Trends, Schemes & Analysis: with info from today's presser & kickoff team news
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Trends, Schemes & Analysis: True freshmen and kickoff coverage
Jim Comparoni | Publisher
EAST LANSING - Michigan State has already played 10 players from its 24-man recruiting class and Mark Dantonio said during his weekly press conference on Monday that an 11th, defensive back Dominique Long, is likely to play soon, too.
During Saturday’s 28-14 victory over Western Michigan, the Spartans activated true freshman Connor Heyward. He was inserted into the kickoff coverage unit in the second half, after the Spartans had trouble with Broncos return specialist Dairus Phillips in the first half.
“(We) took the red-shirt off Connor Heyward, who I think will be an outstanding player for us,” Dantonio said. “You'll see him showing up in other special teams in other areas, as we”
**
My take on the Heyward news:
One:“Outstanding” is a strong word. Dantonio uses it kind of loosely. But they wouldn't play Heyward if they didn't think he could help. And they need help.
I’ll be interested to see what other areas Heyward plays. He began camp as a running back, but he also saw work on defense in the second half of camp. Michigan State is set with good running back depth right now, so I wonder if we might see him at linebacker. I didn’t happen to notice during pregame on Saturday whether he repped on the defensive side of the ball. I will look into that.
Two: As for using Heyward on special teams, Michigan State has put different emphasis on kick coverage this year. It didn’t show against Western Michigan’s Phillips, who had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 52-yarder in the first half.
**
MSU is 2-0 and playing excellent defense. So let's focus on areas of concern - namely the kickoff team.
**
Breaking It Down:
Michigan State has used more starters and defensive regulars on kickoff coverage this year than in the past several years, returning to a mode of operation Dantonio used regularly earlier in his career.
Starting tight end Matt Sokol made a resounding hit on kickoff coverage in the opener against Bowling Green. Gerald Holmes was also noticeable in kick coverage.
Other starters on kickoff coverage include safeties Khari Willis and Matt Morrissey. Regulars include linebacker Shane Jones, linebacker Anjuan Simmons and cornerback Josiah Scott.
Reserves who played on kickoff coverage included TJ Harrell, Byron Bullough and Sean Harrington. Grayson Miller was on kickoff coverage early in the game, Saturday.
However, some of the starters and regulars weren’t great on kickoff coverage against Western Michigan.
On the 52-yarder, Holmes and Harrington lost their collisions with Western Michigan’s two best tight ends. That caused them to lose a step or two of leverage on the ball.
Meanwhile, Morrissey stepped out of his lane a bit.
The combination of those three breaks in coverage integrity gave Phillips some daylight.
As for the kickoff, Phillips made his first cut at 15 yards, which isn’t bad for the kick team. The low kick wasn’t terrible in that regard.
The coverage broke down due to losing collisions to playing-group tight ends from the other team. As the saying goes, they have guys on scholarship too.
Here’s The Thing: Michigan State is using some starters on kickoff coverage. The Spartans want to play some of their best on that unit. They aren't trotting guys like Heyward out there just to get them in the stat sheet and fulfill recruiting promises. Michigan State needs execution.
Heyward was NOT on the field for the 52-yarder in the second quarter. The decision to remove his redshirt and get him on the field was an attempt to improve team performance in the kicking game and deal with the Phillips crisis.
Dantonio said last Thursday that the Spartans spent extra time on coverage units in preparation for Western Michigan's Phillips. That might not have shown up on Saturday in terms of MSU’s problems in that area. But during the week, Heyward demonstrated that he deserved consideration. And when it became probable that he could handle the business better than some who were on the field, the decision was made to activate him.
**
As a side note, it would be ideal if MSU just had someone who could knock it in the end zone every time and put less pressure on the kick coverage team.
Kickoff specialist Brett Scanlon has posted only two touchbacks on 11 kickoffs.
Scanlon transferred to Michigan State from Western Michigan with the reputation of being a boomer on kickoffs. But we haven’t seen evidence of that.
"He's been pretty good," Dantonio said of Scanlon. "He kicked one a little flat this past week, which we can't have, but I think he's solid. He's a team guy. He's got toughness and I think he's a big competitor."
That competitiveness was shown, unfortunately for the Spartans, during a couple of crisis moments on Saturday. Scanlon gave Phillips a pretty good, hearty chase during Phillips' 52-yard kickoff return in the first quarter. Scanlon didn't end up getting the tackle on that play but rerouted Phillips a bit in allowing Willis a chance to have an angle on him at the sideline.
Of course, MSU would rather have had a deeper kick from Scanlon on that play.
**
As for the kickoff that was returned for a touchdown, first of all Michigan State lined up on MSU’s left side of the field, but Scanlon sent a directional kick to the right corner of the field.
That wasn’t an error. Michigan State lined up and kicked it the other way for the opening kickoff, which went three yards deep for a touchback.
I’m not an expert on kick coverage strategies, but perhaps Michigan State was trying to keep WMU guessing on where to put Phillips, and where the blocking angles would originate.
As a result, MSU’s kick coverage players had an extra yard or two to run in order to get to Phillips on this play. That didn’t help.
**
From there, WMU’s blocking scheme and execution were superb. Phillips has five career kickoff returns for touchdowns, and part of the reason is due to his terrific talent. But upon further review, the WMU kickoff return concepts are excellent in theory and terrific in execution.
For the TD return, WMU essentially put a trap play on Harrington. He came forward unopposed for a few yards, but then was horizontal trap blocked, kicking him out to the right.
Harrington was the fourth man from the sideline in coverage.
David Dowell, who wasn’t on the field for the long return in the first half, was the third man from the sideline.
WMU second-string linebacker Blake Spears sought out Dowell, won the collision, stayed on Dowell, put him on skates, and sled-blocked him all the way out to the sideline.
With the No. 3 man (Dowell) erased to the left sideline, and the No. 4 man (Harrington) trap blocked to the right, that left a crease in the coverage lanes. That’s why Scanlon ended up in the unenviable and unplanned task of trying to fill a vacated lane, and that’s why Scanlon became demolised by WMU blocker DeShawn Foster.
Meanwhile, Willis and Heyward were sealed outward, too.
That’s a 5-0 victory for WMU blockers vs Michigan State coverage men, plus a nifty, well-timed scheme and a tarzan of a return man. That’s a TKO.
Could the safety TJ Harrell have arrived a step earlier at a better angle? I’m not sure.
Basically, WMU players had more fight and fire in their blocks than Michigan State players had in trying to defeat the blocks.
**
So what’s next? More work needs to be done, obviously, and the right personnel needs to be pinpointed.
Notre Dame is on tap in two weeks, and Notre Dame defeated Michigan State in 2011 with a kickoff return for a touchdown by George Atkinson serving as a turning point in the game, giving ND a 14-3 lead late in the first quarter.
Last year, Northwestern delivered one of the negative turning points of the season when the Wildcats returned a kickoff for a TD against the Spartans, just when it looked like Michigan State was staging a spirited comeback.
If the situation doesn’t get resolved, the kickoff situation could cost the Spartans a victory at some point this season.
As for Scanlon, Dantonio said: “So you know, going to have opportunities, like I said. You know, here comes the 10-game season now. So he'll have opportunities as we go but he's done a nice job.”
As for the translation of that comment, we aren’t sure what “going to have opportunities” means.
Does that mean there are going to be opportunities for others, including true freshman Cole Hahn, to beat out Scanlon and win the job?
Opportunities for Scanlon to improve and prove himself?
Opportunities to see whether Scanlon is the best man for the job?
We aren’t sure. And I’m not going to speculate that Hahn is better than Scanlon. I don’t subscribe to the unknown-is-undefeated theory. If Hahn were better, he would be playing.
The ironic thing is that Michigan State gave Hahn a scholarship long after signing day for the purpose of competing for the kickoff job. This was after Scanlon was mediocre in the spring game.
Hahn was seen making a clutch field goal to end practice during August camp. But, until further notice, Scanlon is the man on kickoff duties, and Michigan State will continue to work on its coverage units.
And that’s where the Dominique Long news comes into play. If too many DB-types are failing to win collisions on kickoff coverage, or losing lane integrity … next man up.
Long is a 6-foot-2, 185-pound true freshman safety from Westerville, Ohio.
“I just think he does too many things on special teams,” Dantonio said. “He's a good tackler. I think we can get him involved.”
And with it, one wonders if the decision to play starters on kickoff coverage in this day and age of uptempo offenses and the potential for 90 defensive snaps a game is as sound an idea as it was 10 years ago. Michigan State is taking that into consideration too, with this move.
I suspect we’re going to see Long on kickoff coverage and one of the defensive regulars on the bench for a breather.
“It's a long season and you get guys nicked up and they can't practice and then you end up practicing this guy or that guy, and I think he's a good football player and I think he'll play,” Dantonio said. “I thought he might have played this past week but we held him out. But I do anticipate him playing.”
Jim Comparoni | Publisher
EAST LANSING - Michigan State has already played 10 players from its 24-man recruiting class and Mark Dantonio said during his weekly press conference on Monday that an 11th, defensive back Dominique Long, is likely to play soon, too.
During Saturday’s 28-14 victory over Western Michigan, the Spartans activated true freshman Connor Heyward. He was inserted into the kickoff coverage unit in the second half, after the Spartans had trouble with Broncos return specialist Dairus Phillips in the first half.
“(We) took the red-shirt off Connor Heyward, who I think will be an outstanding player for us,” Dantonio said. “You'll see him showing up in other special teams in other areas, as we”
**
My take on the Heyward news:
One:“Outstanding” is a strong word. Dantonio uses it kind of loosely. But they wouldn't play Heyward if they didn't think he could help. And they need help.
I’ll be interested to see what other areas Heyward plays. He began camp as a running back, but he also saw work on defense in the second half of camp. Michigan State is set with good running back depth right now, so I wonder if we might see him at linebacker. I didn’t happen to notice during pregame on Saturday whether he repped on the defensive side of the ball. I will look into that.
Two: As for using Heyward on special teams, Michigan State has put different emphasis on kick coverage this year. It didn’t show against Western Michigan’s Phillips, who had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 52-yarder in the first half.
**
MSU is 2-0 and playing excellent defense. So let's focus on areas of concern - namely the kickoff team.
**
Breaking It Down:
Michigan State has used more starters and defensive regulars on kickoff coverage this year than in the past several years, returning to a mode of operation Dantonio used regularly earlier in his career.
Starting tight end Matt Sokol made a resounding hit on kickoff coverage in the opener against Bowling Green. Gerald Holmes was also noticeable in kick coverage.
Other starters on kickoff coverage include safeties Khari Willis and Matt Morrissey. Regulars include linebacker Shane Jones, linebacker Anjuan Simmons and cornerback Josiah Scott.
Reserves who played on kickoff coverage included TJ Harrell, Byron Bullough and Sean Harrington. Grayson Miller was on kickoff coverage early in the game, Saturday.
However, some of the starters and regulars weren’t great on kickoff coverage against Western Michigan.
On the 52-yarder, Holmes and Harrington lost their collisions with Western Michigan’s two best tight ends. That caused them to lose a step or two of leverage on the ball.
Meanwhile, Morrissey stepped out of his lane a bit.
The combination of those three breaks in coverage integrity gave Phillips some daylight.
As for the kickoff, Phillips made his first cut at 15 yards, which isn’t bad for the kick team. The low kick wasn’t terrible in that regard.
The coverage broke down due to losing collisions to playing-group tight ends from the other team. As the saying goes, they have guys on scholarship too.
Here’s The Thing: Michigan State is using some starters on kickoff coverage. The Spartans want to play some of their best on that unit. They aren't trotting guys like Heyward out there just to get them in the stat sheet and fulfill recruiting promises. Michigan State needs execution.
Heyward was NOT on the field for the 52-yarder in the second quarter. The decision to remove his redshirt and get him on the field was an attempt to improve team performance in the kicking game and deal with the Phillips crisis.
Dantonio said last Thursday that the Spartans spent extra time on coverage units in preparation for Western Michigan's Phillips. That might not have shown up on Saturday in terms of MSU’s problems in that area. But during the week, Heyward demonstrated that he deserved consideration. And when it became probable that he could handle the business better than some who were on the field, the decision was made to activate him.
**
As a side note, it would be ideal if MSU just had someone who could knock it in the end zone every time and put less pressure on the kick coverage team.
Kickoff specialist Brett Scanlon has posted only two touchbacks on 11 kickoffs.
Scanlon transferred to Michigan State from Western Michigan with the reputation of being a boomer on kickoffs. But we haven’t seen evidence of that.
"He's been pretty good," Dantonio said of Scanlon. "He kicked one a little flat this past week, which we can't have, but I think he's solid. He's a team guy. He's got toughness and I think he's a big competitor."
That competitiveness was shown, unfortunately for the Spartans, during a couple of crisis moments on Saturday. Scanlon gave Phillips a pretty good, hearty chase during Phillips' 52-yard kickoff return in the first quarter. Scanlon didn't end up getting the tackle on that play but rerouted Phillips a bit in allowing Willis a chance to have an angle on him at the sideline.
Of course, MSU would rather have had a deeper kick from Scanlon on that play.
**
As for the kickoff that was returned for a touchdown, first of all Michigan State lined up on MSU’s left side of the field, but Scanlon sent a directional kick to the right corner of the field.
That wasn’t an error. Michigan State lined up and kicked it the other way for the opening kickoff, which went three yards deep for a touchback.
I’m not an expert on kick coverage strategies, but perhaps Michigan State was trying to keep WMU guessing on where to put Phillips, and where the blocking angles would originate.
As a result, MSU’s kick coverage players had an extra yard or two to run in order to get to Phillips on this play. That didn’t help.
**
From there, WMU’s blocking scheme and execution were superb. Phillips has five career kickoff returns for touchdowns, and part of the reason is due to his terrific talent. But upon further review, the WMU kickoff return concepts are excellent in theory and terrific in execution.
For the TD return, WMU essentially put a trap play on Harrington. He came forward unopposed for a few yards, but then was horizontal trap blocked, kicking him out to the right.
Harrington was the fourth man from the sideline in coverage.
David Dowell, who wasn’t on the field for the long return in the first half, was the third man from the sideline.
WMU second-string linebacker Blake Spears sought out Dowell, won the collision, stayed on Dowell, put him on skates, and sled-blocked him all the way out to the sideline.
With the No. 3 man (Dowell) erased to the left sideline, and the No. 4 man (Harrington) trap blocked to the right, that left a crease in the coverage lanes. That’s why Scanlon ended up in the unenviable and unplanned task of trying to fill a vacated lane, and that’s why Scanlon became demolised by WMU blocker DeShawn Foster.
Meanwhile, Willis and Heyward were sealed outward, too.
That’s a 5-0 victory for WMU blockers vs Michigan State coverage men, plus a nifty, well-timed scheme and a tarzan of a return man. That’s a TKO.
Could the safety TJ Harrell have arrived a step earlier at a better angle? I’m not sure.
Basically, WMU players had more fight and fire in their blocks than Michigan State players had in trying to defeat the blocks.
**
So what’s next? More work needs to be done, obviously, and the right personnel needs to be pinpointed.
Notre Dame is on tap in two weeks, and Notre Dame defeated Michigan State in 2011 with a kickoff return for a touchdown by George Atkinson serving as a turning point in the game, giving ND a 14-3 lead late in the first quarter.
Last year, Northwestern delivered one of the negative turning points of the season when the Wildcats returned a kickoff for a TD against the Spartans, just when it looked like Michigan State was staging a spirited comeback.
If the situation doesn’t get resolved, the kickoff situation could cost the Spartans a victory at some point this season.
As for Scanlon, Dantonio said: “So you know, going to have opportunities, like I said. You know, here comes the 10-game season now. So he'll have opportunities as we go but he's done a nice job.”
As for the translation of that comment, we aren’t sure what “going to have opportunities” means.
Does that mean there are going to be opportunities for others, including true freshman Cole Hahn, to beat out Scanlon and win the job?
Opportunities for Scanlon to improve and prove himself?
Opportunities to see whether Scanlon is the best man for the job?
We aren’t sure. And I’m not going to speculate that Hahn is better than Scanlon. I don’t subscribe to the unknown-is-undefeated theory. If Hahn were better, he would be playing.
The ironic thing is that Michigan State gave Hahn a scholarship long after signing day for the purpose of competing for the kickoff job. This was after Scanlon was mediocre in the spring game.
Hahn was seen making a clutch field goal to end practice during August camp. But, until further notice, Scanlon is the man on kickoff duties, and Michigan State will continue to work on its coverage units.
And that’s where the Dominique Long news comes into play. If too many DB-types are failing to win collisions on kickoff coverage, or losing lane integrity … next man up.
Long is a 6-foot-2, 185-pound true freshman safety from Westerville, Ohio.
“I just think he does too many things on special teams,” Dantonio said. “He's a good tackler. I think we can get him involved.”
And with it, one wonders if the decision to play starters on kickoff coverage in this day and age of uptempo offenses and the potential for 90 defensive snaps a game is as sound an idea as it was 10 years ago. Michigan State is taking that into consideration too, with this move.
I suspect we’re going to see Long on kickoff coverage and one of the defensive regulars on the bench for a breather.
“It's a long season and you get guys nicked up and they can't practice and then you end up practicing this guy or that guy, and I think he's a good football player and I think he'll play,” Dantonio said. “I thought he might have played this past week but we held him out. But I do anticipate him playing.”
Trends, Schemes & Analysis: MSU Defense
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Trends, Schemes & Analysis: Defense
Jim Comparoni | Publisher
Chris Frey celebrates strong defensive play in week one against Bowling Green. (photos by Alan Holben)
EAST LANSING - Was Michigan State’s defensive showing againstBowling Green reason to believe the Spartans are close to being back to the dominant ways of the glory days of the Mark Dantonio era?
Not quite. Not yet.
But it wasn’t a bad start, and a decent step heading into next week’s challenging visit from Western Michigan. The Broncos generated 357 yards and 31 points in a 49-31 loss at USC on Saturday.
“I thought our defense played outstanding,” Dantonio said. “They were two out of 15 on third or fourth downs which is huge. They couldn't run the football, and had about 45 yards rushing until the last series and had about 100 yards passing (actually 145). We played extremely well on defense.”
The Spartans held Bowling Green to 212 yards of offense and nine first downs.
The positives:
* Michigan State was quick and firm up the middle, with a rotation of defensive tackles playing well, down-in and down-out, and a new middle linebacker in Joe Bachiehandling the interior like a veteran.
* The Spartans played more man-to-man defense than their usual mode of operation from previous years, and did so with envelope-pushing contact and physicality during routes and when the ball was in the air - all while avoiding any pass interference penalties.
The negatives:
* Michigan State allowed receivers to get open deep on two occasions, maybe three. Starting cornerback Josh Butler allowed a 45-yard pass to 6-foot-5 Datrin Guyton on Bowling Green’s opening drive. The Falcons looked to go deep to Guyton on at least two other occasions, including one against Justin Layne but couldn’t hook up.
Layne, who otherwise had a strong game, allowed Guyton to get a step on him on a deep shot on third-and-eight in the first quarter, but Layne showed good make-up speed as an inaccurate pass fell incomplete. A perfect pass, like the one Morgan threw on the 45-yarder, would have been catchable for Guyton. He still had a half-step lead on Payne by the time the ball arrived.
All-MAC wide out Scott Miller beat Khari Willis deep from the slot area on fourth-and-two in the first half, but Falcons quarterback James Morgan sailed the ball out of bounds, and Miller dropped it anyway.
Bowling Green tried to go deep a handful of times after their initial success on the opening drive, but the Falcons were never able to execute. Michigan State rolled four cornerbacks into the game, and each of them were tested deep.
Overall, Dantonio gave the DBs a passing grade.
“I thought we played well defending the ball down the field,” Dantonio said. “I thought our corners played very well.”
Said co-defensive coordinator Mike Tressel:
“We gave up a couple plays, which will happen obviously when you're going against any offense who are going to make a couple plays. Everybody remained calm, there was no panic, they stayed together, that's what I was most excited to see.”
* Michigan State had only four penalties on this day, but an off-sides by Chris Frey on a third-and-seven incompletion gave the Falcons an extra snap on third-and-two. Frey made an error on the third-and-two, as well, when he was a step late in recognizing the fullback (his responsibility) sneaking past him and into the open over the middle. Morgan missed the fullback with his throw, otherwise Frey would have been responsible for back-to-back errors.
Frey made up for it with a strong second half, punctuated by the sack. One snap prior to the sack, he played the point on a zone run to his side and stacked it up like a plus player.
The neutrals:
* In terms of pass rush, the good news is thatFrey - who has had trouble getting home on blitzes earlier in his career - corralled Morgan for a sack as part of a four-man rush on the second series of the second half.
One sack a game is the same rate Michigan State had last year (12 sacks on the year) in fielding one of the least-productive pass rushes in the country.
One sack against the Falcons was worth celebrating at the time, but nothing to plant a flag over.
However, Michigan State amassed eight quarterback hurries, not a bad number, from eight different players: Frey, defensive end Kenny Willekes, defensive tackle Naquan Jones, Layne, Demetrious Cooper, Raequan Williams and Brandon Randle.
Williams’ pressure came on a third-and-five situation to help stifle Bowling Green’s opening drive, forcing a field goal attempt after the 45-yard completion had put Michigan State on its heels for a moment.
“I thought we had a couple more opportunities to have a few more sacks, but the motor was good,” said Tressel. “The pressure was much better. No doubt about it, it is improved. We'd like to get that quarterback on the ground a few more times.”
PASS RUSH: YOU MIGHT NOT HAVE NOTICED …
In addition to the sack and the hurries, Michigan State also drew a holding penalty via a new pass rush package on a third-and-seven late in the first half.
Michigan State showed a new defensive front for this play, with only two down linemen. Aside from the old occasional Narduzzi “chaos” package, Michigan State has ALWAYS gone with three down linemen as part of the nickel defense in passing situations.
This time, they switched it up with only two down linemen AND positioned the two down linemen all the way to the QB’s right side.
The alignment went like this:
* Frey standing up in a wide nine at left end, to the QB’s right.
* Next to Fry, Demetrius Cooper was a traditional defensive end over the C-gap.
* Next to Cooper, Raequan Williams was a traditional three-technique over the B-gap.
Cooper and Williams were the only players in a three-point stance (as “down” linemen).
Inside, there was NO ONE over the A-gaps at pre-snap, although Joe Bachie hovered around at the linebacker depth.
To the field side, redshirt freshman linebacker Brandon Randle lined up in a two-point stance in the C-gap, over the left tackle.
This alignment, with the dense pack of Frey, Cooper and Williams to the boundary side, basically guaranteed that Randle would get single-coverage on the field side. That’s what Michigan State wanted.
Randle sprang quickly with a good (not great) take-off. He can do better.
But he was quick enough with the take-off, and a brief fake fake to the inside, that when he countered fast back to the outside, Falcons left tackle Ryan Hunter panicked and grabbed him with his left arm. Hunter was flagged for holding.
(Away from that action, Michigan State ran an array of slants that resulted in all of the gaps getting filled, despite the initial imbalance. Bachie ended up joining the rush as a blitzer. Williams slanted from the boundary B across the faces of two offensive linemen all the way over the field A-gap. Williams wasn’t necessarily the featured man for this pressure, but his slant to the inside closed the gate in case of an unlikely draw play or QB run).
Michigan State coaches said they had been cooking up some new schemes to feature their talent better than they did a year ago in the pass rush. Well, this alignment and scheme was new. And it did feature Randle’s edge athleticism.
[By the way, third-string linebacker Shane Jones was on the field for this package, too. He’s not an every-down guy, and maybe not a prototypical pass defender. But he was tasked with threatening an inside blitz at pre-snap, and then dropped into short-area coverage with QB spy responsibilities and then short-area pass defense. When SpartanMag described Jones as being a “special ops” type of candidate, this is what we were talking about. Michigan State likes to give bit roles to third-string players in special ops, not to be confused with special teams.]
**
Post Script: While Randle was being held, the Falcon quarterback was able to attempt a pass, throwing incomplete for his split end on a short return route. Layne was in coverage on this play, and allowed a little too much separation on the short, angled return route, but the QB missed him.
PSS: Later in the game, Randle (6-2, 231, Battle Creek) displayed a nice spin move in registering a QB hurry.
“I was excited that we got probably six or seven defensive ends, six defensive tackles, seven linebackers, probably eight defensive backs all in, in early time, first three quarters,” Tressel said. "We were hoping we had a lot of guys that would be able to help us in critical situations, and we got to play a lot."
RISING RESERVES
Second-string safety David Dowell and second-string cornerback Josiah Scott were among the most impressive non-starters on defense for Michigan State.
Scott, a true freshman, had two pass break-ups and played sticky in coverage most of the day. He served as a first-stringer for part of August camp, but lost first-string status partly due to an undisclosed injury.
Butler, a redshirt sophomore, started the game in place of Scott on Saturday, and Butler also started the second half. Scott is supportive of his older teammate and is comfortable in his reserve role. But if Scott keeps improving, Butler will need to hustle in order to retain starting status. This appears to be a healthy situation for MSU for the long term.
David Dowell lays a heavy hith on 258-pound Bowling Green fullback Leonard Skattebo.
Dowell had two pass break-ups, delivered a heavy hit, and dropped what could have been a pick-six.
Dropping a potential interception is a negative in some ways, but this guy plays quick, and increasingly smart, which put him in position to have a chance for a pick-six. There's value in that.
Dowell is playing behind Willis. Willis is a leader and a sturdy tackler. Willis is playing with more knowledge than ever, and is a step quicker to the scene - however he isn't the fastest DB in the world.
Michigan State played press coverage across the board, most of the game. That means the Spartans not only played press coverage at cornerback, which has been commonplace for Michigan State over the years, the Spartans also played press coverage in the slot area with the nickel back. Michigan State has rarely done this in the past. The only times Michigan State has pressed slot receivers in the past has been in end-game situations or red zone situations, and rarely at that.
But Michigan State pressed the slot area several times in the early going of this game, signifying some of the changes Spartan coaches have talked about in terms of reducing some of the predictability of their base defense.
When Bowling Green coaches saw that the Spartans were pressing the slot area, and doing it with Willis, the Falcons called time out prior to a fourth-and-two play midway through the first half and put standout WR Scott Miller in the slot to attack Willis on a go route. Miller beat Willis off the line of scrimmage and was open by a step-and-a-half heading toward the end zone. Morgan’s pass fell incomplete, but MSU’s vulnerability in trying to play press coverage with Willis on slot receivers was evident on that play.
If Michigan State continues to opt for press coverage in the slot, one wonders when Dowell might emerge as the best-equipped player to provide that duty. Dowell, a former cornerback, is on the rise as a candidate at safety.
**
Reserves who were noticed winning football at first glance included Scott and Tyson Smith at CB, Dowell at safety, Cooper at defensive end, Randle at rush end, Shane Jones at LB, Gerald Owens at d-tackle and Naquan Jones at d-tackle. We’ll have to take a closer look at LB Byron Bullough, safety Grayson Miller, LB Tyriq Thompson, DT Devyn Salmon, DE Jacub Panasiuk and DT Kyonta Stallworth, but they all looked functional at the least.
ELITE REMNANTS
Michigan State is not the elite team it was from 2013 to ’15. Part of the changeover in the last season-and-a-half has been an increased reliance on non-redshirted players, while freshmen and sophomore have risen to important roles, perhaps earlier than would be the case if the roster were as deep and mature as it was in the championship years.
When the Spartans were rolling to championships, they often had standout players such as Darien Harris, Denicos Allen, Joel Heath and Shilique Calhoun redshirt and wait until their third or even fourth year in the program (in Harris’ case) before they started becoming impact players.
Michigan State doesn’t have that kind of veteran depth at every position, but there are still some reserve areas that have a championship feel.
Examples:
+ Naquan Jones’ athletic, hustling pursuit during a middle screen in the second quarter.
The 6-foot-4, 328-pound teen-ager pressed the middle and then sprinted to the ball, showing “who’s that guy?” speed. He arrived at the receiver at full bore and put a good lick on him at the end of a 3-yard gain
That’s what redshirt freshman back-up defensive tackles look like for powerful programs.
+ His tag team partner for the day, Gerald Owens, has been invisible for three-and-a-half years in making the transition from being a hefty tailback to a defensive lineman. He was a little slow to buy into the idea of becoming a d-lineman. But now he’s on board, and he’s playing functional football as a second-string defensive tackle, bordering on winning football.
Having to wait four years to get on the field as a second-stringer, and then looking like a quality player when he get his chance - that’s what happens at championship programs.
+ On one noticeable occasion, Salmon provided push vs. the Bowling Green center on an inside zone run late in the first half. Salmon reset the line of scrimmage and created room for Bachie to press forward and stuff the tailback for no gain.
After that play, Salmon checked out immediately as Michigan State quickly subbed its nickel defense onto the field. All 327 pounds of Mr. Salmon leaped up from the pile and excitedly hopped and skipped to the sideline for pats on the head, a happy Spartan Dawg.
A senior at that size, playing with that kind of force as a third-stringer, getting on the field for the first time in his career? That’s the type of thing that happens at championship programs.
The fact that Michigan State used three groups of defensive tackles as part of the regular playing group - that’s the type of thing championship programs are capable of doing.
+ And how about Shane Jones’ punishing hit on Falcons running back Josh Cleveland on a second-and-10 in the second quarter, moments after Michigan State took a 7-3 lead? Jones’ hit was a tone-setting play that helped swing momentum in Michigan State’s favor for good.
Jones saw playing time in third-down situations in this game, but he’s basically a third-string linebacker, behind Bachie and Byron Bullough at middle linebacker, and behind Frey and Tyriq Thompson at money linebacker. After this game, he might nudge back ahead of Bullough again. But the point is that he is an experienced fifth-year senior, who has started three games in the past. He might be carrying a little too much weight, but he’s about to turn 23-years-old and is playing with man strength.
A veteran like Jones, with his maturity and knowledge of the game, coming off the bench as a playing-group second- or third-stringer? That’s the type of thing you see with championship programs.
* On offense, a junior with the horsepower of Matt Sokol has had to wait four years to become a fixture in the offense at tight end - that’s what happens at championship programs. And the hit he made on kickoff coverage at the outset of the first half, running alongside senior Gerald Holmes in that role? Championship example.
* Madre London, after three years of intermittent use at tailback including a redshirt year, emerging from the third string to provide turning-point plays as a ball carrier in this game? He has had to wait due to strong talent at his position, and heavy competition - which are unmistakable signs of a championship program.
* Darrell Stewart has had to wait until his third year to become a regular in the playing group, and he did so on Saturday as the best player on the field. That’s very Ohio State or Alabama of him.
POST SCRIPT: Don’t get it twisted. Bowling Green was merely a sparring partner. Michigan State is thin and questionable in too many areas to be considered a championship team at this time, especially while playing in the toughest conference division in America. But there are still some healthy areas in the program, and they were noticeable in the season opener.
Josiah Scott with a pass break-up.
Photos by Alan Holben
Naquan Jones made an impact in his Michigan State debut as a second-string defensive tackle.
Shane Jones played with toughness in a reserve role.
Tyson Smith made national news with his pick-six in the season opener, his first game back since suffering a stroke last November.
Jim Comparoni | Publisher
Chris Frey celebrates strong defensive play in week one against Bowling Green. (photos by Alan Holben)
EAST LANSING - Was Michigan State’s defensive showing againstBowling Green reason to believe the Spartans are close to being back to the dominant ways of the glory days of the Mark Dantonio era?
Not quite. Not yet.
But it wasn’t a bad start, and a decent step heading into next week’s challenging visit from Western Michigan. The Broncos generated 357 yards and 31 points in a 49-31 loss at USC on Saturday.
“I thought our defense played outstanding,” Dantonio said. “They were two out of 15 on third or fourth downs which is huge. They couldn't run the football, and had about 45 yards rushing until the last series and had about 100 yards passing (actually 145). We played extremely well on defense.”
The Spartans held Bowling Green to 212 yards of offense and nine first downs.
The positives:
* Michigan State was quick and firm up the middle, with a rotation of defensive tackles playing well, down-in and down-out, and a new middle linebacker in Joe Bachiehandling the interior like a veteran.
* The Spartans played more man-to-man defense than their usual mode of operation from previous years, and did so with envelope-pushing contact and physicality during routes and when the ball was in the air - all while avoiding any pass interference penalties.
The negatives:
* Michigan State allowed receivers to get open deep on two occasions, maybe three. Starting cornerback Josh Butler allowed a 45-yard pass to 6-foot-5 Datrin Guyton on Bowling Green’s opening drive. The Falcons looked to go deep to Guyton on at least two other occasions, including one against Justin Layne but couldn’t hook up.
Layne, who otherwise had a strong game, allowed Guyton to get a step on him on a deep shot on third-and-eight in the first quarter, but Layne showed good make-up speed as an inaccurate pass fell incomplete. A perfect pass, like the one Morgan threw on the 45-yarder, would have been catchable for Guyton. He still had a half-step lead on Payne by the time the ball arrived.
All-MAC wide out Scott Miller beat Khari Willis deep from the slot area on fourth-and-two in the first half, but Falcons quarterback James Morgan sailed the ball out of bounds, and Miller dropped it anyway.
Bowling Green tried to go deep a handful of times after their initial success on the opening drive, but the Falcons were never able to execute. Michigan State rolled four cornerbacks into the game, and each of them were tested deep.
Overall, Dantonio gave the DBs a passing grade.
“I thought we played well defending the ball down the field,” Dantonio said. “I thought our corners played very well.”
Said co-defensive coordinator Mike Tressel:
“We gave up a couple plays, which will happen obviously when you're going against any offense who are going to make a couple plays. Everybody remained calm, there was no panic, they stayed together, that's what I was most excited to see.”
* Michigan State had only four penalties on this day, but an off-sides by Chris Frey on a third-and-seven incompletion gave the Falcons an extra snap on third-and-two. Frey made an error on the third-and-two, as well, when he was a step late in recognizing the fullback (his responsibility) sneaking past him and into the open over the middle. Morgan missed the fullback with his throw, otherwise Frey would have been responsible for back-to-back errors.
Frey made up for it with a strong second half, punctuated by the sack. One snap prior to the sack, he played the point on a zone run to his side and stacked it up like a plus player.
The neutrals:
* In terms of pass rush, the good news is thatFrey - who has had trouble getting home on blitzes earlier in his career - corralled Morgan for a sack as part of a four-man rush on the second series of the second half.
One sack a game is the same rate Michigan State had last year (12 sacks on the year) in fielding one of the least-productive pass rushes in the country.
One sack against the Falcons was worth celebrating at the time, but nothing to plant a flag over.
However, Michigan State amassed eight quarterback hurries, not a bad number, from eight different players: Frey, defensive end Kenny Willekes, defensive tackle Naquan Jones, Layne, Demetrious Cooper, Raequan Williams and Brandon Randle.
Williams’ pressure came on a third-and-five situation to help stifle Bowling Green’s opening drive, forcing a field goal attempt after the 45-yard completion had put Michigan State on its heels for a moment.
“I thought we had a couple more opportunities to have a few more sacks, but the motor was good,” said Tressel. “The pressure was much better. No doubt about it, it is improved. We'd like to get that quarterback on the ground a few more times.”
PASS RUSH: YOU MIGHT NOT HAVE NOTICED …
In addition to the sack and the hurries, Michigan State also drew a holding penalty via a new pass rush package on a third-and-seven late in the first half.
Michigan State showed a new defensive front for this play, with only two down linemen. Aside from the old occasional Narduzzi “chaos” package, Michigan State has ALWAYS gone with three down linemen as part of the nickel defense in passing situations.
This time, they switched it up with only two down linemen AND positioned the two down linemen all the way to the QB’s right side.
The alignment went like this:
* Frey standing up in a wide nine at left end, to the QB’s right.
* Next to Fry, Demetrius Cooper was a traditional defensive end over the C-gap.
* Next to Cooper, Raequan Williams was a traditional three-technique over the B-gap.
Cooper and Williams were the only players in a three-point stance (as “down” linemen).
Inside, there was NO ONE over the A-gaps at pre-snap, although Joe Bachie hovered around at the linebacker depth.
To the field side, redshirt freshman linebacker Brandon Randle lined up in a two-point stance in the C-gap, over the left tackle.
This alignment, with the dense pack of Frey, Cooper and Williams to the boundary side, basically guaranteed that Randle would get single-coverage on the field side. That’s what Michigan State wanted.
Randle sprang quickly with a good (not great) take-off. He can do better.
But he was quick enough with the take-off, and a brief fake fake to the inside, that when he countered fast back to the outside, Falcons left tackle Ryan Hunter panicked and grabbed him with his left arm. Hunter was flagged for holding.
(Away from that action, Michigan State ran an array of slants that resulted in all of the gaps getting filled, despite the initial imbalance. Bachie ended up joining the rush as a blitzer. Williams slanted from the boundary B across the faces of two offensive linemen all the way over the field A-gap. Williams wasn’t necessarily the featured man for this pressure, but his slant to the inside closed the gate in case of an unlikely draw play or QB run).
Michigan State coaches said they had been cooking up some new schemes to feature their talent better than they did a year ago in the pass rush. Well, this alignment and scheme was new. And it did feature Randle’s edge athleticism.
[By the way, third-string linebacker Shane Jones was on the field for this package, too. He’s not an every-down guy, and maybe not a prototypical pass defender. But he was tasked with threatening an inside blitz at pre-snap, and then dropped into short-area coverage with QB spy responsibilities and then short-area pass defense. When SpartanMag described Jones as being a “special ops” type of candidate, this is what we were talking about. Michigan State likes to give bit roles to third-string players in special ops, not to be confused with special teams.]
**
Post Script: While Randle was being held, the Falcon quarterback was able to attempt a pass, throwing incomplete for his split end on a short return route. Layne was in coverage on this play, and allowed a little too much separation on the short, angled return route, but the QB missed him.
PSS: Later in the game, Randle (6-2, 231, Battle Creek) displayed a nice spin move in registering a QB hurry.
“I was excited that we got probably six or seven defensive ends, six defensive tackles, seven linebackers, probably eight defensive backs all in, in early time, first three quarters,” Tressel said. "We were hoping we had a lot of guys that would be able to help us in critical situations, and we got to play a lot."
RISING RESERVES
Second-string safety David Dowell and second-string cornerback Josiah Scott were among the most impressive non-starters on defense for Michigan State.
Scott, a true freshman, had two pass break-ups and played sticky in coverage most of the day. He served as a first-stringer for part of August camp, but lost first-string status partly due to an undisclosed injury.
Butler, a redshirt sophomore, started the game in place of Scott on Saturday, and Butler also started the second half. Scott is supportive of his older teammate and is comfortable in his reserve role. But if Scott keeps improving, Butler will need to hustle in order to retain starting status. This appears to be a healthy situation for MSU for the long term.
David Dowell lays a heavy hith on 258-pound Bowling Green fullback Leonard Skattebo.
Dowell had two pass break-ups, delivered a heavy hit, and dropped what could have been a pick-six.
Dropping a potential interception is a negative in some ways, but this guy plays quick, and increasingly smart, which put him in position to have a chance for a pick-six. There's value in that.
Dowell is playing behind Willis. Willis is a leader and a sturdy tackler. Willis is playing with more knowledge than ever, and is a step quicker to the scene - however he isn't the fastest DB in the world.
Michigan State played press coverage across the board, most of the game. That means the Spartans not only played press coverage at cornerback, which has been commonplace for Michigan State over the years, the Spartans also played press coverage in the slot area with the nickel back. Michigan State has rarely done this in the past. The only times Michigan State has pressed slot receivers in the past has been in end-game situations or red zone situations, and rarely at that.
But Michigan State pressed the slot area several times in the early going of this game, signifying some of the changes Spartan coaches have talked about in terms of reducing some of the predictability of their base defense.
When Bowling Green coaches saw that the Spartans were pressing the slot area, and doing it with Willis, the Falcons called time out prior to a fourth-and-two play midway through the first half and put standout WR Scott Miller in the slot to attack Willis on a go route. Miller beat Willis off the line of scrimmage and was open by a step-and-a-half heading toward the end zone. Morgan’s pass fell incomplete, but MSU’s vulnerability in trying to play press coverage with Willis on slot receivers was evident on that play.
If Michigan State continues to opt for press coverage in the slot, one wonders when Dowell might emerge as the best-equipped player to provide that duty. Dowell, a former cornerback, is on the rise as a candidate at safety.
**
Reserves who were noticed winning football at first glance included Scott and Tyson Smith at CB, Dowell at safety, Cooper at defensive end, Randle at rush end, Shane Jones at LB, Gerald Owens at d-tackle and Naquan Jones at d-tackle. We’ll have to take a closer look at LB Byron Bullough, safety Grayson Miller, LB Tyriq Thompson, DT Devyn Salmon, DE Jacub Panasiuk and DT Kyonta Stallworth, but they all looked functional at the least.
ELITE REMNANTS
Michigan State is not the elite team it was from 2013 to ’15. Part of the changeover in the last season-and-a-half has been an increased reliance on non-redshirted players, while freshmen and sophomore have risen to important roles, perhaps earlier than would be the case if the roster were as deep and mature as it was in the championship years.
When the Spartans were rolling to championships, they often had standout players such as Darien Harris, Denicos Allen, Joel Heath and Shilique Calhoun redshirt and wait until their third or even fourth year in the program (in Harris’ case) before they started becoming impact players.
Michigan State doesn’t have that kind of veteran depth at every position, but there are still some reserve areas that have a championship feel.
Examples:
+ Naquan Jones’ athletic, hustling pursuit during a middle screen in the second quarter.
The 6-foot-4, 328-pound teen-ager pressed the middle and then sprinted to the ball, showing “who’s that guy?” speed. He arrived at the receiver at full bore and put a good lick on him at the end of a 3-yard gain
That’s what redshirt freshman back-up defensive tackles look like for powerful programs.
+ His tag team partner for the day, Gerald Owens, has been invisible for three-and-a-half years in making the transition from being a hefty tailback to a defensive lineman. He was a little slow to buy into the idea of becoming a d-lineman. But now he’s on board, and he’s playing functional football as a second-string defensive tackle, bordering on winning football.
Having to wait four years to get on the field as a second-stringer, and then looking like a quality player when he get his chance - that’s what happens at championship programs.
+ On one noticeable occasion, Salmon provided push vs. the Bowling Green center on an inside zone run late in the first half. Salmon reset the line of scrimmage and created room for Bachie to press forward and stuff the tailback for no gain.
After that play, Salmon checked out immediately as Michigan State quickly subbed its nickel defense onto the field. All 327 pounds of Mr. Salmon leaped up from the pile and excitedly hopped and skipped to the sideline for pats on the head, a happy Spartan Dawg.
A senior at that size, playing with that kind of force as a third-stringer, getting on the field for the first time in his career? That’s the type of thing that happens at championship programs.
The fact that Michigan State used three groups of defensive tackles as part of the regular playing group - that’s the type of thing championship programs are capable of doing.
+ And how about Shane Jones’ punishing hit on Falcons running back Josh Cleveland on a second-and-10 in the second quarter, moments after Michigan State took a 7-3 lead? Jones’ hit was a tone-setting play that helped swing momentum in Michigan State’s favor for good.
Jones saw playing time in third-down situations in this game, but he’s basically a third-string linebacker, behind Bachie and Byron Bullough at middle linebacker, and behind Frey and Tyriq Thompson at money linebacker. After this game, he might nudge back ahead of Bullough again. But the point is that he is an experienced fifth-year senior, who has started three games in the past. He might be carrying a little too much weight, but he’s about to turn 23-years-old and is playing with man strength.
A veteran like Jones, with his maturity and knowledge of the game, coming off the bench as a playing-group second- or third-stringer? That’s the type of thing you see with championship programs.
* On offense, a junior with the horsepower of Matt Sokol has had to wait four years to become a fixture in the offense at tight end - that’s what happens at championship programs. And the hit he made on kickoff coverage at the outset of the first half, running alongside senior Gerald Holmes in that role? Championship example.
* Madre London, after three years of intermittent use at tailback including a redshirt year, emerging from the third string to provide turning-point plays as a ball carrier in this game? He has had to wait due to strong talent at his position, and heavy competition - which are unmistakable signs of a championship program.
* Darrell Stewart has had to wait until his third year to become a regular in the playing group, and he did so on Saturday as the best player on the field. That’s very Ohio State or Alabama of him.
POST SCRIPT: Don’t get it twisted. Bowling Green was merely a sparring partner. Michigan State is thin and questionable in too many areas to be considered a championship team at this time, especially while playing in the toughest conference division in America. But there are still some healthy areas in the program, and they were noticeable in the season opener.
Josiah Scott with a pass break-up.
Photos by Alan Holben
Naquan Jones made an impact in his Michigan State debut as a second-string defensive tackle.
Shane Jones played with toughness in a reserve role.
Tyson Smith made national news with his pick-six in the season opener, his first game back since suffering a stroke last November.
Game Story with Dantonio quotes
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Cruise Control: MSU wins opener, 35-10
Jim Comparoni | Publisher
EAST LANSING - Michigan State dominated the middle quarters in coasting to a 35-10 victory over Bowling Green, in the season opener Saturday at Spartan Stadium.
The Spartans were far from error-free on this day, but the final score helps begin the 2017 season on a sweet note, helping to reduce the sour memory of last year’s 3-9 season.
“After today, what happened in the past doesn’t matter anymore,” said senior linebacker Chris Frey. “We are a new team, new guys.
“There is a sigh of relief but we are just excited. We just celebrated hard in the locker room.”
That's the first time they've been able to do that since blowing out Rutgers last November.
“It seems like forever,” said head coach Mark Dantonio. “It’s been challenging. You go through things, but you persevere. Our football team has done that for quite awhile. It was a good thing for us and I believe it can take us a little bit higher.”
Sophomore quarterback Brian Lewerke overcame a slowish start to find a rhythm during a two-minute drill TD drive before halftime which put Michigan State up 14-3 at intermission and jump-started the young signal caller.
Lewerke went 22 of 33 for 250 yards with three touchdowns, no interceptions. He also rushed eight times for 69 yards, becoming a weapon on scrambles and option keepers.
“A couple of times I threw it at their feet or threw it behind them and I thought our receivers did a fantastic job today," Lewerke said. "I got a couple of starts last year so that helped a little bit with a jitters. I tried to turn them down and turn it into excitement on the field.”
Dantonio thought Lewerke played well, overall.
“He made plays with his feet. You can see that he can create," Dantonio said. "First game is tough. We had some low balls, had some high balls thrown. It’s not perfect but I thought what we did was handle our situation, handle our situation - I thought we did that. We kept playing, played for the next play. I thought our guys competed, played with enthusiasm. You get frustrated when things aren’t done exactly right, but we’ll press on.”
Madre London came off the bench to rush for 54 yards and one TD.
Starting tailback LJ Scott had a poor day, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry (15 attempts for 39 yards). He fumbled at the 1-yard line, aborting MSU’s opening drive. Then in the third quarter, he fumbled again, which was scooped and returned for Bowling Green’s only touchdown of the day.
“The strength of our football team is our tailbacks and we ran the ball pretty effectively, but we can’t turn it over,” Dantonio said. “Obviously the turnovers, you want to clean up. You can’t turn the ball over many times and win.”
Sophomore wide receiver Darrell Stewart showed star quality with a team-high six catches for 85 yards. He also ran three ties for 28 yards on jet sweeps.
Felton Davis added four catches for 35 yards and two touchdowns, including a one-handed grab in tight coverage that went for an 8-yard score.
Trishton Jackson had three catches for 41 yards, including a nice 21-yard third-down conversion which fueled a game-changing touchdown drive.
“I thought they performed well," co-offensive coordinator Dave Warner said of the new wide outs. "They had some good stats but hopefully this is just the tip of the iceberg for them. Those guys can continue to grow and be a very good group.”
Junior cornerback Tyson Smith, coming back from a stroke last fall, returned an interception 38 yards for a touchdown to give the Spartans a 35-3 lead in the third quarter.
"He's a great story to begin with," said co-defensive coordinator Mike Tressel. "The emotion that brings to the whole team is absolutely amazing. It was great to see him make a play."
Nine true freshmen played for the Spartans.
"They were ready," Tressel said. "They are also a special group of kids. There will be a couple more that you see over the next couple of weeks, I believe."
MSU held a 25-9 advantage in first downs and held Bowling Green to 2-of-13 on third down.
“We came out and we really balled today,” Frey said. “We talked about it all season that we were going to bring back the Spartan Dawg mentality. We did a really good job today and we are going to continue to improve.”
"I want to thank our fanbase," Dantonio said. "They showed up today, especially our studentsection. They came out and it was a great day to be a Spartan."
More coverage coming on SpartanMag.com.
Jim Comparoni | Publisher
EAST LANSING - Michigan State dominated the middle quarters in coasting to a 35-10 victory over Bowling Green, in the season opener Saturday at Spartan Stadium.
The Spartans were far from error-free on this day, but the final score helps begin the 2017 season on a sweet note, helping to reduce the sour memory of last year’s 3-9 season.
“After today, what happened in the past doesn’t matter anymore,” said senior linebacker Chris Frey. “We are a new team, new guys.
“There is a sigh of relief but we are just excited. We just celebrated hard in the locker room.”
That's the first time they've been able to do that since blowing out Rutgers last November.
“It seems like forever,” said head coach Mark Dantonio. “It’s been challenging. You go through things, but you persevere. Our football team has done that for quite awhile. It was a good thing for us and I believe it can take us a little bit higher.”
Sophomore quarterback Brian Lewerke overcame a slowish start to find a rhythm during a two-minute drill TD drive before halftime which put Michigan State up 14-3 at intermission and jump-started the young signal caller.
Lewerke went 22 of 33 for 250 yards with three touchdowns, no interceptions. He also rushed eight times for 69 yards, becoming a weapon on scrambles and option keepers.
“A couple of times I threw it at their feet or threw it behind them and I thought our receivers did a fantastic job today," Lewerke said. "I got a couple of starts last year so that helped a little bit with a jitters. I tried to turn them down and turn it into excitement on the field.”
Dantonio thought Lewerke played well, overall.
“He made plays with his feet. You can see that he can create," Dantonio said. "First game is tough. We had some low balls, had some high balls thrown. It’s not perfect but I thought what we did was handle our situation, handle our situation - I thought we did that. We kept playing, played for the next play. I thought our guys competed, played with enthusiasm. You get frustrated when things aren’t done exactly right, but we’ll press on.”
Madre London came off the bench to rush for 54 yards and one TD.
Starting tailback LJ Scott had a poor day, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry (15 attempts for 39 yards). He fumbled at the 1-yard line, aborting MSU’s opening drive. Then in the third quarter, he fumbled again, which was scooped and returned for Bowling Green’s only touchdown of the day.
“The strength of our football team is our tailbacks and we ran the ball pretty effectively, but we can’t turn it over,” Dantonio said. “Obviously the turnovers, you want to clean up. You can’t turn the ball over many times and win.”
Sophomore wide receiver Darrell Stewart showed star quality with a team-high six catches for 85 yards. He also ran three ties for 28 yards on jet sweeps.
Felton Davis added four catches for 35 yards and two touchdowns, including a one-handed grab in tight coverage that went for an 8-yard score.
Trishton Jackson had three catches for 41 yards, including a nice 21-yard third-down conversion which fueled a game-changing touchdown drive.
“I thought they performed well," co-offensive coordinator Dave Warner said of the new wide outs. "They had some good stats but hopefully this is just the tip of the iceberg for them. Those guys can continue to grow and be a very good group.”
Junior cornerback Tyson Smith, coming back from a stroke last fall, returned an interception 38 yards for a touchdown to give the Spartans a 35-3 lead in the third quarter.
"He's a great story to begin with," said co-defensive coordinator Mike Tressel. "The emotion that brings to the whole team is absolutely amazing. It was great to see him make a play."
Nine true freshmen played for the Spartans.
"They were ready," Tressel said. "They are also a special group of kids. There will be a couple more that you see over the next couple of weeks, I believe."
MSU held a 25-9 advantage in first downs and held Bowling Green to 2-of-13 on third down.
“We came out and we really balled today,” Frey said. “We talked about it all season that we were going to bring back the Spartan Dawg mentality. We did a really good job today and we are going to continue to improve.”
"I want to thank our fanbase," Dantonio said. "They showed up today, especially our studentsection. They came out and it was a great day to be a Spartan."
More coverage coming on SpartanMag.com.
New Spartan WR corps set to explode? By Ricardo Cooney
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
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New Spartan WR corps set to explode?
Ricardo Cooney | SpartanMag.com
Trishton Jackson
EAST LANSING - Michigan State wide receivers coach Terrence Samuel has been trying to contain the smile of a poker player with a winning hand when he’s been asked about the progress of the Spartans’ latest crop of pass-catching talent.
After a tumultuous offseason that cost the team some returning pass-catching depth, and graduation, MSU will enter their noontime season opener against MAC foe Bowling Green with a lot of questions at the wideout position
Namely, the questions surround three young men no one knows much about at the WR positions.
And with a new starting quarterback in redshirt sophomore Brian Lewerke throwing to them, well, once again, most Spartan fans are not going to know what to expect from MSU’s passing game until they actually see this year’s projected starters - junior Felton Davis III and sophomores Trishton Jackson and Darrell Stewart on the field, beginning today against the Falcons.
Despite that journey into the unknown, you’re led to believe when you talk to Samuel about this latest group - that also has redshirt freshman Cam Chambers and true freshmen Hunter Rison, Cody White and Laress Nelson as backups - that he is comfortable with who is behind MSU’s wide receivers curtain.
“This group? I feel really good about,” he said. “Of course, (we are talking about) the unknown but the way that they’ve prepared, their eagerness . . . you go into the meeting room and they’re bright-eyed and bushy-tailed wanting to learn the things. And that makes it fun because they’re asking the questions that you really feel good about because they’re processing things.
“So, it’s a different deal, where you’re not just teaching these guys the plays, you’re really teaching technique. They really want to learn technique and this is probably the fastest I’ve had a group learn technique and express the offense.
“In terms of Hunter, Cody and Laress, if they’re in the top six, I can see them plying this year.’’
Samuel said he made a mistake in recent years of not having enough receivers in the playing group, which left some of his players a bit fatigued during some stretches of some games. He wants to go deeper than just a group of three or four. A fifth and a sixth sounds likely. Rison, White and Chambers are the leading candidates for those roles, but Nelson, a little muscle ball who has been compared to Macgarrett Kings, could provide a unique skill set that puts him on the field as well.
Every since Samuel’s arrival in 2011, MSU has been able to develop a quality go-to target in the passing game.
Last season, it was R.J. Shelton. In previous seasons, Spartan fans have seen names like Tony Lippett, B.J. Cunningham, Aaron Burbridge and Devin Thomas take up the mantle to become the top dogs among the receiving group - sometimes after quiet beginnings to their careers.
This season, after a breakout performance in MSU’s annual spring game, Jackson seems poised to be this season’s top target.
The 6-foot-1, 179-pound native of West Bloomfield hauled in eight catches for 168 yards and looked smooth doing it, as he exhibited his the strength of his skill set: speed. But he knows more will be required of him this season.
“My expectations are me trying to be that guy,’’ Jackson said. “Me being the guy winning 50-50 balls and those are from the expectations of the coaches who expect me to win those 50-50 balls. Basically, this season, for me, is going to be about hard work, dedication and setting an example for the rest of my teammates. It’s about me knowing who I am and them knowing who I am and being able to count on me.
“I had to work on my physicality during the offseason because that was something the coaches said I needed to work on and I think I’ve done that. They know about my speed but with Coach D being my coach, he put me on blast about being physical so I had to show him that I could be more physical, that I can make that big block or that big catch in traffic.
“So now, it’s basically about me being able to do that all of the time out on the field.”
Dantonio publicly challenged Jackson to become a more well-rounded receiver, which meant becoming a better blocker, increasing his physicality.
“I know there’s linebackers out there that you don’t want to block sometimes but I know that I’m not going to play a lot if I don’t block those guys and with me transitioning to the outside, I’m going to have to block those safeties running downhill,” Jackson said. “So, that’s been my progress throughout this whole camp.”
As for his pass catching prowess, Jackson said: “It’s really not been about the speed of the game but how quickly you learn all of the plays because when you can do that you know where you have to be in certain spots and you know the angles, and that’s made it much easier to run away from linebackers and some of the safeties.’’
TALENTED BUT UNPROVEN
In terms of game experience, Jackson is part of a trio that combined for just 20 catches, 268 yards and two touchdowns last season. While appearing in 31 games combined last season, the group has just three starts among them, with Davis leading the way in production with 12 catches for 150 yards and one score in 2016.
While their combined numbers give pause and lead to wait-and-see mentality as all three are thrust into the pass-catching spotlight as starters during a schedule that includes tough road tests at Michigan and Ohio State, all three seem confident that the intangibles will carry them through
As far as Davis is concerned, it’s not just about his ability to catch passes that’s going to set himself apart from his opponents.
“Oh, I love blocking,” said the 6-foot-4, 195-pound Davis. “My high school coach told me, you’re going to catch passes 33 percent of the time. The other two-thirds, you’re blocking because it’s something that you’ve got to do. So the transition coming in and blocking was the smooth part. The only tough part about that was the strength because I came in small at 160 pounds because I really didn’t lift in high school. I was always in good position and knew the right place to be but this was just about being stronger, being able to lock onto somebody and not letting them go. So that’s just been my biggest focus, being able to make plays like that when it really counts.’’
Despite more unknowns than sure things, Samuel and his newly-minted starting trio continue to display calm and confidence.
“Even though we haven’t played a lot, we’ve been here and we’ve been through a lot,’’ said the 6-2, 210-pound Stewart. “Coach Sam knows the three of us and trusts us, so that means it’s our time to got out here and prove ourselves. So we know that we have to take pride in blocking or we’re not going to be out on the field. Before you know how to run a route, you learn how to block here at Michigan State and that’s a beautiful thing.
“In terms of us being successful as a group, we have to have confidence. Not being on the field as much, it’s been a lot about studying the plays, being a student of the game and applying that in situations in practice. I feel like we’ve done that, which means the transition should be easier because we know where we’re supposed to be and what we’re supposed to be doing. That’s why I go in and watch film all of the time now because when you’ve got it up there in your head, it’s just like muscle memory from there.’’
Still, that memory needs to translate into production on the field.
Last season, Shelton led the way with a respectable 789 yards but in the two seasons prior to that MSU had a receiver total 1,100 yards or more en route to first team All-Big Ten finishes for Burbridge in 2015 and Lippett and 2014.
Samuel believes this group, despite their youth, has all of the potential needed to help reintroduce MSU’s passing game as a strength of the offense.
“You’re talking about great skill,” Samuel said. “I’ve got size and I’ve got a variety of skill sets to play with but their enthusiasm is one of the best I’ve been around. They love playing, they love competing everyday and it’s taken some gray out of my hair. I love their approach to the game.
“When I had Bennie (Fowler) and I had Keith (Mumphery) and I had Tony (Lippett), they were learning how to prepare. These guys enjoy preparing. Their love for the game, their enthusiasm for the game has sped up their processes. So they’re not just talking about the routes because they know what they’re doing. Now, it’s just how do they maximize their opportunity in that play.’’
Cody White has been outstanding in preseason camp. The freshman's future is bright at MSU.
Freshman Hunter Rison is expected to break into the playing group this year as well.
Edit
Ricardo Cooney | SpartanMag.com
Trishton Jackson
EAST LANSING - Michigan State wide receivers coach Terrence Samuel has been trying to contain the smile of a poker player with a winning hand when he’s been asked about the progress of the Spartans’ latest crop of pass-catching talent.
After a tumultuous offseason that cost the team some returning pass-catching depth, and graduation, MSU will enter their noontime season opener against MAC foe Bowling Green with a lot of questions at the wideout position
Namely, the questions surround three young men no one knows much about at the WR positions.
And with a new starting quarterback in redshirt sophomore Brian Lewerke throwing to them, well, once again, most Spartan fans are not going to know what to expect from MSU’s passing game until they actually see this year’s projected starters - junior Felton Davis III and sophomores Trishton Jackson and Darrell Stewart on the field, beginning today against the Falcons.
Despite that journey into the unknown, you’re led to believe when you talk to Samuel about this latest group - that also has redshirt freshman Cam Chambers and true freshmen Hunter Rison, Cody White and Laress Nelson as backups - that he is comfortable with who is behind MSU’s wide receivers curtain.
“This group? I feel really good about,” he said. “Of course, (we are talking about) the unknown but the way that they’ve prepared, their eagerness . . . you go into the meeting room and they’re bright-eyed and bushy-tailed wanting to learn the things. And that makes it fun because they’re asking the questions that you really feel good about because they’re processing things.
“So, it’s a different deal, where you’re not just teaching these guys the plays, you’re really teaching technique. They really want to learn technique and this is probably the fastest I’ve had a group learn technique and express the offense.
“In terms of Hunter, Cody and Laress, if they’re in the top six, I can see them plying this year.’’
Samuel said he made a mistake in recent years of not having enough receivers in the playing group, which left some of his players a bit fatigued during some stretches of some games. He wants to go deeper than just a group of three or four. A fifth and a sixth sounds likely. Rison, White and Chambers are the leading candidates for those roles, but Nelson, a little muscle ball who has been compared to Macgarrett Kings, could provide a unique skill set that puts him on the field as well.
Every since Samuel’s arrival in 2011, MSU has been able to develop a quality go-to target in the passing game.
Last season, it was R.J. Shelton. In previous seasons, Spartan fans have seen names like Tony Lippett, B.J. Cunningham, Aaron Burbridge and Devin Thomas take up the mantle to become the top dogs among the receiving group - sometimes after quiet beginnings to their careers.
This season, after a breakout performance in MSU’s annual spring game, Jackson seems poised to be this season’s top target.
The 6-foot-1, 179-pound native of West Bloomfield hauled in eight catches for 168 yards and looked smooth doing it, as he exhibited his the strength of his skill set: speed. But he knows more will be required of him this season.
“My expectations are me trying to be that guy,’’ Jackson said. “Me being the guy winning 50-50 balls and those are from the expectations of the coaches who expect me to win those 50-50 balls. Basically, this season, for me, is going to be about hard work, dedication and setting an example for the rest of my teammates. It’s about me knowing who I am and them knowing who I am and being able to count on me.
“I had to work on my physicality during the offseason because that was something the coaches said I needed to work on and I think I’ve done that. They know about my speed but with Coach D being my coach, he put me on blast about being physical so I had to show him that I could be more physical, that I can make that big block or that big catch in traffic.
“So now, it’s basically about me being able to do that all of the time out on the field.”
Dantonio publicly challenged Jackson to become a more well-rounded receiver, which meant becoming a better blocker, increasing his physicality.
“I know there’s linebackers out there that you don’t want to block sometimes but I know that I’m not going to play a lot if I don’t block those guys and with me transitioning to the outside, I’m going to have to block those safeties running downhill,” Jackson said. “So, that’s been my progress throughout this whole camp.”
As for his pass catching prowess, Jackson said: “It’s really not been about the speed of the game but how quickly you learn all of the plays because when you can do that you know where you have to be in certain spots and you know the angles, and that’s made it much easier to run away from linebackers and some of the safeties.’’
TALENTED BUT UNPROVEN
In terms of game experience, Jackson is part of a trio that combined for just 20 catches, 268 yards and two touchdowns last season. While appearing in 31 games combined last season, the group has just three starts among them, with Davis leading the way in production with 12 catches for 150 yards and one score in 2016.
While their combined numbers give pause and lead to wait-and-see mentality as all three are thrust into the pass-catching spotlight as starters during a schedule that includes tough road tests at Michigan and Ohio State, all three seem confident that the intangibles will carry them through
As far as Davis is concerned, it’s not just about his ability to catch passes that’s going to set himself apart from his opponents.
“Oh, I love blocking,” said the 6-foot-4, 195-pound Davis. “My high school coach told me, you’re going to catch passes 33 percent of the time. The other two-thirds, you’re blocking because it’s something that you’ve got to do. So the transition coming in and blocking was the smooth part. The only tough part about that was the strength because I came in small at 160 pounds because I really didn’t lift in high school. I was always in good position and knew the right place to be but this was just about being stronger, being able to lock onto somebody and not letting them go. So that’s just been my biggest focus, being able to make plays like that when it really counts.’’
Despite more unknowns than sure things, Samuel and his newly-minted starting trio continue to display calm and confidence.
“Even though we haven’t played a lot, we’ve been here and we’ve been through a lot,’’ said the 6-2, 210-pound Stewart. “Coach Sam knows the three of us and trusts us, so that means it’s our time to got out here and prove ourselves. So we know that we have to take pride in blocking or we’re not going to be out on the field. Before you know how to run a route, you learn how to block here at Michigan State and that’s a beautiful thing.
“In terms of us being successful as a group, we have to have confidence. Not being on the field as much, it’s been a lot about studying the plays, being a student of the game and applying that in situations in practice. I feel like we’ve done that, which means the transition should be easier because we know where we’re supposed to be and what we’re supposed to be doing. That’s why I go in and watch film all of the time now because when you’ve got it up there in your head, it’s just like muscle memory from there.’’
Still, that memory needs to translate into production on the field.
Last season, Shelton led the way with a respectable 789 yards but in the two seasons prior to that MSU had a receiver total 1,100 yards or more en route to first team All-Big Ten finishes for Burbridge in 2015 and Lippett and 2014.
Samuel believes this group, despite their youth, has all of the potential needed to help reintroduce MSU’s passing game as a strength of the offense.
“You’re talking about great skill,” Samuel said. “I’ve got size and I’ve got a variety of skill sets to play with but their enthusiasm is one of the best I’ve been around. They love playing, they love competing everyday and it’s taken some gray out of my hair. I love their approach to the game.
“When I had Bennie (Fowler) and I had Keith (Mumphery) and I had Tony (Lippett), they were learning how to prepare. These guys enjoy preparing. Their love for the game, their enthusiasm for the game has sped up their processes. So they’re not just talking about the routes because they know what they’re doing. Now, it’s just how do they maximize their opportunity in that play.’’
Cody White has been outstanding in preseason camp. The freshman's future is bright at MSU.
Freshman Hunter Rison is expected to break into the playing group this year as well.
Edit
Rico Cooney's game overview: MSU vs Bowling Green
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
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'Very Ready to Go'
Ricardo Cooney | SpartanMag.com
EAST LANSING - After one of the worst seasons in Michigan State football history, after a tumultuous offseason that saw the loss of more than 10 underclassmen and after promising to rebuild the character and camaraderie of what was viewed as a fractured locker room, the Spartans take to the football field with renewed hopes and vigor to start 2017.
As it stands, it would be easy to call MSU’s noontime season-opening matchup with Bowling Green at Spartan Stadium the beginning of “The Redemption Tour.’’
But redemption comes in many forms and for the Spartans, and with all due respect to the Falcons - who themselves are trying to regain some momentum after a 4-8 finish in 2016 where they gave up 77 points twice in losses - the name on the other team’s jersey won’t matter much on Saturday.
“We're very, very ready to go, I guess you'd say. It's been a long time coming,’’ MSU head coach Mark Dantonio said. “We've sat and waited for about nine months for this opportunity. So we'll be ready. This will give us a starting point, one way are the other.
“Again, I don't really care who we play in the first game. Our football team is right for it. The mentality of our football team is right, and that's what I'm concerned about. Mostly what I'm concerned about is our football team.’’
Bowling Green may have the same idea.
After suffering through a seven-game losing streak, BGSU did finish last season on a high note with three straight wins but by then, much like MSU, it was just a matter of finishing out a season that had gone horribly wrong.
So this opener is more about regaining what was lost - for both teams
For MSU’s seniors like running back Gerald Holmes, who along with sophomore linebacker Joe Bachie will serve as game captains on Saturday, much of the Spartans’ success this season will not only be tied to MSU’s execution on the field but how the program has recovered from what was perceived as a group that could just never get on the same page last season.
“The biggest difference coming into camp this season was the enthusiasm and trying to build that family bond,” Holmes said. “We tried to encourage guys to be closer and be more family oriented but also understand that if you’ve got to rip a guy or cut into a guy about something, you can do it. Last year, I felt like a lot of guys didn’t understand their place and weren’t comfortable about approaching a guy about certain things. Now, I feel like we’ve kind of opened the door and opened the floor, that no matter who you are or what level, you can be confronted about what needs to be done because in the end, we’re trying to win games here.’’
If that’s the case, the Spartans have taken that huge step in shrugging off the misfortunes of last season and are ready to move forward to orchestrate a successful season.
“I think the (bad) taste of last season is out. Now, it’s time to show what we’ve been working for,’’ Holmes added. “It’s the time to have a fresh mind, it’s onto the 2017 season.’’
OFFENSIVE SKILL: NEW FACES
In order to do that on the field though, the Spartans will be depending on a large number of fresh faces to change the narrative of the season.
With a significant number of players who have seen little or no time as starters, much of this team’s success will depend on how quickly all of those inexperienced plug-ins can make their names heard on both sides of the ball.
One of those fresh faces will come at quarterback as MSU introduces 6-foot-3, 212-pound redshirt sophomore Brian Lewerke to the offensive huddle full-time.
Lewerke, who played in four games last season - two as a starter before suffering a broken tibia against Michigan that ended his season - finished 31-of-57 for 381 yards and two touchdowns and one interception in spot duty in 2016.
The spot duty is over. Lewerke is the guy.
Despite the fact that MSU’s signal caller will be required to mature on the job, he will have experience lined up behind him and beside him in the run game.
Junior LJ Scott, who has earned spots on the Maxwell Player of the Year and Doak Walker Running Back of the Year watch lists, leads a trio of runners after gaining 994 yards on 184 carries last year. He scored six touchdowns in 2016.
Scott’s efforts in returning MSU’s run game to prominence will be aided by Holmes and redshirt junior Madre London, two running backs capable of being starters in most major Division I backfields.
With that being said, expect the Spartans to lean heavily on the run game considering the three projected starting wide receivers - junior Felton Davis III and sophomores Trishton Jackson and Darrell Stewart Jr. - do not have much experience.
Numbers-wise, Davis leads the way after catching 12 passes for 150 yards and touchdown last season.
Despite MSU’s inexperience at the wideout spot, Jackson, who opened eyes with a breakout performance in the annual Green and White game, said the Spartans will not be focusing on what others may see as deficiencies.
“We’ve got, not a slogan but a board that’s in every room and it’s, ‘Focus on the Moment,’’’ Jackson said. “Which means we’re trying to put everything in the past and just focus on little things. So, like this week, it’s just Bowling Green. This is about meeting the obstacles in our way and the goals that we set because we want to get to Indianapolis (the Big Ten Championship). All the other stuff we did in the past is in the past now and we’re just moving on to this week.
“We all came into camp with the mindset of just being ready to grind and that’s been our motto, ‘grind and grind hard,’ and that something’s going to come out of it.’’
MSU will also be breaking in a new starting tight end as well with junior Matt Sokol taking over the reigns for a very dependable and sometimes game-changing target in the graduated Josiah Price.
IN THE TRENCHES:
The offensive line - which will be anchored by senior center and captain Brian Allen, a Rimington and Outland Trophy watch list candidate - will also feature a new right tackle in redshirt freshman Luke Campbell and three others in left tackle Cole Chewins, right guard David Beedle and left guard Tyler Higby, who have all played prior to this season but who will be looked upon to provide much more of a tone-setting persona up front in the Spartans’ offense.
“We definitely have a responsibility because the teams goes as we go,’’ said Higby, a 6-5, 293-pound sophomore, who played in 10 games last season with six of those being starts. “So, if we set the tone early, go hard, go fast and know what we’re doing, I think it bodes well for the rest of the team.’’
BOWLING GREEN DEFENSE:
MSU’s revamped offense will be facing a Bowling Green defense that is looking to improve on last year’s numbers that had the Falcons 10th in the MAC, as they surrendered 464.2 yards a game to their opponents.
The Falcons’ second- and third- leading tacklers from last season were expected to lead the defense this year. But junior safety Jamari Bozeman is out with an upper leg in jury.
Bozeman collected 71 stops last season and added three picks and six pass breakups, earning third team All-MAC honors.
Junior linebacker Brandon Harris will need to pick up some slack.
Harris had 59 tackles last year, which included three for loss, and had two interceptions and one sack.
The Falcons will also be relying on the presence of senior defensive tackle Gus Schwieterman who led the team last season in tackles for loss with 12, which included five sacks.
BG also has a potent weapon in redshirt senior All-American punter Joseph Davidson, who will once again open the on the Ray Guy Award Preseason Watch List
BOWLING GREEN DEFENSE
Offensively, the Falcons will be relying on sophomore QB James Morgan, senior running backs Josh Ceveland and Donovan Wilson and junior wideout Scott Miller.
Morgan, who started who started five games and played in all 12 games last season, threw for 2,082 yards, completing 183 of his 326 pass attempts for 16 TDs. He averaged 173.5 yards a game but also tossed 15 INTs
In the run game, Cleveland collected 649 yards on 101 carries with two TDs, while Wilson added 503 yards on 110 carries with five TDs. BGSU graduated a 1,000-yard rusher.
Miller was first team All-MAC performer at WR, hauling in 74 catches for 968 yards, while scoring 10 TDs.
“Mike Jinks is the head football coach there, comes from Texas Tech, so they're going to have an up-tempo type offense, throw the ball down the field,’’ Dantonio said. “Scott Miller, No. 21 is a go-to guy. They've got some other outstanding wide receivers, as well.’’
Stopping that attack, which rolled up 406.9 yards a game last season, becomes the responsibility of a Spartan defense that led by senior captain and linebacker Chris Frey, the Spartans’ leading tackler last season.
Frey totaled 96 stops last season, including four for loss and also had a forced fumble.
His efforts, as MSU looks to move to 3-0 all-time against BGSU, will be aided by junior ‘star’ linebacker Andrew Dowell, who returns as MSU’s fourth-leading tackler after tallying 67 stops, which included three for loss.
Dowell also had one sack, one interception, three pass breakups and six QB hits.
Additionally, junior safety Khari Willis, who totaled 30 tackles and two pass breakups last season and redshirt sophomore nose tackle Raequan Williams, who had 28 tackles, including five for loss, will also be expected to take their games to a higher level for a Spartan defense looking to improve on the 364.8 yards and 27.8 points a game the team surrendered last season.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
MSU: With a fairly new starting quarterback and three inexperienced wide receivers stepping into the spotlight, the Spartans’ passing game will be under scrutiny. Since Dantonio’s arrival 10 seasons ago, MSU has seemingly always been able to develop a go-to option in the passing game but many questions still need to be answered in terms of how ready this group is for primetime play. Also, to a man, the players have promised a new attitude and approach for the 2017 season. After a series of failed executions late in games last year, it will be interesting to see what kind of character this unit has developed in preparation of eradicating all vestiges of last season’s three win debacle.
BGSU: The Falcons, despite losing eight of their first nine games, closed strong in 2016 with three straight wins. So coming into fall camp, the battle cry had to be about how do they build on the momentum created last November with wins over Akron, Kent State and Buffalo. Opening their season against a respected Big Ten opponent will serve as a great measuring stick in terms of what the Falcons are going to be able to do to turn things around in 2017. While it’s only the first game, Bowling Green has a chance to establish what kind of the team they want to be and what kind of team they need to be in order to erase the memories of a 2016 team that surrendered 77 points twice in losses to Ohio State and Memphis
Edit
Ricardo Cooney | SpartanMag.com
EAST LANSING - After one of the worst seasons in Michigan State football history, after a tumultuous offseason that saw the loss of more than 10 underclassmen and after promising to rebuild the character and camaraderie of what was viewed as a fractured locker room, the Spartans take to the football field with renewed hopes and vigor to start 2017.
As it stands, it would be easy to call MSU’s noontime season-opening matchup with Bowling Green at Spartan Stadium the beginning of “The Redemption Tour.’’
But redemption comes in many forms and for the Spartans, and with all due respect to the Falcons - who themselves are trying to regain some momentum after a 4-8 finish in 2016 where they gave up 77 points twice in losses - the name on the other team’s jersey won’t matter much on Saturday.
“We're very, very ready to go, I guess you'd say. It's been a long time coming,’’ MSU head coach Mark Dantonio said. “We've sat and waited for about nine months for this opportunity. So we'll be ready. This will give us a starting point, one way are the other.
“Again, I don't really care who we play in the first game. Our football team is right for it. The mentality of our football team is right, and that's what I'm concerned about. Mostly what I'm concerned about is our football team.’’
Bowling Green may have the same idea.
After suffering through a seven-game losing streak, BGSU did finish last season on a high note with three straight wins but by then, much like MSU, it was just a matter of finishing out a season that had gone horribly wrong.
So this opener is more about regaining what was lost - for both teams
For MSU’s seniors like running back Gerald Holmes, who along with sophomore linebacker Joe Bachie will serve as game captains on Saturday, much of the Spartans’ success this season will not only be tied to MSU’s execution on the field but how the program has recovered from what was perceived as a group that could just never get on the same page last season.
“The biggest difference coming into camp this season was the enthusiasm and trying to build that family bond,” Holmes said. “We tried to encourage guys to be closer and be more family oriented but also understand that if you’ve got to rip a guy or cut into a guy about something, you can do it. Last year, I felt like a lot of guys didn’t understand their place and weren’t comfortable about approaching a guy about certain things. Now, I feel like we’ve kind of opened the door and opened the floor, that no matter who you are or what level, you can be confronted about what needs to be done because in the end, we’re trying to win games here.’’
If that’s the case, the Spartans have taken that huge step in shrugging off the misfortunes of last season and are ready to move forward to orchestrate a successful season.
“I think the (bad) taste of last season is out. Now, it’s time to show what we’ve been working for,’’ Holmes added. “It’s the time to have a fresh mind, it’s onto the 2017 season.’’
OFFENSIVE SKILL: NEW FACES
In order to do that on the field though, the Spartans will be depending on a large number of fresh faces to change the narrative of the season.
With a significant number of players who have seen little or no time as starters, much of this team’s success will depend on how quickly all of those inexperienced plug-ins can make their names heard on both sides of the ball.
One of those fresh faces will come at quarterback as MSU introduces 6-foot-3, 212-pound redshirt sophomore Brian Lewerke to the offensive huddle full-time.
Lewerke, who played in four games last season - two as a starter before suffering a broken tibia against Michigan that ended his season - finished 31-of-57 for 381 yards and two touchdowns and one interception in spot duty in 2016.
The spot duty is over. Lewerke is the guy.
Despite the fact that MSU’s signal caller will be required to mature on the job, he will have experience lined up behind him and beside him in the run game.
Junior LJ Scott, who has earned spots on the Maxwell Player of the Year and Doak Walker Running Back of the Year watch lists, leads a trio of runners after gaining 994 yards on 184 carries last year. He scored six touchdowns in 2016.
Scott’s efforts in returning MSU’s run game to prominence will be aided by Holmes and redshirt junior Madre London, two running backs capable of being starters in most major Division I backfields.
With that being said, expect the Spartans to lean heavily on the run game considering the three projected starting wide receivers - junior Felton Davis III and sophomores Trishton Jackson and Darrell Stewart Jr. - do not have much experience.
Numbers-wise, Davis leads the way after catching 12 passes for 150 yards and touchdown last season.
Despite MSU’s inexperience at the wideout spot, Jackson, who opened eyes with a breakout performance in the annual Green and White game, said the Spartans will not be focusing on what others may see as deficiencies.
“We’ve got, not a slogan but a board that’s in every room and it’s, ‘Focus on the Moment,’’’ Jackson said. “Which means we’re trying to put everything in the past and just focus on little things. So, like this week, it’s just Bowling Green. This is about meeting the obstacles in our way and the goals that we set because we want to get to Indianapolis (the Big Ten Championship). All the other stuff we did in the past is in the past now and we’re just moving on to this week.
“We all came into camp with the mindset of just being ready to grind and that’s been our motto, ‘grind and grind hard,’ and that something’s going to come out of it.’’
MSU will also be breaking in a new starting tight end as well with junior Matt Sokol taking over the reigns for a very dependable and sometimes game-changing target in the graduated Josiah Price.
IN THE TRENCHES:
The offensive line - which will be anchored by senior center and captain Brian Allen, a Rimington and Outland Trophy watch list candidate - will also feature a new right tackle in redshirt freshman Luke Campbell and three others in left tackle Cole Chewins, right guard David Beedle and left guard Tyler Higby, who have all played prior to this season but who will be looked upon to provide much more of a tone-setting persona up front in the Spartans’ offense.
“We definitely have a responsibility because the teams goes as we go,’’ said Higby, a 6-5, 293-pound sophomore, who played in 10 games last season with six of those being starts. “So, if we set the tone early, go hard, go fast and know what we’re doing, I think it bodes well for the rest of the team.’’
BOWLING GREEN DEFENSE:
MSU’s revamped offense will be facing a Bowling Green defense that is looking to improve on last year’s numbers that had the Falcons 10th in the MAC, as they surrendered 464.2 yards a game to their opponents.
The Falcons’ second- and third- leading tacklers from last season were expected to lead the defense this year. But junior safety Jamari Bozeman is out with an upper leg in jury.
Bozeman collected 71 stops last season and added three picks and six pass breakups, earning third team All-MAC honors.
Junior linebacker Brandon Harris will need to pick up some slack.
Harris had 59 tackles last year, which included three for loss, and had two interceptions and one sack.
The Falcons will also be relying on the presence of senior defensive tackle Gus Schwieterman who led the team last season in tackles for loss with 12, which included five sacks.
BG also has a potent weapon in redshirt senior All-American punter Joseph Davidson, who will once again open the on the Ray Guy Award Preseason Watch List
BOWLING GREEN DEFENSE
Offensively, the Falcons will be relying on sophomore QB James Morgan, senior running backs Josh Ceveland and Donovan Wilson and junior wideout Scott Miller.
Morgan, who started who started five games and played in all 12 games last season, threw for 2,082 yards, completing 183 of his 326 pass attempts for 16 TDs. He averaged 173.5 yards a game but also tossed 15 INTs
In the run game, Cleveland collected 649 yards on 101 carries with two TDs, while Wilson added 503 yards on 110 carries with five TDs. BGSU graduated a 1,000-yard rusher.
Miller was first team All-MAC performer at WR, hauling in 74 catches for 968 yards, while scoring 10 TDs.
“Mike Jinks is the head football coach there, comes from Texas Tech, so they're going to have an up-tempo type offense, throw the ball down the field,’’ Dantonio said. “Scott Miller, No. 21 is a go-to guy. They've got some other outstanding wide receivers, as well.’’
Stopping that attack, which rolled up 406.9 yards a game last season, becomes the responsibility of a Spartan defense that led by senior captain and linebacker Chris Frey, the Spartans’ leading tackler last season.
Frey totaled 96 stops last season, including four for loss and also had a forced fumble.
His efforts, as MSU looks to move to 3-0 all-time against BGSU, will be aided by junior ‘star’ linebacker Andrew Dowell, who returns as MSU’s fourth-leading tackler after tallying 67 stops, which included three for loss.
Dowell also had one sack, one interception, three pass breakups and six QB hits.
Additionally, junior safety Khari Willis, who totaled 30 tackles and two pass breakups last season and redshirt sophomore nose tackle Raequan Williams, who had 28 tackles, including five for loss, will also be expected to take their games to a higher level for a Spartan defense looking to improve on the 364.8 yards and 27.8 points a game the team surrendered last season.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
MSU: With a fairly new starting quarterback and three inexperienced wide receivers stepping into the spotlight, the Spartans’ passing game will be under scrutiny. Since Dantonio’s arrival 10 seasons ago, MSU has seemingly always been able to develop a go-to option in the passing game but many questions still need to be answered in terms of how ready this group is for primetime play. Also, to a man, the players have promised a new attitude and approach for the 2017 season. After a series of failed executions late in games last year, it will be interesting to see what kind of character this unit has developed in preparation of eradicating all vestiges of last season’s three win debacle.
BGSU: The Falcons, despite losing eight of their first nine games, closed strong in 2016 with three straight wins. So coming into fall camp, the battle cry had to be about how do they build on the momentum created last November with wins over Akron, Kent State and Buffalo. Opening their season against a respected Big Ten opponent will serve as a great measuring stick in terms of what the Falcons are going to be able to do to turn things around in 2017. While it’s only the first game, Bowling Green has a chance to establish what kind of the team they want to be and what kind of team they need to be in order to erase the memories of a 2016 team that surrendered 77 points twice in losses to Ohio State and Memphis
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MEN'S BASKETBALL Izzo is the Master of March (Long, with lots of math)
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
- 15 Replies
Last night a thread appeared that brought up the question of whether John Calipari has over or under achieved as a coach. As luck would have it, I happen to have been working on some tournament data that can help to answer that question. As was pointed out in that thread, there is a well-established metric out there known as PASE (Performance Against Seed Expectation). But, I have also developed 2 additional metrics that I think add some new value to this discussion, and I would like to share them (and my large data set) with the board today.
(WARNING: Math Alert!)
The math behind my metric is slightly different than PASE, as the PASE metric considers the performance of each team per tournament, while my metric considers each tournament game individually. For example, based on the historical data since the 64 team expansion in 1985, 1-seeds win, on average, 3.36 games per tournament. So, if a 1-seed wins 5 games (makes the title game), that team won 1.64 more games than average, so that team has a PASE of 1.64 for that tournament. In my metrics, I instead use the expected value of wins for any given game. For example, 1-seeds win 80% of all of their tournament games (444-112 since 1985). In other words, the expected value of wins per game for a 1-seed overall is 0.80. Mathematically, for each game a 1-seed wins, that team gets 0.2 “points” (1 minus the expected value) and for every game a 1-seed loses, that team loses 0.8 “points”. For example, if a team has played 10 games total as a 1-seed, but only won 7 of those games, their score is -1.0 (7*0.2 - 3*0.8 = -1), but if they won 9 of 10, their score is +1.0 (9*0.2 - 1*0.8=1).
My expected-value-based metrics are highly correlated to PASE, but my metrics are a bit more conservative. They punish a team less for getting upset than PASE does and generally rewards a team less for a deep run. My metrics also have some mathematical advantages such as the total sum for all 606 coaches to have made an appearance in March Madness since seeding began in 1979 is exactly zero, as is the sum for all 1-seeds, etc. Part of the reason for this is that my expected-value metrics tacitly assume that the total tournament games played by each coach is fixed, while PASE takes into account the loss of potential wins down the road. For example, MSU’s loss to MTSU last year resulted in a PASE “penalty” of -2.37 due to the loss of potential 2nd and 3rd round wins which a 2-seed is favored to win. In the expected-value-based system, a team can never be penalized more than one game per tournament. So, they measure slightly different things.
My first metric is based on the historical winning percentage of each seed in each game. For example, as stated above, 1-seeds win 80% of all of their tournament games, and an earlier version of this metric used just this fact. While this is true, they obviously have won 100% of all 1st round games and the win percentage goes down to only 60% from the Regional Final on. My first metric considers the winning percentage / expected value of each seed as a function of round. For examples, 1-seeds have an expected value of 1.0 wins in 1st round games (since they have never lost), 0.85 in 2nd round games, 0.8 in 3rd round games, and roughly 0.6 in the regional final on. For a given tournament or career, it is a simple matter of comparing the results of each game (win or lose) to the expected value and the add it all up (similar to the example in the previous paragraph.) Since all metrics need to have snappy acronyms, I call this metric the Performance Against Round Independent Seed (PARIS) and its value is essentially the number of wins above or below average compared to all other coaches. The R-squared correlation to PASE is 0.93, so they give very similar results, although PASE is almost always larger in value.
The second metric I developed is mathematically similar to PARIS, but it takes into consideration one additional important factor, and that is the idea that not all tournament paths are created equally. For example, in 2000, MSU as a 1-seed faced the toughest possible path to the Final Four in playing a 16-seed, 8-seed, 4-seed, and a 2-seed while in 2001, MSU made the Final Four by beating a 16-seed, 9-seed, 12-seed, and an 11-seed. The PASE and PARIS metric would treat each of these tournament runs equally. However, in my opinion, you can more accurately account for this “luck of the draw” by considering the expected value of each game based on the differential in seed between the two teams. For example, a 1-seed playing a 4-seed has a differential of 3, while a 1-seed playing a 12-seed has a differential of 11. As I observed a few years ago, if you plot the probability of victory (i.e. the expected value) for all games in the tournament vs. seed differential, the plot is surprisingly linear (see below), although there are some noticeable biases, specifically, 1-seeds always do a little better than the full regression would suggest.
. But, I have also developed 2 additional metrics that I think add some new value to this discussion, and I would like to share them (and my large data set) with the board today. (WARNING: Math Alert!) The math behind my metric is slightly different than PASE, as the PASE metric considers the performance of each team per tournament, while my metric considers each tournament game individually. For example, based on the historical data since the 64 team expansion in 1985, 1-seeds win, on average, 3.36 games per tournament. So, if a 1-seed wins 5 games (makes the title game), that team won 1.64 more games than average, so that team has a PASE of 1.64 for that tournament. In my metrics, I instead use the expected value of wins for any given game. For example, 1-seeds win 80% of all of their tournament games (444-112 since 1985). In other words, the expected value of wins per game for a 1-seed overall is 0.80. Mathematically, for each game a 1-seed wins, that team gets 0.2 “points” (1 minus the expected value) and for every game a 1-seed loses, that team loses 0.8 “points”. For example, if a team has played 10 games total as a 1-seed, but only won 7 of those games, their score is -1.0 (7*0.2 - 3*0.8 = -1), but if they won 9 of 10, their score is +1.0 (9*0.2 - 1*0.8=1). My expected-value-based metrics are highly correlated to PASE, but my metrics are a bit more conservative. They punish a team less for getting upset than PASE does and generally rewards a team less for a deep run. My metrics also have some mathematical advantages such as the total sum for all 606 coaches to have made an appearance in March Madness since seeding began in 1979 is exactly zero, as is the sum for all 1-seeds, etc. Part of the reason for this is that my expected-value metrics tacitly assume that the total tournament games played by each coach is fixed, while PASE takes into account the loss of potential wins down the road. For example, MSU’s loss to MTSU last year resulted in a PASE “penalty” of -2.37 due to the loss of potential 2nd and 3rd round wins which a 2-seed is favored to win. In the expected-value-based system, a team can never be penalized more than one game per tournament. So, they measure slightly different things. My first metric is based on the historical winning percentage of each seed in each game. For example, as stated above, 1-seeds win 80% of all of their tournament games, and an earlier version of this metric used just this fact. While this is true, they obviously have won 100% of all 1st round games and the win percentage goes down to only 60% from the Regional Final on. My first metric considers the winning percentage / expected value of each seed as a function of round. For examples, 1-seeds have an expected value of 1.0 wins in 1st round games (since they have never lost), 0.85 in 2nd round games, 0.8 in 3rd round games, and roughly 0.6 in the regional final on. For a given tournament or career, it is a simple matter of comparing the results of each game (win or lose) to the expected value and the add it all up (similar to the example in the previous paragraph.) Since all metrics need to have snappy acronyms, I call this metric the Performance Against Round Independent Seed (PARIS) and its value is essentially the number of wins above or below average compared to all other coaches. The R-squared correlation to PASE is 0.93, so they give very similar results, although PASE is almost always larger in value. The second metric I developed is mathematically similar to PARIS, but it takes into consideration one additional important factor, and that is the idea that not all tournament paths are created equally. For example, in 2000, MSU as a 1-seed faced the toughest possible path to the Final Four in playing a 16-seed, 8-seed, 4-seed, and a 2-seed while in 2001, MSU made the Final Four by beating a 16-seed, 9-seed, 12-seed, and an 11-seed. The PASE and PARIS metric would treat each of these tournament runs equally. However, in my opinion, you can more accurately account for this “luck of the draw” by considering the expected value of each game based on the differential in seed between the two teams. For example, a 1-seed playing a 4-seed has a differential of 3, while a 1-seed playing a 12-seed has a differential of 11. As I observed a few years ago, if you plot the probability of victory (i.e. the expected value) for all games in the tournament vs. seed differential, the plot is surprisingly linear (see below), although there are some noticeable biases, specifically, 1-seeds always do a little better than the full regression would suggest. In an earlier version of my analysis, I simply used the linear fit, but I have updated the metric to instead consider the exact expected value of all possible seed combination based on historical tournament data. I call this metric the Performance Against seed Differential (PAD) Of course, you can get into trouble with small sample sizes (such as the odd fact that 2-seeds are only 1-4 against 5-seeds), but in general I assume that the largeness of the overall dataset will make these anomalies even out. Finally, I also find it useful to tabulate formally the actual cumulative deviation from the seed that a team should face along their tournament path relative to "chalk". I call this factor, LOTD (Luck of the Draw). Continuing the example from above, for MSU’s pre-Final Four run in 2000, the LOTD was zero (not at all lucky), but in 2001, is was 18 (very, very lucky). Moving forward I now present the PASE, PARIS, and PAD data for coaches back to 1979. PASE is the established metric, so I want to show that for reference to the work of others, PAD is what I think is most useful, and PARIS is a kind of bridge between the two: it is mathematically similar to PAD but philosophically similar to PASE. As you might imagine, plotting the three metrics for all 606 coaches is a bit unwieldy. The full histogram looks, not surprisingly, like a bell curve (see bottom right panel below), as the vast majority of coaches have only made a handful of tournament appearances. So, in order to make things a bit easier to interpret, I have only plotted the metrics for the 128 coaches who have played at least 10 tournament games. Finally, for each of the four metrics in my study (PASE, PARIS, PAD) I plotted both the total cumulative value of each metric as well as the per tournament value. So, enough of all that, it is time to UNLEASH THE HISTOGRAMS: There is a lot to unpack here, and I think the best way is to present my overall impressions: 1) Tom Izzo is still the Master of March: As the charts show, Izzo is the currently leader in all three cumulative metrics. More than that, Izzo’s current PAD of 8.09 is higher than any other coach at any other time in history with the sole exception of Denny Crum in 1997 when he hit 8.68 with Louisville. Izzo’s per year stats are not quite as elite, but he is still in the Top 10 in these metrics and the vast majority of coaches ahead of him benefited from generally small samples sizes as well as a bit of luck. A quick look at some of Izzo’s other stats shows the reasons why his scores are so high. He is over 0.500 as an underdog in the tournament and holds the record for wins as an underdog with 14. The next best coaches only have 11 (Massimino, Olson, and Boeheim). Izzo also rarely gets upset (only 6 times) and thus has won just a shade below 85% of his games as a favorite (good enough for 7th place among coaches with 10 or more tournaments). Izzo has also made the Sweet 16 in 65% of his tournament appearances and the Final Four in 35%, which is second only to Coach K for coaches with more than 10 attempts. The only knock on Izzo, it that his performance at the Final Four is not great (only 3-6) and thus he really should have at least one if not two more titles than he has. 2) The other two active coaches in Izzo’s neighborhood are Rick Pitino and oddly, Roy Williams. Pitino may not have as many upsets as Izzo has, but he does tends to avoid upset losses, has dominated the Sweet 16 round (12-1 lifetime), and has one more title than Izzo. As for Ol’ Roy, I must admit, I have always thought he was a pretty inept x’s and o’s guy. But, the stats don’t lie. His tournament performance has been pretty damn good. He is not great as an underdog (only 5-12) but as a favorite he is rock solid (86%) and he has never lost a 1st round game in 27 tournaments, which is borderline miraculous. Even when he does lose as a favorite, it is rarely to a team seeded more than 1-2 lines below him. The recent exception? George Mason in 2006 in a 3-11 game. Remember those guys? Furthermore, he is not nearly as lucky as most other big name coaches, which is demonstrated by his relatively low LOTD score of 2.9 and this further demonstrated by his strong PAD score relative to his PARIS score. That all said, the last two years have certainly boosted Roy’s metrics. In the summer of 2015, his PAD was only 4.95, which is still very good, but not super elite. 3) The Masters of March in the 80s were Denny Crum and Rollie Massimino. Both coaches had stats that in their own way were very Izzo-like. Both were dominant as a favored seed. Crum only lost four games as a favorite, and Massimino was not upset once in ten years, which is unmatched by anyone in the modern era. Crum had 7 underdog wins, which is half as many as Izzo, but still currently good for an 8-way tie for 8th all time. Massimino had a whopping 11 upsets in only 10 years and is the only coach other than Izzo to be over 0.500 as an underdog with more than 12 games in that situation. Surprisingly, they only have 5 Final Fours between them, but they won 3 Title combined with those chances. 4) Brad Stevens, Guy Lewis, Larry Brown, and Frank Martin have great per year numbers, but they are mostly the product of small sample sizes. Guy Lewis (the coach during the Phi-Slama-Jama days at Houston) and Butler’s Brad Stevens only coached in 4 and 5 tournaments, respectively. Larry Brown has only coached in 8 tournaments. As you might expect, per year basis metrics are pretty sensitive to small sample sizes. Just as example, Frank Martin’s per-year metrics all look great this year due to South Carolina’s magical run to the Final Four as a 7-seed. But, before this year’s run, his PAD/yr value was only 0.23, which is good, but not elite. Interestingly, Stevens, Lewis, and Larry Brown were also all certainly on the lucky side, as the LOTD graph clearly indicates. 5) Speaking of lucky, Billy Donovan has great stats, but he is the luckiest coach in the history of the tournament. Over 14 seasons, he averaged a cumulative seed differential from chalk (LOTD) of over 8. That is simply astounding. The next highest value for a coach with more than 8 tournament appearances is 5.0. But, that is what happens when you benefit from a 15-seed upsetting the 2-seed in your region, twice (among other things). Billy the Kid also had a tendency to get upset, considering 9 of his 12 tournament losses were to lower seeds. But, his performance as an underdog was ironically quite good (6-3, which is the best percentage for any coach with more than 3 tournament appearances), and of course there is the fact that he won two titles. 6) John Beilein is better in March than we probably give him credit for. His cumulative metrics are all strong, and his per-year scores are also very strong. While his relatively few tournament appearances (11) is on the low side, it is impossible to deny that he has been a strong tournament coach over the years. Beilein has notably only been upset twice in his career and one of the “upsets” was to Calipari’s 8-seeded 2014 Kentucky squad that played in the title game. He also owns 7 total upset wins. In fact, he currently has slightly better per year PARIS and PAD scores than does Coach Izzo. If we consider only active coaches with more than 5 tournament appearances, Beilien and Izzo are #1 and #2 in both PARIS/yr and PAD/yr. #respect. 7) Coach K, Calipari, Jim Calhoun, and Jim Boeheim are all very good in March. These four coaches clearly seem to round out the next tier of very good coaches that have not yet been mentioned. Calipari has the best March stats of those four, with a PAD score over 4.0, relatively few upset losses (8) and a respectable number of upset wins (6). Therefore, to answer the original question, Calipari has over-achieved compared to other coaches. Calhoun’s metrics are quite similar. A few notable differences are that Calipari has been great in the 1st round (17-1), and has made the Regional Final in over 60% of his tournament appearances. On the other hand, he has only 1 title to show for it. Conversely, Jim Calhoun has average early round performances, but has a ridiculous 6-1 record in the Final Four, only having lost there to none other than Tom Izzo in 2009. Coach K and Jim Boeheim certainly also have good metrics, but as their metrics per year imply, a part of their success does lie in their longevity. Both get upset at a higher rate than most elite coaches (only an 80% and 75% winning percentage as favorites). Boeheim does have a lot of upset wins (11), but a remarkable small number of Final Fours (5) and Titles (1) considering he has coached in 30 tournaments. Meanwhile, Coach K has not upset a team since 1994, but those 5 Titles do help prop up his scores. That all said, Coach K’s PAD since 1992 is -2.25, which is roughly equivalent to Tony Bennett in the bottom 10% of all active coaches. 8) Notable active coaches in the slightly above average March Warrior category include: Tubby Smith, Sean Miller, Gregg Marshall, Mark Few, Bo Ryan, Jay Wright, Thad Matta, and Dana Altman. They all have PAD values between 0.0 and 2.4. Of those coaches, the one with the most luck is Bo Ryan, with a LOTD score of 4.6, while the least lucky are Jay Wright with a LOTD score of only 1.0, Dana Altman with a score of 0.8, and Gregg Marshall with a score of 0.7. Some guys just can’t catch a break. 9) The notable coaches in the below average category are Tom Crean, Matt Painter, Bob Knight, Bill Self, Lute Olson, Bob Huggins, and Mike Brey. They all have PAD values between zero and -1.5. Now, clearly this group has accomplished some things, as I count 12 Final Fours and 4 Titles in the post-1979 era among this group. But, they all also share the resume lines of either a relatively large number of upset losses or a small number of upset wins… or both. Lute Olson does have a total of 11 upset wins to his credit, but he also has 13 upset losses and only 1 title in 28 tournament appearances. That all said, most of these coaches can use the excuse that they are not terribly lucky, as most of them have LOTD scores around 2.0 or lower. The odd exception to this is “Dollar” Bill Self, who has a LOTD score of 4.9 yet still underachieved pretty noticeably. The last few years have been particularly rough for Self, as he has not had a positive PASE, PARIS, or PAD score since making the Title Game in 2012 and he has not been below a 2-seed in any of those years. 10) If you think those guys are bad, meet the real under-achievers: Tony Bennett, Gene Keady, and Rick Barnes. If you want a couple more names, here they are: Mike Montgomery, John Thompson III, Jamie Dixon, Kelvin Sampson, and Fran Dunphy. All these guys PADs below -2.0 and share some common traits: winning percentages as favorites below 65% and hardly any upset wins. For this crew, they have almost all coached in over 10 tournaments and they virtually all only made the Sweet 16 at a clip of 30% of the time or less. Tony Bennett might be able to pull out of it, as his winning percentage as a favorite is over 70%, he has only been in 7 tournaments, and statistically he won’t draw Tom Izzo every year, but by any measure, these guys have struggled. 11) BONUS Observation: The seemingly truly elite coaches with more than 10 tournaments under their belt all have made Final Fours once out of every three years, on average. The numbers, specifically are: Coach K (36.4%), Izzo (35%), Roy Williams (33.3%), Rick Pitino (33.3%), John Calipari (33.3%), Dean Smith (31.6%). Now, go out and impress your friends with that bit of trivia. Just for fun, here are two tables of all my stats for all active coach and then all coaches period with more than 10 tournament games. Enjoy!)
In an earlier version of my analysis, I simply used the linear fit, but I have updated the metric to instead consider the exact expected value of all possible seed combination based on historical tournament data. I call this metric the Performance Against seed Differential (PAD) Of course, you can get into trouble with small sample sizes (such as the odd fact that 2-seeds are only 1-4 against 5-seeds), but in general I assume that the largeness of the overall dataset will make these anomalies even out. Finally, I also find it useful to tabulate formally the actual cumulative deviation from the seed that a team should face along their tournament path relative to "chalk". I call this factor, LOTD (Luck of the Draw). Continuing the example from above, for MSU’s pre-Final Four run in 2000, the LOTD was zero (not at all lucky), but in 2001, is was 18 (very, very lucky).
Moving forward I now present the PASE, PARIS, and PAD data for coaches back to 1979. PASE is the established metric, so I want to show that for reference to the work of others, PAD is what I think is most useful, and PARIS is a kind of bridge between the two: it is mathematically similar to PAD but philosophically similar to PASE. As you might imagine, plotting the three metrics for all 606 coaches is a bit unwieldy. The full histogram looks, not surprisingly, like a bell curve (see bottom right panel below), as the vast majority of coaches have only made a handful of tournament appearances. So, in order to make things a bit easier to interpret, I have only plotted the metrics for the 128 coaches who have played at least 10 tournament games. Finally, for each of the four metrics in my study (PASE, PARIS, PAD) I plotted both the total cumulative value of each metric as well as the per tournament value. So, enough of all that, it is time to UNLEASH THE HISTOGRAMS:
There is a lot to unpack here, and I think the best way is to present my overall impressions:
1) Tom Izzo is still the Master of March: As the charts show, Izzo is the currently leader in all three cumulative metrics. More than that, Izzo’s current PAD of 8.09 is higher than any other coach at any other time in history with the sole exception of Denny Crum in 1997 when he hit 8.68 with Louisville. Izzo’s per year stats are not quite as elite, but he is still in the Top 10 in these metrics and the vast majority of coaches ahead of him benefited from generally small samples sizes as well as a bit of luck. A quick look at some of Izzo’s other stats shows the reasons why his scores are so high. He is over 0.500 as an underdog in the tournament and holds the record for wins as an underdog with 14. The next best coaches only have 11 (Massimino, Olson, and Boeheim). Izzo also rarely gets upset (only 6 times) and thus has won just a shade below 85% of his games as a favorite (good enough for 7th place among coaches with 10 or more tournaments). Izzo has also made the Sweet 16 in 65% of his tournament appearances and the Final Four in 35%, which is second only to Coach K for coaches with more than 10 attempts. The only knock on Izzo, it that his performance at the Final Four is not great (only 3-6) and thus he really should have at least one if not two more titles than he has.
2) The other two active coaches in Izzo’s neighborhood are Rick Pitino and oddly, Roy Williams. Pitino may not have as many upsets as Izzo has, but he does tends to avoid upset losses, has dominated the Sweet 16 round (12-1 lifetime), and has one more title than Izzo. As for Ol’ Roy, I must admit, I have always thought he was a pretty inept x’s and o’s guy. But, the stats don’t lie. His tournament performance has been pretty damn good. He is not great as an underdog (only 5-12) but as a favorite he is rock solid (86%) and he has never lost a 1st round game in 27 tournaments, which is borderline miraculous. Even when he does lose as a favorite, it is rarely to a team seeded more than 1-2 lines below him. The recent exception? George Mason in 2006 in a 3-11 game. Remember those guys? Furthermore, he is not nearly as lucky as most other big name coaches, which is demonstrated by his relatively low LOTD score of 2.9 and this further demonstrated by his strong PAD score relative to his PARIS score. That all said, the last two years have certainly boosted Roy’s metrics. In the summer of 2015, his PAD was only 4.95, which is still very good, but not super elite.
3) The Masters of March in the 80s were Denny Crum and Rollie Massimino. Both coaches had stats that in their own way were very Izzo-like. Both were dominant as a favored seed. Crum only lost four games as a favorite, and Massimino was not upset once in ten years, which is unmatched by anyone in the modern era. Crum had 7 underdog wins, which is half as many as Izzo, but still currently good for an 8-way tie for 8th all time. Massimino had a whopping 11 upsets in only 10 years and is the only coach other than Izzo to be over 0.500 as an underdog with more than 12 games in that situation. Surprisingly, they only have 5 Final Fours between them, but they won 3 Title combined with those chances.
4) Brad Stevens, Guy Lewis, Larry Brown, and Frank Martin have great per year numbers, but they are mostly the product of small sample sizes. Guy Lewis (the coach during the Phi-Slama-Jama days at Houston) and Butler’s Brad Stevens only coached in 4 and 5 tournaments, respectively. Larry Brown has only coached in 8 tournaments. As you might expect, per year basis metrics are pretty sensitive to small sample sizes. Just as example, Frank Martin’s per-year metrics all look great this year due to South Carolina’s magical run to the Final Four as a 7-seed. But, before this year’s run, his PAD/yr value was only 0.23, which is good, but not elite. Interestingly, Stevens, Lewis, and Larry Brown were also all certainly on the lucky side, as the LOTD graph clearly indicates.
5) Speaking of lucky, Billy Donovan has great stats, but he is the luckiest coach in the history of the tournament. Over 14 seasons, he averaged a cumulative seed differential from chalk (LOTD) of over 8. That is simply astounding. The next highest value for a coach with more than 8 tournament appearances is 5.0. But, that is what happens when you benefit from a 15-seed upsetting the 2-seed in your region, twice (among other things). Billy the Kid also had a tendency to get upset, considering 9 of his 12 tournament losses were to lower seeds. But, his performance as an underdog was ironically quite good (6-3, which is the best percentage for any coach with more than 3 tournament appearances), and of course there is the fact that he won two titles.
6) John Beilein is better in March than we probably give him credit for. His cumulative metrics are all strong, and his per-year scores are also very strong. While his relatively few tournament appearances (11) is on the low side, it is impossible to deny that he has been a strong tournament coach over the years. Beilein has notably only been upset twice in his career and one of the “upsets” was to Calipari’s 8-seeded 2014 Kentucky squad that played in the title game. He also owns 7 total upset wins. In fact, he currently has slightly better per year PARIS and PAD scores than does Coach Izzo. If we consider only active coaches with more than 5 tournament appearances, Beilien and Izzo are #1 and #2 in both PARIS/yr and PAD/yr. #respect.
7) Coach K, Calipari, Jim Calhoun, and Jim Boeheim are all very good in March. These four coaches clearly seem to round out the next tier of very good coaches that have not yet been mentioned. Calipari has the best March stats of those four, with a PAD score over 4.0, relatively few upset losses (8) and a respectable number of upset wins (6). Therefore, to answer the original question, Calipari has over-achieved compared to other coaches. Calhoun’s metrics are quite similar. A few notable differences are that Calipari has been great in the 1st round (17-1), and has made the Regional Final in over 60% of his tournament appearances. On the other hand, he has only 1 title to show for it. Conversely, Jim Calhoun has average early round performances, but has a ridiculous 6-1 record in the Final Four, only having lost there to none other than Tom Izzo in 2009. Coach K and Jim Boeheim certainly also have good metrics, but as their metrics per year imply, a part of their success does lie in their longevity. Both get upset at a higher rate than most elite coaches (only an 80% and 75% winning percentage as favorites). Boeheim does have a lot of upset wins (11), but a remarkable small number of Final Fours (5) and Titles (1) considering he has coached in 30 tournaments. Meanwhile, Coach K has not upset a team since 1994, but those 5 Titles do help prop up his scores. That all said, Coach K’s PAD since 1992 is -2.25, which is roughly equivalent to Tony Bennett in the bottom 10% of all active coaches.
8) Notable active coaches in the slightly above average March Warrior category include: Tubby Smith, Sean Miller, Gregg Marshall, Mark Few, Bo Ryan, Jay Wright, Thad Matta, and Dana Altman. They all have PAD values between 0.0 and 2.4. Of those coaches, the one with the most luck is Bo Ryan, with a LOTD score of 4.6, while the least lucky are Jay Wright with a LOTD score of only 1.0, Dana Altman with a score of 0.8, and Gregg Marshall with a score of 0.7. Some guys just can’t catch a break.
9) The notable coaches in the below average category are Tom Crean, Matt Painter, Bob Knight, Bill Self, Lute Olson, Bob Huggins, and Mike Brey. They all have PAD values between zero and -1.5. Now, clearly this group has accomplished some things, as I count 12 Final Fours and 4 Titles in the post-1979 era among this group. But, they all also share the resume lines of either a relatively large number of upset losses or a small number of upset wins… or both. Lute Olson does have a total of 11 upset wins to his credit, but he also has 13 upset losses and only 1 title in 28 tournament appearances. That all said, most of these coaches can use the excuse that they are not terribly lucky, as most of them have LOTD scores around 2.0 or lower. The odd exception to this is “Dollar” Bill Self, who has a LOTD score of 4.9 yet still underachieved pretty noticeably. The last few years have been particularly rough for Self, as he has not had a positive PASE, PARIS, or PAD score since making the Title Game in 2012 and he has not been below a 2-seed in any of those years.
10) If you think those guys are bad, meet the real under-achievers: Tony Bennett, Gene Keady, and Rick Barnes. If you want a couple more names, here they are: Mike Montgomery, John Thompson III, Jamie Dixon, Kelvin Sampson, and Fran Dunphy. All these guys PADs below -2.0 and share some common traits: winning percentages as favorites below 65% and hardly any upset wins. For this crew, they have almost all coached in over 10 tournaments and they virtually all only made the Sweet 16 at a clip of 30% of the time or less. Tony Bennett might be able to pull out of it, as his winning percentage as a favorite is over 70%, he has only been in 7 tournaments, and statistically he won’t draw Tom Izzo every year, but by any measure, these guys have struggled.
11) BONUS Observation: The seemingly truly elite coaches with more than 10 tournaments under their belt all have made Final Fours once out of every three years, on average. The numbers, specifically are: Coach K (36.4%), Izzo (35%), Roy Williams (33.3%), Rick Pitino (33.3%), John Calipari (33.3%), Dean Smith (31.6%). Now, go out and impress your friends with that bit of trivia.
Just for fun, here are two tables of all my stats for all active coach and then all coaches period with more than 10 tournament games. Enjoy!
(WARNING: Math Alert!)
The math behind my metric is slightly different than PASE, as the PASE metric considers the performance of each team per tournament, while my metric considers each tournament game individually. For example, based on the historical data since the 64 team expansion in 1985, 1-seeds win, on average, 3.36 games per tournament. So, if a 1-seed wins 5 games (makes the title game), that team won 1.64 more games than average, so that team has a PASE of 1.64 for that tournament. In my metrics, I instead use the expected value of wins for any given game. For example, 1-seeds win 80% of all of their tournament games (444-112 since 1985). In other words, the expected value of wins per game for a 1-seed overall is 0.80. Mathematically, for each game a 1-seed wins, that team gets 0.2 “points” (1 minus the expected value) and for every game a 1-seed loses, that team loses 0.8 “points”. For example, if a team has played 10 games total as a 1-seed, but only won 7 of those games, their score is -1.0 (7*0.2 - 3*0.8 = -1), but if they won 9 of 10, their score is +1.0 (9*0.2 - 1*0.8=1).
My expected-value-based metrics are highly correlated to PASE, but my metrics are a bit more conservative. They punish a team less for getting upset than PASE does and generally rewards a team less for a deep run. My metrics also have some mathematical advantages such as the total sum for all 606 coaches to have made an appearance in March Madness since seeding began in 1979 is exactly zero, as is the sum for all 1-seeds, etc. Part of the reason for this is that my expected-value metrics tacitly assume that the total tournament games played by each coach is fixed, while PASE takes into account the loss of potential wins down the road. For example, MSU’s loss to MTSU last year resulted in a PASE “penalty” of -2.37 due to the loss of potential 2nd and 3rd round wins which a 2-seed is favored to win. In the expected-value-based system, a team can never be penalized more than one game per tournament. So, they measure slightly different things.
My first metric is based on the historical winning percentage of each seed in each game. For example, as stated above, 1-seeds win 80% of all of their tournament games, and an earlier version of this metric used just this fact. While this is true, they obviously have won 100% of all 1st round games and the win percentage goes down to only 60% from the Regional Final on. My first metric considers the winning percentage / expected value of each seed as a function of round. For examples, 1-seeds have an expected value of 1.0 wins in 1st round games (since they have never lost), 0.85 in 2nd round games, 0.8 in 3rd round games, and roughly 0.6 in the regional final on. For a given tournament or career, it is a simple matter of comparing the results of each game (win or lose) to the expected value and the add it all up (similar to the example in the previous paragraph.) Since all metrics need to have snappy acronyms, I call this metric the Performance Against Round Independent Seed (PARIS) and its value is essentially the number of wins above or below average compared to all other coaches. The R-squared correlation to PASE is 0.93, so they give very similar results, although PASE is almost always larger in value.
The second metric I developed is mathematically similar to PARIS, but it takes into consideration one additional important factor, and that is the idea that not all tournament paths are created equally. For example, in 2000, MSU as a 1-seed faced the toughest possible path to the Final Four in playing a 16-seed, 8-seed, 4-seed, and a 2-seed while in 2001, MSU made the Final Four by beating a 16-seed, 9-seed, 12-seed, and an 11-seed. The PASE and PARIS metric would treat each of these tournament runs equally. However, in my opinion, you can more accurately account for this “luck of the draw” by considering the expected value of each game based on the differential in seed between the two teams. For example, a 1-seed playing a 4-seed has a differential of 3, while a 1-seed playing a 12-seed has a differential of 11. As I observed a few years ago, if you plot the probability of victory (i.e. the expected value) for all games in the tournament vs. seed differential, the plot is surprisingly linear (see below), although there are some noticeable biases, specifically, 1-seeds always do a little better than the full regression would suggest.
In an earlier version of my analysis, I simply used the linear fit, but I have updated the metric to instead consider the exact expected value of all possible seed combination based on historical tournament data. I call this metric the Performance Against seed Differential (PAD) Of course, you can get into trouble with small sample sizes (such as the odd fact that 2-seeds are only 1-4 against 5-seeds), but in general I assume that the largeness of the overall dataset will make these anomalies even out. Finally, I also find it useful to tabulate formally the actual cumulative deviation from the seed that a team should face along their tournament path relative to "chalk". I call this factor, LOTD (Luck of the Draw). Continuing the example from above, for MSU’s pre-Final Four run in 2000, the LOTD was zero (not at all lucky), but in 2001, is was 18 (very, very lucky).
Moving forward I now present the PASE, PARIS, and PAD data for coaches back to 1979. PASE is the established metric, so I want to show that for reference to the work of others, PAD is what I think is most useful, and PARIS is a kind of bridge between the two: it is mathematically similar to PAD but philosophically similar to PASE. As you might imagine, plotting the three metrics for all 606 coaches is a bit unwieldy. The full histogram looks, not surprisingly, like a bell curve (see bottom right panel below), as the vast majority of coaches have only made a handful of tournament appearances. So, in order to make things a bit easier to interpret, I have only plotted the metrics for the 128 coaches who have played at least 10 tournament games. Finally, for each of the four metrics in my study (PASE, PARIS, PAD) I plotted both the total cumulative value of each metric as well as the per tournament value. So, enough of all that, it is time to UNLEASH THE HISTOGRAMS:
There is a lot to unpack here, and I think the best way is to present my overall impressions:
1) Tom Izzo is still the Master of March: As the charts show, Izzo is the currently leader in all three cumulative metrics. More than that, Izzo’s current PAD of 8.09 is higher than any other coach at any other time in history with the sole exception of Denny Crum in 1997 when he hit 8.68 with Louisville. Izzo’s per year stats are not quite as elite, but he is still in the Top 10 in these metrics and the vast majority of coaches ahead of him benefited from generally small samples sizes as well as a bit of luck. A quick look at some of Izzo’s other stats shows the reasons why his scores are so high. He is over 0.500 as an underdog in the tournament and holds the record for wins as an underdog with 14. The next best coaches only have 11 (Massimino, Olson, and Boeheim). Izzo also rarely gets upset (only 6 times) and thus has won just a shade below 85% of his games as a favorite (good enough for 7th place among coaches with 10 or more tournaments). Izzo has also made the Sweet 16 in 65% of his tournament appearances and the Final Four in 35%, which is second only to Coach K for coaches with more than 10 attempts. The only knock on Izzo, it that his performance at the Final Four is not great (only 3-6) and thus he really should have at least one if not two more titles than he has.
2) The other two active coaches in Izzo’s neighborhood are Rick Pitino and oddly, Roy Williams. Pitino may not have as many upsets as Izzo has, but he does tends to avoid upset losses, has dominated the Sweet 16 round (12-1 lifetime), and has one more title than Izzo. As for Ol’ Roy, I must admit, I have always thought he was a pretty inept x’s and o’s guy. But, the stats don’t lie. His tournament performance has been pretty damn good. He is not great as an underdog (only 5-12) but as a favorite he is rock solid (86%) and he has never lost a 1st round game in 27 tournaments, which is borderline miraculous. Even when he does lose as a favorite, it is rarely to a team seeded more than 1-2 lines below him. The recent exception? George Mason in 2006 in a 3-11 game. Remember those guys? Furthermore, he is not nearly as lucky as most other big name coaches, which is demonstrated by his relatively low LOTD score of 2.9 and this further demonstrated by his strong PAD score relative to his PARIS score. That all said, the last two years have certainly boosted Roy’s metrics. In the summer of 2015, his PAD was only 4.95, which is still very good, but not super elite.
3) The Masters of March in the 80s were Denny Crum and Rollie Massimino. Both coaches had stats that in their own way were very Izzo-like. Both were dominant as a favored seed. Crum only lost four games as a favorite, and Massimino was not upset once in ten years, which is unmatched by anyone in the modern era. Crum had 7 underdog wins, which is half as many as Izzo, but still currently good for an 8-way tie for 8th all time. Massimino had a whopping 11 upsets in only 10 years and is the only coach other than Izzo to be over 0.500 as an underdog with more than 12 games in that situation. Surprisingly, they only have 5 Final Fours between them, but they won 3 Title combined with those chances.
4) Brad Stevens, Guy Lewis, Larry Brown, and Frank Martin have great per year numbers, but they are mostly the product of small sample sizes. Guy Lewis (the coach during the Phi-Slama-Jama days at Houston) and Butler’s Brad Stevens only coached in 4 and 5 tournaments, respectively. Larry Brown has only coached in 8 tournaments. As you might expect, per year basis metrics are pretty sensitive to small sample sizes. Just as example, Frank Martin’s per-year metrics all look great this year due to South Carolina’s magical run to the Final Four as a 7-seed. But, before this year’s run, his PAD/yr value was only 0.23, which is good, but not elite. Interestingly, Stevens, Lewis, and Larry Brown were also all certainly on the lucky side, as the LOTD graph clearly indicates.
5) Speaking of lucky, Billy Donovan has great stats, but he is the luckiest coach in the history of the tournament. Over 14 seasons, he averaged a cumulative seed differential from chalk (LOTD) of over 8. That is simply astounding. The next highest value for a coach with more than 8 tournament appearances is 5.0. But, that is what happens when you benefit from a 15-seed upsetting the 2-seed in your region, twice (among other things). Billy the Kid also had a tendency to get upset, considering 9 of his 12 tournament losses were to lower seeds. But, his performance as an underdog was ironically quite good (6-3, which is the best percentage for any coach with more than 3 tournament appearances), and of course there is the fact that he won two titles.
6) John Beilein is better in March than we probably give him credit for. His cumulative metrics are all strong, and his per-year scores are also very strong. While his relatively few tournament appearances (11) is on the low side, it is impossible to deny that he has been a strong tournament coach over the years. Beilein has notably only been upset twice in his career and one of the “upsets” was to Calipari’s 8-seeded 2014 Kentucky squad that played in the title game. He also owns 7 total upset wins. In fact, he currently has slightly better per year PARIS and PAD scores than does Coach Izzo. If we consider only active coaches with more than 5 tournament appearances, Beilien and Izzo are #1 and #2 in both PARIS/yr and PAD/yr. #respect.
7) Coach K, Calipari, Jim Calhoun, and Jim Boeheim are all very good in March. These four coaches clearly seem to round out the next tier of very good coaches that have not yet been mentioned. Calipari has the best March stats of those four, with a PAD score over 4.0, relatively few upset losses (8) and a respectable number of upset wins (6). Therefore, to answer the original question, Calipari has over-achieved compared to other coaches. Calhoun’s metrics are quite similar. A few notable differences are that Calipari has been great in the 1st round (17-1), and has made the Regional Final in over 60% of his tournament appearances. On the other hand, he has only 1 title to show for it. Conversely, Jim Calhoun has average early round performances, but has a ridiculous 6-1 record in the Final Four, only having lost there to none other than Tom Izzo in 2009. Coach K and Jim Boeheim certainly also have good metrics, but as their metrics per year imply, a part of their success does lie in their longevity. Both get upset at a higher rate than most elite coaches (only an 80% and 75% winning percentage as favorites). Boeheim does have a lot of upset wins (11), but a remarkable small number of Final Fours (5) and Titles (1) considering he has coached in 30 tournaments. Meanwhile, Coach K has not upset a team since 1994, but those 5 Titles do help prop up his scores. That all said, Coach K’s PAD since 1992 is -2.25, which is roughly equivalent to Tony Bennett in the bottom 10% of all active coaches.
8) Notable active coaches in the slightly above average March Warrior category include: Tubby Smith, Sean Miller, Gregg Marshall, Mark Few, Bo Ryan, Jay Wright, Thad Matta, and Dana Altman. They all have PAD values between 0.0 and 2.4. Of those coaches, the one with the most luck is Bo Ryan, with a LOTD score of 4.6, while the least lucky are Jay Wright with a LOTD score of only 1.0, Dana Altman with a score of 0.8, and Gregg Marshall with a score of 0.7. Some guys just can’t catch a break.
9) The notable coaches in the below average category are Tom Crean, Matt Painter, Bob Knight, Bill Self, Lute Olson, Bob Huggins, and Mike Brey. They all have PAD values between zero and -1.5. Now, clearly this group has accomplished some things, as I count 12 Final Fours and 4 Titles in the post-1979 era among this group. But, they all also share the resume lines of either a relatively large number of upset losses or a small number of upset wins… or both. Lute Olson does have a total of 11 upset wins to his credit, but he also has 13 upset losses and only 1 title in 28 tournament appearances. That all said, most of these coaches can use the excuse that they are not terribly lucky, as most of them have LOTD scores around 2.0 or lower. The odd exception to this is “Dollar” Bill Self, who has a LOTD score of 4.9 yet still underachieved pretty noticeably. The last few years have been particularly rough for Self, as he has not had a positive PASE, PARIS, or PAD score since making the Title Game in 2012 and he has not been below a 2-seed in any of those years.
10) If you think those guys are bad, meet the real under-achievers: Tony Bennett, Gene Keady, and Rick Barnes. If you want a couple more names, here they are: Mike Montgomery, John Thompson III, Jamie Dixon, Kelvin Sampson, and Fran Dunphy. All these guys PADs below -2.0 and share some common traits: winning percentages as favorites below 65% and hardly any upset wins. For this crew, they have almost all coached in over 10 tournaments and they virtually all only made the Sweet 16 at a clip of 30% of the time or less. Tony Bennett might be able to pull out of it, as his winning percentage as a favorite is over 70%, he has only been in 7 tournaments, and statistically he won’t draw Tom Izzo every year, but by any measure, these guys have struggled.
11) BONUS Observation: The seemingly truly elite coaches with more than 10 tournaments under their belt all have made Final Fours once out of every three years, on average. The numbers, specifically are: Coach K (36.4%), Izzo (35%), Roy Williams (33.3%), Rick Pitino (33.3%), John Calipari (33.3%), Dean Smith (31.6%). Now, go out and impress your friends with that bit of trivia.
Just for fun, here are two tables of all my stats for all active coach and then all coaches period with more than 10 tournament games. Enjoy!
Going deeper on the latest commitment
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
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Latest commitment packs character, smarts, instinctiveness
Jim Comparoni | Editor
Michigan State’s latest football commitment has rooted against the Spartans on a frequent basis - but maintained a secret affinity for MSU while doing so.
Edward Warinner committed to Michigan State on Wednesday via a phone call to head coach Mark Dantonio.
And Dantonio doesn’t mind for a second that Warriner rooted against MSU last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.
Warriner’s father, Ed, served as an assistant coach at Ohio State from 2012 to 2016. He left to become offensive line coach at run game coordinator at Minnesota on Jan. 10.
When Spartan fans were celebrating Jeremy Langford’s game-clinching TD run against the Buckeyes in the 2013 Big Ten Championship Game, or Michael Geiger’s game-winning field goal during the Spartans’ upset of Ohio State in 2015, Edward Warriner wasn’t quite so happy. But he was impressed.
“If you want to know the truth, I remember watching MSU in those games in 2013 and 2015 and all those years and thinking that would be a cool place to play,” Warriner said.
Cool enough to commit to Michigan State, just eight days after the Spartans offered him a scholarship.
The 6-foot-1, 225-pound Warriner will be a senior at Powell (Ohio) Olentangy Liberty High School next fall.
He is ranked the No. 42 player in Ohio by Rivals.com. He committed to Michigan State over offers from West Virginia, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Central Florida and others. He was scheduled to visit Iowa this weekend, but canceled when he realized his heart was with Michigan State.
“I really knew yesterday (Tuesday),” Warinner said. “I thought about it, I made my decision and I was all set. But I didn’t want to commit late that night because I had a lot of schoolwork to do.
“Wednesday morning, I shot Coach Tressel a text, saying that I wanted to call him at a specific time and that I had good news. Then I called Coach Tressel and I talked to him, and then he said, ‘You’ve got to talk to Coach Dantonio to commit,’ so he put me on the phone with Coach D and I committed, and here I am.
“To be committed to a great school, a great program like Michigan State is a great feeling. It’s really relieving.”
He could have chased more offers through the summer and fall, but realized he already had one he couldn’t pass up.
“I was thinking about my options that I had and the options that I could have had later on in recruiting as this moved forward, but yesterday I was perfectly sold and I knew I wanted to be a Spartan,” he said. “This wasn’t an impulse decision. I thought about it really thoroughly.
“I was supposed to visit Iowa this weekend and spend the whole weekend in Iowa City but I was so set on Michigan State that I decided to commit before I went out to Iowa City.”
Were the Hawkeyes going to be the next school to offer?
“Yeah, I think so,” he said. “I’m not going to say they were, because I’ll never know, but based on what I was supposed to do during the visit and the vibe I got from them, I think that would have happened. But that’s not really important to me because I’m set on Michigan State.”
What about Minnesota, his father’s new employer?
“I thought about Minnesota but for reasons that I will keep to myself, I didn’t think that’s where I wanted to play college football,” he said. “My dad was the most supportive of anyone when I committed to Michigan State and throughout the recruiting process. So it’s all good in my house.
Warinner’s father and Dantonio were briefly roommates in 1985 when they were assistant coaches at the University of Akron. Warriner was running backs coach at Akron. Dantonio was defensive backs coach. Akron was the first full-time assistant coaching job for both gentlemen. But Warriner soon left to join George Perles’ staff at Michigan State as a linebackers and secondary coach for the fall of 1985.
Warriner’s father has obviously watched Dantonio’s progress at Michigan State closely.
“He thinks it’s a great program and the success Coach Dantonio has had speaks for itself and it’s a great university,” said Edward Jr. “So he’s all sold on me going to Michigan State. He bought in.”
Warinner helped Olentangy Liberty to a 13-1 record and a berth in the state semifinals last year, although he sat out the last six games of the season after suffering a torn ACL.
“My recovery is going good,” Warinner said. “I’m all set to be cleared in May. I’m really doing well. The way it’s done today, it’s not even that big of a deal. I’m going to be all good for next year. All it did was take away the playoffs for me.
“I thought my knee was going to slow down a lot of things in recruiting for me, and it kind of did. Some schools that were talking to me kind of stopped but a lot of schools saw how well I was doing with the rehab, and they’ve seen all the dudes in today’s athletics who have come back from this injury even better than they were before, so there were enough schools on me that I knew I was going to be committed somewhere before August. Having it happen in April is pretty cool, too.”
HOW IT WENT DOWN
MSU offered Warinner on April 5 when he visited campus for the Spartans’ final practice of the spring.
“I took a day off from school and came up and visited and sat in the meetings and went to practice,” Warinner said.
Did he expect an offer during the visit?
“When I was driving up there, no,” he said. “But during the visit, the vibe I was getting, I kind of felt it coming and then it happened.”
While watching practice, he saw Dantonio point in his direction and call him out to mid-field.
“He pointed to me and told me to come over from the sidelines,” Warinner said, “and he offered me.
“I was really happy. Getting offered by any school is really cool. It was really a great feeling. Obviously it resonated well with me.”
What does Dantonio like about Warinner?
“He said he likes my character,” Warinner said. “He said I’m the type of person that would thrive at MSU. He said he loves the way I play linebacker. He said they think that I’m a really instinctive linebacker that makes plays, fills well, tackles well, plays smart.
“I’ve always been in charge of the defense since I’ve been in high school and they said they expect that to be the same when I go to Michigan State. They think that I’m an ideal guy to play in the middle. They think I can do really well at Michigan State and so do I.”
Dantonio didn’t push for a commitment. But eight days later, Warinner was eager to call him back with a decision.
“Coach D was happy when I talked to him and committed,” Warinner said. “It was all positive. We had a good talk and I’m feeling good.”
Last week marked Warinner’s third visit to Michigan State. His first was during last fall’s football game against Wisconsin.
“The atmosphere at Spartan Stadium is really cool,” he said. “Really pretty campus. It’s a football school. I mean you’re going to play in front of a nice crowd, passionate fans and it’s a great university.”
FILM REVIEW: When watching Warinner highlight tapes, it’s clear he crams in film study prior to games. He is always taking smart, early steps while making his reads, an indication that backfield flow, line play or other tendencies have tipped him off on where the play is headed.
He admits to being a film studier.
“We’re coached up really well,” he said. “I wouldn’t like playing in a football game if I wasn’t prepared. So I take pride in knowing the gameplan and knowing what I’m doing, especially at a position like linebacker.”
COMPARISONS? Linebackers coach and co-defensive coordinator Mike Tressel likes Warinner’s mind.
“But Coach Tressel told me he thinks I’m smart, like Max Bullough,” Warinner said.
“I always liked watching Jon Reschke play and that’s the kind of player I would like to be. I mean shoot, being like any of the guys would be great - like Riley Bullough, Chris Frey, any of them.
“But I don’t want to compare myself to anyone because I haven’t earned that right to be compared to anyone yet.”
WHAT’S NEXT: Warinner isn’t sure if he will attend summer camps. And there’s no baseball or track and field for him this spring.
“Right now, my spring sport is rehab,” he said.
When news broke of his commitment at 3 p.m. on Wednesday, he declined to do interviews until after his team workouts were complete.
As for next fall, he’s dialing up for a run in the playoffs.
“We’ll be really good again this year,” he said. “We’re a well-coached team and we have a lot of guys that are pretty talented. I’m excited about it.”
Jim Comparoni | Editor
Michigan State’s latest football commitment has rooted against the Spartans on a frequent basis - but maintained a secret affinity for MSU while doing so.
Edward Warinner committed to Michigan State on Wednesday via a phone call to head coach Mark Dantonio.
And Dantonio doesn’t mind for a second that Warriner rooted against MSU last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.
Warriner’s father, Ed, served as an assistant coach at Ohio State from 2012 to 2016. He left to become offensive line coach at run game coordinator at Minnesota on Jan. 10.
When Spartan fans were celebrating Jeremy Langford’s game-clinching TD run against the Buckeyes in the 2013 Big Ten Championship Game, or Michael Geiger’s game-winning field goal during the Spartans’ upset of Ohio State in 2015, Edward Warriner wasn’t quite so happy. But he was impressed.
“If you want to know the truth, I remember watching MSU in those games in 2013 and 2015 and all those years and thinking that would be a cool place to play,” Warriner said.
Cool enough to commit to Michigan State, just eight days after the Spartans offered him a scholarship.
The 6-foot-1, 225-pound Warriner will be a senior at Powell (Ohio) Olentangy Liberty High School next fall.
He is ranked the No. 42 player in Ohio by Rivals.com. He committed to Michigan State over offers from West Virginia, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Central Florida and others. He was scheduled to visit Iowa this weekend, but canceled when he realized his heart was with Michigan State.
“I really knew yesterday (Tuesday),” Warinner said. “I thought about it, I made my decision and I was all set. But I didn’t want to commit late that night because I had a lot of schoolwork to do.
“Wednesday morning, I shot Coach Tressel a text, saying that I wanted to call him at a specific time and that I had good news. Then I called Coach Tressel and I talked to him, and then he said, ‘You’ve got to talk to Coach Dantonio to commit,’ so he put me on the phone with Coach D and I committed, and here I am.
“To be committed to a great school, a great program like Michigan State is a great feeling. It’s really relieving.”
He could have chased more offers through the summer and fall, but realized he already had one he couldn’t pass up.
“I was thinking about my options that I had and the options that I could have had later on in recruiting as this moved forward, but yesterday I was perfectly sold and I knew I wanted to be a Spartan,” he said. “This wasn’t an impulse decision. I thought about it really thoroughly.
“I was supposed to visit Iowa this weekend and spend the whole weekend in Iowa City but I was so set on Michigan State that I decided to commit before I went out to Iowa City.”
Were the Hawkeyes going to be the next school to offer?
“Yeah, I think so,” he said. “I’m not going to say they were, because I’ll never know, but based on what I was supposed to do during the visit and the vibe I got from them, I think that would have happened. But that’s not really important to me because I’m set on Michigan State.”
What about Minnesota, his father’s new employer?
“I thought about Minnesota but for reasons that I will keep to myself, I didn’t think that’s where I wanted to play college football,” he said. “My dad was the most supportive of anyone when I committed to Michigan State and throughout the recruiting process. So it’s all good in my house.
Warinner’s father and Dantonio were briefly roommates in 1985 when they were assistant coaches at the University of Akron. Warriner was running backs coach at Akron. Dantonio was defensive backs coach. Akron was the first full-time assistant coaching job for both gentlemen. But Warriner soon left to join George Perles’ staff at Michigan State as a linebackers and secondary coach for the fall of 1985.
Warriner’s father has obviously watched Dantonio’s progress at Michigan State closely.
“He thinks it’s a great program and the success Coach Dantonio has had speaks for itself and it’s a great university,” said Edward Jr. “So he’s all sold on me going to Michigan State. He bought in.”
Warinner helped Olentangy Liberty to a 13-1 record and a berth in the state semifinals last year, although he sat out the last six games of the season after suffering a torn ACL.
“My recovery is going good,” Warinner said. “I’m all set to be cleared in May. I’m really doing well. The way it’s done today, it’s not even that big of a deal. I’m going to be all good for next year. All it did was take away the playoffs for me.
“I thought my knee was going to slow down a lot of things in recruiting for me, and it kind of did. Some schools that were talking to me kind of stopped but a lot of schools saw how well I was doing with the rehab, and they’ve seen all the dudes in today’s athletics who have come back from this injury even better than they were before, so there were enough schools on me that I knew I was going to be committed somewhere before August. Having it happen in April is pretty cool, too.”
HOW IT WENT DOWN
MSU offered Warinner on April 5 when he visited campus for the Spartans’ final practice of the spring.
“I took a day off from school and came up and visited and sat in the meetings and went to practice,” Warinner said.
Did he expect an offer during the visit?
“When I was driving up there, no,” he said. “But during the visit, the vibe I was getting, I kind of felt it coming and then it happened.”
While watching practice, he saw Dantonio point in his direction and call him out to mid-field.
“He pointed to me and told me to come over from the sidelines,” Warinner said, “and he offered me.
“I was really happy. Getting offered by any school is really cool. It was really a great feeling. Obviously it resonated well with me.”
What does Dantonio like about Warinner?
“He said he likes my character,” Warinner said. “He said I’m the type of person that would thrive at MSU. He said he loves the way I play linebacker. He said they think that I’m a really instinctive linebacker that makes plays, fills well, tackles well, plays smart.
“I’ve always been in charge of the defense since I’ve been in high school and they said they expect that to be the same when I go to Michigan State. They think that I’m an ideal guy to play in the middle. They think I can do really well at Michigan State and so do I.”
Dantonio didn’t push for a commitment. But eight days later, Warinner was eager to call him back with a decision.
“Coach D was happy when I talked to him and committed,” Warinner said. “It was all positive. We had a good talk and I’m feeling good.”
Last week marked Warinner’s third visit to Michigan State. His first was during last fall’s football game against Wisconsin.
“The atmosphere at Spartan Stadium is really cool,” he said. “Really pretty campus. It’s a football school. I mean you’re going to play in front of a nice crowd, passionate fans and it’s a great university.”
FILM REVIEW: When watching Warinner highlight tapes, it’s clear he crams in film study prior to games. He is always taking smart, early steps while making his reads, an indication that backfield flow, line play or other tendencies have tipped him off on where the play is headed.
He admits to being a film studier.
“We’re coached up really well,” he said. “I wouldn’t like playing in a football game if I wasn’t prepared. So I take pride in knowing the gameplan and knowing what I’m doing, especially at a position like linebacker.”
COMPARISONS? Linebackers coach and co-defensive coordinator Mike Tressel likes Warinner’s mind.
“But Coach Tressel told me he thinks I’m smart, like Max Bullough,” Warinner said.
“I always liked watching Jon Reschke play and that’s the kind of player I would like to be. I mean shoot, being like any of the guys would be great - like Riley Bullough, Chris Frey, any of them.
“But I don’t want to compare myself to anyone because I haven’t earned that right to be compared to anyone yet.”
WHAT’S NEXT: Warinner isn’t sure if he will attend summer camps. And there’s no baseball or track and field for him this spring.
“Right now, my spring sport is rehab,” he said.
When news broke of his commitment at 3 p.m. on Wednesday, he declined to do interviews until after his team workouts were complete.
As for next fall, he’s dialing up for a run in the playoffs.
“We’ll be really good again this year,” he said. “We’re a well-coached team and we have a lot of guys that are pretty talented. I’m excited about it.”
MSU Football Notes
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
- 1 Replies
Dantonio largely positive, assertive in Big Ten spring teleconference
Jim Comparoni | Editor
EAST LANSING - The rebuild and reset of Michigan State football is hitting the next stage.
With his team heading out of spring practice and toward the summer months, Mark Dantonio sounded as steadfast and task-oriented as ever during his seven-minute press briefing as part of the annual Big Ten spring football teleconference, Wednesday.
Reiterating a theme of threatened attrition he first mentioned in the season-wrap press conference in December, Dantonio publicly challenged his team to continue to work and bond, or become roadkill.
“We’re going to come together as a football team and we’re all going to go in the same direction and if we’re not going in the same direction, those people will be left behind,” Dantonio said.
Wednesday’s briefing marked Dantonio’s second football-specific press conference since Feb. 1, as he has stayed away from cameras and microphones while the program faces the scrutiny of investigations into alleged sexual assault. Three unnamed players have been suspended since early-February as a result of the allegations, as the Ingham County Prosecutor’s office continues to investigate. No charges have been brought against the players. Curtis Blackwell, the MSU football team’s director of college advancement and performance, is also suspended as a result of allegations.
“Obviously there is a concern off the field that we had and I addressed that in an earlier press conference so we need to work through those situations,” Dantonio said. “There’s no question that we need to continue to solidify ourself in every respect. But as much as anything, when you have a young football team, you need to find leadership and that leadership needs to translate on the field and off the field as well. So that’s what we’re doing. We’re finding who our leaders are.”
Dantonio’s press briefing lasted for seven minutes. He fielded six questions.
RED-LOCK AND UPWARD TRENDS
During the short briefing, he complimented sophomore quarterback Brian Lewerke and sophomore offensive lineman Tyler Higby for continuing to come back strong from injuries which ended their 2016 seasons.
But the first question he fielded centered around suspensions. He was asked if any players who played in the Green-White Game on April 1 had been suspended.
Dantonio acknowledged that there have been new suspensions, but downplayed the significance.
“We red-lock people from time to time,” Dantonio said. “We use the term ‘red-lock’ for various things. So yes there has been. There’s constant people in and out of different situations. I think that’s normal.”
This admission led to continued negative headlines about the team although Dantonio was otherwise positive and progressive about the direction of the Spartans.
“There are some other guys that are trending upward, they’re just young players,” Dantonio said. “Guys like Tyler Higby, who was a redshirt freshman last year and is coming off a broken (ankle), has improved and is getting back to playing and he could be a very good player. And he’s just one of the guys. A lot of those type of things have occurred.
“Matt Sokol looks good at tight end. I think our running back situation is going to be strong.
“So there’s a lot of areas on our football team that have strength and there are some other areas that have youth. I think that’s natural. When you look around, every football team in the country has positions of strengths and weaknesses and you have to capitalize on your strengths.”
CONTINUED ATTRITION?
As for weaknesses, Dantonio is working to fix those - possibly by subtraction.
He said in December that he expected attrition, following a 3-9 season - his worst in 10 years as MSU’s head coach.
Dantonio revealed in late March that third-stringer Drake Martinez had opted to transfer out of the program. Former starter Jon Reschke announced his plans to transfer in March after admitting to making what he called “an insensitive and totally regrettable comment” involving a former teammate.
On Wednesday, Dantonio was asked how much more attrition he expected prior to the outset of summer camp in late July.
“That’s a tough thing to evaluate because people make decisions after spring ball relative to what they’re going to do,” Dantonio said. “Some people tend to change. I think that’s natural.
“I can’t put a number on that. All I can do is we are going to do the things we have to do to move forward as a program.”
SPRINGING FORWARD?
Michigan State played the earliest spring football game of any team in the Big Ten this year, playing the Green-White Game on April 1, earlier than ever in a calendar year for the program.
Also, for the first time ever, Michigan State had two more practices after the spring game.
With spring practice having officially concluded, Dantonio was asked if he saw the type of improvement he needed to see through 15 spring practices.
“Yeah, I think we did, “Dantonio said. “We have a young football team. I don’t think there is any question about that. When you have eight seniors on your team, scholarship players, you are going to be relatively young.
“But we have a very strong junior class. I’ve been impressed with our younger players as they’ve moved forward. Guys are getting a lot of reps. They improve. When you’re young, you improve. It’s the daily improvement. The learning curve is a little bit greater, so you see a little bit more drastic improvement as you go.”
Examples?
“I’ve been very impressed with our quarterback, Brian Lewerke,” Dantonio said. “He’s 215 pounds now. He’s bigger, he’s faster.”
LEWERKE 'CLEARLY' THE STARTER
Lewerke started two games last year at mid-season, but was lost for the year with a broken leg in the second half of Michigan State’s loss to Michigan.
He completed 54.4 percent of his passes last year for 381 yards with two TDs and one interception.
“He throws the ball, has great rhythm,” Dantonio said. “He’s clearly the starter heading into the off-season. I think that’s warranted.”
Lewerke was expected to be pushed by redshirt freshman Messiah de Weaver during the spring, and fifth-year senior Damion Terry. But injuries limited Terry and de Weaver in the spring.
Neither player saw action in the Green-White Game on April 1. Dantonio expanded on their injuries for the first time, Wednesday.
“Messiah de Weaver had some back issues so he missed the majority, really almost all of the spring,” Dantonio said. “So that set him back a little bit. But I believe he is a fast learner and he is going to have opportunities here as he moves forward.”
“Damion was able to do a lot of pass skel (7-on-7) work. He had a surgery coming out of the season so we had to hold him out of contact work. But he’s a fifth-year senior. He has a lot of experience and he can be a very good quarterback but he has to stay injury-free. But he got a lot of reps in terms of drill work and things of that nature.”
THE REST OF IT
Dantonio’s seven-minute and 21-second teleconference appearance was near the conference average on Wednesday, with new Indiana coach Tom Allen having the shortest teleconference at 5:53 and Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz having the longest at 11:03.
Dantonio was asked which state, other than his school’s home state, is the most important for his program in terms of recruiting. Not surprisingly, Dantonio said Ohio.
“For Michigan State, we tend to go into Ohio,” Dantonio said. “My background’s in Ohio. We understand the football that’s played there. They play a high level of football. Michigan State has always been a place where we’ve gotten a lot of players from Ohio.
“Last year we had over 30, I believe, from the state. It’s a very important recruiting area for us. We have had some outstanding players from there.”
Ironically, Dantonio gained a commitment from his latest Ohio recruit shortly after the teleconference when linebacker Edward Warinner of Powell (Ohio) Olentangy Liberty High School committed to the Spartans over West Virginia, Rutgers, Cincinnati and growing interest from Iowa.
Brian Lewerke heads into the off-season as the clear No. 1 at QB, Dantonio said.
Jim Comparoni | Editor
EAST LANSING - The rebuild and reset of Michigan State football is hitting the next stage.
With his team heading out of spring practice and toward the summer months, Mark Dantonio sounded as steadfast and task-oriented as ever during his seven-minute press briefing as part of the annual Big Ten spring football teleconference, Wednesday.
Reiterating a theme of threatened attrition he first mentioned in the season-wrap press conference in December, Dantonio publicly challenged his team to continue to work and bond, or become roadkill.
“We’re going to come together as a football team and we’re all going to go in the same direction and if we’re not going in the same direction, those people will be left behind,” Dantonio said.
Wednesday’s briefing marked Dantonio’s second football-specific press conference since Feb. 1, as he has stayed away from cameras and microphones while the program faces the scrutiny of investigations into alleged sexual assault. Three unnamed players have been suspended since early-February as a result of the allegations, as the Ingham County Prosecutor’s office continues to investigate. No charges have been brought against the players. Curtis Blackwell, the MSU football team’s director of college advancement and performance, is also suspended as a result of allegations.
“Obviously there is a concern off the field that we had and I addressed that in an earlier press conference so we need to work through those situations,” Dantonio said. “There’s no question that we need to continue to solidify ourself in every respect. But as much as anything, when you have a young football team, you need to find leadership and that leadership needs to translate on the field and off the field as well. So that’s what we’re doing. We’re finding who our leaders are.”
Dantonio’s press briefing lasted for seven minutes. He fielded six questions.
RED-LOCK AND UPWARD TRENDS
During the short briefing, he complimented sophomore quarterback Brian Lewerke and sophomore offensive lineman Tyler Higby for continuing to come back strong from injuries which ended their 2016 seasons.
But the first question he fielded centered around suspensions. He was asked if any players who played in the Green-White Game on April 1 had been suspended.
Dantonio acknowledged that there have been new suspensions, but downplayed the significance.
“We red-lock people from time to time,” Dantonio said. “We use the term ‘red-lock’ for various things. So yes there has been. There’s constant people in and out of different situations. I think that’s normal.”
This admission led to continued negative headlines about the team although Dantonio was otherwise positive and progressive about the direction of the Spartans.
“There are some other guys that are trending upward, they’re just young players,” Dantonio said. “Guys like Tyler Higby, who was a redshirt freshman last year and is coming off a broken (ankle), has improved and is getting back to playing and he could be a very good player. And he’s just one of the guys. A lot of those type of things have occurred.
“Matt Sokol looks good at tight end. I think our running back situation is going to be strong.
“So there’s a lot of areas on our football team that have strength and there are some other areas that have youth. I think that’s natural. When you look around, every football team in the country has positions of strengths and weaknesses and you have to capitalize on your strengths.”
CONTINUED ATTRITION?
As for weaknesses, Dantonio is working to fix those - possibly by subtraction.
He said in December that he expected attrition, following a 3-9 season - his worst in 10 years as MSU’s head coach.
Dantonio revealed in late March that third-stringer Drake Martinez had opted to transfer out of the program. Former starter Jon Reschke announced his plans to transfer in March after admitting to making what he called “an insensitive and totally regrettable comment” involving a former teammate.
On Wednesday, Dantonio was asked how much more attrition he expected prior to the outset of summer camp in late July.
“That’s a tough thing to evaluate because people make decisions after spring ball relative to what they’re going to do,” Dantonio said. “Some people tend to change. I think that’s natural.
“I can’t put a number on that. All I can do is we are going to do the things we have to do to move forward as a program.”
SPRINGING FORWARD?
Michigan State played the earliest spring football game of any team in the Big Ten this year, playing the Green-White Game on April 1, earlier than ever in a calendar year for the program.
Also, for the first time ever, Michigan State had two more practices after the spring game.
With spring practice having officially concluded, Dantonio was asked if he saw the type of improvement he needed to see through 15 spring practices.
“Yeah, I think we did, “Dantonio said. “We have a young football team. I don’t think there is any question about that. When you have eight seniors on your team, scholarship players, you are going to be relatively young.
“But we have a very strong junior class. I’ve been impressed with our younger players as they’ve moved forward. Guys are getting a lot of reps. They improve. When you’re young, you improve. It’s the daily improvement. The learning curve is a little bit greater, so you see a little bit more drastic improvement as you go.”
Examples?
“I’ve been very impressed with our quarterback, Brian Lewerke,” Dantonio said. “He’s 215 pounds now. He’s bigger, he’s faster.”
LEWERKE 'CLEARLY' THE STARTER
Lewerke started two games last year at mid-season, but was lost for the year with a broken leg in the second half of Michigan State’s loss to Michigan.
He completed 54.4 percent of his passes last year for 381 yards with two TDs and one interception.
“He throws the ball, has great rhythm,” Dantonio said. “He’s clearly the starter heading into the off-season. I think that’s warranted.”
Lewerke was expected to be pushed by redshirt freshman Messiah de Weaver during the spring, and fifth-year senior Damion Terry. But injuries limited Terry and de Weaver in the spring.
Neither player saw action in the Green-White Game on April 1. Dantonio expanded on their injuries for the first time, Wednesday.
“Messiah de Weaver had some back issues so he missed the majority, really almost all of the spring,” Dantonio said. “So that set him back a little bit. But I believe he is a fast learner and he is going to have opportunities here as he moves forward.”
“Damion was able to do a lot of pass skel (7-on-7) work. He had a surgery coming out of the season so we had to hold him out of contact work. But he’s a fifth-year senior. He has a lot of experience and he can be a very good quarterback but he has to stay injury-free. But he got a lot of reps in terms of drill work and things of that nature.”
THE REST OF IT
Dantonio’s seven-minute and 21-second teleconference appearance was near the conference average on Wednesday, with new Indiana coach Tom Allen having the shortest teleconference at 5:53 and Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz having the longest at 11:03.
Dantonio was asked which state, other than his school’s home state, is the most important for his program in terms of recruiting. Not surprisingly, Dantonio said Ohio.
“For Michigan State, we tend to go into Ohio,” Dantonio said. “My background’s in Ohio. We understand the football that’s played there. They play a high level of football. Michigan State has always been a place where we’ve gotten a lot of players from Ohio.
“Last year we had over 30, I believe, from the state. It’s a very important recruiting area for us. We have had some outstanding players from there.”
Ironically, Dantonio gained a commitment from his latest Ohio recruit shortly after the teleconference when linebacker Edward Warinner of Powell (Ohio) Olentangy Liberty High School committed to the Spartans over West Virginia, Rutgers, Cincinnati and growing interest from Iowa.
Brian Lewerke heads into the off-season as the clear No. 1 at QB, Dantonio said.
My Dantonio article from today's press conference
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
- 2 Replies
Dantonio refrains from talking football, vows to 'do the right thing'
Jim Comparoni | Editor
EAST LANSING - Unable to speak about legal processes, and unwilling to talk about what he said were “trivial” matters of day-to-day football, Michigan State football coach Mark Dantonio met with media for the first time since allegations of sexual assault against three players arose in early February stemming from an incident in mid-January.
The case is in the hands of the Ingham County prosecutor’s office. No charges have been brought against the players.
The 11th-year football coach answered questions for 27 minutes but repeatedly refrained from offering specifics about the players involved in the alleged assault.
“I can’t comment on an investigation,” he said. “That’s not my place.
“This is an ongoing investigation. No charges have been brought. We want to honor that investigation and the process and respect it.”
As for his team, which is closing out its spring practice season this week and will play in the annual Green-White Game at 3 p.m. on Saturday at Spartan Stadium, Dantonio said: “Football, I don’t think is important enough to talk about right now. I think everybody understands how serious we are taking this. I hope everybody understands it is not business as usual.”
Dantonio had not met with media since his recruiting signing day press conference on Feb. 1. Dantonio usually meets with media at least once a week during spring practice and makes players and assistant coaches available for interviews to bring the public up to date on football happenings. Dantonio has shut down those interviews this year.
“We’re faced with this situation and I don’t want to minimize that in any way, so that’s why we have taken this action,” Dantonio said. “I didn’t want to talk about depth charts. (I) felt that was trivial. To have our players come out here and be interviewed and act like nothing is going on, I just thought that was inappropriate.”
The three players under investigation have been suspended from the Michigan State football team and have been removed from university housing, according to a release from MSU athletics director Mark Hollis in February. They are still enrolled in school, but their names have not been made public by the university or the prosecutor’s office.
The university announced the suspensions and acknowledged an investigation into sexual assault allegations on Feb. 9.
The university suspended Curtis Blackwell, the football program’s director of college advancement, on Feb. 9. The university has not confirmed whether Blackwell’s suspension is related to the investigation.
Michigan State hired an outside law firm, led by Rebecca Veidlinger, to investigate the university’s compliance with Title IX laws in relation to the incident and its aftermath.
MSU also hired the Cleveland, Ohio law firm Jones Day to investigate the football program staff members’ compliance with university policy in the handling of the incident.
“There are some players that are suspended,” Dantonio said on Tuesday. “I’ll just leave it at that.”
As for the decision not to reveal the names of the suspended players, Dantonio said “it’s a systematic approach by our university and myself. So we’re in agreement on that.”
Dantonio said the suspensions were made by MSU’s administration and the football program.
Dantonio wouldn’t speculate on how long the investigation may take, but “anticipated this would be finalized in terms of the investigative process” earlier.
So why speak to media about the situation on Tuesday?
“Because we have a spring football game on Saturday, because it’s a community event,” Dantonio said. “We wanted to come forward today and step out in the light a little bit.”
Dantonio said brief considerations was given to the possibility of canceling the Green-White Game, or keeping it closed to the public.
Dantonio only spoke about macro-aspects of the program on Tuesday.
“I think this is a time to reset our program as people and move forward,” Dantonio said. “When there is a crisis situation, my experience is that people collectively come together, identify the problem and find a solution. That's what we'll do. In doing that, you regain your focus, your centering and you process forward. That's what I'm here to do.
"I’ve stood up here in the highs and the lows. I’ve stood up here after winning the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten Championship. I’ve stood up here in very difficult times before. That’s never going to change.
“I’ve had tough times before, tough situations I’ve had to talk about here. It’s been quite awhile. But this is part of the job. There are no easy challenges. To me, this is part of the deal, this is part of the reason I was chosen as head football coach here, to lead in difficult times. Those are my intentions, and not to put a hat on and walk around and say, ‘Hey we won the Rose Bowl.’ There were no easy challenges when I came here.”
When asked if Blackwell’s suspension has had an impact on recruiting, Dantonio said: “We have closed ranks, picked up the pieces and recruiting has gone very, very well so far, but I again I don’t want to talk about aspects of football right now. I think that’s unfair.
“What I’ve tried to do is say, ‘Hey, football isn’t more important than what’s going on here.’ I don’t want to do that. We need to get to a point where we can talk about football, but at this point in time with the investigation not completely done, I don’t think that’s fair for me to talk about (football). We have a situation ongoing. I’m doing everything I can to cooperate with everybody involved with this, so that’s my focus. My focus is to get our guys together, coach them on the field, get them ready to play, but not make it too public where it sends a message that this isn’t that serious. This is serious. Extremely serious.”
“How do you correct it? Make sure it never happens again? That’s a tough question. All I can tell you is we educate our football team. We have people coming in front of them. We have people coming at them and talking to them in a very raw manner. It’s education. We try to address every facet, within our program, that we see as a threat to them. We talk a lot about them, about reputation and their reputation and their accountability and their responsibilities. But that doesn’t mean it always gets done. But we do our very, very best.
“I do my very best to protect our community, protect our environment, protect my family. The message that I would send to everybody out there is that I’m going to do the right thing to the best of my abilities.”
As for news items, Dantonio did reveal that third-string defensive back Drake Martinez has decided to transfer. Martinez’ decision is not related to the allegations. Dantonio acknowledged Martinez’ departure when asked if any further attrition had taken place within the program since his last press conference on Feb. 1.
Dantonio also said other players are suspended at this time "for other reasons."
Jim Comparoni | Editor
EAST LANSING - Unable to speak about legal processes, and unwilling to talk about what he said were “trivial” matters of day-to-day football, Michigan State football coach Mark Dantonio met with media for the first time since allegations of sexual assault against three players arose in early February stemming from an incident in mid-January.
The case is in the hands of the Ingham County prosecutor’s office. No charges have been brought against the players.
The 11th-year football coach answered questions for 27 minutes but repeatedly refrained from offering specifics about the players involved in the alleged assault.
“I can’t comment on an investigation,” he said. “That’s not my place.
“This is an ongoing investigation. No charges have been brought. We want to honor that investigation and the process and respect it.”
As for his team, which is closing out its spring practice season this week and will play in the annual Green-White Game at 3 p.m. on Saturday at Spartan Stadium, Dantonio said: “Football, I don’t think is important enough to talk about right now. I think everybody understands how serious we are taking this. I hope everybody understands it is not business as usual.”
Dantonio had not met with media since his recruiting signing day press conference on Feb. 1. Dantonio usually meets with media at least once a week during spring practice and makes players and assistant coaches available for interviews to bring the public up to date on football happenings. Dantonio has shut down those interviews this year.
“We’re faced with this situation and I don’t want to minimize that in any way, so that’s why we have taken this action,” Dantonio said. “I didn’t want to talk about depth charts. (I) felt that was trivial. To have our players come out here and be interviewed and act like nothing is going on, I just thought that was inappropriate.”
The three players under investigation have been suspended from the Michigan State football team and have been removed from university housing, according to a release from MSU athletics director Mark Hollis in February. They are still enrolled in school, but their names have not been made public by the university or the prosecutor’s office.
The university announced the suspensions and acknowledged an investigation into sexual assault allegations on Feb. 9.
The university suspended Curtis Blackwell, the football program’s director of college advancement, on Feb. 9. The university has not confirmed whether Blackwell’s suspension is related to the investigation.
Michigan State hired an outside law firm, led by Rebecca Veidlinger, to investigate the university’s compliance with Title IX laws in relation to the incident and its aftermath.
MSU also hired the Cleveland, Ohio law firm Jones Day to investigate the football program staff members’ compliance with university policy in the handling of the incident.
“There are some players that are suspended,” Dantonio said on Tuesday. “I’ll just leave it at that.”
As for the decision not to reveal the names of the suspended players, Dantonio said “it’s a systematic approach by our university and myself. So we’re in agreement on that.”
Dantonio said the suspensions were made by MSU’s administration and the football program.
Dantonio wouldn’t speculate on how long the investigation may take, but “anticipated this would be finalized in terms of the investigative process” earlier.
So why speak to media about the situation on Tuesday?
“Because we have a spring football game on Saturday, because it’s a community event,” Dantonio said. “We wanted to come forward today and step out in the light a little bit.”
Dantonio said brief considerations was given to the possibility of canceling the Green-White Game, or keeping it closed to the public.
Dantonio only spoke about macro-aspects of the program on Tuesday.
“I think this is a time to reset our program as people and move forward,” Dantonio said. “When there is a crisis situation, my experience is that people collectively come together, identify the problem and find a solution. That's what we'll do. In doing that, you regain your focus, your centering and you process forward. That's what I'm here to do.
"I’ve stood up here in the highs and the lows. I’ve stood up here after winning the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten Championship. I’ve stood up here in very difficult times before. That’s never going to change.
“I’ve had tough times before, tough situations I’ve had to talk about here. It’s been quite awhile. But this is part of the job. There are no easy challenges. To me, this is part of the deal, this is part of the reason I was chosen as head football coach here, to lead in difficult times. Those are my intentions, and not to put a hat on and walk around and say, ‘Hey we won the Rose Bowl.’ There were no easy challenges when I came here.”
When asked if Blackwell’s suspension has had an impact on recruiting, Dantonio said: “We have closed ranks, picked up the pieces and recruiting has gone very, very well so far, but I again I don’t want to talk about aspects of football right now. I think that’s unfair.
“What I’ve tried to do is say, ‘Hey, football isn’t more important than what’s going on here.’ I don’t want to do that. We need to get to a point where we can talk about football, but at this point in time with the investigation not completely done, I don’t think that’s fair for me to talk about (football). We have a situation ongoing. I’m doing everything I can to cooperate with everybody involved with this, so that’s my focus. My focus is to get our guys together, coach them on the field, get them ready to play, but not make it too public where it sends a message that this isn’t that serious. This is serious. Extremely serious.”
“How do you correct it? Make sure it never happens again? That’s a tough question. All I can tell you is we educate our football team. We have people coming in front of them. We have people coming at them and talking to them in a very raw manner. It’s education. We try to address every facet, within our program, that we see as a threat to them. We talk a lot about them, about reputation and their reputation and their accountability and their responsibilities. But that doesn’t mean it always gets done. But we do our very, very best.
“I do my very best to protect our community, protect our environment, protect my family. The message that I would send to everybody out there is that I’m going to do the right thing to the best of my abilities.”
As for news items, Dantonio did reveal that third-string defensive back Drake Martinez has decided to transfer. Martinez’ decision is not related to the allegations. Dantonio acknowledged Martinez’ departure when asked if any further attrition had taken place within the program since his last press conference on Feb. 1.
Dantonio also said other players are suspended at this time "for other reasons."