The Pre-Snap Read: Michigan State vs Maryland
By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com
East Lansing, Mich. - Just in time for the cold/rainy season, the Spartans get a nice little test from the No. 3 passing attack in the Big Ten, a week after flunking an exam in pass defense at Purdue.
Here comes rising hotshot QB Taulia Tagovailoa and a Maryland offense that is averaging 316 yards passing per game.
So how good is Maryland? How bad is Michigan State? What’s going wrong with the Spartans? Can it be fixed? How difficult of a test is this game.
You know how bad Michigan State needs this win, in order to make the charm of the first eight wins stand up, and position this team to play for a ton next week at Ohio State.
Whether or not this team can compete with Ohio State remains to be seen, and is probably doubtful. But the Spartans need to get out of this weekend at 9-1, keep hope alive and get back to celebrating what had become a nice little fall football holiday for Spartan fans.
But there’s much work to do.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
If this game were played at a cozy neutral site like Lucas Oil Stadium, Michigan State would have trouble holding Maryland under 320 yards passing and under 28 points. But it’s going to be in cold temperatures, possibly some wet stuff, out on Spartan Stadium’s lawn. More on that in a moment.
Michigan State can’t give up any free ones like last week and see those pass defense numbers balloon over 400 yards and beyond 30 points. Meanwhile, Michigan State can’t have slippage in TE blocking in the run game and blow drives with three-and-outs like last week.
Fail to hold serve on offense with some errors in run blocking, and give up free ones in pass defense, and you’ll lose in this conference. You’ll lose to Purdue. You’ll lose to Maryland.
Michigan State needs to end those quality control errors from last week. Michigan State has been solid in most of these areas all year, including pass defense, even while giving up fat numbers, their yards allowed per pass attempt were usually palatable. But not last week. All numbers were shot last week.
The margin for error for Michigan State isn’t quite as slim as it was last week. I think Purdue is better than Maryland. But the margin is still slim, and Michigan State had better be a sharper machine this week than last week, or there will be a repeat of despair.
According to AccuWeather, I’m seeing a forecast of 41 degrees at kickoff with a 51 pct chance of a rain/snow wintry mix. Down to about 37 degrees in the fourth quarter with a decreasing chance of wet stuff.
Cold, wet, wintry weather should favor Michigan State. Michigan State has the better run defense and run offense. Michigan State is also more accustomed to playing on grass, obviously. Michigan State is more equipped for all-weather football than the Terps.
With poor weather, red zone defense (and offense) will become more important because settling for field goals will be more of a negative than usual, due to field goal accuracy likely to decline.
Force a team to attempt field goals when they get in the red zone, and you take a big step toward victory. Michigan State made that happen against Michigan and Indiana, and they did it again in the second half last week, but not so much in the first half (missed sack on third down for a TD, blew a coverage for a TD on another occasion, and blew a run gap assignment by Jalen Hunt on a run play down to the 1-yard line on another occasion).
Can’t have that slippage in quality control this week.
Maryland is a good test. In some ways the Terps are a slightly lesser version of Purdue than Purdue (but with a different but equally impressive, rising star at QB). Different STYLES of pass game offense, but somewhat equally effective in ball control and the occasional deep shots. Neither team runs the ball well. Maryland has more mobility at the QB position.
If Michigan State can’t fix the problems of last week, they will lose again. Can Michigan State fix those loose screws and get it done at home? If not, they are staring a 4-game losing streak and 8-4 regular season record. That would suck.
As for Tagovailoa, he has impressive numbers and impressive highlight reel plays. Can make all the throws, and do it on the run. He’s a rising star.
If he were playing at Nebraska, the Huskers would be in the Top 25 right now, maybe higher. If he were playing at Wisconsin, the Badgers would only have two losses, maybe one, and would be in the Top 20, maybe higher. If he were the QB at Iowa, Iowa would still be in the Top 10.
He ranks seventh in the country and leads the Big Ten with a 71.1-percent completion percentage.
He ranks in the Top 25 in the country in passing touchdowns (15) and passing yards per game (280.7). He has four 300-yard games in 11 starts as a Terp, already tied for the third-most in program history
He passed for more than 300 yards against West Virginia (26-36 for 332), Illinois (32 of 43 for 350), Kent State (31 of 41 for 384), Indiana (26 of 40 for 419) and Penn State (41 of 57 for 371).
Iowa held him to 16 of 29 for 157 with five INTs.
Minnesota held him to 26 of 40 for 189.
He was 28 of 39 with for 279 with 2 TDs and 2 INTs in a blowout loss at Ohio State.
He’s good, and getting better.
One question I have going into this game is whether he can produce in cold weather.
It’s his second year at Maryland. He spent one year at the University of Alabama.
He grew up in Hawaii and played his senior year in high school in Alabama.
How much cold weather quarterbacking has he done?
Last year, he didn’t have any cold weather games. He was 17 of 36 (47 percent) for 241 yards with 3 INTs last year at Indiana on Nov. 28. But Indiana was intercepting everyone last year. It was sunny at 50 that day, with kickoff at noon.
He was 18 of 26 for 282 with 3 TDs and 0 INTs at Penn State on Nov. 7. It was unseasonably 72 degrees that day at Penn State, last year.
I can’t find evidence of him attempting a game pass with temperatures under 50 degrees.
The last time I can find that he played in bad weather was his senior season in high school, in the semifinals. His team won but that day but he went 12-of-28 for 228 yards as a Crimson Tide commitment. It was 53 degrees and raining that day. Not cold. But not comfortable.
Temperatures were clear and in the 40s in their state title game against Phenix City Central during his high school senior year in 2018. His team lost 52-7. He played with an injured throwing shoulder He was 7 of 11 for a career-low 44 yards that night. He was sacked four times and threw a pick-six. That day might have been the only time he has attempted a pass in a game in 40-degree temps. On Saturday at Spartan Stadium, temperatures will be in the high 30s. He might not like it.
It makes me wonder about things like his hand size as well. He’s about 6-feet tall. In still photos, his hands don’t look big. The ball can get slippery when it’s cold.
Am I looking for fairy tale hope for the Spartans? Not really. But the Spartans need some help and hope, and these things could set this very talented Tagovailoa just a little bit off his mark. Michigan State needs all the help it can get. Just something to keep in mind.
Michigan State needs to get its run game saddled back up. This is a good chance to do it. Indiana rushed for over 200 yards against Maryland two weeks ago. Penn State’s mediocre running attack averaged less than 3 yards per carry.
As was the case last week, Michigan State needs to grind the ground game, achieve balance, stop the Maryland run game and survive the pass game. Special teams looks like a toss up.
Michigan State has more win belief right now than Maryland. That helps. Playing at home should jack up Michigan State just a little bit more than the Terps, of course. Mel Tucker has his guys believing they are built for this weather. Familiarity with the grass surface on days like this helps, too.
APPLES TO APPLES
I like Payton Thorne, but I give the edge to Tagovailoa. In cold weather, maybe not.
Michigan State is obviously way better at tailback.
MSU’s offensive line will remain reshuffled, with LT Jarrett Horst out. AJ Arcuri is expected to be at left tackle, and Kevin Jarvis is expected to be at right tackle. Not ideal, two weeks after Arcuri and Jarvis had possibly the best combined run blocking performance of their tag team career.
Maryland has been shuffling their o-line as well. They aren’t bad. They aren’t great. This is the Big Ten. No one is bad. I would give Michigan State the edge.
Tight end blocking has been inconsistent for both teams. Tight end receiving has been a little better for Maryland, especially last week. Tagovailoa really relied on his TE last week, who is a Connor Heyward type, maybe a little quicker. Edge Maryland.
Both teams have had injuries at WR. Maryland has had a little more productivity out of its next-man-up WRs than Michigan State. Jayden Reed is the best WR on the field, but Maryland’s No. 2 and 3 WRs might be slightly better than Tre Mosley and Montorie Foster at this point. Call it a tie.
Maryland’s 3-4 d-line is sturdy. MSU’s has been good, but is starting to blink out a little bit. Jacob Slade played on a bum ankle last week and wasn’t quite his dominant self. Jacub Panasiuk has grown quiet in the last two weeks. Drew Beesley has come back to help but isn’t at the level he was prior to his lower body injury.
Maryland does a lot of two-gapping out of its 30 front. They are burly guys who do a decent job but maybe aren’t loud playmakers.
Last week, Jalen Hunt got some playing time or Michigan State but didn’t play all that well. He looked a little heavy and didn’t show a great motor.
Overall, I have to give the d-line edge to Michigan State based on what Panasiuk has done in the past, and the possibility that Slade could bounce back. But last week, Maryland’s d-line was probably as good as MSU’s.
At linebacker, Michigan State isn’t without fault. Maryland is similar. Slight edge to Michigan State.
At cornerback, edge to Maryland.
At safety, edge to Michigan State.
In terms of pass defense solvency, they have both had leaks and slippage. Call it even.
THE LATEST ON MICHIGAN STATE
We have to touch on last week’s carnage before we can go forward with the Maryland analysis.
As shaky as Michigan State was in pass defense, Michigan State would have been on schedule to survive the situation and steal victory despite giving up 375 yards of offense IF the Spartans had held serve and gotten the ground game going, and not had a pair of three-and-outs in the third quarter.
If Michigan State had run the ball, and avoided four broken play big plays in pass defense for 191 yards, the Spartans would have been in position to steal a victory, no matter how ugly.
But Michigan State wasn’t good enough. I’m not making excuses. I’m just trying to figure out if Michigan State is as systemically terrible as their stats, or if there are enough correctable loose screws to bring this thing into the garage.
Looking back at that game, there were two big categories of concern for Michigan State in pass defense - and neither of them had much to do with individuals getting torched. That’s somewhat good news.
CATEGORY 1: FOUR BIG PLAYS
1. Michigan State CB Chester Kimbrough got beat for 42 yards when he fell down during Purdue’s second TD drive. Kimbrough had WR David Bell well-covered on the play. Kimbrough had him stacked (which means he was between the WR and the end zone). But Kimbrough fell.
2. 50 yards to Bell when Chuck Brantley played cover-two while everyone else was in cover-three. This led to one of Purdue’s field goals.
Freshman mistake. Inexcusable at any time of the year, but it happens once in awhile to most teams. HOWEVER, it happened to Brantley a couple of times in this game.
3. 53 yards to Bell when he beat Kimbrough in the fourth quarter. This was when Michigan State was desperately trying to get a stop in order to chop into Purdue’s lead in the fourth quarter.
Kimbrough hadn’t been bad in coverage most of the day, but on this play, he got flat-footed, lost technique and Bell shimmied right past him and got upfield.
You can play “pretty good” coverage all day, but it only takes one lapse like this to give up a big chunk and cause your team to lose grip on survival.
Kimbrough had hobbled off the field once earlier in the game. Michigan State couldn’t afford to have him sit. It was an exhausting game for DBs. He looked a little weary on this play. No excuse. Michigan State wasn’t the one doing the heavy swinging and landing the heavy punches at the end, for a change.
Give Kimbrough some relievers, and he might have been fresher at this key juncture. That’s not an excuse. It’s just an example of where Michigan State needs to get to from a depth standpoint. Put Marqui Lowery and Kalon Gervin on this team last week and I’m not saying it’s the No Fly Zone, but Kimbrough wouldn’t have been extended and exposed the way he was. He needed some help and didn’t have any.
4. 46-yard screen pass in the fourth quarter. This was with 5 minutes to play. Michigan State had just cut the lead to 8 points on a 2-point conversion pass to Maliq Carr. Michigan State had momentum. Needed a stop.
Surprisingly, Michigan State came out aggressive and desperate on first down with a five-man rush. MSU’s blitzes hadn’t been getting home on this day. Michigan State customarily would stick with a base defense in this situation. With five minutes to play, Michigan State didn’t need to force the issue. But Michigan State did, came with a blitz, and got burned with a devastating 46-yard screen pass.
Maybe Purdue would have sliced up anything Michigan State threw at them in the fourth quarter. But the screen absolutely destroyed the blitz. Michigan State threw paper and Maryland threw scissors on that play.
And Angelo Grose missed a tackle.
I’m not saying Michigan State deserved to win. I’m saying eliminate those four super-correctable plays for 191 yards and Michigan State is giving up a passable number of passing yards. You can win a game while giving up 350 yards passing. Penn State did it against Maryland last week. This isn’t 1985.
That doesn’t hide the fact that MSU’s pass defense has gone from shaky to bad. But I’m trying to present my thoughts that this doesn’t necessarily have to be the worst pass defense in history every single week.
This wasn’t a case of Michigan State getting out-manned and flat-out torched by superior players. That would be a big problem, coming from Purdue. And this could very well happen next week at Ohio State. But for now, the problems are correctable for this level of competition.
Saturday’s problems at Purdue weren’t like the avalanche of problems in a 1992 loss to Notre Dame, for those of you who remember that red letter day. Notre Dame came out and threw deep, deep, deep because Michigan State simply didn’t have the CBs who could cover Lake Dawson and the like.
ND had been more of a power run team that year, but Lou Holtz smartly came out and said, “We’re going deep. You can’t cover us.” And he was correct. ND took a big lead early, and cruised, 52-31. It could have been 70-7 if ND wished.
There is a difference between the two. ND delivered a TKO of athletic superiority.
Purdue’s 500-plus yards were a case of execution and Michigan State’s correctable errors.
CATEGORY 2: BUSTS
* SpartanMag analyst and contributor Ron Armstrong pointed out that he was stunned by how many pure assignment and technical errors Michigan State made in pass defense.
Example: The Chuck Brantley cover-two error when everyone else was in cover-three (allowing the WR to get behind him with no Spartan helper on the deep half).
Example: Brantley not moving a muscle on a 5-yard TD pass behind him and into the cover-two hole which gave Purdue a 14-7 lead.
Armstong cited other examples, such as the Michigan State slot nickel not rerouting a clear threat to the seam (which enabled an easy hook for about 15 yards).
And there was one case in run defense when Purdue blasted an 8-yard run down to the 1-yard line when Jalen Hunt was one-gapping while everyone else on the line was two-gapping.
Comp’s Take: Brantley’s cover-two error has all the markings of a guy who didn’t read the sideline signals correctly. Possibly the same issue on the 5-yard TD. Possibly the same issue for Hunt when he one-gapped.
I don’t have inside info on this, but when I see Brantley doing the wrong thing and Hunt doing the wrong thing, I’m left wondering if Michigan State may have changed some defensive signals for this game and those young guys just didn’t get on the right page. Michigan State hasn’t had quality control issues like this on defense all year, but it cropped up a handful of times in this game, just enough to alter the proceedings.
* MSU’s pass rush didn’t provide pressure often enough. But Purdue was getting the ball out in under :02 seconds almost every time. That’s a credit to Purdue’s offensive scheme, the route combinations and a QB who can make great pre-snap reads, and decisive post-snap reads (add his accuracy, and his WR’s route running), and you can see why they also riddled Iowa’s zone defense and eventually chased the Hawkeyes out of zone and into man-to-man (something very few teams are capable of doing).
So Purdue was good. And Michigan State had cracks in its quality control armor like we haven’t seen all year.
Earlier this week, Mel Tucker was asked how involved he was going to be in the corrections.
“Very involved,” Tucker said.
His answer came quickly and with more conviction and more loudly than most of his answers at these press conferences. I detected a measure of take-over frustration in that. Armstrong had the same read on it.
Does that mean Michigan State will get it fixed? Not necessarily. But I have more faith in the process than I had if, say, Chris Smeland were in charge.
And I have strong reason to believe that Tucker is going to hold his coordinators accountable more so than some other recent head coaches Michigan State has had.
* All that aside, does Michigan State have the legs to hang with a quality passing attack like Maryland? Or is Michigan State truly the worst pass defense in the country, as the stats indicate?
With a healthy and mind-right Brantley, plus a healthy Ronald Williams and a healthy Chester Kimbrough, Michigan State would be able to hold Maryland under 300 yards passing (not a great accomplishment), but enough to win if Michigan State is stuffing the run (which is expected) and establishing offensive balance (which should happen if Michigan State avoids relapses in poor tight end blocking like what happened in the third quarter last week).
But Michigan State doesn’t have a healthy Brantley or Williams. And Kimbrough is a little gimpy.
I don’t expect Brantley to play. I expect Williams to attempt to gut it out. Michigan State needs him to do it. It’s November. Potentially a November to remember.
Kimbrough is mentally tough and will be looking to bounce back.
I think those guys will be okay for the most part, but I don’t know what they will look like 60 or 70 or 80 snaps into the game. Maryland will go up tempo. Maryland’s QB is a fine, fine player, improving all the time, with limited talent around him. But you know he and the Maryland receivers are salivating about going against this Michigan State pass defense, and they will be eager to throw it around for 50 pass attempts, or more. The tests will keep coming. Michigan State might pass those tests early, but you have to do it all day, something Kimbrough wasn’t able to do last week .
* Might we see an Michigan State wide receiver moved to CB out of necessity?
Absolutely.
Montorie Foster has done it in the past, briefly, in practice. But he is needed at WR, and he is gaining some traction there. And he was seen with the WRs during a mic’d up All Access released earlier this week.
Terry Lockett would be a candidate for an emergency move to CB.
True freshman Antoine Booth might be pressed into duty against his former home state Terps. But I have to say I thought his high school film was just okay. And then he didn’t play high school ball last fall due to the pandemic. I have no idea what he’s been looking like in practice but I’m not surprised that we haven’t seen him on the field. Maybe he’ll surprise me.
As for walk-ons, Michigan State has had some good walk-on CBs in the program in the past. Guys like Corey Pryor and Mitchell White come to mind; even though they never really got to play, they were capable. But from what I’ve seen, MSU’s walk-on cornerback situation is not good right now. We saw walk-on DBs and CBs in the spring scrimmage, and it wasn’t good. If those guys have to play, Michigan State becomes sub-MAC level at the position in a hurry.
* As for MSU’s issues on offense, Jarrett Horst won’t be playing at left tackle. Michigan State is preparing to go the rest of the season without him.
Michigan State was coming off a terrific performance in the run game against Michigan. Right tackle AJ Arcuri and right guard Kevin Jarvis played at a high level that day, but now are reshuffled again. And with it, the physical rhythm those two were achieving on the right side of the line gets lost in the wash.
That being said, Michigan State should still be able to get some ground beef going in this game. Maryland might contain the run for a little while, but keep probing it and some will pop. That should have been the case last week. It needs to be the case this week.
* Other stuff: Michigan State on defense doesn’t seem to be hitting as hard as they did earlier in the year. The Michigan game put some wear on their bones. Michigan State’s has had to play so many snaps on defense, more than any team in the Big Ten. That’s like adding an extra game to the schedule.
SETTING THE TABLE
Maryland is 5-4, trying to become bowl eligible for the first time in five years.
Maryland’s results
W vs West Virginia, 30-24
W vs Howard, 62-0
W at Illinois, 20-17
W vs Kent State, 37-16
L vs Iowa, 51-14
L at Ohio State, 66-17
L at Minnesota, 34-16
W vs Indiana, 38-35
L vs Penn State, 31-14
LAST WEEK
The game at Penn State was MUCH closer than the score indicated.
Maryland was tied with Penn State 14-14 early in the fourth quarter and the Terrapins were pretty much out-playing Penn State at that point.
Turning point came on an 86-yard PSU pass to WR Dotson on second-and-17 with 14:02 to play. Clever little slant-and-go to the cover-four seam. Dotson is explosive as heck. As good as Jayden Reed is, Reed is not as explosive as Dotson.
Then Maryland dropped a pass inside the 20-yard line on third down, had a false start when trying to go for it on fourth down, and decided to punt from the PSU 38-yard line with about 8 minutes to go. Punt bounded into the end zone. Touchback. Darn.
A few plays later, Maryland brought a seven-man rush/zero blitz on third-and-seven. PSU hit Dotson on a rub mesh (crossing) route vs CB 2 Bennett. Not Bennett’s fault. Very hard route to cover with no safety help. It got out for 45 yards to the Maryland 11-yard line with 7:35 to play. PSU hit a field goal with 6:36 to play to go up 24-14.
Then on Maryland’s next drive, the Terps drove to the PSU 13-yard line. But Tagovailoa was picked off and returned 88 yards for a TD and a 31-14 lead. Tagovailoa was trying to hit a crossing route vs a blitz and was a little late with it but it was at a point in the game when he had to take a chance.
Dan Enos, the former Michigan State QB, assistant coach and currently the Maryland offensive coordinator, grabbed Tagovailoa by both sides of the helmet and had encouraging words for the young QB after that play. The QB is good, despite that play and the final score. That’s what Enos was likely telling him. And he’s right.
Last week’s stats:
First downs: Maryland 29, PSU 23.
Total yards: Penn State 456, Maryland 419.
Penn State rushed for 118 yards in gains (netted 93 for 2.8 per carry).
Maryland rushed for 91 yards in gains against Penn State (netted 48).
Maryland tailback Faamatau averaged 3.5 per carry and netted 38 yards on 11 attempts.
Maryland tailback Tayon Fleet-Davis averaged 4.6 per carry against Penn State, netting 37 on eight attempts.
TALE OF THE TAPE STATS
* Maryland and Michigan State allow the most passing yards per game than any teams in the Big Ten. Michigan State is allowing 321.2 yards per game through the air in conference games. Maryland is allowing 271.
Michigan State is lapping the field in this dubious category.
But, for what it’s worth, Michigan State is No. 9 in the Big Ten in yards allowed per pass attempt in conference games. Maryland is worse and No. 13.
Michigan State has been halfway decent in this category for most of the year despite being dead last in the nation in pass defense for the year. HOWEVER, Michigan State was terrible in all categories last week in pass defense, which dropped Michigan State to No. 9 in the Big Ten in yards allowed per pass attempt.
* These are also two of the worst teams in the Big Ten in third down defense. Michigan State is No. 12 and Maryland is No. 14.
Between the poor pass defenses and poor third down defenses, this game could become a wild, sloppy affair. HOWEVER, an rain, sleet, snow or wet field conditions will help the pass defenses. If this becomes more of a run game affair, that will favor Michigan State. Michigan State stops the run better than Maryland and establishes the run better than Maryland - at least that’s been the mode so far.
* The following are stats for Big Ten games only:
OFFENSE
Scoring Offense: Maryland is No. 10 in the Big Ten at 19.8 ppg.
(Michigan State is No. 3 at 29.7).
Offense Yards Per Play: Maryland is No. 6 at 5.4.
(Michigan State is No. 2 at 6.6).
Rushing YPP: Maryland No. 13 at 2.8
(Michigan State is No. 1 at 5.4).
Passing YPP: Maryland is No. 7 at 7.3.
(Michigan State is No. 9 at 7.0).
Sacks Allowed: Maryland is No. 9 with 15 sacks allowed.
(Michigan State No. 4 with 11 sacks allowed.)
Third Down Pct: Maryland is No. 7 at 34.7.
(Michigan State is No. 11 at 32.9).
DEFENSE
Scoring Defense: Maryland is No. 14 at 39.0 allowed per game.
(Michigan State is No. 9 at 23.7).
Defense Yards Allowed Per Play: Maryland is No. 13 at 6.3.
(Michigan State is No. 8 at 5.4).
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Play: Maryland is No. 12 at 4.5.
(Michigan State is No. 5 at 3.4).
QB Sacks: Maryland is No. 6 with 16 sacks.
(Michigan State is No. 3 with 19, but the Spartans have been cooling off in this category over the last two games).
Third Down Defense Pct: Maryland is No. 14 at 47.1 percent. (Michigan State is No. 12 at 42.9 percent).
CULTURE BALL
* Maryland was trading blows evenly with Penn State last week and seemed headed into the end zone for a 14-13 score late in the third quarter. Maryland was mixing in some surprising run game with excellent pass game and had it second-and-two at the PSU 10-yard line, but a bad center snap resulted in a fumble and PSU’s ball and a blowing scoring opportunity for Maryland.
Stuff like that piles up on losing teams. Ask Nebraska.
Question is whether Maryland, with four losses on the year, will be “just good enough to lose” due to things like this on Saturday, or if it’s Michigan State’s turn to have a run of errors like this. Saturday’s game may very well be decided by which team doesn’t beat itself. Michigan State has been pretty good in that area most of the year, although there were some hiccups at Indiana and Rutgers. Can’t afford many against this week’s opponent. Need to get back to a clean culture.
THINGS TO KNOW
Maryland head coach Mike Locksley is in his third year with the Terps.
He took over a devastated program and went 3-9, 2-3 and is now 5-4. The Terps are doing better under Locksley than I expected. He had a terrible time at the University of New Mexico from 2009-2011 (2-26 overall). But this Maryland team looks pretty good.
He is from the area and had been a Maryland assistant in the past. Locksley’s career was rehabilitated as an analyst at Alabama and then offensive coordinator for the Tide in 2018. That’s where he met Dan Enos (and Mel Tucker).
Locksley was a good hire for Maryland, to help with outreach and to bridge the gap from the tragedy of the death of player Jordan McNair under the previous staff due. Locksley made sense for a lot of reasons. But didn’t expect much success. I was wrong. They are already better than I thought they ever would be under him. He’s running a pretty solid program right now, and they are trending in the right direction. He has improved as a head coach.
THE MARYLAND OFFENSE
Tagovailoa can throw from the pocket, or on the move. He has a very quick release, good zip and good accuracy. He’s good.
Maryland is going to get hot with the passing game, get some uptempo concepts going, throwing on the run, taking deep shots, using some RPO. They have been trying to get the run game going, but without much success.
They are going to complete passes and move the ball. They are going to get into the red zone. Red zone defense will be paramount again, as it’s been all year. Tucker says he doesn’t want to be a bend-but-don’t-break defense, but that’s what Michigan State has amounted to this year, and it will have to be that way again this year.
* In the pass game, Tagovailoa is comfortable throwing the wide side of the field, with touch or zip, or into the bucket on a 25-yard out to the field side. He is very comfortable with passes over the middle, whether they are ins, crossing routes, or sit-downs. He has a very quick release, with good zip on it.
I haven’t seen any/many bubble screens from Maryland. They will occasionally throw a “now” screen. But they will hit the RPO on you.
* He has good receivers to throw to, but not a dominant guy like a Dotson or a David Bell. WR Dontay Demus was supposed to be that guy for the Terps this year, and he was that guy before going down with a season-ending injury in the Iowa game.
The 6-foot-4 Demus led the Big Ten and was No. 11 in the country in receiving yards and receiving yards per game (111.5) at the time of his injury.
* Eight different Maryland players caught a pass in the first half against Penn State last week.
* In the run game, Maryland is a basic inside zone team. They will mix in some power to the C-gap, and an occasional outside zone. Not much variance.
Not a terrible running attack. They have Big Ten backs and Big Ten offensive linemen. Similar to Rutgers or Purdue in the run game.
OFFENSIVE PERSONNEL
QB 3 TAULIA TAGOVAILOA (5-11, 200, R-Soph., Ewa Beach, HI
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 9 in Alabama.
* Signed with Alabama, where his brother was a superstar. Transferred to Maryland when Locksley left Alabama for the Terps’ head coaching job.
* Has started 13 games. He’s trending very hot. As stated, my question will be whether he is comfortable in his first game in cold weather.
* Quick release, good zip. Good footwork to set up his throws, whether side-stepping in the pocket, or being flushed.
* Began the Indiana game 7-of-7 for 126 yards, helping Maryland to a 14-0 lead.
+ Crazy-good pass last week against PSU in the 2Q to the TE (9 Okonkwo) on a square-in at 12 yards while be flushed to his right, across his body, zip and accuracy on the move. Arm strength, mixed with accuracy and mobility. Mercy.
As much as I said I liked Aidan O’Connell’s brain and ability to process for Purdue, this guy for Maryland is just as good, and trending better, but with a different skill set. Tagovailoa seems pretty good in the brain department too, but the arm/feet/zip/accuracy/mobility stuff is a headache and he has a quicker release than anyone Michigan State has played this year.
* On the move, he can drive the ball with arm strength going to his right, or throw a touch pass when flushed to his left.
* He does all that stuff AND they do it with tempo, and they sew in some RPOs.
* 57 pass attempts vs PSU. His previous high was 43.
* He will break out the zone read keeper just enough to keep you honest, and he’ll get good gainers on it.
* Threw five interceptions against Iowa.
“That game was an anomaly for him,” Locksley said. “Since then he has played winning football for us.”
Pro Football Focus on his game against Iowa:
Tagovailoa entered last week’s game against the vaunted Iowa pass defense as the highest-graded quarterback in the country. He didn't have a single turnover-worthy play to his name. But the outing changed that, and he earned a poor 51.7 passing grade for the night, buoyed by four turnover-worthy plays. Iowa’s zone defense caused Tagovailoa to hold onto the ball, subsequently disrupting the timing of the Terps' offense. He was still effective on quick throws against Iowa, and his 92.0 passing grade this season on passes faster than 2.5 seconds ranks second-best in the FBS this season. For Tagovailoa to continue to climb up this list, he has to get better at not forcing throws on long-developing plays.
Tagovailoa vs Indiana:
+ 48-yard throw to WR 1 Flemming vs off coverage. Perfect throw from Tagovailoa, from the right hash to the far side of the field. Dropped it in the bucket while getting some heat.
+ 25-yard completion on a deep wheel to the wide side of the field, good touch.
+ RPO slant to 15 Cobbs for 15 yards vs an inside blitz.
+ 43-yard pass to Jarrett on a deep out at 25 yards then the run after the catch. Jarrett was the No. 3 receiver (third receiver from the boundary), ran a downfield switch concept (where he criss-crosses with the No. 2 receiver downfield, this time at 20 yards) which screwed up the safety in a five-DB cover-four. Good concept, time to throw, good read, accurate.
+ Nice little RPO hitch to beat a CB blitz for a 14-yard TD to WR 83 Carriere.
+ 43-yard TD to WR 83 Carrier on another sight-adjust against a corner blitz, made the safety miss and was gone. That gave Maryland a 35-20 lead in the fourth quarter.
* He will hold the ball a little longer than Purdue’s QB, and the pass rush will have a chance to get home. But he is quite mobile.
RB 8 TAYON FLEET-DAVIS (6-0, 215, Sr., Oxon Hill, Md.)
* Three-star recruit, No. 12 in Maryland.
* Averaging 49.9 yards rushing per game, 5.1 per carry. Has 399 yards rushing on the year.
+ Good hands on the swing pass.
* Solid battler, not a game-breaker.
+ Deep route, lining up as wide out, capitalizing on a CB error for a deep shot gain of 45 against Indiana. QB with a backyard sight adjust and threw accurately on the run.
RB 29 Challen Faamatau (5-11, 225, Sr., Kalihi, HI/Coffeyville CC)
+ Nice 2-yard TD run (4 yards after contact) on a quick-tempo, outside zone out of an under-center I formation.
* Good short-yardage guy. Nice job lowering his shoulder to pick up third-and-two last week in the 3Q.
- But he was stopped on fourth-and-1 at Indiana. RT played too wide on an inside zone, and TE 9 Okonkwo got beat inside.
RB Peny Boone (6-1, 245, Soph., Detroit King)
* Four-star RB, ranked No. 10 in Michigan. Dantonio’s staff offered him, but Tucker’s staff didn’t pursue him.
* 27 rushes on the year, averaging 4.3 per cary, 115 net yards on the season.
WIDE RECEIVER
* Maryland has shown some good depth here. After some injuries, including a big one to Demus, others have stepped up and been pretty decent.
WR 5 RAKIM JARRETT (6-0, 190, Soph., Palmer Park Md.)
* Five-star recruit, ranked No. 19 overall player in the nation.
* Also took official visits to Alabama and LSU.
* Last year was honorable mention All-Big Ten. Had 17 catches in four games with two TDs.
* Is having a good impact thus far at Maryland but I wouldn’t call him a great one yet.
* Leads team with 31 catches.
* Averages 57.9 yards receiving per game.
* Six catches for 70 yards against PSU.
* Five catches for 88 yards against Indiana.
* Solid job on the hitch and then getting north aggressively for all he can get.
* Also hit a little RPO to him for 8 yards, selling an outside zone to the right but having the run-pass option to throw the hitch back to the left.
+ Deep wheel route for 25 yards at Indiana as the No. 3 receiver.
WR 1 MARCUS FLEMMING (5-10, 165, Fr., Miami)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 57 in Florida.
* has 12 catches on the year.
* Has emerged from a reserve to become a pretty good depth threat.
- Dropped a deep over route vs PSU in the 2Q.
* Five catches for 38 yards last week against Penn State.
+ 15 yard catch on a sprint out to the right, sail concept (three-level flood with an over route trailing) on the first play of a drive with 11:38 to play. Real nice route, throw and execution. This is a pretty good team.
- Pass through his hands on third-and-seven at the PSU 21-yard line with 10:00 to play and Maryland trailing 21-14. QB put it on him, on a crosser against two-deep/man-under. (Then on fourth-and-seven, the left tackle flagged for false start; and Maryland then punted, from the PSU 38-yard line. Ouch. Then punt bounded into the end zone for a touchback. Culture ball.)
+ 48 yard catch vs off coverage against Indiana. Perfect throw from Tagovailoa, from the right hash to the far side of the field. Dropped it in the bucket while getting some heat.
WR 83 CARLOS CARRIERE (6-5, 200, Sr., Alpharetta, Ga.)
* Three-star recruit, No. 77 in Georgia. Spring commitment also had offers from Illinois and mid-majors.
* Big game vs Indiana with eight catches for 134 yards with two TDs.
* Good, finger tip catch on RPO early in the PSU game.
* Has 15 catches and four TDs.
* Had only two catches last year. Had 12 catches as a sophomore in 2019.
WR 10 Tai Felton (6-1, 185, Fr., Ashburn, Va.)
* Three-star recruit, No. 31 in Virginia.
* November commitment also had offers from Michigan State, Duke, Nebraska, Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia, Va Tech and Wake Forest.
* Has four catches on the year, and is starting to get involved as Maryland needs other to step up.
+ 17 yard out in the 2Q vs Penn State. QB on time and laser zip on it, quick release, vs cover-four zone. Ball came out pretty quick for a relatively deep out. Pass pro was good enough. This is the type of conventional pitch and catch, in uptempo, that can and will eat Michigan State alive.
TIGHT END
* Maryland’s tight ends combined for 16 of the Terps’ 41 completions last week.
* No. 9, Okonkwo, has become Tagovailoa’s favorite target.
TE 9 CHIGOZIEM OKONKWO (6-3, 250, Sr., Powder Springs, Ga.)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 56 in Georgia.
* Also had offers from Georgia Tech and Wisconsin.
* 12 catches for 85 yards last week.
- Dropped pass on third down last week in the 2Q on a dig.
* Has 32 catches on the year.
* Pretty good quickness at tight end, and comfortable hands, similar to Connor Heyward in size, quickness and hands. Probably a little quicker than Heyward. Excellent possession weapon.
* Two-point conversation catch on a slide route, well-designed and executed, to tie the game last week at 14-14 early in the 4Q.
* Missed a block on a fourth-and-one stoppage at Indiana.
WR 84 Corey Dyches (6-2, 220, Soph., Oxon Hills, Md.)
* Was a three-star recruit, No. 22 in Maryland.
* Also had offers from UNC, Boston College, Rutgers, Pitt, Syracuse.
* Four catches for 38 yards and a TD last week.
* Slender TE type.
* TD 12 yards on a wheel route vs cover-four zone. He was the third receiver to the short side on a FIB (formation into the boundary, which means three receivers crowded into the short side).
That was a well-designed, quick-hitting play. Good offense. Pretty good team.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* Had one false start and three holding penalties last week.
* They’ve been shuffling the o-line, but seemed to settle on a starting five last week with the RT moving to center.
* Not a great line, not a bad line. Typical middle of the pack Big Ten offensive line.
LT 71 JAELYN DUNCAN (6-6, 320, Jr., New Carrollton, Md.)
* Four-star recruit, No. 9 in Maryland.
* Summer commitment over offers from Florida, Iowa State, LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and others.
- Beaten for a sack last week on a dip/rip to the outside in the 1Q.
+ Good pull, fold and lead block on a third-and-three conversion via an outside gap run last week in the 3Q.
* Good pull by RT 54 on that play
LG 78 MASON LUNSFORD (6-7, 305, Soph., Olney, Md.)
* Three-star recruit, No. 20 in Maryland.
* Committed just before signing day with offers from Army and Air Force.
+ Good combo block clearing out to the LB last week to spring the RB for a gain of 16 early in the 2H vs PSU. Good footwork to get the turn and seal on a LB.
- Allowed a sack to LB McFadden of Indiana, but that guy is hard to block when they blitz him.
C/RT 54 SPENCER ANDERSON (6-5, 330, Jr., Bowie, Md.)
* Three-star recruit, No. 24 in Maryland.
* Moved to center last week, replacing 66 Aric Harris, who was a juco transfer.
- High snap turned the ball over to PSU in the third quarter last week when Maryland was down just 14-6.
RG 65 JOHARI BRANCH (6-3, 330, Sr., Chicago Phillips Academy)
* Three-star recruit, Juco, Independence (Kan.) CC.
* Also had an offer from Purdue.
* No opinion (which means I didn’t notice him positively or negatively, and didn’t focus on him).
* Same with the right tackle.
MARYLAND DEFENSE
A lot of these Maryland players, especially on defense, I look at them and I think, “Well that guy is pretty good. Good start-and-stop athleticism. Some strength. How tall is he?”
I’ll look it up, and he’ll be a 6-foot-2 defensive end (not ideal height). Or a 6-foot outside linebacker (not ideal height).
I mean they are big enough to play decent defense at this level. But with the way some of these guys move, if they were a couple of inches taller, they would be somewhere besides Maryland.
Maryland is a team fully capable of beating Michigan State. I’m not saying Michigan State is great. But, like I said about Rutgers, even with the Terps likely to reach a bowl game for the first time in five years, they are “still Maryland” at some positions. Good, athletic guys, but limited ceilings.
These guys have a “defect” of sorts, in that they don’t have ideal size at some positions. Not all positions. The safety, No. 18, looks the part and plays the part.
They are faster in the secondary than Rutgers was. They don’t have problems tackling the way Miami did.
They had some communication busts late in the Indiana game, to keep allowing the Hoosiers back into it.
* Locksley said Maryland’s d-line played “winning football” last week against PSU.
* Maryland d-line had three sacks last week.
* Maryland allowed just 2.8 yards per rush last week against a medicore PSU run game.
* Allowed 66-yard TD run to Stephen Carr of Indiana. Outside zone, cut back to the B gap. LB 11 got out of his gap while trying to knack where the ball was going to go, very difficult sometimes for an inside LB to do behind two-gapping defensive linemen. Matt Millen commented that the LB needed to stay patient and not overpursue over the top. Might have been the only time I’ve ever heard Millen offer useful analysis. (I’m sure he knows more about football than all of us combined, but I’ll diplomatically assume that he tries to dumb things down for the viewers, and usually ends up telling us nothing, aside from “really well-done.”)
GAME WITHIN THE GAME
After watching their Penn State game, I thought, “Wow, they don’t even try to disguise anything. If they line up with two safeties deep, it’s going to be zone. If they line up in press with one safety deep, it’s going to stay that way at the snap and they are in man-to-man.
I thought that seemed remedial and easy to read. I wondered why they would be so transparent.
Then I watched their game from the previous week against Indiana, and it looked like they tried to disguise things a little more. But too often, they ended up fooling themselves.
It looked to me like they tried to keep things simpler for the Penn State game. The results weren’t bad, I guess. But Penn State popped off some big gains on third down when they knew it was man-to-man and they went with some man-beater crossing routes.
If Maryland plays like they did last week, they will go press man-to-man quite often, especially on first down and third down, and sometimes press/man/zero (meaning no safeties over the top and they’re blitzing). And they don’t disguise it well.
Can Michigan State check to deep “go” routes and beat these CBs off the line of scrimmage when they show press? Good WRs can do it. Can Reed, Mosley, Foster? That’s the game within the game this week.
* Maryland’s defense plays square, and correct-shoulder their collisions, and they have guys that are physical, can run and hit. This is the Big Ten with scholarship athletes and million-dollar coaches. Everyone can play at least a little, every team has positive moments at some point in pretty much every game.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Locksley:
“Our interior d-line is playing well. We’re a 3-4 front. Very few of the big plays that have happened have happened in the A-gaps or B-gaps. The C-gaps is the area where we have kind of been exposed.”
He said injuries to edge linemen an outside linebackers have necessitated playing younger players.
Translation: Michigan State might be able to saddle up the run off-tackle this week. Outside zone. Or inside zone and try look for the K-9 bounce to the outside.
DE 97 SAM OKUAYINONU (6-2, 280, Sr., Lowell, Mass).
* Was a three-star recruit and juco transfer.
+ Pretty good ability to bend the hoop on the edge. Used that lateral quickness to elude an PSU pull guard, wrapping around the puller to get to the QB on a designed keeper for no gain.
* Not the tallest guy, but he has quick feet. In that regard, reminiscent of a Jonal Saint-Dic, but more physical and not quite the pass rusher but a pretty good one (five sacks).
+ Good timing and quickness with the swipe move to play the run, getting PSU RB Cain on the ground after a gain of 1 on an inside zone last week in the 2Q.
* Slippery good pass rusher for a thick guy when he surprises you with a one-gap shoulder dip move. Had a sack doing that against Indiana.
46 Greg Rose (6-2, 295, Sr., Los Angeles)
* Two sacks against PSU. Has three sacks on the year.
+ Beat Penn State’s RT for one sack, kind of badly. RT seemed to be preoccupied with the LB threat.
+ Second sack was also a coverage sack, early in the 4Q with the score tied at 14-14.
+ Pretty quick with a stunt for a sack to end Indiana’s first possession of the game.
10 Tyler Baylor
* One sack against PSU, coverage sack, defeated the RG puller protector off of play action. Gave him a two-hand shiver and got off, not really a pass rush move to make that sack. PSU QB Clifford held the ball too long;
Maryland was in cover-three zone with PSU WRs running vertical routes, not much available to him intermediately. PSU better not get caught with too many elongated route combos against Michigan; PSU’s pass pro isn’t good enough to hold out.
NT 55 AMI FINAU (6-2, 320, Sr., Kahuku, HI)
* Juco transfer.
* Solid, solid, solid.
* Solid, solid, solid.
* Can two-gap, disengage and defeat the average center regularly.
* Solid.
DT 34 MOSIAH NASILI-KITE (6-2, 310, Jr., Pittsburg, Calif.)
* Three-star recruit out of Independence Community College.
* Also had offers from Arizona and mid-majors.
* Honorable Mention All-Big Ten last year. Had four sacks last year.
* Strong with the press when two-gapping, but not great at disengaging to make a play.
+ Good job with a surprise one-gap manuever for a TFL on an inside zone in the 4Q last week.
DE 95 LAWTEZ ROGERS (6-4, 270, Sr., Landover, Md.)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 14 in Maryland.
* Had offers from Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, Wake Forest.
* Had three starts last year.
* Somewhat active, capable, unspectacular.
* Three TFLs on the year, no sacks.
* Maryland is playing hard on film. Locksley says they are continuing to play hard in practice.
Penn State was a targeted rival for Penn State. Penn State has a lot of Maryland players and Maryland has some players who wanted to be recruited by Penn State. Maryland played hard and played well in that game.
Now, at 5-4 can they toe the line and answer the bell again, or will they have a little dropoff? Maryland has a lot of incentive; they are trying to become bowl eligible. But football rhythms would indicate that Maryland might be due for a letdown. Locksley is on the lookout for it and is complimenting his players for having played hard all year. Now, November is for contenders. Michigan State is contending for a division championship and needs to step it up; Maryland is contending for bowl eligibility and needs to do the same.
MARYLAND’S RUSHING DEFENSE
Rushing Yards vs Maryland In Recent Games:
Penn State 93 on 33 attempts (2.8 per carry)
Indiana 204 on 42 attempts (4.9 per carry).
Minnesota 326 yards on 56 attempts (5.8 per carry).
Ohio State 166 yards on 33 attempts (5.0 per carry).
Iowa 145 yards on 42 carries (3.5 per carry).
Minnesota beat Maryland with simple, physical inside (and occasional) outside zone plays. Maryland’s safeties are better at correct-shoulder team leverage than they showed that day. Linebacking gap “knack” was poor at that time. It’s a big better now, but they need to stay focused and driven to stop Michigan State and Kenneth Walker III.
Locksley said teams were going to keep running the ball against the Terps until they proved they could stop the run, and Maryland did it last week, but the pass game got away from them.
“We played the run well against Penn State, but the flip side is we gave up too many yards in the pass game,” he said.
LINEBACKERS
LB 11 RUBEN HYPPOLITE (6-0, 230, Soph., Davie, Fla.)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 61 in Florida.
* Spring commitment.
* Plays like a stand-up DE at times, as a wide nine.
+ Good bull pass rush to press the pocket from the edge on third down in the first quarter against PSU.
* Pretty good strength to go with start&stop athleticism on this guy.
* Solid shoulder-first hitter.
* Good closing speed on the scrape.
LB 19 AHMAD McCULLOUGH (6-2, 225, Jr., Baltimore)
* Three-star recruit out of Hutchinson CC.
+ Solid run stuff on a third-and-two for a gain of 1 against Indiana in the 2Q.
- A little slow at reading flow sideline-to-sideline at times.
- Got out of his gap while trying to knack where the ball was going to go on an outside zone play to the weak side. Picking a gap is difficult sometimes for an inside LB to do behind two-gapping defensive linemen. He struggled with it; struggled several times vs Minnesota trying to figure out which gap he was supposed to fit.
- Was involved in a coverage bust 18-yard TD to Indiana TE Hendershot in the fourth quarter. Maryland’s defense kind of went on a mental vacation after going up 35-20 and let Indiana back in it with a pair of busts on that quick-answer TD drive.
LB 4 DEMEIOUN ROBINSON (6-4, 250, Fr., Gaithersburg, Md.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 8 in Maryland.
* Spring commitment also had offers from Alabama and Clemson.
* Was named to ESPN’s mid-season True Freshman All-America team this year.
(LB Branden Jennings, 6-3, 235, Fr., Jacksonville, Fla.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 18 in Maryland.
* Has been out with a lower body injury since the Kent State game on Sept. 25. Prior to that he was a starter, and also was named to ESPN’s mid-season True Freshman All-America team).
* Practiced last week but had a setback. Locksley said he practiced this week.
* I haven’t seen film on him.
21 Gerem Spraggins (6-3, 250, Soph., Severn, Md)
- lost his gap on an inside zone in the 3Q against Penn State, allowing a ground gain of 15.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
* Allowed 11 catches for 242 yards to Penn State WR Dotson, with three TDs. The 242 yards is a Penn State school record.
* Maryland allowed PSU to convert 10 of 18 on third down.
* Indiana hit Maryland with a 31-yard delayed release throwback to the TE. Maryland was in cover-four and carried the other threats downfield, opening up a vacuum for the delayed release TE throwback.
GUESS THE GAMEPLAN
* Penn State had success with shallow crossers on third down against man-to-man. Michigan State hasn’t been great with shallow crossing routes this year, but this could be the week to get that going.
* Maryland does the usual array of pass coverages, from man-to-man to cover-four zone, but they don’t seem to try to disguise anything.
* They play a lot of man-to-man on third down, and they don’t disguise it. That makes it easier for the QB and the route runners. Their coverage guys aren’t bad, but this approach to pass defense doesn’t help their cause.
They will get beat in man-to-man and grab shirts to try to stay alive. At least they did against PSU. Are MSU’s WRs that good to draw holding penalties from the Maryland CBs? Maybe not, without Nailor. We’ll see. (as for holding penalties, the Maryland DBs usually got away with it. The officials didn’t see it or didn’t think jerseys were being grabbed quite enough to flag it).
CB 2 JAKORIAN BENNETT (5-11, 195, Sr., Mobile, Ala.)
* Transfer from Hutchinson (Kan.) Community College.
* Leads all Power Five teams in pass break-ups per game.
+ Really good pass break-up on a comeback to Indiana’s Ty Frygogle in the 3Q. Excellent drop and break on the ball out of press.
+ Good break on the ball out of cover-four for a near INT on a deep comeback early in the PSU game.
- Missed tackle high on a third-and-7 short out last week, allowing the conversion.
- Got beat deep last week by a step when Maryland went blitz/cover zero (no safeties). But QB Clifford overthrew WR Washington.
- Allowed 21-yard TD on a post vs cover-four zone to WR Dotson of PSU last week. Bennett lost outside leverage on the play, got twisted up, but wasn’t going to have enough safety help even if he did maintain proper leverage.
CB 12 TARHEEB STILL (6-0, 185, Soph., Sickerville, NJ)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 14 in New Jersey.
- Beaten by Dotson as the No. 3 WR in man-to-man on third down in the 3Q, but got away with holding Dotson’s jersey.
* Will shift back into safety when on the same side of the field as 2.
* Pretty nifty blitzer should have had a sack in the 3Q last week, but missed it and QB Clifford found a RB valve for 10 yards.
+ Knocked away a deep shot for Fryfogle against Indiana in the 1Q. Good coverage.
S 3 NICK CROSS (6-1, 215, Jr., Bowie, Md.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 2 in Maryland.
* Committed after signing day. Also took official visits to Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State.
* Was Honorable Mention All-Big Ten last year.
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 14 in New Jersey.
- Allowed a 30-yard completion on an over route last week, but his coverage wasn’t bad. Very good pass by PSU’s Clifford.
- Turned inside out by WR Dotson of PSU last week on a post-and-go double move for a 38-yard TD. In cover-four zone.
+ Pretty lively hitter and good speed tackler in pursuit.
S 18 JORDAN MOSLEY (6-1, 205, Sr., Havertown, Pa.)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 22 in Alabama.
* Signed with Northwestern as a WR over mid-majors.
* Has played all four years at Maryland. Three-year starter.
* Strong, mobile frame on this guy.
+ Huge hit on PSU’s WR Parker Washington last week on a corner route.
NB 14 Isaiah Hazel (6-1, 205, Jr., Largo, Md.)
* Nickel man, plays a lot of man-to-man in the slot. He had trouble against PSU’s No. 3 WR. Can Michigan State put Jayden Reed in the slot and get a favorable matchup against 14 on third down when Maryland is in man-to-man?
Maryland will put No. 2 in the slot at times to cover your best WR, but they won’t do it all day. There aren’t a lot of mismatch opportunities out here for Reed, but Michigan State will move him around and probe.
SPECIAL TEAMS
* Maryland kicker missed an extra point last week that should have tied the game at 7-7 at halftime. He missed a 40-yarder vs Indiana that would have created a 17-0 lead.
* Kicker made a 41-yarder with 1:20 left against Indiana to provide a 10-point lead and basically ice the game. Hit a 48-yarder against Minnesota.
* Indiana blocked a punt against Maryland two weeks ago, getting pressure up the middle.
* Maryland blocked field goals against Illinois and Minnesota.
ADD IT ALL UP
If Tagovailoa is unbothered by the weather, and Michigan State hasn’t tightened any screws in pass defense since last week, then the Spartans had better be prepared to score at least 34 to win.
In normal circumstances, I think Michigan State would have a good chance of getting those screws tightened. But getting it done amid injury problems at cornerback is a bit troubling. It will be interesting to see who emerges as the No. 3 CB if Brantley and Marqui Lowery aren’t able to go. I have no info on Lowery. We haven’t seen him since he left the Michigan game.
Tagovailoa will hold the ball a little longer than O’Connell, and although Maryland’s pass pro isn’t bad, it is not as good as Michigan’s. So the Spartans have a chance to get the pass rush revved up for the first time in a few weeks, but are Slade, Panasiuk and Beesley healthy and ready to fire? I think Panasiuk is.
Maryland’s run support at safety and linebacker has been leaky at times this year. After the loss in somewhat of a rivalry game at Penn State, and now coming on the road on a grass surface, possibly with some cold rain, definitely with temperatures uncomfortable, and whatever fans are at the Stadium are likely to be loud, is Maryland ready to answer the bell and throw haymakers? Is Maryland ready to take additional steps in run defense, or will they have a relapse now that they aren’t playing Penn State anymore?
Some of the zone plays and bouncy RBs that Minnesota had success with against Maryland reminded me a little bit of Kenneth Walker III’s style and vision. MSU’s run game might match up well against this outfit, and it’s possible the Spartans could be due for something north of 225 yards rushing. That’s what needed to happen last week, but the run game misfired just enough to dig a hole for the Spartans while the pass defense failed.
If Maryland gets into a rhythm, Tagovailoa can play high-speed keepaway quite well, especially if MSU’s pass defense is still a deer in the headlights. I just want to see him do it with a cold football.
How much improvement can Michigan State’s pass defense make in one week? Well, if Michigan State is good in the red zone on both sides of the ball and Kenneth Walker III gets off for at least 175, and Thorne throws well enough, then the Spartans should be able to win even if they give up 300 yards passing. As long as they stop the run, as most teams do against Maryland.
Special teams could swing the game. A strange bounce or call could swing it. MSU’s offensive balance, run game, and run defense should give the Spartans the edge as long as the pass defense doesn’t have another pratfall.
In a neutral environment, Michigan State might have trouble in a shootout with these guys. At home, in the cold, on grass, with Michigan State probably grouchier than Maryland, the Spartans have more to play for, and you would assume will execute just well enough. But this is a difficult game with a lot to lose for Michigan State.
