at least No. 4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan just struggled to beat Northwestern and Penn State at home. I see no reason to be confident in a win in any of those games. I think a record of 2-5 in that stretch is very possible.
The Wolverines then have a home game against Rutgers. That is very likely a win.
But then Michigan closes with:
Illinois
Maryland
at Michigan State
Michigan might be favored in the two home games, but the expected win total is 1.6. If they continue to struggle, maybe they win one of those games.
If I add up those wins, I get a final record of around 11-9 in Big Ten play and 19-12 overall. That should be enough to get an NCAA Tournament bid, but they could be a lot closer to the bubble than anyone is thinking right now. Bracket Matrix has then as a No. 5 seed. Unless they start playing better right now, that seems very optimistic.
Is my record prediction overly pessimistic? Maybe. It is certainly possible that Michigan breaks out of their funk and that they finish strong. But four games in a row is maybe more than just a bad trend. It is just as likely (if not more likely) that they played a bit over their heads early in the season and that the grind and increased game film to scout is catching up to them. They seem to be a flawed team and those flaws are becoming more obvious every game.
They have the rest of the week off to work on themselves a bit. Perhaps they come out looking like a new team. But as for now, I will believe that when I see it.
That said, you can perhaps take what I am about to say with a grain of salt. But hear me out. I believe that the Wolverines might be headed for a bad if not really bad skid.
Michigan clearly had a good start to the season, especially in Big Ten play. The wins at Wisconsin and at UCLA are two really good wins. They started out 5-0 in conference play and for a while they had the best odds to win the conference. They remain in the top 20 of Kenpom and generally have strong metrics. However, a closer look at their schedule and the recent trends suggest that trouble might be brewing in Ann Arbor.
First of all, their three losses in the non-conference are not good. Wake Forest, Arkansas, and Oklahoma are all outside of the KenPom top 40. All three losses are outside of the NET "quad one." The only other Big Ten teams with more than two loses outside of Q1 are Minnesota and Washington. Maybe that start is not as impressive as some thought.
Second, I think that there is some evidence that their KenPom efficiency is a bit inflated due to some big margins of victory in the non-conference. Blowing out Cleveland State and Western Kentucky by 40+ points is nice, but it is also largely irrelevant.
Most importantly, the performance over the past four Big Ten games has been shaky, at best. First, they went to Minnesota and lost in overtime. Yes, the Gophers hit a very lucky shot to win the game, but Minnesota largely controlled the game in the final four minutes of regulation and in overtime. Then, they needed overtime to beat Northwestern at home in a game that was extremely competitive throughout. They went to Purdue and got absolutely boat-raced. Last night, they needed a late 9-0 run in the final two minutes to eke out a win over Penn State at home.
Those are four poor performances in a row. They failed to cover in all four games. While no one really expected a win in West Lafayette, the other three games rate as the No. 15, No. 16, and No. 17 hardest games on their entire conference schedule. They very easily could have (if not should have) lost all three games. It is easy to understand a bad game here or there, but four games is an obvious trend and for the Wolverines it is decisively negative.
The biggest concern for the Maize and Blue is their remaining schedule. Let look at the next seven games:
at Rutgers
Oregon
at Indiana
Purdue
at Ohio State
Michigan State
at Nebraska
On paper, Michigan looks like they will be favored (narrowly) in perhaps six of those game, but the expected win total (assuming they play at the season-averaged level of performance) is just 4.2 wins. But the problem is that all seven of those games are tougher than the three games "easy" games that they lost or almost lost. At the current, actual level of performance, how many of those games look like a win? One? Maybe two?
The road games are all against teams who are not conference contenders, but they are dangerous at home. Indiana is a dumpster fire, but I am sure that they will be motivated to play well for next year's coach (kidding!... maybe). The other three road games are no cakewalk. Then there are three home games against teams currently projected as at least No. 4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan just struggled to beat Northwestern and Penn State at home. I see no reason to be confident in a win in any of those games. I think a record of 2-5 in that stretch is very possible.
The Wolverines then have a home game against Rutgers. That is very likely a win.
But then Michigan closes with:
Illinois
Maryland
at Michigan State
Michigan might be favored in the two home games, but the expected win total is 1.6. If they continue to struggle, maybe they win one of those games.
If I add up those wins, I get a final record of around 11-9 in Big Ten play and 19-12 overall. That should be enough to get an NCAA Tournament bid, but they could be a lot closer to the bubble than anyone is thinking right now. Bracket Matrix has then as a No. 5 seed. Unless they start playing better right now, that seems very optimistic.
Is my record prediction overly pessimistic? Maybe. It is certainly possible that Michigan breaks out of their funk and that they finish strong. But four games in a row is maybe more than just a bad trend. It is just as likely (if not more likely) that they played a bit over their heads early in the season and that the grind and increased game film to scout is catching up to them. They seem to be a flawed team and those flaws are becoming more obvious every game.
They have the rest of the week off to work on themselves a bit. Perhaps they come out looking like a new team. But as for now, I will believe that when I see it.
