On some level, I think Friday night's result in Spartan Stadium was not that surprising. After all, MSU has seldom looks like a world-beater in Game 1 under Mark Dantonio, even in years that ended in double-digit wins. But, being down by a point with 5 minutes to go to a Mountain West team from somewhere other than Idaho? That was a bit disconcerting. Considering that MSU still had 5 minutes and only needed a field goal to win, I wan't that worried, but still... disconcerting. Sure, a lot of little things went wrong for MSU, There were mistakes, there were penalties, and there was a bad turn-over. We can expect that these things will likely get tighten up. But there was also an obvious problem with scoring in the red zone and stopping the Aggies in the red zone. The general play of both lines was not as dominant as we were hoping. Disconcerting. Still, a win is a win, and sometimes getting a good scare is the best way to properly identify problems so that they can get fixed. Getting the chance to have that experience and still come away with the "W," on some level may have been the best case scenario in the long run. Furthermore, one of the funny things about Week 1 is you are never quite sure how to interpret the results of any given game. Is MSU just not as good as we thought (at least right now)? Is Utah State just way better than we thought? Is it a little of both? Maybe so. Either way, there was certainly a lot of good to go with the bad on Friday night, and although there were a lot of disconcerting signals through the game, it is not time to worry just yet.
National Overview
Per my usual format, I have summarized all of this weekend's action into one figure comparing the margin of victory in each game to the opening Vegas spread in order to visualize the teams that did well (beat the spread by 10+ points in the upper left), the teams that did poorly, yet still won (in the lower right, but above the x-axis), and the teams that got upset (below the x-axis):
Honestly speaking, this was a very "normal" opening weekend. In my preview, I predicted around 9 upsets, and there were in fact 10 total, which are also summarized in the table below. The biggest upsets of the week (Cincinati over UCLA, BYU over Arizona, and Hawaii over Navy) all had spreads around 15, which is not that high. Getting 3 of those in a week is a little odd, but seeing one in any given week is completely normal. Incidentally, this does not count the 5 FBS teams that lost to FCS opponents (*cough* Kansas *cough*), as I do not track games against FCS opponents in any more detail than just making a note of the final score.
As for my algorithm, it had a good, but not great start, going 21-22 (49%) against the spread, but getting 3-2 (60%) for upsets, and a strong 6-3 (67%) for my highlighted covers. Ironically, ESPN's FPI exactly matched me, also going 21-22 ATS and 3-2 for upsets. Copycats...
Now, let's take our first spin around the country to take a look at the action in more detail, starting close to home.
Big Ten
Let's be honest, it was pretty much a perfect week for the Big Ten. Much like the Bowl season, every Big Ten team who played this weekend won, except one, and no one really likes those guys anyway. But, some teams certainly had a better weekend than others. In general, it was a really good weekend for the Big Ten West. Wisconsin crushed Western Kentucky. Iowa and Minnesota annihilated the spread against Northern Illinois and New Mexico State. Northwestern got a key road win at Purdue to solidify themselves as a legit contender on that side, and Nebraska got a surprise bye. It was really only Illinois that had a rough weekend, and even they managed to still pull out the tighter-than-expected win over Kent State.
In the East, things were a bit more interesting. The bottom half of the East actually had a pretty good weekend as well. Maryland scored one of the bigger upsets of the weekend by taking out Texas. (Steak. It's what for dinner). Indiana avoided the Week 1 road upset, and even Rutgers managed to beat the spread. But, it was oddly the top of the Big Ten East that had some problems. Ohio State put up over 70 and beat the spread against Oregon State, but the fact that they gave up 31 to one of the worst teams in all of the FBS is perhaps just a little bit disconcerting. We all know what happened in East Lansing and it seemed like Penn State must have seen that (along with some 2007 ESPN Classic) and thought, "hold my beer." If App State would have completed about one more pass, the Mountaineers would have added one more Big Ten pelt to their collection. Notably, Illinois, Penn State and MSU were the only three schools this week that failed to cover by more than 10 points, yet still won (see the results chart above). It would be an over-reaction to read too much into this in Week 1, but it should perhaps by slightly disconcerting for Big Ten fans.
And then there is Michigan. All I can say is, they still can't beat a rival, and they still can't beat a good team on the road. Why do they keep getting the benefit of the doubt? There are just the #SameOldWolverines.
SEC
In general, the SEC had pretty much the least disconcerting week of the Power 5 conferences. Everyone avoided any embarrassing losses to the FCS or the bottom half of the FBS, and the teams at the top dominated. Alabama crushed Louisville, LSU got a big upset over Miami, and Auburn won the marquee match-up with Washington. Ole Miss even managed to beat Texas Tech by 20, despite the spread suggesting the game should be a toss-up. The only blot on the conference's resume for the week was West Virginia's dismantling of the Wolverines of the SEC (AKA Tennessee) and the fact the Kentucky didn't cover against the Chippewas. That is seriously it. I know its early, but you can pretty much pencil in the SEC Champ for the Playoffs now.
ACC
Similar to the SEC, the ACC provided very little drama, at least not until Sunday and Monday night. Again, there were no embarrassing upsets, even if teams like NC State and Syracuse had a little bit of trouble putting their over-matched opponents away. Sure, Louisville got blitzed by Bama and UNC lost in Berkeley, but both of these results were expected. But, the race for the Coastal Division took a couple interesting turns on the back-half of the long weekend. First, LSU mauled Miami on Sunday, and then on Monday, the Hokies scalped the Seminoles in their own house. Believe it or not, VA Tech actually rose to the very top of my very data-sparse power rankings as a result. While I am not quite ready to pencil them into the playoffs just yet, I do feel a lot better about my preseason pick of a Clemson-VA Tech match-up in the ACC title game.
Big 12
While the SEC and ACC had good weeks, the Big 12 had a bit more trouble. Sure, Oklahoma must have got wind that I put them on upset alert, as they just destroyed C-USA favorite FAU. OK State, TCU, Baylor, and West Virginia also had big wins. But, the rest of the state of Texas and the state of Kansas had a bit of the rough weekend. We have already talked about Texas and Texas Tech's disconcerting losses to Maryland and Ole Miss. But, more disconcerting was Kansas's loss to Nicholls State and Kansas State getting taken to the brink by South Dakota. The Jayhawks loss in understandable, as they have been so bad for so long that their season ticket holders will often get elective root canals and practice doing their taxes on bye weeks just to keep in practice. But, K-State was supposed to be a borderline Big 12 contender. Maybe not so much.
Pac 12
And then... there's the Pac 12. As I look at the conference as a whole, I guess it wasn't all bad, especially for the Northern teams. Cal, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, Washington State, and Arizona State all won and even covered, some by a lot (most notably, MSU's next opponent, Arizona State). But, Pac 12 South favorite USC struggled a little with UNLV, who is abysmal, and Arizona and UCLA both got upset by BYU and Cincinnati, respectively, and neither of those teams was ranked in the Top 80 in the preseason. But, the most disconcerting result was Washington's loss to Auburn. The Huskies didn't get blown out, but as I mentioned in the preview, there just aren't that many other chances on the schedule for the West Coasters to impress the selection committee. For a conference that has struggled to make the playoffs anyway, this was not a good start at all. The only thing that could have made it worse is if Notre Dame would have lost as well, and then the whole conference would have really been behind the eight-ball.
Independents / Group of Five
The biggest result outside of the Power 5 this week was obviously Notre Dame's win over Michigan in a battle of (as Mike Tirico put it) "two legendary programs." That seems like an apt description, as much like the Loch Ness Monster and Big Foot, most fans have heard about how good they are, but no one has actually seen it. For the conference-less Irish, they clearly need to finish no worse than 11-1 to even sniff the Playoffs, unless there is some serious attrition in the P5. So, avoiding a loss in Week 1 was absolutely critical. The Irish now have 3 pretty soft opponents in a row before the next big test when Stanford comes to town on September 29th. By then, we will all have a much better idea of who is actually good and who is not, and the Irish's real playoff chances will be quite a bit more clear.
As for the Group of Five, there were no major upsets, although Temple, UTEP, East Carolina and San Jose State must join Kansas in the "we lost to an FCS squad" walk of shame. But, there were two notable positive results, which were Cincinnati's upset of UCLA, Hawaii's surprising upset of Navy, and FBS newbie Liberty's dismantling of Old Dominion by 42 points, despite being 4.5-point underdogs. Woof. I suppose those results are more on the disconcerting side if you happen to be a Navy, Old Dominion or UCLA fan.
That is all for now. Stay tuned for the Week 2 Preview in a few days.
National Overview
Per my usual format, I have summarized all of this weekend's action into one figure comparing the margin of victory in each game to the opening Vegas spread in order to visualize the teams that did well (beat the spread by 10+ points in the upper left), the teams that did poorly, yet still won (in the lower right, but above the x-axis), and the teams that got upset (below the x-axis):
Honestly speaking, this was a very "normal" opening weekend. In my preview, I predicted around 9 upsets, and there were in fact 10 total, which are also summarized in the table below. The biggest upsets of the week (Cincinati over UCLA, BYU over Arizona, and Hawaii over Navy) all had spreads around 15, which is not that high. Getting 3 of those in a week is a little odd, but seeing one in any given week is completely normal. Incidentally, this does not count the 5 FBS teams that lost to FCS opponents (*cough* Kansas *cough*), as I do not track games against FCS opponents in any more detail than just making a note of the final score.
As for my algorithm, it had a good, but not great start, going 21-22 (49%) against the spread, but getting 3-2 (60%) for upsets, and a strong 6-3 (67%) for my highlighted covers. Ironically, ESPN's FPI exactly matched me, also going 21-22 ATS and 3-2 for upsets. Copycats...
Now, let's take our first spin around the country to take a look at the action in more detail, starting close to home.
Big Ten
Let's be honest, it was pretty much a perfect week for the Big Ten. Much like the Bowl season, every Big Ten team who played this weekend won, except one, and no one really likes those guys anyway. But, some teams certainly had a better weekend than others. In general, it was a really good weekend for the Big Ten West. Wisconsin crushed Western Kentucky. Iowa and Minnesota annihilated the spread against Northern Illinois and New Mexico State. Northwestern got a key road win at Purdue to solidify themselves as a legit contender on that side, and Nebraska got a surprise bye. It was really only Illinois that had a rough weekend, and even they managed to still pull out the tighter-than-expected win over Kent State.
In the East, things were a bit more interesting. The bottom half of the East actually had a pretty good weekend as well. Maryland scored one of the bigger upsets of the weekend by taking out Texas. (Steak. It's what for dinner). Indiana avoided the Week 1 road upset, and even Rutgers managed to beat the spread. But, it was oddly the top of the Big Ten East that had some problems. Ohio State put up over 70 and beat the spread against Oregon State, but the fact that they gave up 31 to one of the worst teams in all of the FBS is perhaps just a little bit disconcerting. We all know what happened in East Lansing and it seemed like Penn State must have seen that (along with some 2007 ESPN Classic) and thought, "hold my beer." If App State would have completed about one more pass, the Mountaineers would have added one more Big Ten pelt to their collection. Notably, Illinois, Penn State and MSU were the only three schools this week that failed to cover by more than 10 points, yet still won (see the results chart above). It would be an over-reaction to read too much into this in Week 1, but it should perhaps by slightly disconcerting for Big Ten fans.
And then there is Michigan. All I can say is, they still can't beat a rival, and they still can't beat a good team on the road. Why do they keep getting the benefit of the doubt? There are just the #SameOldWolverines.
SEC
In general, the SEC had pretty much the least disconcerting week of the Power 5 conferences. Everyone avoided any embarrassing losses to the FCS or the bottom half of the FBS, and the teams at the top dominated. Alabama crushed Louisville, LSU got a big upset over Miami, and Auburn won the marquee match-up with Washington. Ole Miss even managed to beat Texas Tech by 20, despite the spread suggesting the game should be a toss-up. The only blot on the conference's resume for the week was West Virginia's dismantling of the Wolverines of the SEC (AKA Tennessee) and the fact the Kentucky didn't cover against the Chippewas. That is seriously it. I know its early, but you can pretty much pencil in the SEC Champ for the Playoffs now.
ACC
Similar to the SEC, the ACC provided very little drama, at least not until Sunday and Monday night. Again, there were no embarrassing upsets, even if teams like NC State and Syracuse had a little bit of trouble putting their over-matched opponents away. Sure, Louisville got blitzed by Bama and UNC lost in Berkeley, but both of these results were expected. But, the race for the Coastal Division took a couple interesting turns on the back-half of the long weekend. First, LSU mauled Miami on Sunday, and then on Monday, the Hokies scalped the Seminoles in their own house. Believe it or not, VA Tech actually rose to the very top of my very data-sparse power rankings as a result. While I am not quite ready to pencil them into the playoffs just yet, I do feel a lot better about my preseason pick of a Clemson-VA Tech match-up in the ACC title game.
Big 12
While the SEC and ACC had good weeks, the Big 12 had a bit more trouble. Sure, Oklahoma must have got wind that I put them on upset alert, as they just destroyed C-USA favorite FAU. OK State, TCU, Baylor, and West Virginia also had big wins. But, the rest of the state of Texas and the state of Kansas had a bit of the rough weekend. We have already talked about Texas and Texas Tech's disconcerting losses to Maryland and Ole Miss. But, more disconcerting was Kansas's loss to Nicholls State and Kansas State getting taken to the brink by South Dakota. The Jayhawks loss in understandable, as they have been so bad for so long that their season ticket holders will often get elective root canals and practice doing their taxes on bye weeks just to keep in practice. But, K-State was supposed to be a borderline Big 12 contender. Maybe not so much.
Pac 12
And then... there's the Pac 12. As I look at the conference as a whole, I guess it wasn't all bad, especially for the Northern teams. Cal, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, Washington State, and Arizona State all won and even covered, some by a lot (most notably, MSU's next opponent, Arizona State). But, Pac 12 South favorite USC struggled a little with UNLV, who is abysmal, and Arizona and UCLA both got upset by BYU and Cincinnati, respectively, and neither of those teams was ranked in the Top 80 in the preseason. But, the most disconcerting result was Washington's loss to Auburn. The Huskies didn't get blown out, but as I mentioned in the preview, there just aren't that many other chances on the schedule for the West Coasters to impress the selection committee. For a conference that has struggled to make the playoffs anyway, this was not a good start at all. The only thing that could have made it worse is if Notre Dame would have lost as well, and then the whole conference would have really been behind the eight-ball.
Independents / Group of Five
The biggest result outside of the Power 5 this week was obviously Notre Dame's win over Michigan in a battle of (as Mike Tirico put it) "two legendary programs." That seems like an apt description, as much like the Loch Ness Monster and Big Foot, most fans have heard about how good they are, but no one has actually seen it. For the conference-less Irish, they clearly need to finish no worse than 11-1 to even sniff the Playoffs, unless there is some serious attrition in the P5. So, avoiding a loss in Week 1 was absolutely critical. The Irish now have 3 pretty soft opponents in a row before the next big test when Stanford comes to town on September 29th. By then, we will all have a much better idea of who is actually good and who is not, and the Irish's real playoff chances will be quite a bit more clear.
As for the Group of Five, there were no major upsets, although Temple, UTEP, East Carolina and San Jose State must join Kansas in the "we lost to an FCS squad" walk of shame. But, there were two notable positive results, which were Cincinnati's upset of UCLA, Hawaii's surprising upset of Navy, and FBS newbie Liberty's dismantling of Old Dominion by 42 points, despite being 4.5-point underdogs. Woof. I suppose those results are more on the disconcerting side if you happen to be a Navy, Old Dominion or UCLA fan.
That is all for now. Stay tuned for the Week 2 Preview in a few days.
